• 한국농촌생활과학회지
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.173-183
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• 1995

On the basis of intertemporal utility maximization theory and stock-adjustment hypothesis, a multivariate stock-adjustment credit demand model, which included on- and cross-adjustment effects of credit and cross-adjustment effects of assets was developed. With weighted four-year panel data from 1983 and 1986 Surveys of Consumer Finances, the theoretical model was tested using two-stage estimation method for tobit model. The results supported the hypothesis that, in general, the household demand for a certain type of credit was related to the demand for other types of credit and asset components in the portfolio. The household demand for mortgage credit, installment credit and revolving credit card debt depended not only on the disequilibrium of itself but on the disequilibrium of the other types of credit and asset components in the portfolio. The household demand for non-installment credit was related not to the disequilibrium of itself and other types of credit but to the disequilibria of asset components in the portfolio.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.391-423
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• 2016

By examining the relationship between private credit growth and the possibility of credit risk while focusing on international capital in 21 countries over the period 2000:1Q-2015:2Q, this paper shows that the impact of private credit growth on credit risk is apparent under the high ratio of capital inflows, and its impact on credit risk in the seven Asian countries is even stronger. And the possibility of credit risk caused by private credit is mainly coming from portfolio inflows rather than direct inflows. Finally, portfolio inflows strengthen the positive relationship between credit excess and credit risk in Asian countries, and this trend is seen more in these after the global financial crisis. Taken together, the stronger positive relationship between credit excess and credit risk can be strengthen under the massive portfolio inflows in particular in the seven Asian countries such as Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.37-50
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• 2014

Banking institutions have been facing variety of difficulties but the major cause of serious banking problems relates to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Although credit risk is an important factor that financial institutions should cope with, but the determinants of measuring credit risk have been studied less. This paper attempts to explore the determinants of credit risk measurement and to identify the factors that contribute to credit risk measurement practices in Indian banks and to compare credit risk measurement practices followed by Indian public and private sector banks, the empirical study has been conducted and views of employees of various banks have been tested using statistical tools. This study explored the phenomenon from different perspectives and revealed that single-name credit risk measurement and portfolio credit risk measurement are the key components that contribute to credit risk measurement in Indian banks. From the descriptive and analytical results, it can be concluded that Indian banks efficiently measure credit risk. The results also indicate that there is a significant difference between the Indian public and private sector banks in single-name credit risk measurement while, these banks do not significantly differ in portfolio credit risk measurement aspect.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.327-347
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• 2020

We consider a credit portfolio with highly skewed exposures. In the portfolio, small number of obligors have very high exposures compared to the others. For the Bernoulli mixture model with highly skewed exposures, we propose a new importance sampling scheme to estimate the tail loss probability over a threshold and the corresponding expected shortfall. We stratify the sample space of the default events into two subsets. One consists of the events that the obligors with heavy exposures default simultaneously. We expect that typical tail loss events belong to the set. In our proposed scheme, the tail loss probability and the expected shortfall corresponding to this type of events are estimated by a conditional Monte Carlo, which results in variance reduction. We analyze the properties of the proposed scheme mathematically. In numerical study, the performance of the proposed scheme is compared with an existing importance sampling method.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.91-100
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• 2000

과거 국내금융기관의 신용공여는 소수 대기업과 그들의 계열사 및 일부 업종에 집중되었기 때문에 국내금융기관은 위험이 분산된 대출포트폴리오를 소유하지 못했었다. 이번 IMF 금융위기는 다수의 부실채권을 발생시킴으로써 개별 대출에 대한 위험관리뿐만 아니라 대출들로 구성되어진 포트폴리오에 대한 위험관리가 필수적이라는 것을 보여주었다. 본 논문의 목표는 국내금융기관들이 신용위험을 분산시켜 위험-수익 측면에서 효율적인 대출포트폴리오의 관리 방안을 제시하고자 하는 것이다. 본 논문에서는 대출포트폴리오의 효율적 관리를 위하여 선진 금융기관에서 많이 사용하는 계량적 신용위험관리 기법인 KMV Model과 CreditMetrics를 소개하였다. KMV Model은 옵션가격결정모형에 근거하여 기업의 주가수준 및 변동성으로 부터 대출기업의 부도확률을 도출하고, 주가의 상관관계를 토대로 개별 대출들간에 기대수익의 상관관계를 추정한다. 따라서 금융기관은 이 모형을 이용하여 위험이 잘 분산된 효율적인 대출포트폴리오를 구할 수 있다. CreditMetrics는 대출포트폴리오의 위험노출을 계량적으로 평가하는 VaR(Value at Risk)를 구하는 것으로 신용위험으로 인한 대출포트폴리오의 가치변동에 따른 잠재적 손실을 측정하는 기법이다. 이 기법에 따르면 금융기관은 과거 경험에 근거하여 신용등급별로 신용등급의 변동확률을 파악하고, 신용등급의 변동에 따른 대출포트폴리오 가치 변동과 손실가능성을 측정할 수 있다. 이와 같이 국내금융기관은 보다 과학적이고 계량화된 위험관리 기법을 적용하여 개별 대출의 한계위험공헌도 및 대출들 상호간에 위험의 상관관계를 고려하여 신용위험을 분산시키는 대출포트폴리오 관리를 실시해야 할 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.1027-1036
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• 2008

Value at Risk(VaR) is a fundamental tool for managing market risks. It measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon under normal market conditions at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, we introduced and applied the CreditMetrics model to estimate the credit VaR of Korean Property and Casuality insurers.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.89-92
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• 2000

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the information content of commercial paper credit rating changes of Korean firms. The result shows neither sinificant daily abnormal returns nor significant cumulative daily abnormal returns over the test window. This ind icates that commercial paper rating changes are not informative to investors. A sensitivity analysis conducted for the portfolio of subsample shows a similar result. This thesis, however, may contribute to the better operation of Korean financial market by providing several directions to establish credit-based financial transactions.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.61-78
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• 2011

Credit derivative is one kind of arrangement which allows one party to transfer, for a premium, the defined credit risk, computed with reference to a notional value, of a reference asset which may or may not owned by one or more other parties. Credit Default Swaps(CDS) have existed since the early 1990s, but its use has become increasingly popular over time. CDS is the fastest growing segment of the privately negotiated derivatives business as many firms depend on it to efficiently manage the financial market risks inherent in economic activities. The diversification function is especially important for active CDS market participants as banks. CDS banks can achieve their loan portfolio diversification which provides them with increased capacity to expand their lending.

• 경영정보학연구
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.361-376
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• 2002

본 논문은 국내 은행금응기관의 신용위험관리를 보다 효율적이고 과학적으로 지원하기 위한 통합 위험관리시스템의 프레임웍을 제시한다. 즉, 담보 보증중심의 사전관리 위주의 대출관리에서 신용중심의 사후관리 위주의 대출관리로 전환되어야 함에 따라 신용평가시스템, 대출의사결정시스템, 사후관리시스템, 그리고 통합 신용위험관리시스템에 이르기까지 각 단위 시스템이 전체적으로 하나의 시스템으로 통합되어야 한다. 특히, 통합 위험관리시스템은 신용위험을 은행전체의 신용 포트폴리오의 관점에서 측정하고 분석함을 의미한다. 통합 위험관리시스템은 개별 대출기업 혹은 개별 대출에 대한 신용위험을 분석함과 동시에 이를 기초 데이터로하여 은행 전체 신용 포트폴리오의 신용위험 노출정도를 파악한다. 또한, 개별 대출기업의 신용등급 변화로 인한 은행전체 신용위험의 변화를 자동적으로 파악하고 조기 경보함으로써 은행의 총체적인 통합 신용위험관리가 가능하도록 한다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.105-115
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• 2020

The study empirically examines the effects of loan portfolio diversification on bank risk and return in the nascent banking market of Vietnam. Loan portfolio diversification is captured through the Hirschman-Herfindahl index and the Shannon Entropy with sectoral exposures. We access each bank's financial reports to collect the required data, especially the breakdown of sectoral loan portfolios, thus constituting a unique dataset. To compute bank return, we use the traditional accounting indicators, including return-on-assets, return-on-equity, and net-interest margin. For bank risk, we utilize the loan-loss provisions and non-performing loans relative to gross customer loans. Using a sample of 30 commercial banks over the period from 2008 to 2019 and the system generalized method of moments estimator for the dynamic panel, we indicate the downsides of portfolio diversification. Concretely, we observe that all diversification measures exhibit significantly negative signs in all regressions across different bank return proxies. At the same time, the estimates display the significant and positive impact of diversification on the non-performing loan ratio. Hence, sectoral loan portfolio diversification significantly hampers bank performance in both aspects of lower return and higher credit risk. The results are robust across a rich set of bank performance and portfolio diversification measures.