• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.64-73
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• 2020

The government announced a plan for fund support to the enterprises with high possibility of recovery and early restructuring for the enterprises with low recovery by objectifying credit assessment system. Such announcement of government could be extended to restructuring risk of middle standing enterprises with low financial soundness by establishing the basis to prepare prompt restructuring by reinforcing the basis for restructuring through capital market. This research analyzed financial soundness based on the financial evaluation of bank by selecting 10 middle standing construction companies which focused on housing business in 2019, based on such analysis result, it was confirmed that there was a high possibility of restructuring risk. This research determined that there would be a decrease in growth rate of construction industry on the whole in 2020 due to fall of economic growth rate and reinforced real estate regulation, accordingly, there's a big possibility for middle standing construction companies with paid-in capital ratio due to its low possibility of maintenance of stable credit rating. This research established KCSI assessment model by utilizing the material of a reliable research institute in order for middle standing construction companies to evade restructuring risk, and indicated risk ratio differentiated per each item through a working-level expert survey. Such research result could suggest credit risk reduction method to middle standing construction company management staffs, and prepare a basis to evade restructuring risk.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.157-178
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• 2009

Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.1
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• pp.19-29
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• 2021

This paper presents the validation of the MCS code for critical safety analysis with burnup credit for the spent fuel casks. The validation process in this work considers five critical benchmark problem sets, which consist of total 80 critical experiments having MOX fuels from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). The similarity analysis with the use of sensitivity and uncertainty tool TSUNAMI in SCALE was used to determine the applicable benchmark experiments corresponding to each spent fuel cask model and then the Upper Safety Limits (USLs) except for the isotopic validation were evaluated following the guidance from NUREG/CR-6698. The validation process in this work was also performed with the MCNP6 for comparison with the results using MCS calculations. The results of this work showed the consistence between MCS and MCNP6 for the MOX fueled criticality benchmarks, thus proving the reliability of the MCS calculations.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.47-64
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• 2014

Considering the network externality and spill-over effects, this paper constructs the theoretical model for analyzing the financial policies focusing on the credit guarantee system for Creative Economy, which has been set as the new policy paradigm for the Korean Economy. The analytical results show that it is as much as important to improve the efficiency of the financial markets and construct the infrastructure for reducing the information asymmetry problem which would be more serious in the creative finance. Although it is important to fill the gap due to the market failure it is also crucial to construct the appropriate financial schemes for the various stages of the innovative firms growth. Without these, the impacts of current public funding policies may crowd out the amount of private market funds for the innovative firms or reduce the possibility of commercialization of new technologies in these firms. Based on the evaluation of current related public policies from the perspectives of creative finance, we imply that the current financial policies appear to be quantity oriented not the quality based. Although the policy goals would be appropriately set for vitalizing the Creative Economy in Korea, they appear to be still unsuccessful to address the information asymmetry issue which is the major concern in vitalizing the creative economy. Thus we emphasize the market friendly policies, risk-sharing between the various market participants, revitalizing the relationship banking and efficient management of credit guarantee system in Korea based on the analytical model as well as the evaluation of related policies regarding the creative economy.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.269-278
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• 2011

There are many researches that have considered the distribution functions and appropriate covariates corresponding to the scores in order to improve the accuracy of a diagnostic test, including the ROC curve that is represented with the relations of the sensitivity and the specificity. The ROC analysis was used by the regression model including some covariates under the assumptions that its distribution function is known or estimable. In this work, we consider a general situation that both the distribution function and the elects of covariates are unknown. For the ROC analysis, the mixtures of normal distributions are used to estimate the distribution function fitted to the credit evaluation data that is consisted of the score random variable and two sub-populations of parameters. The AUC measure is explored to compare with the nonparametric and empirical ROC curve. We conclude that the method using normal mixtures is fitted to the classical one better than other methods.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.105-129
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• 2020

This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.81-100
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• 1996

본 연구에서는 보다 효과적인 기업신용평가를 위하여, 통계적 방법과 인공지능 방법을 결합한 결합모형을 제시햐고자 한다. 이를 위하여 본 연ㄴ구에서는 통계적인 모형중에서 가장 널리 활용되고 있는 MDA (Multivariate Discriminant Analysis) 와 인공지능적인 방법으로서 최근에 널리 사용되고 있는 인공싱경망( neural network)모형을 휴리스틱한 방법으로 결합한다. 이러한 결합모형의 성과를 증명하기 위하여 우리나라의 대표적인 3대 기업신용평가 기관에서 수집한 1043개의 기업신용평가자료를 기초로 실혐을 하고, 그 결과를 기존의 MDA 및 인공신경망 방법에 의한 결과와 비교하였다. 실험결과, 통계적으로도 유의하고, 실무적인 관점에서도 의미가 있는 기업신용펑가 결과를 유도할 수 있었다.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.1
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• pp.26-32
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• 2010

This paper proposes a new effective installed reserve rate in order to evaluate reliability of power system considering renewable generators, which include uncertainty of resource supply. It is called EIRR(effective installed reserve rate) in this paper. It is developed with considering capacity credit based on ELCC by using LOLE reliability criterion. While the conventional installed reserve rate index yields over-evaluation reliability of renewable generators, the proposed EIRR describes actual effective installed reserve rate. However, it is not the probabilistic reliability index as like as LOLE or EENS but another deterministic effective reliability index. The proposed EIRR is able to evaluate the realistic contribution to the reliability level for power system considering wind turbine generators and solar cell generators with high uncertainty in resource supply. The case study in model system as like as Jeju power system size presents a possibility that the proposed EIRR can be used practically as a new deterministic reliability index for generation expansion planning or operational planning in future.

• Human Ecology Research
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• v.61 no.3
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• pp.297-318
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• 2023

The purpose of this study was to develop a high school home economics financial consumer education program based on backward design and validation by experts. The program was designed and developed by first selecting learning content elements through a review of existing research and an analysis of relevant literature. The next step was to categorize these elements into seven themes and apply the backward design instructional design model 2.0. The program was prepared in the form of a 21st teaching-learning course plan and workbook and was verified by nine home economics teachers with working experience in high school. The evaluation revealed that the average value for all questions was 3.81 (out of 4 points) and the CVR was .99, indicating that the program was valid. In addition, positive evaluations were received in terms of learning goals, content level, and learner participation by class. This study has significance in that a systematic financial consumer education program was developed by Education of Home Economics to improve the financial literacy of high school students. It can therefore be used as an elective course (mini-course) in Home Economics in the high school credit system. A follow-up study will be required to assess the improvement in financial literacy after implementing this program.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.135-154
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• 2020

This paper analyzes the 5,521 samples of the small and medium-sized businesses(SMBs) obtained from the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund. From January 2014 to September 2019, 85% of the SMBs have 5 or fewer full-time employees. The proportion of SMBs is overwhelmed by the elderly men, and most founders are the CEO. Also, about 87% of the workplace types are rented, while 64% of the CEO's residence types are owner-occupation. 47% of the financial grade score is less than 10 points out of 100 and 80% of SMBs have less than 200 million won of the loan guarantee. In particular, the total guarantee loan amount or the days of net guarantee have significantly positive relations with the working period of the CEO in the same industry, the number of employees, the operation period of SMBs, and the corporate business type. In the case of the financial grading score which has the highest weight in overall credit rating gets higher with the higher number of employees, the longer the operation period, and the corporate business type. However, the quantified non-financial grading score has no significant relationship with other explanatory variables, except for the corporate business type. This implies that a non-financial grade score is measured by other determinants that are not observed by the Korea credit guarantee fund. The pure non-financial grade score has positive relations with the working period of the CEO. Overall, this paper would help Korean SMBs upgrade their credit ratings and expand the money supply when there is no standardized credit rating model or no publicly available evaluation criteria for SMBs. We expect this paper provides important insights for further research and policy-makers for SMBs. In particular, to address the financial needs of thin-filers such as SMBs, technology-based financial services (TechFin) would use alternative data to evaluate the financial capabilities of thin-filers and to develop new financial services.