• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.43-50
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• 2014

Based on the reliability theory, the risk assessment of steel beams is performed by the determination of failure probability. In the calculation, bending, shearing and combined (bending + shearing) modes are examined. The resistance and the loads on the beam are assumed to be normal distribution. To investigate the failure probability changes, total load applied at the mid span of beam is divided into 1 to 1 and 1 to 2 ratio and then these divided loads are placed on the trisected points on beam. The change of boundary conditions at beam ends are also included in the investigation. It shows that failure is governed by the combined mode for the present beams and the second order bound analysis of failure probability is not crucial. On the whole failure probability decreases with increasing end restraints at the beam ends with some exception.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.13-23
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• 2007

This paper focuses on providing a practical approach for decision making in Performance-Based Design (PBD). Satisfactory performance is defined by several performance objectives that place limits on direct (monetary) loss and on a tolerable probability of collapse. No specific limits are placed on conventional engineering parameters such as forces or deformations, although it is assumed that sound capacity design principles are followed in the design process. The proposed design procedure incorporates different performance objectives up front, before the structural system is created, and assists engineers in making informed decisions on the choice of an effective structural system and its stiffness (period), base shear strength, and other important global structural parameters. The tools needed to implement this design process are (1) hazard curves for a specific ground motion intensity measure, (2) mean loss curves for structural and nonstructural subsystems, (3) structural response curves that relate, for different structural systems, a ground motion intensity measure to the engineering demand parameter (e.g., interstory drift or floor acceleration) on which the subsystem loss depends, and (4) collapse fragility curves. Since the proposed procedure facilitates decision making in the conceptual design process, it is referred to as a Design Decision Support System, DDSS. Implementation of the DDSS is illustrated in an example to demonstrate its practicality.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.391-405
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• 2020

The use of passive energy dissipation devices has been widely used in the construction industry to minimize the probability of damage occurred under intense ground motion. In this study, collapse margin ratio (CMR) and fragility curves are the main parameters in the assessment to characterize the collapse safety of the structures. The assessment is done on three types of RC frame structures, incorporating three types of dampers, viscoelastic, friction, and BRB dampers. The Incremental dynamic analyses (IDA) were performed by simulating an array of 20 strong ground motion (SGM) records considering both far-field and near-field seismic scenarios that were followed by fragility curves. With respect to far-field ground motion records, the CMR values of the selected frames indicate to be higher and reachable to safety margin more than those under near-field ground motion records that introduce a high devastating impact on the structures compared to far-field excitations. This implies that the near field impact affects the ground movements at the site by attenuation the direction and causing high-frequency filtration. Besides that, the results show that the viscoelastic damper gives better performance for the structures in terms of reducing the damages compared to the other energy dissipation devices during earthquakes.

• International journal of steel structures
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.1684-1698
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• 2018

Fragility functions are determined for braced steel moment frames (SMFs) with plans such as square-, T-, L-, U-, trapezoidal-, and semicircular-shaped, subjected to blast. The frames are designed for gravity and seismic loads, but not necessarily for the blast loads. The blast load is computed for a wide range of scenarios involving different parameters, viz. charge weight, standoff distance, and blast location relative to plan of the structure followed by nonlinear dynamic analysis of the frames. The members failing in rotation lead to partial collapse due to plastic mechanism formation. The probabilities of partial collapse of the SMFs, with and without bracing system, due to the blast loading are computed to plot fragility curves. The charge weight and standoff distance are taken as Gaussian random input variables. The extent of propagation of the uncertainties in the input parameters onto the response quantities and fragility of the SMFs is assessed by computing Sobol sensitivity indices. The probabilistic analysis is conducted using Monte Carlo simulations. The frames have least failure probability for blasts occurring in front of their corners or convex face. Further, the unbraced frames are observed to have higher fragility as compared to counterpart braced frames for far-off detonations.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.83 no.2
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• pp.229-244
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• 2022

This paper investigates the seismic performance of buildings designed using DDBD (Direct Displacement based Design) and FBD (Force based Design) approaches from the probabilistic viewpoint. It aims to estimate the collapse capacity of structures and assess the adequacy of seismic design codes. In this regard, (i) IDA (Incremental Dynamic Analysis) curves, (ii) interstory drift demand distribution curves, (iii) fragility curves, and (iv) the methodology provided by FEMA P-695 are applied to examine two groups of RC moment resistant frame buildings: 8-story structures with different plans, to study the effect of different span arrangements; and 3-, 7- and 12-story structures with a fixed plan, to study the dynamic behavior of the buildings. Structural modeling is performed in OpenSees software and validated using the results of an experimental model. It is concluded that increasing the building height would not significantly affect the response estimation of IDA and fragility curves of DDBD-designed structures, while the change in span arrangements is effective in estimating responses. In the investigation of the code adequacy, unlike the FBD approach, the DDBD can satisfy the performance criteria presented in FEMA P-695 and hence provide excellent performance.

• Explosives and Blasting
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.1-8
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• 2023

On August 4, 2020, 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a storage warehouse at the Port of Beirut exploded. This explosion is said to be the largest ammonium nitrate explosion ever. By applying the TNT equivalency method, TNT equivalent amount corresponding to the explosion energy of 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate was calculated, and it is found to be 856 tons. Overpressure and impulse were calculated in a range up to 3600 m from the blast using the Kingery-Bulmash explosion parameter calculator tool. As the distance from the explosion center increases, the overpressure and impulse decrease exponentially, but the overpressure decreases more significantly, showing that overpressure is more affected by distance than the impact. As a result of applying the damage criteria to evaluate the effects of overpressure and impulse on the structure, the critical distances at which partial collapse, major damage, and minor damage to the structure occur are found to be approximately 500, 800, and 2200 m from the center of the explosion, respectively. The probit function was applied to evaluate the probability of damage to structures and human body. The points where the probability of collapse, major damage, minor damage, and breakage of window-panes to structures are greater than 50% are found to be approximately 500, 810, 2200, and 3200 m, respectively. For people within 200 m from the center of the explosion, the probability of death due to lung damage is more than 99%, and the 50% probability of eardrum rupture is approximately 300 m. The points with a 100% probability of death due to skull rupture and whole body impact due to whole body displacement are evaluated to be 300 and 100 m, respectively.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2006.03a
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• pp.201-208
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• 2006

This study lotuses on the seismic behavior of 3-, 9-, and 20-story steel moment resisting frame (MRF) structures designed in accordance with the 2000 International Building Code using different Response Modification factors (R factors) 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12. For a detailed case study, 30 different structures were evaluated for twenty ground motions representing the hazard level which is equal to a 2% probability exceeding in 50 years (2% in 50 years). The results showed that the current R factors provide conservative designs for the 3- and 9-story buildings for the Collapse Prevention performance objective. However, the 20-story buildings designed without using the minimum requirement of spectral acceleration CS prescribed in the IBC 2000 did not satisfy the seismic performance for Collapse Prevention performance.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.22 no.10 s.175
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• pp.137-143
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• 2005

The integrity of steam generator tubes in nuclear power plant should be maintained sufficiently during operation. For sake of this, complicated assessment procedures are required such as fracture mechanics analysis, etc. The integrity assessment of tubes has been performed by using conventional deterministic approaches while there are many uncertainties to carry out a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic integrity assessment is considered as an alternative method for integrity assessment. The objectives of this study are to develop an integrity assessment system based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and to predict the failure probability of steam generator tubes containing an axial through-wall crack. The developed integrity assessment system consists of three evaluation modules, which apply first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method, respectively. The system has been applied to predict failure probability of steam generator tubes and the estimation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment system.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.81 no.4
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• pp.429-441
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• 2022

A probabilistic assessment of the seismic-excited buildings with a multiple-tuned-mass-damper (MTMD) system is carried out in the presence of uncertainties of the structural model, MTMD system, and the stochastic model of the seismic excitations. A free search optimization procedure of the individual mass, stiffness and, damping parameters of the MTMD system based on the snap-drift cuckoo search (SDCS) optimization algorithm is proposed for the optimal design of the MTMD system. Considering a 10-story structure in three cases equipped with single tuned mass damper (STMS), 5-TMD and 10-TMD, sensitivity analyses are carried out using Sobol' indices based on the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Considering different seismic performance levels, the reliability analyses are done using MCS and kriging-based MCS methods. The results show the maximum structural responses are more affected by changes in the PGA and the stiffness coefficients of the structural floors and TMDs. The results indicate the kriging-based MCS method can estimate the accurate amount of failure probability by spending less time than the MCS. The results also show the MTMD gives a significant reduction in the structural failure probability. The effect of the MTMD on the reduction of the failure probability is remarkable in the performance levels of life safety and collapse prevention. The maximum drift of floors may be reduced for the nominal structural system by increasing the TMDs, however, the complexity of the MTMD model and increasing its corresponding uncertainty sources can be caused a slight increase in the failure probability of the structure.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.6
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• pp.785-791
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• 2023

Risk management is essential for preventing accidents arising from uncertainties in TBM tunnel projects, especially concerning managing the risk of TBM tunnel collapse, which can cause extensive damage from the tunnel face to the ground surface. In addition, prioritizing risks is necessary to allocate resources efficiently within time and cost constraints. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a TBM risk database through case studies of TBM accidents and determine a risk priority for TBM tunnel collapse using the Bayes theorem. The database consisted of 87 cases, dealing with three accidents and five geological sources. Applying the Bayes theorem to the database, it was found that fault zones and weak ground significantly increased the probability of tunnel collapse, while the other sources showed low correlations with collapse. Therefore, the risk priority for TBM tunnel collapse, considering geological sources, is as follows: 1) Fault zone, 2) Weak ground, 3) Mixed ground, 4) High in-situ stress, and 5) Expansive ground. In practice, the derived risk priority can serve as a valuable reference for risk management, enhancing the safety and efficiency of TBM construction. It provides guidance for developing appropriate countermeasure plans and allocating resources effectively to mitigate the risk of TBM tunnel collapse.