• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.234-234
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• 2015

The global patterns of annual and extreme precipitation are projected to be altered by climate change. There are various weather systems which bring precipitation (e.g. tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone, etc.). It is possible in some regions that multiple weather systems affect the changes of precipitation. However, previous studies have assessed only the changes of precipitation associated with individual weather systems. The relative contributions of the weather systems to the changes of precipitation have not been quantified yet. Also, the changes of the relative importance of weather systems have not been assessed. This study present the quantitative estimates of 1) the relative contributions of weather systems (tropical cyclone (TC), extratropical cyclone (ExC), and "others") to the future changes of annual and extreme precipitation and 2) the changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system in annual and extreme precipitation based on CMIP5 generation GCM outputs. Weather systems are objectively detected from twelve GCM outputs and six models are selected for further analysis considering the reproducibility of weather systems. In general, the weather system which is dominant in terms of producing precipitation in the present climate contributes the most to the changes of annual and extreme precipitation in each region. However, there are exceptions for the tendency. In East Asia, "others", which ranks the second in the proportion of annual precipitation in present climate, has the largest contribution to the increase of annual precipitation. It was found that the increase of the "others" annual precipitation in East Asia is mainly explained by the changes of that in summer season (JJA), most of which can be regarded as the summer monsoon precipitation. In Southeast Asia, "others" precipitation, the second dominant system in the present climate, has the largest contribution to the changes of very heavy precipitation (>99.9 percentile daily precipitation of historical period). Notable changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system are found mainly in subtropics, which can be regarded as the "hotspot" of the precipitation regime shift.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.851-864
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• 2015

This study analyzed the climate regime shift using statistical change-point analysis on the time-series tropical cyclone (TC) frequency that affected Japan in July to September. The result showed that there was a significant change in 1995 and since then, it showed a trend of rapidly decreasing frequency. To determine the reason for this, differences between 1995 to 2012 (9512) period and 1978 to 1994 (7894) period were analayzed. First, regarding TC genesis, TCs during the 9512 period showed a characteristic of genesis from the southeast quadrant of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and TCs during the 7894 period showed their genesis from the northwest quadrant. Regarding a TC track, TCs in the 7894 period had a strong trend of moving from the far east sea of the Philippines via the East China Sea to the mid-latitude region in East Asia while TCs in the 9512 period showed a trend of moving from the Philippines toward the southern part of China westward. Thus, TC intensity in the 7894 period, which can absorb sufficient energy from the sea as they moved a long distance over the sea, was stronger than that of 9512. Large-scale environments were analyzed to determine the cause of such difference in TC activity occurred between two periods. During the 9512 period, anomalous cold and dry anticyclones were developed strongly in the East Asia continent. As a result, Korea and Japan were affected by the anomalous northerlies thereby preventing TCs in this period from moving toward the mid-latitude region in East Asia. Instead, anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) were developed in the tropical western Pacific so that a high passage frequency from the Philippine to the south China region along the anomalous steering flows was revealed. The characteristics of the anomalous cold and dry anticyclone developed in the East Asia continent were also confirmed by the analysis of air temperature, relative humidity and sensible heat net flux showing that most regions in East Asia had negative values.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.186-194
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• 2013

We compiled and analyzed long-term time-series data collected in Korea to evaluate changes in oceanographic conditions and marine ecosystems near Jeju Island ($33^{\circ}00^{\prime}-34^{\circ}00^{\prime}\;N$, $125^{\circ}30^{\prime}-127^{\circ}30^{\prime}\;E$) from 1981 to 2010. Environmental data included depth-specific time series of temperature and salinity that have been measured bimonthly since 1961 in water columns at 175 fixed stations along 22 oceanographic lines in Korean waters by the National Fisheries Research & Development Institute, and time series of estimated volume transport of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) and Korea Strait Bottom Cold Water (KSBCW) for the period from 1961 to 2008. We analyzed the species composition in terms of biomass of fish species caught by Korean fishing vessels in the waters near Jeju Island (1981-2010). Data were summarized and related to environmental changes using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). The CCA detected major shifts in fish community structure between 1982 and 1983 and between 1990 and 1992; the dominant species were a filefish during 1981-1992 and chub mackerel from 1992 to 2007. CCA suggested that water temperature and salinity in the mixed layer and the volume transport of the TWC and the KSBCW were significantly related to the long-term changes in the fish community in the waters off Jeju Island. Fish community shifts seemed to be related to the well-established 1989 regime shift in the North Pacific. Further studies are required to elucidate the mechanisms driving climate change effects on the thermal windows and habitat ranges of commercial species to develop fisheries management plans based on reliable projections of long-term changes in the oceanographic conditions in waters off Jeju Island.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.331-336
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• 2010

The CREAMS (Circulation Research of the East Asian Marginal Sea) survey in 1999 revealed a sharp mid-depth discontinuity of the phosphate:silicate ratio in all basins of the East/Japan Sea. Incidentally, this discontinuity layer corresponds to the oxygen minimum layer. Directly below the discontinuity layer, oxygen concentration is increased. This increase in oxygen concentration is interpreted as a proof of intermediate water formation. Oxygen minimum indicates that the water parcel is old and stable against mixing. So it seems be an efficient barrier to vertical exchange of materials. This means that, once materials enter the lower domain, they rarely return to the upper domain. Therefore, the biogeochemistry of the East/Japan Sea depends heavily on material input through the Korea Strait, and flux is expected to be sensitive to the climate change. As a result, the East/Japan Sea ecosystem seems vulnerable to tipping (regime shift), which occurred on a decadal time scale.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.184-203
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• 2013

This study analyzes the variability of Korean summer rainfall associated with the tropical low-frequency oscillation using long-term observation data. From the EOF analysis, the first mode showed opposite phase between the South and the North Korea with the regime shift in rainfall variability since the mid-1990s. The summer precipitation over South Korea tends to increase in southern part during strong El Ni$\tilde{n}$o where the warm sea surface temperature extends to far eastern tropical Pacific. In weak La Ni$\tilde{n}$a, the increased precipitation directly influences from the western tropical Pacific to the mid-latitude. In June, the rainfall over South Korea is positively correlated with the Indian Summer Monsoon while in July, it is negatively correlated with the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon. In August, highly negative correlation between the rainfall over South Korea and the Indian Summer Monsoon is found.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.75-87
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• 2017

In recent decades, extreme events have been significantly increased over the Korean Peninsula due to climate variability and climate change. The potential changes in hydrologic cycle associated with the extreme events increase uncertainty in water resources planning and designing. For these reasons, a reliable changing point analysis is generally required to better understand regime changes in hydrologic time series at watershed scale. In this study, a hierarchical changing point analysis approach that can apply in a watershed scale is developed by combining the existing changing point analysis method and hierarchical Bayesian method. The proposed model was applied to the selected stations that have annual rainfall data longer than 40 years. The results showed that the proposed model can quantitatively detect the shift in precipitation in the middle of 1990s and identify the increase in annual precipitation compared to the several decades prior to the 1990s. Finally, we explored the changes in precipitation and sea level pressure in the context of large-scale climate anomalies using reanalysis data, for a given change point. It was concluded that the identified large-scale patterns were substantially different from each other.

• Journal of Marine Life Science
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.14-21
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• 2019

This review paper discussed the decadal fluctuations in the catch of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus (T. pacificus) by focusing on migration and distribution patterns. Since 1980s, changes in T. pacificus catches were due to climate regime shift in Korean waters. Fluctuation patterns of catches were different between the East Sea and the Yellow Sea. Generally PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) phase shows a negative correlation with strength of warm current to the East Sea. In 1980s when PDO was positive phase (+), T. pacificus catch was higher in the Yellow, but it was lower in the East Sea. In 1990s when PDO was negative phase (-), T. pacificus catch showed opposite trend compared with 1980s. Such spatial and decadal fluctuations of T. pacificus catch were due to its northward migration along with the warm current or southward movement against the current. In the East Sea, strong (weak) warm current period, the current path has been shifted toward the East Sea coast of Korea (central East Sea or the coast of Japan). It has a correlation with PDO. In the positive PDO phase (1980s), the fishing ground was located on the eastern side of Ulleungdo, whereas during negative PDO phase (1990s), they were situated near the southeastern coast of the Korean peninsula. In the 1980s, volume transport passing into the Yellow Sea increased, whereas volume transport in the East Sea decreased. This is one of major reason increasing T. pacificus larvae in the Yellow Sea.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.292-302
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• 2012

This paper reviews comparison analysis of current and latest application for stock identification methods of Todarodes pacificus, and the pros and cons of each method and consideration of how to compensate for each other. Todarodes pacificus which migrates wide areas in western North Pacific is important fishery resource ecologically and commercially. Todarodes pacificus is also considered as 'biological indicator' of ocean environmental changes. And changes in its short and long term catch and distribution area occur along with environmental changes. For example, while the catch of pollack, a cold water fish, has dramatically decreased until today after the climate regime shift in 1987/1988, the catch of Todarodes pacificus has been dramatically increased. Regarding the decrease in pollack catch, overfishing and climate changes were considered as the main causes, but there has been no definite reason until today. One of the reasons why there is no definite answer is related with no proper analysis about ecological and environmental aspects based on stock identification. Subpopulation is a group sharing the same gene pool through sexual reproduction process within limited boundaries having similar ecological characteristics. Each individual with same stock might be affected by different environment in temporal and spatial during the process of spawning, recruitment and then reproduction. Thereby, accurate stock analysis about the species can play an efficient alternative to comply with effective resource management and rapid changes. Four main stock analysis were applied to Todarodes pacificus: Morphologic Method, Ecological Method, Tagging Method, Genetic Method. Ecological method is studies for analysis of differences in spawning grounds by analysing the individual ecological change, distribution, migration status, parasitic state of parasite, kinds of parasite and parasite infection rate etc. Currently the method has been studying lively can identify the group in the similar environment. However It is difficult to know to identify the same genetic group in each other. Tagging Method is direct method. It can analyse cohort's migration, distribution and location of spawning, but it is very difficult to recapture tagged squids and hard to tag juveniles. Genetic method, which is for useful fishery resource stock analysis has provided the basic information regarding resource management study. Genetic method for stock analysis is determined according to markers' sensitivity and need to select high multiform of genetic markers. For stock identification, isozyme multiform has been used for genetic markers. Recently there is increase in use of makers with high range variability among DNA sequencing like mitochondria, microsatellite. Even the current morphologic method, tagging method and ecological method played important rolls through finding Todarodes pacificus' life cycle, migration route and changes in spawning grounds, it is still difficult to analyze the stock of Todarodes pacificus as those are distributed in difference seas. Lately, by taking advantages of each stock analysis method, more complicated method is being applied. If based on such analysis and genetic method for improvement are played, there will be much advance in management system for the resource fluctuation of Todarodes pacificus.