• Membrane and Water Treatment
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.65-76
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• 2023

Given the limited water resources and the presence of multiple decision makers with different and usually conflicting objectives in the exploitation of water resources systems, especially dam's reservoirs; therefore, the decision to determine the optimal allocation of reservoir water among decision-makers and stakeholders is a difficult task. In this study, by combining a fuzzy VIKOR technique or fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (FMCDM) and the Young's bilateral bargaining model, a new method was developed to determine the optimal quantitative and qualitative water allocation of dam's reservoir water with the aim of increasing the utility of decision makers and stakeholders and reducing the conflicts among them. In this study, by identifying the stakeholders involved in the exploitation of the dam reservoir and determining their utility, the optimal points on trade-off curve with quantitative and qualitative objectives presented by Mojarabi et al. (2019) were ranked based on the quantitative and qualitative criteria, and economic, social and environmental factors using the fuzzy VIKOR technique. In the proposed method, the weights of the criteria were determined by each decision maker using the entropy method. The results of a fuzzy decision-making method demonstrated that the Young's bilateral bargaining model was developed to determine the point agreed between the decisions makers on the trade-off curve. In the proposed method, (a) the opinions of decision makers and stakeholders were considered according to different criteria in the exploitation of the dam reservoir, (b) because the decision makers considered the different factors in addition to quantitative and qualitative criteria, they were willing to participate in bargaining and reconsider their ideals, (c) due to the use of a fuzzy-logic based decision-making approach and considering different criteria, the utility of all decision makers was close to each other and the scope of bargaining became smaller, leading to an increase in the possibility of reaching an agreement in a shorter time period using game theory and (d) all qualitative judgments without considering explicitness of the decision makers were applied to the model using the fuzzy logic. The results of using the proposed method for the optimal exploitation of Iran's 15-Khordad dam reservoir over a 30-year period (1968-1997) showed the possibility of the agreement on the water allocation of the monthly total dissolved solids (TDS)=1,490 mg/L considering the different factors based on the opinions of decision makers and reducing conflicts among them.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.73-82
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• 2006

In this study, the hydraulic channel routing model is applied to analyze water surface elevation pattern on the Nakdong river in flood cases. The procedure to apply FLDWAV model is presented to solve the Saint-Venant Equations by using four points implicit finite differential scheme. And the flood travel time is studied for reasonable dam management. As this results, variable assumption and constraint are followed to evaluate flood travelling time by hydraulic model. A guideline of reasonable dam's decision making considering downstream effect is showed by this constructed model, and scientific hydraulic analysis is possible by it.

• Membrane and Water Treatment
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.421-434
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• 2018

Decision-makers have different and sometimes conflicting goals with utilities in operating dam reservoirs. As repeated interactions exist between decision-makers in the long-term, and the utility of each decision-making organization is affected not only by its selected strategy, but also by other rivals' strategies; selecting and prioritizing optimum strategies from a decision maker's point of view are of great importance while interacting with others. In this paper, a model based on a fuzzy set theory, for determining the priority of decision-makers' strategies in optimal qualitative-quantitative operation management of dam reservoir is presented. The fuzzy priority matrix is developed via defining membership functions of a fuzzy set for each decision maker's strategies, so that all uncertainties are taken into account. This matrix includes priorities assigned to possible combination for other decision makers' strategies in bargaining with each player's viewpoint. Here, the 15-Khordad Dam located in the central part of Iran, suffering from low water quality, was studied in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the model. Then, the range of quality of water withdrawal agreed by all decision-makers was determined using the prioritization matrix based on fuzzy logic. The results showed that the model proposed in the study had high effectiveness model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.285-288
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• 2002

For real-time flood forecasting and effective control flood at the Youngsan estuary dam, the Flood Forecasting and Control User Interface System II (FFCUS II) has been developed. This paper describes the features and application of FFCUS II. FFCUS II is composed of the database management subsystem, the model subsystem, and the graphic user interface. The database management subsyem collects rainfall data and stream flow data, updates, processes, and searches the data. The model subsystem predicts the inflow hydrograph, the tide, forecasts flood hydrograph, and simulates the release rate from the sluice gates. The graphic user interface subsystem aids the user's decision-making process by displaying the operation results of the database management subsystem and model subsystem.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.171-171
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• 2020

Decision making strategies should consider both adaptiveness and robustness in order to deal with two main characteristics of climate change: non-stationarity and deep uncertainty. Especially, robust strategies are different from traditional optimal strategies in the sense that they are satisfactory over a wider range of uncertainty and may act as a key when confronting climate change. In this study, a new framework named Robust Stochastic Dynamic Programming (R-SDP) is proposed, which couples previously developed robust optimization (RO) into the objective function and constraint of SDP. Two main approaches of RO, feasibility robustness and solution robustness, are considered in the optimization algorithm and consequently, three models to be tested are developed: conventional-SDP (CSDP), R-SDP-Feasibility (RSDP-F), and R-SDP-Solution (RSDP-S). The developed models were used to derive optimal monthly release rules in a single reservoir, and multiple simulations of the derived monthly policy under inflow scenarios with varying mean and standard deviations are undergone. Simulation results were then evaluated with a wide range of evaluation metrics from reliability, resiliency, vulnerability to additional robustness measures. Evaluation results were finally visualized with advanced visualization tools that are used in multi-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework. As a result, RSDP-F and RSDP-S models yielded more risk averse, or conservative, results than the CSDP model, and a trade-off relationship between traditional and robustness metrics was discovered.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.21 no.10
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• pp.11-16
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• 2020

Korea's agricultural reservoir is one of the country's major infrastructures and plays an important role in people's lives. However, aging reservoirs are a risk for life and property. Currently, large and small dams and reservoirs have been constructed nationwide for more than 40 years of aging. Dams and reservoirs built nationwide are managed by various institutions. Therefore, it is difficult to manage all dams and reservoirs due to cost and time. Managers in the field with less management personnel and lack of expertise should be able to quickly identify risk factors for multiple reservoirs. In this study, risk factors such as seepage, leakage, settlement slide, crack and erosion were selected. To assess the risk of the items, we used the analytical hierarchical process (AHP), one of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. The analysis showed that seepage has the greatest impact on reservoir collapse. It is judged that the priority of detailed diagnosis can be determined by evaluating the risk of dam reservoir collapse in a convenient way in advance using the calculated weight.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.67-72
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• 2003

Infrastructure asset management is a methodology for programming infrastructure capital investments and adjusting infrastructure service provision to fulfil established performance, considering the life-cycle perspective of infrastructure. In this study, the methodologies for infrastructure asset management system implemented in sewer management system, bridge management system, pavement and highway management system, and embankment dam management system are described with focus on the system in U.S. As the major methodology to support the decision-making for asset mangers to better allocate the limited funds to the area needing it the most. various demand forecasting methodologies used in wastewater, water, transportation, electricity, and construction are also introduced for their applicability towards infrastructure asset management.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1135-1148
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• 2018

Previous studies on reservoir operation have been assumed that the climate in the future would be similar to that in the past. However, in the presence of climate non-stationarity, Robust Optimization (RO) which finds the feasible solutions under broader uncertainty is necessary. RO improves the existing optimization method by adding a robust term to the objective function that controls the uncertainty inherent due to input data instability. This study proposed Robust-SDP that combines Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) and RO to estimate dam operation rules while coping with climate non-stationarity. The future inflow series that reflect climate non-stationarity were synthetically generated. We then evaluated the capacity of the dam operation rules obtained from the past inflow series based on six evaluation indicators and two decision support schemes. Although Robust-SDP was successful in reducing the incidence of extreme water scarcity events under climate non-stationarity, there was a trade-off between the number of extreme water scarcity events and the water scarcity ratio. Thus, it is proposed that decision-makers choose their optimal rules in reference to the evaluation results and decision support illustrations.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.22 no.8
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• pp.965-977
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• 2013

Reliable long-term streamflow forecasting is invaluable for water resource planning and management which allocates water supply according to the demand of water users. It is necessary to get probabilistic forecasts to establish risk-based reservoir operation policies. Probabilistic forecasts may be useful for the users who assess and manage risks according to decision-making responding forecasting results. Probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to Andong dam is performed and assessed using selected predictors from sea surface temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height data. Categorical probability forecast by Piechota's method and logistic regression analysis, and probability forecast by conditional probability density function are used to forecast seasonal inflow. Kernel density function is used in categorical probability forecast by Piechota's method and probability forecast by conditional probability density function. The results of categorical probability forecasts are assessed by Brier skill score. The assessment reveals that the categorical probability forecasts are better than the reference forecasts. The results of forecasts using conditional probability density function are assessed by qualitative approach and transformed categorical probability forecasts. The assessment of the forecasts which are transformed to categorical probability forecasts shows that the results of the forecasts by conditional probability density function are much better than those of the forecasts by Piechota's method and logistic regression analysis except for winter season data.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.spc1
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• pp.1095-1105
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• 2021

The advancement of dam operation is further required due to the upcoming rainy season, typhoons, or torrential rains. Besides, physical models based on specific rules may sometimes have limitations in controlling the release discharge of dam due to inherent uncertainty and complex factors. This study aims to forecast the water level of the nearest station to the dam multi-timestep-ahead and evaluate the availability when it makes a decision for a release discharge of dam based on LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) of deep learning. The LSTM model was trained and tested on eight data sets with a 1-hour temporal resolution, including primary data used in the dam operation and downstream water level station data about 13 years (2009~2021). The trained model forecasted the water level time series divided by the six lead times: 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18-hours, and compared and analyzed with the observed data. As a result, the prediction results of the 1-hour ahead exhibited the best performance for all cases with an average accuracy of MAE of 0.01m, RMSE of 0.015 m, and NSE of 0.99, respectively. In addition, as the lead time increases, the predictive performance of the model tends to decrease slightly. The model may similarly estimate and reliably predicts the temporal pattern of the observed water level. Thus, it is judged that the LSTM model could produce predictive data by extracting the characteristics of complex hydrological non-linear data and can be used to determine the amount of release discharge from the dam when simulating the operation of the dam.