• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.106-106
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• 2011

소수력은 온실가스 배출량이 적은 친환경 청정에너지원이면서 지역의 분산전원에 기여할 수 있는 유용한 자원으로 평가되고 있다. 이러한 여건은 소수력발전 사업이 전력의 smart grid 구축 효과로 인해 가장 큰 효율성을 달성할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 국내 소수력발전은 1500Mw의 부존량을 가진 것으로 평가되고 있으나 계절적 편중으로 인한 가동률 부족, 경제성 부족 등으로 활발한 보급이 이루어지지 않고 있다. 특히 신재생에너지 확대 전략에도 불구하고 지원금 등 경제적 인센티브 부족으로 인해 민간부문의 참여는 상당히 저조하다. 그럼에도 불구하고 수력에너지는 환경친화적이고 잠재성이 큰 신재생에너지로 온실가스 저감과 에너지 확보에 기여할 수 있다. 특히 수력에너지는 민간투자의 어려움이 존재하므로 정부의 장기적인 기술개발투자 및 효율성 확대 정책이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 소수력 확대의 경제 환경적 효과를 평가해보기 위해 연산일반균형모형 (CGE :Computable General Equilibrium Model)을 구축한다. 본 연구는 다음과 같이 수행되었다. 첫째, 수력발전부문과 수도사업을 구분하고 사회회계행렬을 작성하였으며, 전력부문에서 수력발전을 포함한 다단계 생산구조를 가정하였다. 둘째, 일반균형모형 방정식 체계를 작성하고 모형의 파라미터 추정 등 보정(Calibration) 작업을 수행하였다. 셋째, 국가 중기 온실가스저감 시나리오를 적용한 전망을 수행하고 소수력 확대(투자지원) 시나리오를 구축한다. 본 연구는 저감수단으로 탄소세를 부과하였다. 끝으로, 소수력 발전 보급 확대의 경제적, 환경적 파급효과를 계산하였다. 분석결과, 소수력 발전 잠재 성장을 반영한 수력에너지 비중은 약 2020년에 약 4.5% 까지 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이로 인한 온실가스 저감 기여분은 약 3%에 이르는 것으로 계산 되었다. 또한 수도사업과 비에너지 제조업의 산업비중은 증가하였다. 이러한 결과는 소수력 발전 확대가 화석연료 대체를 통한 지속가능한 에너지 수요에 기여하고 지역개발과 물산업 발전 등 경제적 파급효과 등을 유발할 수 있음을 시사한다. 또한 본 연구에서 고려하지 못한 소수력 기술 개발은 에너지 대체 촉진으로 인한 온실가스 저감과 녹색성장에 기여할 것이다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.371-416
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• 2012

This study has developed Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model reflecting endogenous growth economic theory, with the aim of analyzing double dividend hypothesis. This study analyzes possibility of economic growth and environmental improvement at the same time when government recycles the revenue of carbon tax to reduce existed taxes such as consumption tax, labor income tax, corporate tax. It also assesses the case of subsidy on R&D investment of renewable energy. With new and renewable generation technology adopted and disseminated, GDP loss would be lessened to a great degree. Tax recycling would provide economic gain by reducing distortion existed in the existing fiscal structure. The magnitude of economic gains from carbon tax recycling is biggest for recycling into corporate tax, and labor income tax, and then consumption tax in this order. It is also shown that double dividend effects occur in dynamic terms when government uses a carbon tax revenue to subsidize on R&D investment. At the end of the analysis period, emissions reduction would not result in GDP loss but in GDP gain. In particular, recycling into R&D increase would produce the largest and fastest GDP gain. Thus, implementing emissions reduction target would require careful consideration of economic effects by various policy instrument, including carbon tax.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.591-642
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• 2006

This paper intends to analyze economic impacts of commitment period and initial allocation in emissions trading using computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The fully dynamic CGE model with perfect foresight assumption is employed to illustrate (i) how a model displays economic impact of $CO_2$ regulation upon different commitment periods: one-year budget clearing vs. 5-year commitment period, (ii) how major 8 energy-intensive industries respond to different ways to allocate initial allowances. According to the results of the analysis, it IS found that market players are motivated to bank the permits and tend to sell permits in earlier stage and to buy permits in later stage of commitment period. This implies that banking allows permit trading within a commitment period, which supports the conclusions of Kling and Rubin (1997). Other findings are related to efficiency. That is, emissions trading surpasses command and control, in terms of economic efficiency and longer terms of commitment period converge on lower permit price, In long term, initial allocation based on value-added performs the lowest GDP loss among different initial allocations.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.95-126
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to quantify the potential economic effects of Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA) negotiations of the WTO on automotive industry of the world using a multi-region, multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with 21 countries/regions and 22 sectors. According to the December 2008 NAMA modalities text, issued by the chair of the negotiation on NAMA, three different scenarios of tariff liberalization of NAMA are conducted on the basis of the Swiss formula with a coefficient of 8 for developed members and 20 for developing (scenario 1), with a coefficient of 8 for developed members and 22 for developing (scenario 2) and with a coefficient of 8 for developed members and 25 for developing (scenario 3). Simulation results show potential economic effects at the macroeconomic and microeconomic level of 21 countries concerned. In particular, Korea is to be one of the winners of tariff liberalization of NAMA in the WTO and Korean automotive industry is to benefit from it to a large extent in terms of its output, domestic sales, exports and trade balance, which implies that Korea needs to actively engage in NAMA negotiations of the WTO.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.95-133
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• 2006

This research first reviewed and analysed the current domestic situation of the voluntary agreement implementation and then it developed the policy implementation scenarios which will be applied to the model, KORTEM_ V.2. The model, consisted with 83 industries and commodities, examined the economic and environmental impacts of this policy instrument. Depending on the efforts of participating sectors and agents for fuel substitution and energy efficiency improvement, it has been evaluated that the voluntary agreement could be the "no-regret" policy. In other words, if the participating sectors and agents can achieve the voluntary energy conservation and emission reduction target without the negative impact on output level, the reduction of national emission will be achieved by creating the economic benefit, simultaneously. Therefore, for the successful implementation of voluntary agreement, this study emphasized the importance of expansion and strengthening of the current financial and institutional support for participating sectors and agents.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.45-64
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• 2022

Purpose - This paper examines South Korea's potential status as a carbon leakage country, and the level of risk posed by the Korean emissions trading scheme (ETS) for Korean industries. The economic effects of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) to protect energy-intensive Korean industries in the process of achieving the carbon reduction target by 2030 through the Korean ETS are also analyzed. Design/methodology - First, using the Korean Input-Output (IO) table, this paper calculates the balance of emissions embodied in trade (BEET) and the pollution terms of trade (PTT) to determine Korean industries' carbon leakage status. Analyses of the risk level posed by carbon reduction policy implementation in international trade are conducted for some sectors by applying the EU criteria. Second, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, three BCA scenarios, exemption regulations (EXE), reimbursement (REB), and tariff reduction (TAR) to protect the energy-intensive industries under the Korean ETS are addressed. Compared to the baseline scenario of achieving carbon reduction targets by 2030, the effects of BCAs on welfare, carbon leakage, outputs, and trading are analyzed. Findings - As Korea's industrial structure has been transitioning from a carbon importing to a carbon leaking country. The results indicate that some industrial sectors could face the risk of losing international competitiveness due to the Korean ETS. South Korea's industries are basically exposed to risk of carbon leakage because most industries have a trade intensity higher than 30%. This could be interpreted as disproving vulnerability to carbon leakage. Although the petroleum and coal sector is not in carbon leakage, according to BEET and PTT, the Korean ETS exposes this sector to a high risk of carbon leakage. Non-metallic minerals and iron and steel sectors are also exposed to a high risk of carbon leakage due to the increased burden of carbon reduction costs embodied in the Korean ETS, despite relatively low levels of trade intensity. BCAs are demonstrated to have an influential role in protecting energy-intensive industries while achieving the carbon reduction target by 2030. The EXE scenario has the greatest impact on mitigation of welfare losses and carbon leakage, and the TAF scenario causes a disturbance in the international trade market because of the pricing adjustment system. In reality, the EXE scenario, which implies completely exempting energy-intensive industries, could be difficult to implement due to various practical constraints, such as equity and reduction targets and other industries; therefore, the REB scenario presents the most realistic approach and appears to have an effect that could compensate for the burden of economic activities and emissions regulations in these industries. Originality/value - This paper confirms the vulnerability of the Korean industrial the risk of carbon leakage, demonstrating that some industrial sectors could be exposed to losing international competitiveness by implementing carbon reduction policies such as the Korean ETS. The contribution of this paper is the identification of proposed approaches to protect Korean industries in the process of achieving the 2030 reduction target by analyzing the effects of BCA scenarios using a CGE model.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.8
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• pp.502-507
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• 2016

The transition from a carbon economy based on fossil fuels to a hydrogen economy is necessary to ensure energy security and to combat climate change. In order to pursue the transition to a hydrogen economy while achieving sustainable economic growth, a preliminary study into the establishment of the necessary infrastructure for the future hydrogen economy needs to be carried out. This study addresses the economic and environmental interactions in a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model focusing on the economic effects of the introduction of renewable energy into the Korean energy system. Firstly, the introduction of hydrogen results in an increase in the investment in hydrogen production and the reduction of the production cost, ultimately leading to GDP growth. Secondly, the mandatory introduction of renewable energy and associated government subsidies bring about a reduction in total demand. Additionally, the mandatory introduction of hydrogen energy into the power sector helps to reduce CO2 emissions through the transition from a carbon economy-based on fossil energy to a hydrogen economy. This means that hydrogen energy needs to come from non-fossil fuel sources in order for greenhouse gases to be effectively reduced. Therefore, it seems necessary for policy support to be strengthened substantially and for additional studies to be conducted into the production of hydrogen energy from renewable sources.