• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.283-316
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• 1977

In an attempt to obtain a basic information to develop an effective integrated system of controlling sheath blight of rice in Korea, the transition of this disease, the variation of cultural characters and pathogenicity of the pathogen, environmental conditions affecting the disease outbreak and varietal resistance have been investigated. 1. Rice sheath blight which has been minor disease in the past was widely spread, especially since 1971. This disease has promptly spread all over the country and infected 65.2% of total rice growing area in 1976. Various factors are considered to be related to such transition of this disease. Above all, increace of application of nitrogenous fertilizer, early season and earlier cultivation of rice, introduction of more susceptible "Tongil" varieties etc. must be important factors influencing the outbreak of this disease. 2. Great variations in cultural characteristics-such as mycelial growth rate, color of the medium, amount of the aerial mycelium, shape and color of the sclerotia- and in the pathogenicity of isolates of the pathogen, Thanatephorus cucumeris Dank were observed. The optimum temperature for mycelial growth also varied with isolates, from $25^{\circ}C$ to $30^{\circ}C$. There were not necessarily any correlation between curtural characteristics and pathogenicity of isolates of Thanatephorus cucumens. 3. Mycelial grow th of isolates of Thanatephorus cucumens on the PDA medium were correlated with the air temperatures of the region where the isolates were collected. The isolates from the regions with high temperature grew well on PDA medium at $35^{\circ}C$ than those from the region with low temperature, on the other hand, the isolates from the regions with the low temperature grew well on the same medium at $12^{\circ}C$ than those from the regions with high temperature. 4. Pectin polygalacturonase (PG) and cellulase (Cx) were most active on the 3rd day after inoculation on the leaves of rice plant with Thanatephorus cucumeris, whereas pectin methylestrase (PE) was most active on the 4th day after inoculation. Relationship between the activities of PE of isolates and the strength of pathogenicity of isolates was obtained, but PG and cellulase activities were not correlated with pathogenicity of isolates. 5. The tolerence of sclerotia from in-vitro culture to low temperature varied with their water content, the dried cultural sclerotia were more tolerent than wet ones, Dried cultural sclerotia maintained almost 100% germinability for 45 days at $-20^{\circ}C$, whereas wet sclerotia lost viability at $-5^{\circ}C$. The germination ratio of the sclerotia after overwintering changed from 18% to 70% according to the water content of the test paddy fields and the ratio was low in wet paddy condition. 6. To investigate the host range of this fungi in and near paddy field, 17 weeds were inoculated with fungi. The lesions of sheath blight disease was obserbed on Sagittaria trifolia L., Echinochloa crusgalli P. Beauv., Monochoria vaginal is Presl, Polygonum Hydropiper L., Eclipta prostrata L., Digitaria sanguinalis Scapoli. 7. When the level of nitrogen applied was doubled over standard level, total nitrogen content in rice sheath increased, ami when silicate was applied, starch content in rice sheath decreased, inducing the rice plants more susceptible to sheath blight disease. Increased dressing of potash ferilizer reduced the incidence of sheat blight disease. 8. The percentage of infected stems in the early period increased more in the narrow hill plot than in the wide hill plot, but in the late period this tendency was inversed; the percentage of infected stems as well as severity in the wide hill plot increased more compared to the narrow hill plot, and the disease severity in the one plant per hill plot was also low. The number of stems in the wide hill plot was more than the number of stems in the narrow hill plot. This indicates that the microclimate, such as the relative humidity, in the narrow hill plot was more favorable for the development of this disease. 9. There was a high negative correlation between the disease severity of varieties to the sheath blight and the maturity of the varieties, that is, the early varieties were more susceptible than the late ones, and much-tillering varieties usually showed more infection than less tillering varieties. 10. No relationship was obtained between the percentage of infected stems in the early period and the severity after heading, whereas a distinct relationship was obtained between former and latter after Aug. 10.