• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.9-24
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• 2015

Construction industry faces a lot of inherent uncertainties and issues and the construction phase of nuclear power project is not free from this risk. This paper investigates promising methodologies to be used on nuclear power plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment by using entry level systems engineering approach. This study contains how the initial concept for the risk assessment methodology has been developed. In this point of view, this work structured on three main phases: needs analysis (NA), concept exploration (CE), and concept definition (CD) through systems engineering (SE) approach. Traditionally, the SE process is applied to technical development programs but this study opens up a new avenue that SE can also be successfully applied to the development and optimization of the risk assessment model. This study provides a rational and systematic process for developing and selecting the best risk assessment model. This paper selects analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to assess NPP construction schedule delay risk for international project. As conclusion, the proposed concept and selected method can discriminate successfully and clearly among schedule delay risk assessment methods.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.9-16
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• 2016

The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 1th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.929-934
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• 2005

The complex and dynamic job nature and the ever-changing working environment of construction projects inevitably present uncertainties to construction operations. Identification, evaluation and control of uncertainties constitute main elements of risk management and critical tasks of project management in construction. This paper is focused on application of a simplified discrete-event simulation approach in management of schedule-overrun risks, each being the combination of the occurrence probability of an uncertain interruptive factor and its potential consequence in terms of time delay. A case study observed from a concreting operation in Hong Kong is converted into a simulation model and analyzed with an in-house-developed simulation package for demonstrating how the proposed approach can be implemented to manage multiple schedule-overrun risks on construction projects.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.397-402
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• 2013

In super-tall building construction projects, schedule risk factors which vertically change and are not found in the low and middle-rise building construction influence duration of a project by vertical attribute; and it makes hard to estimate activity or overall duration of a construction project. However, the existing duration estimating methods, that are based on quantity and productivity assuming activities of the same work item have the same risk and duration regardless of operation space, are not able to consider the schedule risk factors which change by the altitude of operation space. Therefore, in order to advance accuracy of duration estimation of super-tall building projects, the degree of changes of these risk factors according to altitude should be analyzed and incorporated into a duration estimating method. This research proposes a simulation model using Monte Carlo method for estimating activity duration incorporating schedule risk factors by weather conditions in a super-tall building. The research process is as follows. Firstly, the schedule risk factors in super-tall building are identified through literature and expert reviews, and occurrence of non-working days at high altitude by weather condition is identified as one of the critical schedule risk factors. Secondly, a calculating method of the vertical distributions of the weather factors such as temperature and wind speed is analyzed through literature reviews. Then, a probability distribution of the weather factors is developed using the weather database of the past decade. Thirdly, a simulation model and algorithms for estimating non-working days and duration of each activity is developed using Monte-Carlo method. Finally, sensitivity analysis and a case study are carried out for the validation of the proposed model.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.109-117
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• 2023

건설공사에서의 공기지연은 공사금액 증가, 발주처 클레임, 무리한 공기단축에 따른 건설공사의 질 하락 등 건설프로젝트에 악영향을 끼치는 주요 리스크 요인이다. 기존 연구에서는 공기지연 리스크의 중요도 및 우선순위를 파악하고 중요도에 따라 공정을 관리하였으나, 공기지연 리스크의 심도는 데이터 수집의 한계 등으로 정량화 연구가 미흡하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) 언어 모델을 활용하여 비정형데이터로 저장된 공사일지의 작업내용을 분석 가능한 WBS (Work Breakdown Structure) 기반의 정형데이터로 변환하고 리스크 분류 및 도출 체계, 공정계획에 사용가능한 리스크 발생확률, 리스크 확률분포(심도)의 정량화 방안을 제시하였다. 제안된 프로세스를 고속도로공사 8개 공구에 적용하여, 39개 세부 공중 중 8개의 세부 공종에서 75건의 우천 공기지연 리스크를 도출하였다. K-S 검정을 통해 4개 공종에서 유의미한 확률분포를 도출하였으며 위험도를 비교하였다. 향후 본 연구에서 제시된 프로세스는 시공단계에서 발생하는 다양한 공기지연 요인의 도출 및 심도 정량화에 적용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.47-56
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• 2009

정보화 사회로의 전환으로 대변되는 최근의 건설 환경 변화로 인하여 대형 건설업체는 정보관리사업에 투자를하고 있는 반면, 중소형 건설업체는 정보관리시스템의 필요성을 인식하고 있음에도 불구하고 기술력의 부재로 인하여 정보 관리에 문제점을 가지고 있다. 더욱이 중소형 건설업체는 경쟁력 강화를 위한 범용적인 정보관리시스템의 부재로 인하여 중장기적으로 경쟁력 강화를 위한 효율적인 공정관리와 공정리스크 관리에 문제점을 가질 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 IT시스템 기반이 미비한 중소형 건설업체를 대상으로 공정관리 업무 수행에 필요한 정보를 제공하고 건설프로젝트 수행과정에서 존재하는 공정리스크 요인에 대해서 프로젝트 초기단계와 착공 전 단계에서 미리 대비하며, 경험이 부족한 건설현장 실무자에게 공정리스크 관리지식을 제공하기 위한 시스템이 필요하다. IT시스템 중에서도 최근 웹상의 연계 기술과 네트워크의 힘으로 인해서 효율적인 KM 실행 도구로 인식되고 있는 블로그를 공정리스크관리와 연계시켜 활용함으로써 공사경험이 부족한 현장관리자가 시공단계에서 발생할 가능성이 높은 공정리스크에 대해 착공 이전 단계에서 확인하고 관리대상리스크 선정 및 대응방법의 기준을 마련하기 위해 공정리스크관리 지원도구로서 블로그 기반의 공정리스크 관리 시스템을 개발하였다.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.24-29
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• 2016

This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.362-379
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• 2015

In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1591-1598
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• 2009

Recently, the researches on the urban regeneration projects have been performed very actively. It is a part of the effort that solves some social and economical problems occurred by deteriorated buildings and degraded infrastructures through new urban regeneration projects or redevelopment projects. However, the urban regeneration projects show the characteristics that can not guarantee in the project performance because the projects have various and complex stakeholders related to these projects and are exposed to lots of risks due to its huge scale. This study proposed the risk performance index method to improve the efficiency of the overall performance measurement for a mega-project by extending from the traditional cost/schedule based performance measurement system. The risk performance index method proposed in this study has a similar system to the EVMS, and makes possible to perform a three dimensional integrated performance measurement in cost/schedule/risk through 18 different indexes that compose the risk performance index.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.101-110
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• 2008

건설공사의 성공적인 수행을 위한 다양한 건설관리기법들 중 리스크관리기법은 프로젝트 규모의 대형화, 신공법 적용 등에 의한 불확실한 요인의 증가에 의해 그 중요성이 부각되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 현장실무자들의 공정리스크 관리 업무를 지원하기 위해 공종별 공사프로세스 중심의 공정리스크 확인방법과 현장별 특성이 반영된 공정리스크 중요도 지수를 개발하였으며, 향후 타 현장에서의 적용을 고려한 공정 리스크 중요도 보정방법을 제안하였다. 또한 공정리스크 요인별 대응방안을 현장에서 공사일정에 따라 검색하고, 공정정보와 연계된 공정리스크 관리 업무의 출력기능을 갖춘 공정 리스크 관리지원 시스템 프로토타입을 개발하였다. 공정리스크 관리지원 시스템은 건설현장 실무자들이 공정리스크 관리업무를 수행하는 데 필요한 지식을 제공하여, 의사결정지연에 따른 공기 지연을 방지할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.