• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.337-352
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• 2013

Seismic performance of critical facilities has been focused on the structural components over the past decade. However, most earthquake damages were observed to the nonstructural components during and after the earthquakes. The primary objective of this research was to develop the seismic fragility of the piping system incorporating the nonlinear Tee-joint finite element model in the full scale piping configuration installed in critical facilities. The procedure for evaluating fragility curves corresponding to the first damage state was considered the effects of the top floor acceleration sensitivities for 5, 10, 15, and 20 story linear RC and steel building systems subjected to 22 selected ground motions as a function of ground motion uncertainties. The result of this study revealed that the conditional probability of failure of the piping system on the top floor in critical facilities did not increase with increased level of story height and in fact, story level in buildings can tune the fragilities between the building and the piping system.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.277-289
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• 2003

We propose modified exact inferential methods in logistic regression model. Exact conditional distribution in logistic regression model is often highly discrete, and ordinary exact inference in logistic regression is conservative, because of the discreteness of the distribution. For the exact inference in logistic regression model we utilize the modified P-value. The modified P-value can not exceed the ordinary P-value, so the test of size $\alpha$ based on the modified P-value is less conservative. The modified exact confidence interval maintains at least a fixed confidence level but tends to be much narrower. The approach inverts results of a test with a modified P-value utilizing the test statistic and table probabilities in logistic regression model.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
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• pp.540-544
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• 2009

Hydrologic pattern under climate change has been paid attention to as one of the most important issues in hydrologic science group. Rainfall and runoff is a key element in the Earth's hydrological cycle, and associated with many different aspects such as water supply, flood prevention and river restoration. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to evaluate design flood using simulation techniques which can consider a full spectrum of uncertainty. Here we utilize a weather state based stochastic multivariate model as conditional probability model for simulating the rainfall field. A major premise of this study is that large scale climatic patterns are a major driver of such persistent year to year changes in rainfall probabilities. Uncertainty analysis in estimating design flood is inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. A comprehensive discussion on design flood under climate change is provided.

• 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전자공학회 1999년도 하계종합학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1009-1012
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• 1999

An analytical performance model that can predict the performance of a superscalar processor employing multiple branch prediction is introduced. The model is based on the conditional independence probability and the basic block size of instructions, with the degree of multiple branch prediction, the fetch rate, and the window size of a superscalar architecture. Trace driven simulation is performed for the subset of SPEC integer benchmarks, and the measured IPCs are compared with the results derived from the model. As the result, our analytic model could predict the performance of the superscalar processor using multiple branch prediction within 6.6 percent on the average.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.93-99
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• 2023

This study aimed to determine relationships among risk factors influencing container port operation using Bayesian network. Risk factors identified from prior studies were classified into five groups: human error, machinery error, environmental risk, security risk, and natural disasters. P anel experts discussed identified risk factors to fulfil conditional probability tables of the interdependence model. The interdependence model was also validated by sensitivity analysis and provided an interrelation of factors influencing the direction of each other. Results of the interdependence model were partially in line with results from prior studies while practices in the global port industry confirmed interrelationships of risk factors. In addition, the relationship between top-ranked risk factors can provide a schematic drawing of the model. Accordingly, results of this study can expand the prior research in the Korean port industry, which may help port authorities improve risk management and reduce losses from the risk.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.763-782
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• 2019

텍스트 문서 집합에 대한 정보검색에서는 주어진 질의에 부합하는 각 문서의 적합도 확률을 계산하고 이 확률이 높은 것부터 낮은 순으로 문서 순위를 정하여 사용자에게 제공한다, 각 문서의 적합도 확률 계산에 많이 사용되는 모형은 단어들이 확률적으로 독립이라는 가정 하에 확률을 추정한다. 이 모형은 단어들의 결합 확률을 계산하는 것이 현실적으로 어렵다는 점에서 많이 이용되고 있지만 질의에 사용되는 단어들이 대개 서로 관련성을 가지고 있다는 사실을 고려하고 있지 않다. 본 논문에서는 단어 자질들의 의존 구조를 고려하여 문서의 적합도 확률을 계산하기 위하여 단어들의 결합 패턴의 확률을 다항분포 모형으로 가정하고, 최대 엔트로피 방법으로 확률을 추정하여 문서 순위를 매기는 정보검색 모형을 제안한다. 여러 가지 다항분포 상황에서 시뮬레이션 실험을 한 결과 변수들의 독립을 가정한 모형보다 더 우수한 추정 결과를 보여 준다. 실제 LETOR OHSUMED 데이터 이용한 문서 순위 매기기 실험의 결과도 더 나은 검색 결과를 보여 준다.

• 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.169-174
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• 2018

일반적으로 자료의 효과 연속형인 경우 분산분석과 이산형인 경우 분할표 카이제곱 검정을 통계적 분석방법으로 사용한다. 다차원의 자료에서는 계층적 구조의 분석이 요구되어지며 자료간의 인과관계를 나타내기 위해 통계적 선형모형을 채택하여 분석한다. 선형모형의 구조에서는 자료의 정규성이 요구되어지며 일부 자료에서는 비 선형모형을 채택할 수도 있다. 특히, 설문조사 자료 구조는 문항의 특성상 이산형 자료의 형태가 많아 모형의 조건에 만족하지 않는 경우가 종종 발생한다. 자료구조의 차원이 높아질수록 인과관계, 교호작용, 연관성분석 등에 다차원 범주형 자료 분석 방법을 사용한다. 본 논문에서는 확률분포의 계산을 이용한 베이지안 네트워크 모형이 범주형 자료 분석에서 분석절차를 줄이고 교호작용 및 인과관계를 분석할 수 있다는 것을 제시하였다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제59권8호
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• pp.1477-1481
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• 2010

In this paper, we propose the classification and tracking method of the hand region using deformable template and condensation. To do this, first, we extract the hand region by using the fuzzy color filter and HCbCr color model. Second, we extract the edge of hand by applying the Canny edge algorithm. Third, we find the first template by calculating the conditional probability between the extracted edge and the model edge. If the accurate template of the first object is decided, the condensation algorithm tries to track it. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method through some experiments.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.473-495
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• 2019

In this paper, a new extension of Lindley distribution has been introduced. Certain characterizations based on truncated moments, hazard and reverse hazard function, conditional expectation of the proposed distribution are presented. Besides, these characterizations, other statistical/mathematical properties of the proposed model are also discussed. The estimation of the parameters is performed through different classical methods of estimation. Bayes estimation is computed under gamma informative prior under the squared error loss function. The performances of all estimation methods are studied via Monte Carlo simulations in mean square error sense. The potential of the proposed model is analyzed through two data sets. A modified goodness-of-fit test using the Nikulin-Rao-Robson statistic test is investigated via two examples and is observed that the new extension might be used as an alternative lifetime model.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.241-250
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• 2015

경시적 자료 연구의 중요한 주제 중의 하나는 시간이 지남에 따라 개인의 건강 상태가 어떻게 변하는지를 추적하는 확률이다. 질병의 상태를 시간의 흐름에 따라 추적하는 것은 장기간에 걸친 임상적 관찰 연구의 계획과 분석, 그리고 질병의 예방과 치료에 중요한 의미를 지닌다. 본 논문에서는 두 다른 시점에서 각 개인의 건강 상태에 대한 조건부 확률을 추정해내는 순위 추적 확률에 대하여 연구하였다. 순위 추적 확률과 순위 추적 확률비를 추정하기 위하여 선형 혼합 효과 모형을 고려하였다. 본 논문의 방법은 아동을 대상으로 심혈관계 질환의 위험요인을 연구하는 역학 자료에 적용되었다.