• 천문학회보
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.123.1-123.1
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• 2012

We have compared near-real time Kp forecast models based on neural network (NN) and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms. We consider four models as follows: (1) a NN model using ACE solar wind data; (2) a SVM model using ACE solar wind data; (3) a NN model using ACE solar wind data and preliminary kp values from US ground-based magnetometers; (4) a SVM model using the same input data as model 3. For the comparison of these models, we estimate correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Kp and the predicted Kp. As a result, we found that the model 3 is better than the other models. The values of correlation coefficients and RMS error of the model 3 are 0.93 and 0.48, respectively. For the forecast evaluation of models for geomagnetic storms ($Kp{\geq}6$), we present contingency tables and estimate statistical parameters such as probability of detection yes (PODy), false alarm ratio (FAR), bias, and critical success index (CSI). From a comparison of these statistical parameters, we found that the SVM models (model 2 and model 4) are better than the NN models (model 1 and model 3). The values of PODy and CSI of the model 4 are the highest among these models (PODy: 0.57 and CSI: 0.48). From these results, we suggest that the NN models are better than the SVM models for predicting Kp and the SVM models are better than the NN models for forecasting geomagnetic storms.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.43-62
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• 2011

The goal of this study is to determine, based on survey results, the underlying factors that affect the intention of the farmers who have not adopted the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) system for the rearing phase of pig production to adopt this system in the future. The research model for this study was con structed based on strategic contingency theory, the theory of the diffusion of innovation, and the technology acceptance model (TAM). Using structural equation modeling with partial least squares (PLS), this study analyzes the effects of the intensity of competition, the environmental uncertainty, the innovativeness and self-efficacy of the individual farmers, and the impact of the credibility of the Agricultural Technology Service Center (ATSC), which acts as the principal agent of technology dissemination and as a leader of change, on the perceived usefulness of technology and the farmers' intention to adopt the system. The results of the analysis are as follows. First, with regard to the underlying factors affecting the intention to adopt the new system, the intensity of competition within the industry and the institutional credibility of the ATSC were inferred to underlie the perceived usefulness. Second, institutional credibility has a positive impact on the perceived usefulness of the system, and the perceived usefulness, in turn, has a positive impact on the intention to adopt. The perceived ease of use also has a positive impact on the intention to adopt. Because the factor that has the biggest impact on the intention of a farm to adopt is the credibility of the ATSC, it is crucial for extension organizations, such as the ATSC, to make greater efforts to promote the expansion of the HACCP system. Because farmers feel that the implementation of the HACCP system is an instrumental strategy for coping with the high intensity of competition within the industry, they attempt to gain a competitive edge through the production of safe livestock products.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.627-641
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• 2012

본 연구는 다차원 분할표 형태로 정리된 범주형 자료가 결측치나 무응답을 가지고 있을 때 주어진 자료를 가장 잘 설명하고 예측의 정확도를 높일 수 있는 모형의 추정과 모형의 선택 문제를 다루었다. 무시할 수 없는 무응답 (non-ignorable non-response)체계하에서 최대우도 추정에서 발생할 수 있는 변방값 문제를 해결하기 위하여 계층적 베이지안 모형을 고려하였다. 또한 모형 적도를 높이기 위한 변수 조합을 찾는 모형 선택의 문제를 함께 다루었다. 베이지안 접근하에서 모형 선택의 문제를 다루기 위하여 베이즈 인자 (Bayes factor)를 모형 선택의 기준으로 이용하였다. 제시된 방법은 2004년 실시된 우리나라 국회의원 선거를 앞두고 수행된 여론조사 데이터를 이용하여 실증분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 무시할 수 없는 무응답 체계하에서 설명변수로 투표참여여부를 이용하는 것이 가장 적합한 모형으로 판명되었다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.54-68
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• 1990

Contingency response in a FMS system requires that the system be able to identify and evaluate a number of alternatives. This paper is outlined that DSS completes with a problem processor in corporating Timed Petri Nets model, and a data base system. DSS enables the FMS user to get the maximum benefit from a FMS. The structure of this DSS parallels the organizational activities involved in running the FMS. In designing a shop floor controller for FMS, interactions between the different real time, discrete event functions must be established. The specification of the machine tool and material handling system functions working as a concurrent and cooperative system is given in terms of Timed Petri Nets. In addition, the basic concepts and uses of Petri Nets are surveyed. The system to be studied is first modelled by a Timed Petri Nets and then procedure for evaluating the FMS system performance are presented. Numerical examples are studied to illustrate a session of the FMS used-DSS interaction.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2011년도 제42회 하계학술대회
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• pp.412-413
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• 2011

This paper presents a new generation rescheduling approach for preventive control of power systems, which can optimally reallocate power generations for unstable contingencies. The transient stability constraints used in the optimal rescheduling model are described by energy margin sensitivity. Especially the energy margin sensitivity is evaluated for change with respect to generation. For a given contingency, the energy margin is computed and the respective sensitivities are also computed.

• 경영과학
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.149-178
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• 1998

Strategic Information Systems Planning(SISP) has gained considerable interest among researchers and practitioners in recent years Which has instigated various related research. Neverthless, only 24 percent of the projects recommended as a result of SISP are ultimately performed. This statistics raise the questions for the need of SISP. This study provides the framework that may enable SISP to be more effectively utilized by studying factors for consideration from the review of pertinent literature. These factors will then be validated by case studies of domestic companies and by simultaneously inducing key characteristics and solutions of SISP. The result of the study indicate some inconsistency between literal factors and the case study. The factors added through case study were considered to be actual factors of SISP. This study emphasized the role of the senior manager, the quality of the implementation of the state plan, change management and the capability of the planning team. As a key characteristics of domestic companies considered was the general lack of ability to collect and analyze data. In addition, the domestic companies have little consideration of the organizational contingency factors.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제56권5호
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• pp.848-853
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• 2007

This paper presents a methodology of estimating incomplete information in electricity markets for analyzing the gaming behavior of Generating Companies (GENCOs). Each GENCO needs to model its opponents' unknown information of strategic biddings and cost functions. In electricity markets with complete information, each GENCO knows its rivals' payoff functions and tries to maximize its own profit at Nash equilibriurnl Nli) by acknowledging the rivals' cost function. On the other hand, in the incomplete information markets, each GENCO lacks information about its rivals. Load patterns can change continuously due to many factors such as weather, price, contingency, etc. In this paper, we propose the method of the estimation of the opponents' cost function using market price, transaction quantities. and customer load patterns. A numerical example with two GENCOs is illustrated to show the basic idea and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.91-93
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• 2000

KERISIM(KERI Simulator)은 한국전기연구소가 개발한 회전기형 시뮬레이터로서 AC/DC 비동기 연계계통을 포함한 복합계통의 다양한 동태현상에 대한 분석이 가능하다. 본 논문에서는 한국전기연구소의 전력계통 분석용 시뮬레이터에 대한 EMTDC 해석모델을 개발하고 이를 활용하여 상정사고 해석을 수행함으로써 제어기 설계를 위한 성능시험을 할 수 있는 기본 바탕을 마련하였다. 즉, KERISIM을 구성하고 있는 개별 기기들의 설계사양을 기술하였으며, EMTDC 해석모델의 구성요소들을 살펴보았다. 이와 같이 개발된 EMTDC 모델를 활용하여 Rectifier 및 Inverter측 교류모선에서 3상고장 상정사고 해석을 수행하였으며, 그 해석결과를 분석하였다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2006년도 제37회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.34-35
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• 2006

This paper presents an information collection and a novel inference technique for evaluation of power system operation state. In most developing countries, power demands are steadily increasing and consequently power systems are becoming larger and more complicated. In addition, power system deregulations further complicate the power system operational tasks, which are resulted in prevailing wide area blackouts worldwide. In this paper, we proposed an effective information collection and operating state evaluation methods using a knowledge-based system. The RTS-79 24 bus system is used as a test system. The power system model is composed with JESS templates and included in the knowledge-base as a part of fixed facts. Dynamic informations are collected from various analysis results and actual operational data. Inferences are performed with rules expressed with terms in different abstraction levels. Future research will be concentrated on intelligent contingency selections for preventing wide area blackouts.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• 제3권spc2호
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• pp.341-345
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• 2005

Part-I of this two-part paper develops an optimal algorithm for transient stability control to coordinate the preventive actions and emergency actions for a subset of contingencies with an identical unstable mode. In this portion, several subsets of contingencies having dissimilar unstable modes are dealt with. Preventive actions benefiting a subset of contingencies may go against the stability of others, thus coordination among the optimal schemes for individual subsets is necessary. The coordination can be achieved by replacing some preventive actions with contingency-specified emergency actions. It is formulated as a classical model of economic dispatch with stability constraints and stability control costs. Such an optimal algorithm is proposed based on the algorithm in Part-I of the paper and is verified by simulations on a Chinese power system.