• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1183-1188
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• 2009

Estimating project costs during the early stage of conceptual planning is very important when deciding whether to approve the project and allocate an appropriate budget. However, due to greater uncertainties involved in a project, it is challenging to estimate costs during this initial stage within a reasonable tolerance. This paper attempts to develop a cost-estimate model for public road projects under these circumstances and limitations. In the conceptual planning stage of a road project, there is only limited information for cost estimation, for example, such input data as total length of the route, origin and destination, number of lanes, general geographic characteristics of the route, and other basic attributes. This implies that the model should individuate suitable but restricted information without considering detailed features such as quantity of earthwork and a detailed route of a given condition. With these limited facts, this paper applies a case-based reasoning (CBR) method to solve a new problem by deriving similar past problems, which in turn is used to estimate the cost of a given project based on best-fitted previous cases. To develop a CBR cost-estimate model, the authors classified 8 representative variables, including project type, the number of lanes, total length, road design grades, etc. Then, we developed the CBR model, primarily by using 180 actual cases of public road projects, procured over the last decade. With the CBR model, it was found that the degree of error in estimation can be reasonably reduced, to below approximately 30% compared to the final costs estimated upon the completion of detailed design.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.141-150
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• 2019

In the overseas plant construction market, the domain construction firms' construction capability has been greatly improved, but the capability of project management is evaluated to be insufficient compared to the technical aspect. Project management capabilities from the initial planning stage of project execution are regarded as the core competence of advanced construction companies. Among them, it is urgent to improve the capacity of conceptual estimate for domestic companies. In this study, the researchers surveyed and analyzed the methodology of estimating project cost in the planning phase of the plant project and developed an estimation method by conducting a case study analysis. Based on the logic of the cost index and parametric estimation method among the existing estimation methodology, the estimation tool was developed by deriving the input and output variables tailored to the plant project. The validity of the proposed methodology was evaluated by comparing the accuracy between the project estimate amount of the case project and the actual project amount. In order to increase the utilization of the developed conceptual estimate methodology,for plant construction project, it is necessary to systematize the data of the historical project data. Increasing the accuracy of future project cost estimates is directly related to increasing project award and profitability of the domestic construction company.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.37 no.9
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• pp.923-930
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• 2009

In this paper, we introduce a satellite conceptual design software which can be used for outlining a new satellite as well as for educational purpose. This software consists of three commercial tools: MATLAB, STK(Satellite Tool Kit), and Excel. The management of the design software is done by MATLAB which provides basic calculations, GUI(Graphical User Interface), Excel data base management, and STK control. STK, an orbital simulation software developed by AGI, takes a part of obtaining accurate orbital information of a satellite. Excel, a product of Microsoft, is used for the data base of previous satellites and for the saving place of temporary and final results of the software. The conceptual design of a satellite is to roughly estimate power system and mass. In the power system design, the sizes of solar array and battery are determined. Based on the database of existing satellites, we can estimate the subsystems's mass fraction of a target satellite. Design examples for Kompsat 1 and 2 are suggested for verification of the developed software.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.111-120
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• 2009

The conceptual cost estimation used the construction project needs for confirm budget not only at the planning phase but also at the preliminary design phase of the construction project. Present, the conceptual cost estimation model have problems the rate of error is very large because the linear simple model calculate by use the cost of the unit meter or the unit square. This study development the model used grouping and the key quantity method, the mixed unit cost for solve problem of the very large rate of error. The result of this study reduced difference of between the real design construction cost therefor it expect that contribute to the client or the service company estimate budget of RC rahmen bridge.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.175-180
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• 2006

Total conceptual cost estimates and the assessment of the reliability of these estimates are critical in the early stages of a building construction project. The purpose of this study is to propose the method to clients or estimators for improving the reliability of conceptual cost estimates by evaluating the reliability of conceptual cost estimates. The data from 83 building construction projects were collected for this study. The results showed that the proposed method can propose alternatives to clients or estimators for improving the reliability of conceptual cost estimates with the process of evaluation, review and feedback. This process can assist clients in their evaluation of the reliability of the estimated cost and the probability of exceeding the target cost, and in their re-estimation after dealing with the elements that influence the conceptual cost estimate badly.

• 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.238-243
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• 2003

As there are many advantages on underground caverns, such as safety and operation, they can also be used for gas storage purpose. When liquefied gas is stored underground, the cryogenic temperature of the gas will affect the stability of the storage cavern. In order to store the liquefied gas successfully, it is essential to estimate the exact temperature distribution of the rock mass around the cavern. In this study, an analytic solution and a conceptual model that can estimate three-dimensional temperature distribution around the storage cavern are suggested. When calculating the heat transfer within a solid, it is likely to consider the solid as the intersection of two or more infinite or semi-infinite geometries. Therefore heat transfer solution for the solid is expressed by the product of the dimensionless temperatures of the geometries, which are used to form the combined solid. Based on the multi-dimensional transient heat transfer theory, the analytic solution is successfully derived by assuming the cavern shape to be of simplified geometry. Also, a conceptual model is developed by using the analytic solution of this study. By performing numerical experiments of this multi-dimensional model, the temperature distribution of the analytic solution is compared with that of numerical analysis and theoretical solutions.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.6-11
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• 2010

Embodying the safety of radioactive waste disposal requires the relevant safety criteria and the corresponding stylized methods to demonstrate its compliance with the criteria. This paper proposes a conceptual model of risk-based safety evaluation for integrating complex potential radiation exposure situations in radioactive waste disposal. For demonstrating compliance with a risk constraint, the approach deals with important exposure scenarios from the viewpoint of the receptor to estimate the resulting risk. For respective exposure situations, it considers the occurrence probabilities of the relevant exposure scenarios as their probability of giving rise to doses to estimate the total risk to a representative person by aggregating the respective risks. In this model, an exposure scenario is simply constructed with three components:radionuclide release, radionuclide migration and environment contamination, and interaction between the contaminated media and the receptor. A set of exposure scenarios and the representative person are established from reasonable combinations of the components, based on a balance of their occurrence probabilities and the consequences. In addition, the probability of an exposure scenario is estimated on the assumption that the initiating external factors influence release mechanisms and transport pathways, and its effect on the interaction between the environment and the receptor may be covered in terms of the representative person. This integrated approach enables a systematic risk assessment for complex exposure situations of radioactive waste disposal and facilitates the evaluation of compliance with risk constraints.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.475-478
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• 2013

To carry out a one-off construction project successfully, effective and accurate early cost estimation is crucial, especially during the conceptual stage where very limited minimum information of construction project is given. As the level of accuracy of the early cost estimation has huge impacts on precise budgeting and cost management of a project, in other words, reducing the risk of a project, cost must be managed with special awareness. In an effort to improve the estimate accuracy of cost during the conceptual stage, this research introduces a Parameter Impact (PI) which can quantify weights of parameters and rank them; and PI development derived from the principle of impulse in physics is explicated. For a case study, 76 public apartment building cases in Korea are analyzed. To examine the validity of the proposed PI, a validation in terms of CBR applicability test and estimate accuracy comparisons using 10-nearest neighbor cases are carried out. The validation results support that the suggested PI can be applied in quantifying the weights of the parameters and CBR method for early cost estimation.

• Atmosphere
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.131-151
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• 2010

This study establishes a conceptual model to analyze heavy rainfall events in Korea using multi-functional transport satellite-1R satellite images. Three heavy rainfall episodes in two major synoptic types, such as synoptic low (SL) type and synoptic flow convergence (SC) type, are analyzed through a conceptual model procedure which proceeds on two steps: 1) conveyer belt model analysis to detect convective area, and 2) cloud top temperature analysis from black body temperature (TBB) data to distinguish convective cloud from stratiform cloud, and eventually estimate heavy rainfall area and intensity. Major synoptic patterns causing heavy rainfall are Changma, synoptic low approach, upper level low in the SL type, and upper level low, indirect effect of typhoon, convergence of tropical air in the SC type. The relationship between rainfall and TBBs in overall well resolved areas of heavy rainfall. The SC type tended to underestimate the intensity of heavy rainfall, but the analysis with the use of water vapor channel has improved the performance. The conceptual model improved a concrete utilization of images and data of satellite, as summarizing characteristics of major synoptic type causing heavy rainfall and composing an algorism to assess the area and intensity of heavy rainfall. The further assessment with various cases is required for the operational use.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.3-13
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• 2010

The purpose of this research is to develop a conceptual model that establishes a new approach for functional area cost estimating in the schematic design phase. A cost estimating model should consider not only the estimate accuracy, but also the flexibility to the design alternatives and user-oriented serviceability. Therefore, this research uses the method that classifies various facilities of a building according to its functions by analyzing historical data. After setting the functional area as cost parameter, a formula which can estimate functional area cost is derived from statistical analysis. Finally, to validate the proposed conceptual model, it is applied to historical data of a military barrack project. It enables customized space planning reflecting client's needs and compares the cost of various design alternatives as well as improves estimate accuracy.