• Title/Summary/Keyword: convergence technology

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The Analysis Methods Based on Patent Citation Networks for the Convergence Technologies Development Planning : A Case of Smart Factory's ICT Technologies (융합기술 개발전략 기획을 위한 특허 인용 네트워크 기반의 분석 방법론 : 스마트공장 ICT 기술을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyun-Min;Kim, Sun-Jae;Kim, Hong-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.34-47
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    • 2018
  • As interest in advanced countries regarding the convergence technology development increases, a methodology for identifying the core convergence technology that has a large spill-over effect on the technology and industry is required for the nation's competitiveness enhancement in the convergence technology field. Based on patent citation network analysis using 1,124 USPTO patents in the ICT convergence technology field of the smart factory, this study examined the proposed heterogeneous technology convergence index as a tool for measuring the convergence characteristics of the spillovers compared to other indexes (i.e. other sector ratio index and homogeneous technology convergence index). The proposed heterogeneous technology convergence index was used to investigate core technology sectors among ICT technology sectors of smart factory identified by government ministries. Results found 6 core ICT convergence technology sectors including the manufacturing execution analysis application sector. Also, this study conducted blockmodeling analysis using the IPC codes of patents in the manufacturing execution analysis application sector, and identified that the blocks representing the electronic communication and electric digital data processing technology sectors (Block 3 & 4) are related technology sectors which can be converged with core technology. Based on the findings, the implications for the convergence technology development planning of the smart factory field are discussed.

Discovering Promising Convergence Technologies Using Network Analysis of Maturity and Dependency of Technology (기술 성숙도 및 의존도의 네트워크 분석을 통한 유망 융합 기술 발굴 방법론)

  • Choi, Hochang;Kwahk, Kee-Young;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.101-124
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    • 2018
  • Recently, most of the technologies have been developed in various forms through the advancement of single technology or interaction with other technologies. Particularly, these technologies have the characteristic of the convergence caused by the interaction between two or more techniques. In addition, efforts in responding to technological changes by advance are continuously increasing through forecasting promising convergence technologies that will emerge in the near future. According to this phenomenon, many researchers are attempting to perform various analyses about forecasting promising convergence technologies. A convergence technology has characteristics of various technologies according to the principle of generation. Therefore, forecasting promising convergence technologies is much more difficult than forecasting general technologies with high growth potential. Nevertheless, some achievements have been confirmed in an attempt to forecasting promising technologies using big data analysis and social network analysis. Studies of convergence technology through data analysis are actively conducted with the theme of discovering new convergence technologies and analyzing their trends. According that, information about new convergence technologies is being provided more abundantly than in the past. However, existing methods in analyzing convergence technology have some limitations. Firstly, most studies deal with convergence technology analyze data through predefined technology classifications. The technologies appearing recently tend to have characteristics of convergence and thus consist of technologies from various fields. In other words, the new convergence technologies may not belong to the defined classification. Therefore, the existing method does not properly reflect the dynamic change of the convergence phenomenon. Secondly, in order to forecast the promising convergence technologies, most of the existing analysis method use the general purpose indicators in process. This method does not fully utilize the specificity of convergence phenomenon. The new convergence technology is highly dependent on the existing technology, which is the origin of that technology. Based on that, it can grow into the independent field or disappear rapidly, according to the change of the dependent technology. In the existing analysis, the potential growth of convergence technology is judged through the traditional indicators designed from the general purpose. However, these indicators do not reflect the principle of convergence. In other words, these indicators do not reflect the characteristics of convergence technology, which brings the meaning of new technologies emerge through two or more mature technologies and grown technologies affect the creation of another technology. Thirdly, previous studies do not provide objective methods for evaluating the accuracy of models in forecasting promising convergence technologies. In the studies of convergence technology, the subject of forecasting promising technologies was relatively insufficient due to the complexity of the field. Therefore, it is difficult to find a method to evaluate the accuracy of the model that forecasting promising convergence technologies. In order to activate the field of forecasting promising convergence technology, it is important to establish a method for objectively verifying and evaluating the accuracy of the model proposed by each study. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for analysis of convergence technologies. First of all, through topic modeling, we derive a new technology classification in terms of text content. It reflects the dynamic change of the actual technology market, not the existing fixed classification standard. In addition, we identify the influence relationships between technologies through the topic correspondence weights of each document, and structuralize them into a network. In addition, we devise a centrality indicator (PGC, potential growth centrality) to forecast the future growth of technology by utilizing the centrality information of each technology. It reflects the convergence characteristics of each technology, according to technology maturity and interdependence between technologies. Along with this, we propose a method to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting model by measuring the growth rate of promising technology. It is based on the variation of potential growth centrality by period. In this paper, we conduct experiments with 13,477 patent documents dealing with technical contents to evaluate the performance and practical applicability of the proposed method. As a result, it is confirmed that the forecast model based on a centrality indicator of the proposed method has a maximum forecast accuracy of about 2.88 times higher than the accuracy of the forecast model based on the currently used network indicators.