• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.15-26
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• 2002

The quantitative evaluation method of the safety management cost was suggested to prevent a gas accident as a major industrial accident. In a gas governor station, process risk assessments such as the fault tree analysis(FTA) and the consequence analysis were performed. Based on process risk assessments, potential accident costs were estimated and the cost-benefit analysis(CBA) was performed. From the cost-benefit analysis for five classification items of safety management cost, the order of the cost/benefit ratio was estimated.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.249-255
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• 2018

Many studies in risk management have been focused on management process, contract relation, and risk analysis in the past decade, but very few studies have addressed project risks from the perspective of risk efficiency. This study started with using Fault Tree Analysis to develop a framework for the decision-making support system of risk management from the perspective of risk efficiency, in order for the support system to find risk strategies of optimal combination for the project manager by the trade-off between project risk and cost of project strategies. Comprehensive and realistic risk strategies must strive for optimal decisions that minimize project risks and risk strategies cost while addressing important data such as risk causes, risk probability, risk impact and risk strategies cost. The risk management in the construction phase of building projects in Taiwan upon important data has been analyzed, that provided the data for support system to include 247 risk causes. Then, 17 risk causes were extracted to demonstrates the decision-making support system of risk management from the perspective of risk efficiency in building project of Taiwan which could reach better combination type of risk strategies for the project manager by the trade-off between risk cost and project risk.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.147-155
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• 2012

최근 들어 많은 건설 프로젝트들이 대규모의 자본과 인력, 자원이 투입되고, 선진 건설사업관리 기법들이 도입되고 있지만, 사업비를 초과하는 사례가 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 이는 여전히 사업비 관리가 제대로 이루어지고 있지 않고 있다는 것과 사업비 관리 업무에 내재된 많은 리스크들이 관리가 되지 않고 있다는 것이라고 설명할 수 있다. 따라서 사업비 초과를 방지하고, 프로젝트의 성공을 거두기 위해서는 사업비관리와 관련된 리스크 요인을 발굴하고, 분석하는 것이 매우 중요할 것이다. 이와 같은 관점에서 본 연구는 건설프로젝트 전 단계에 걸쳐 참여를 하고, 사업비 관리 업무를 수행하고 있는 건설사업관리자의 관점에서 시공 전(前)단계의 사업비관리 업무에 내재된 리스크 요인을 도출하고, 그 요인들이 사업비 초과에 얼마나 영향을 미치는지를 FMEA 기법을 통해서 분석하였다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.177-183
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• 2006

Risk-based estimation has been successfully introduced into the construction industry. By incorporating historical data associated with probability analysis, risk-based estimate is an effective decision support aid in considering whether to launch a particular project. The industry challenges, however, especially related with management issues, such as labor shortage, wage growth, and supply chain complexity, have often resulted in poor cost performance. The insufficient assessing the project characteristics (i.e., resource availability, project complexity, and project delivery method) can be the main reasons in the poor cost performance. Because the accuracy level of cost performance prediction can be enhanced by extensive evaluation of the subject project characteristics, a new approach for predicting cost performance in an earlier stage of a project can improve the Industry substantiality, in other words, value maximization. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new methodology in developing a risk-based estimate tool by incorporating extensive project characteristics. To do this, an extensive industry survey was conducted from both private and public sectors in building industry in Korea. In addition, significant project characteristics were identified in terms of cost performance indicator. Although the data collection is limited to Korean industry the suggested approach provides the industry with a straightforward methodology in risk management. As many researchers maintained that front-end planning efforts are crucial in achieving the successful outcome in building projects, the new method for risk-based estimation can Improve the cost performance as well as enhance the fulfillment in terms of business sustainability.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.85-99
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• 1995

Increasingly, risk analysis is becoming important ingredients in achieving the successful implementation and application in the area of the project management. The project management system is designed to manage or control the project resources on a given activity within time, cost and performance so called TPPM (Total Productive Project Management). In this research, a risk analysis model misproposed to identify potential problem areas, quantify the risks, and generated the chice of the action that can be taken to reduce the risk. In addition two analysis models are proposed : 1) risk factor model and 2) network simulation model using VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique ). The objective of the remodels is to estimate the schedule, cost performance risks. These proposed quantitative models for project risk analysis are proving its value for the project managers who need to assess the risk of changes in cost, schedule, or performance. The proposed models will be used in the area of project selection, evaluation and the allocation of project resources.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.33-53
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• 2010

When purchase prices of a raw material fluctuate over time, the total purchasing cost is mainly affected by reordering time. Existing researches focus on deciding the right time when the demand for each period is replenished at the lowest cost. However, the decision is based on expected future prices which usually turn out to include some error. This discrepancy between expected prices and actual prices deteriorates the performance of inventory models dealing with fluctuating purchase prices. In this paper, we propose a new inventory model which incorporates not only cost but also risk into making up a replenishment schedule to meet each period's demand. For each replenishment schedule, the risk is defined to be the variance of its total cost. By introducing the risk into the objective function, the variability of the total cost can be mitigated, and eventually more stable replenishment schedule will be obtained. According to experimental results from crude oil inventory management, the proposed model showed better performance over other models in respect of variability and cost.

• Computational Structural Engineering : An International Journal
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.19-23
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• 2002

A reliability-based cost-benefit model for the risk management of oil platforms in the formulation of optimal decisions based on life-cycle consideration is proposed. The model is based on structural risk assessments and the integration of social issues and economics into the management decision process. Structural risks result from the platform's exposure to the random environmental loading associated with the offshore site where it is located. Several alternative designs of a typical platform are proposed and assessed from the cost-effectiveness viewpoint. This assessment is performed through the generation of cost/benefit relationships that are used, later on, to select the optimal design.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.488-493
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• 2013

Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.78-90
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• 2009

오늘날 고속도로 운영은 IT를 기반으로 하는 복잡한 Digital Infrastructure이다. 이러한 IT의 활용은 점점 많아지고 있는데, 예측 불가능한 운영위험이 발생할 경우 IT의 편리함만큼이나 피해가 예상외로 커질 수 있다. 고속도로 운영 위험은 도로의 운영이 중단되어 도로이용자들이 서비스를 제공받지 못하는 것이다. 운영위험은 예상하지 못한 과다한 운영관리비 및 유지관리비의 발생으로 계획된 운영비를 초과하는 것이며, 운영수입의 손실을 가져온다. 그 결과 이용자 안전의 위험과 운영자의 부실을 초래하게 되는데, 기존의 연구는 이를 추정할 수 있는 방법에 대한 연구가 미흡한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 디지털화된 고속도로에서 대규모 정전사태가 발생할 경우 추가로 발생되는 운영비 항목을 구체적으로 제시하고 각 항목에 대한 예상 가능한 위험비용을 시뮬레이션 추정을 하고자 하였다. 이를 근거로 하여 운영위험을 방지하기 위한 비용예산과 운영계획 측면에서 방안을 제시하고자 하며, 향후 운영의 건전성을 확보할 수 있는 기초자료로 활용을 도모코자 한다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.94-100
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• 2006

The risk management is an organized method for identifying and measuring risk and for selecting, developing, and implementing options for the handling of risk. The risk management covers all programatic and technical factors which affect the system development performance, cost, and schedule. While technical issues are primary concern for systems engineering, the three elements(performance, cost, and schedule) must be balanced for a successful risk management process. This paper proposes the risk management process for the KSLV-I(Korea Space Launch Vehicle-I) program using computer-aided systems engineering tool, Cradle. The risk management process of KSLV-I program is similar to the general risk management process, but it has its own specific features to manage large-scale complex characteristics of KSLV-I program.