• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.9
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• pp.825-838
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• 2014

The stationary Markov chain model has been widely used as a daily rainfall simulation model. A main assumption of the stationary Markov model is that statistical characteristics do not change over time and do not have any trends. In other words, the stationary Markov chain model for daily rainfall simulation essentially can not incorporate any changes in mean or variance into the model. Here we develop a Non-stationary hidden Markov chain model (NHMM) based stochastic downscaling scheme for simulating the daily rainfall sequences, using general circulation models (GCMs) as inputs. It has been acknowledged that GCMs perform well with respect to annual and seasonal variation at large spatial scale and they stand as one of the primary sources for obtaining forecasts. The proposed model is applied to daily rainfall series at three stations in Nakdong watershed. The model showed a better performance in reproducing most of the statistics associated with daily and seasonal rainfall. In particular, the proposed model provided a significant improvement in reproducing the extremes. It was confirmed that the proposed model could be used as a downscaling model for the purpose of generating plausible daily rainfall scenarios if elaborate GCM forecasts can used as a predictor. Also, the proposed NHMM model can be applied to climate change studies if GCM based climate change scenarios are used as inputs.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.231-239
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• 2013

To identify seasonal and latitudinal variations of F2 layer during magnetic storm, we examine the change of daily averages of foF2 observed at Kokubunji and Hobart during high (2000~2002) and low (2006~2008) solar activity intervals. It is found that geomagnetic activity has a different effect on the ionospheric F2-layer electron density variation for different seasons and different latitudes. We, thus, investigate how the change of geomagnetic activity affects the ionospheric F2-layer electron density with season and latitude. For this purpose, two magnetic storms occurred in equinox (31 March 2001) and solstice (20 November 2003) seasons are selected. Then we investigate foF2, which are observed at Kokubunji, Townsville, Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart, Dst index, Ap index, and AE index for the two magnetic storm periods. These observatories have similar geomagnetic longitude, but have different latitude. Furthermore, we investigate the relation between the foF2 and the [O]/[$N_2$] ratio and TEC variations during 19-22 November 2003 magnetic storm period. As a result, we find that the latitudinal variations of [O]/[$N_2$] ratio and TEC are closely related with the latitudinal variation of foF2. Therefore, we conclude that the seasonal and latitudinal variations of foF2 during magnetic storm are caused by the seasonal and latitudinal variations of mean meridional circulation of the thermosphere, particularly upwelling and downwelling of neutral atmosphere during magnetic storm.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.151-151
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• 2018

The present study is aimed to quantifying the uncertainty in the general circulation model (GCM) selection and its impacts on hydrology studies in the basins. For this reason, 13 GCMs was selected among the 26 GCM models of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) scenarios. Then, the climate data and hydrologic data with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the best model (INMCM4) and worst model (HadGEM2-AO) were compared to understand the uncertainty associated with GCM models. In order to project the runoff, the Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was driven to simulate daily river discharge by using daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature as inputs of this model. For simulating the discharge, the model has been calibrated and validated for daily data. Root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were applied as evaluation criteria. Then parameters of the model were applied for the periods 2011-2040, and 2070-2099 to project the future discharge the five large basins of South Korea. Then, uncertainty caused by projected temperature, precipitation and runoff changes were compared in seasonal and annual time scale for two future periods and RCPs compared to the reference period (1976-2005). The findings of this study indicated that more caution will be needed for selecting the GCMs and using the results of the climate change analysis.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.546-553
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• 2013

A clear increase in the average annual temperature is observed worldwide, and climate changes take place in response to that increase. This affects not only the ecosystem, but also to mankind. Of all those aspects of climate change, people are especially interested in the length of each season, and people acknowledge that the duration of spring and fall has been shortened over the past several years. Still, it is difficult to observe this kind of phenomenon with the simple analysis of dividing the seasons and calculating the duration. Therefore, this study attempted to set up a more intuitive standard which well reflects the current situation. This study also divided the daily climate into 4 states using the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Moreover, using the Hidden Markov Model, this study calculated the duration of each season and analyzed its tendency based on the daily temperature data of the last 53 years (1960~2012). According to the result, the duration of spring and fall showed mild decreasing tendency over the past 53 years, and the duration of fall decreased even more during the past 30 years in the Korean peninsula. After 1960, the start of spring was advanced, which decreased the length of winter for about 11 days. On the other hand, the duration of summer increased for about 25 days, which is consistent with the worldwide tendency of temperature increase.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.687-695
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• 2009

The Bayesian multiple change-point estimation has been applied to the daily means of ozone and PM10 data in Seoul for the period 1999. We focus on the detection of multiple change-points in the ozone and PM10 bivariate vectors by evaluating the posterior probabilities and Bayesian information criterion(BIC) using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo(SAMC) algorithm. The result gives 5 change-points of mean vectors of ozone and PM10, which are related with the seasonal characteristics.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.41 no.4 s.115
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• pp.435-456
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• 2006

This study examines the long-term spatial patterns and recent trends of seasonal onsets and durations defined by daily temperatures in South Korea for the period 1973-2004. Spatially, spring and winter onset dates show approximately 44 day and 63 day maximum difference respectively between south and north (Seongsanpo to Daegwallryeong) attributable to the impacts of latitudes and altitudes. In contrast, summer onset, which is more affected by proximity to oceans and altitudes than by latitudes, begins earlier in interior low elevated areas than in the coastal areas but earliest at higher latitudes than Jeiu Island. Five climatic types regarding the seasonal cycles in South Korea are spatially clustered according to the combination of longer seasonal durations. As a reflection of recent climate changes on seasonal cycles in South Korea, winter duration was shortened by 10 days during the post-1988 period due to a late winter onset of 4 days and an early spring onset of 6 days. The winter reduction began in the southern regions of the Korean Peninsula in the mid-1980s and spread northward during the 1990s period, ultimately appearing everywhere. In urbanized cities, where much of the surface is covered with asphalt or concrete, the winter reduction was intensified and summer duration was locally incremented. The reduced winter duration in recent decades shows significant teleconnections with variations of geopotential height (925hPa) in the eastern Arctic region ($0-90^{\circ}E$, $65-85^{\circ}N$) during the cold season. The reduction in winter duration in South Korea agrees with results in overall global warming trends as a climate change signal.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.38 no.4 s.114
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• pp.439-444
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• 2005

The environmental quality of the middle-reach of the Yahagi River has deteriorated in recent years. The nutrient dynamics within the reach were investigated to explain the changes. Seasonal pattern of $NO_3\;^--N$ concentration tended to stay low from April or May through July or August and then increased till winter or early spring, although there were peaks during high flow periods in mid-September, 2000 and late-August, 2001. No clear seasonal changes were observed in $PO_4\;^{3-}-P$ concentration. In the bimonthly records from 1980-2002, the DIN concentrations on January and March were higher than other months whereas the average daily flows on January and March were lower than they were in other months. The mean DIN concentration showed a high negative correlation with the median of average daily flow. In the past 50 years, the average concentration of DIN (excluding nitrite) was 0.21 mg $L^{-1}$ in 1952-1953. The concentration was about twice this high around 1980, and it is about three times this high at present. On the other hand, the average concentration of $PO_4\;^{3-}-P$ was below the limit of detection in 1952-53. However, it increased to almost 0.03 mg $L^{-1}$ around 1980, then decreased to approximately 0.016mg $L^{-1}$ at present. Our results suggest that the increasing DIN concentration is one of the causes of environmental change in the Yahagi River. We conclude that controlling the DIN concentration is essential for improving the river environment.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.461-473
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• 2015

Jinhae Bay located in the southern of Korean Peninsular is an important spawning area in Korea. By some preliminary studies it was measured several times that adult Pacific codes (Gadus microcephalus) were passed (swimming layer: 15 to 18 m) over a submerged sea tunnel (sea bottom: about 30 m) rather than another immigration route when the Pacific codes were tagged surgically with an acoustic transmitters and released inside of the Bay. There is a possibility that the Pacific codes and the other fishes use the route on the sea tunnel as an immigration route are affected by a human-generated underwater noise around the sea tunnel due to the sea tunnel traffic. On this study the 25-hour measurements of the underwater noise level by water layer were conducted with a hydrophone attached on a portable CTD and an underwater noise level meter during four seasons, and the acoustical characteristics of the underwater noise was analyzed. The mean traffic volume for one hour at the sea tunnel on the spring was shown the largest value of 1,408 [standard deviation (SD): 855] vehicles among four seasons measurement. The next one was ordered on the autumn [1,145 (SD: 764)], winter [947 (SD: 598)] and summer [931 (SD: 558)] vehicles. Small size vehicle was formed 84.3% of the traffic volume, and ultra-small size, medium size, large size and extra-large size of the vehicle were taken possession of 8.7%, 3.2%, 2.0% and 1.8%, respectively. On the daily change of the noise level in vertical during four seasons the noise level of 5 m-layer was shown the highest value of 121.2 (SD: 3.6) dB (re $1{\mu}Pa$), the next one was 10 m-layer [120.7 (SD: 3.5)], 2 m- and 15 m-layer [120.3 (SD: 3.5 to 3.7)] and 1 m-layer [119.2 (SD: 3.6)] dB (re $1{\mu}Pa$). In relation with the seasonal change of the noise level the average noise level measured during autumn was shown the highest value of 123.9 (SD: 2.6) dB (re $1{\mu}Pa$), the next was during summer [121.4 (SD: 3.2)], spring [118.0 (SD: 3.4)] and winter [116.5 (SD: 5.1)] dB (re $1{\mu}Pa$). In results of eigenray computation when the real bathymetry data (complicate shape of sea bed) was applied the average number of eigenray was 2.68 times (eigenrays: 11.03 rays) higher than those of model bathymetry (flat and slightly sloped sea bottom). When the real bathymetric data toward inside (water depth becomes shallow according to a distance between the source of noise and hydrophone) of the Bay was applied on the eigenrays calculation the number of the eigenray was 1.31 times (eigenrays: 12.49 rays) larger than the real bathymetric data toward outside (water depth becomes deep with respect to the distance). But when the model bathymetric data toward inside of the Bay was applied the number of the eigenray was 1.05 times (eigenrays: 4.21 rays) larger than the model bathymetric data toward outside.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.9-16
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• 2013

Coastal sand dune area is an important ecosystem as an ecotone which is located between coastal area and terrestrial area. In order to understand the sand dune ecosystem in terms of its habitat characteristics, micrometeorological analysis was carried out in a coastal sand dune in Hakampo, Taeanhaean National Park, Korea. Micrometeorological measurements were made to monitor air and soil temperatures, relative humidity, soil water content, rainfall, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind direction. In contrary to a forest ecosystem, the coastal sand dune grassland ecosystem was relatively hotter and very humid with heavy rainfalls concentrated between June and July. The seasonal change of daily mean soil temperature was greater than that of air temperature by $2{\sim}3^{\circ}C$. Daily mean soil water content was less than 10% throughout the year. Also, the maximum wind speed of 156.7 m $s^{-1}$ was recorded on 7 October 2011. The observed seasonal wind direction was different from those observed at Seosan by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). To better understand the habitat characteristics in a costal sand dune grassland ecosystem, long-term multi-year measurements are needed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.11
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• pp.933-951
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• 2009

Climate change of global warming may affect the water circulation in Korea. Rainfall is occurred with complex of multiple climatic indices. Therefore, the rainfall is one of the most significant index due to climate change in the process of water circulation. In this research, multiple time series data of rainfall events were extracted to represent the rainfall characteristics. In addition, the occurrence of rainfall time series analyzed by annual, seasonal and monthly data. Analysis method used change analysis of mean and standard deviation and trend analysis. Also, changes in rainfall characteristics and the relative error was calculated during the last 10 years for comparison with past data. At the results, significant statistical results weren't showed by randomness of rainfall data. However, amount of rainfall generally increased last 10 years, and number of raining days had trend of decrease. In addition, seasonal and monthly changes in the rainfall characteristics can be found to appear differently.