• Title/Summary/Keyword: cost prediction

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A Case Study on the Improvement Plan for Cost Prediction of Educational BTL Project based on Running Cost Analysis (교육시설 BTL사업의 유지관리비용 비교분석을 통한 비용추정 개선방안에 관한 사례연구)

  • Park, Moon-Sun;Song, Chang-Youg;Kim, Yong-Su
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.139-149
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the problem of BTL(Build Transfer Lease) projects through comparative analysis on running costs, focusing on primary school, junior and senior high school education facilities, and then to provide useful information on the estimation of running costs by suggesting valid cost criteria. For this, eight schools from A and B consulting firms were sampled from capital region and other areas. Sampled schools were classified into four categories according to school grade, and running cost data are collected and analyzed from relative view points. The results of this study are as follows: 1) running costs which are analyzed by categories show some difference among sub-items, 2) major problems related to running cost prediction of BTL projects are revealed and improvement schemes are suggested for two groups (Owner and Project applicants).

Neural Network Model for Construction Cost Prediction of Apartment Projects in Vietnam

  • Luu, Van Truong;Kim, Soo-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.139-147
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    • 2009
  • Accurate construction cost estimation in the initial stage of building project plays a key role for project success and for mitigation of disputes. Total construction cost(TCC) estimation of apartment projects in Vietnam has become more important because those projects increasingly rise in quantity with the urbanization and population growth. This paper presents the application of artificial neural networks(ANNs) in estimating TCC of apartment projects. Ninety-one questionnaires were collected to identify input variables. Fourteen data sets of completed apartment projects were obtained and processed for training and generalizing the neural network(NN). MATLAB software was used to train the NN. A program was constructed using Visual C++ in order to apply the neural network to realistic projects. The results suggest that this model is reasonable in predicting TCCs for apartment projects and reinforce the reliability of using neural networks to cost models. Although the proposed model is not validated in a rigorous way, the ANN-based model may be useful for both practitioners and researchers. It facilitates systematic predictions in early phases of construction projects. Practitioners are more proactive in estimating construction costs and making consistent decisions in initial phases of apartment projects. Researchers should benefit from exploring insights into its implementation in the real world. The findings are useful not only to researchers and practitioners in the Vietnam Construction Industry(VCI) but also to participants in other developing countries in South East Asia. Since Korea has emerged as the first largest foreign investor in Vietnam, the results of this study may be also useful to participants in Korea.

The Prediction of Health care Outcome of Total Hip Replacement Arthroplasty Patients using Charlson Comorbidity Index (Charlson Comorbidity Index를 활용한 고관절치환술 환자의 건강결과 예측)

  • Choi, Won-Ho;Yoon, Seok-Jun;Ahn, Hyeong-Sik;Kyung, Min-Ho;Kim, Kyung-Hun;Kim, Kyeong-Uoon
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2009
  • The objectives of the present study is to examine the validity of Charlson Comorbidity Index(CCI) based on medical record data; to utilize the index to determine outcome indexes such as mortality, length of stay and cost for the domestic patients whose have received total hip arthroplasty. Based on medical record date, 1-year Mortality was analyzed to be 0.664 of C statistic. The $R^2$ for the predictability for length of stay and the cost was about 0.0181, 0.1842. Fee of national health insurance and total cost including the cost not covered by insurance, also had statistically significance above 3 points of Charlson point score(p=0.0290, 0.0472; $p.{\le}0.05$). The 1-year mortality index, length of stay and cost of the total hip arthroplasty patients which was obtained utilizing CCI have a limitative prediction power and therefore should be carefully analyzed for use.

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The Extraction Method of Spacial Element Cost based on the Quantity Take-Off and Bill of Quantity (건설공사의 수량산출서 및 산출내역서 기반 공간별/부위별 공사비 추출방법에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Dong-hee;Kim, Hyung-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2021.11a
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    • pp.232-233
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    • 2021
  • As construction projects become larger and more complex in the construction environment, and as the Building Information Model(BIM) is technically introduced, the demand for construction costs in units of space is increasing. Cost estimating of spacial element can reduce the error in cost prediction method based on cost of work type and to utilize the construction cost data for each space in the design phase. The purpose of this study is to extract spatial statements by utilizing spacial information of quantitative statements based on items that are common elements of the Quantity Take-Off and Bill of Quantity.

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An Intelligent Handover Scheme for the Next Generation Personal Communication Systems

  • Ming-Hui;Kuang, Eric-Hsiao;Chao-Hsu
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.245-257
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    • 2004
  • Driven by the growing number of the mobile subscribers, efficient channel resource management plays a key role for provisioning multimedia service in the next generation personal communication systems. To reuse limited channel resources, diminishing the coverage areas of cells seems to be the ultimate solution. Thus, however, causes more handover events. To provide seamless connection environment for mobile terminals and applications, this article presents a novel handover scheme called the intelligent channel reservation (ICR) scheme, which exploits the location prediction technologies to accurately reserve channel resources for handover connections. Considering the fact that each mobile terminal has its individual mobility characteristic, the ICR scheme utilizes a channel reserving notification procedure (CRNP) to collect adequate parameters for predicting the future location of individual mobile terminals. These parameters will be utilized by the handover prediction function to estimate the expected handover blocking rate and the expected number of idle channels. Based on the handover prediction estimations, a cost function for calculating the damages from blocking the handover connections and idling channel resources, and a corresponding algorithm for minimizing the cost function are proposed. In addition, a guard channel decision maker (GCDM) determines the appropriate number of guard channels. The experimental results show that the ICR scheme does reduce the handover-blocking rate while keeping the number of idle channels small.

Least Squares Based Adaptive Motion Vector Prediction Algorithm for Video Coding (동영상 압축 방식을 위한 최소 자승 기반 적응 움직임 벡터 예측 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Ji-hee;Jeong, Jong-woo;Hong, Min-Cheol
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.29 no.9C
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    • pp.1330-1336
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    • 2004
  • This paper addresses an adaptive motion vector prediction algorithm to improve the performance of video encoder. The block-based motion vector is characterized by non-stationary local statistics so that the coefficients of LS (Least Squares) based linear motion can be optimized. However, it requires very expensive computational cost. The proposed algorithm using LS approach with spatially varying motion-directed property adaptively controls the coefficients of the motion predictor and reduces the computational cost as well as the motion prediction error. Experimental results show the capability of the proposed algorithm.

Dynamic Thermal Rating of Overhead Transmission Lines Based on GRAPES Numerical Weather Forecast

  • Yan, Hongbo;Wang, Yanling;Zhou, Xiaofeng;Liang, Likai;Yin, Zhijun;Wang, Wei
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.724-736
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    • 2019
  • Dynamic thermal rating technology can effectively improve the thermal load capacity of transmission lines. However, its availability is limited by the quantity and high cost of the hardware facilities. This paper proposes a new dynamic thermal rating technology based on global/regional assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES) and geographic information system (GIS). The paper will also explore the method of obtaining any point meteorological data along the transmission line by using GRAPES and GIS, and provide the strategy of extracting and decoding meteorological data. In this paper, the accuracy of numerical weather prediction was verified from the perspective of time and space. Also, the 750-kV transmission line in Shaanxi Province is considered as an example to analyze. The results of the study indicate that dynamic thermal rating based on GRAPES and GIS can fully excavate the line power potential without additional cost on hardware, which saves a lot of investment.

Development of Performance Prediction Method for Bridge and Tunnel Management Decision-making (교량 및 터널 시설물의 유지관리 의사결정을 위한 성능 예측 방법 개발)

  • Lee, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Ji-Won;Jun, Tae-Hyun;Jeong, Won-Seok;Park, Ki-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2016
  • In this study, using the Cost Prediction Model and Performance Prediction Model have developed a way to estimate future management costs and performance for bridge and tunnel by Network Level. Studies to date have primarily focused on the single facility, it is difficult to apply to the analysis of the Network Level. This study, items used as an index of 'Special Act for the Safety Control of Public Structures' was added to Usability and Functionality to Status. Action period and annual budget for each facility can be estimated through the Basic and Advanced analysis. In addition, we verified the technical feasibility through case analysis.

Development of a model for an equation for estimating construction costs based on the resource-based cost estimating system for TBM (TBM 공법의 자원기반 적산 방식에 의한 개산 공사비 예측 식 모델 개발)

  • Han, Seung-Hee;Park, Hong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1474-1480
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    • 2013
  • This study attempted to estimate construction costs in accordance with the resource-based cost estimation (unit cost price) system by diameter for TBM method, and analyzed the direct cost and the total cost. Based on such figures, this study performed a regression analysis and proposed a model for an equation for estimating construction costs. model for the resource-based cost estimation (unit cost price) system classified by diameter for TBM method proposed by this study can be effectively applied to business planning, preliminary investigation, feasibility study, construction cost estimations in the early design stages.

An Analysis of Location Management Cost by Predictive Location Update Policy in Mobile Cellular Networks (이동통신망에서 예측 위치 등록 정책을 통한 위치관리 비용 감소 효과 분석)

  • Ko, Han-Seong;Hong, Jung-Sik;Chang, In-Kap;Lie, Chang-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.160-171
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    • 2008
  • MU's mobility patterns can be found from a movement history data. The prediction accuracy and model complexity depend on the degree of application of history data. The more data we use, the more accurate the prediction is. As a result, the location management cost is reduced, but complexity of the model increases. In this paper, we classify MU's mobility patterns into four types. For each type, we find the respective optimal number of application of history data, and predictive location area by using the simulation. The optimal numbers of four types are shown to be different. When we use more than three application of history data, the simulation time and data storage are shown to increase very steeply.