• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate factor

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Development of a Prediction Technique for Debris Flow Susceptibility in the Seoraksan National Park, Korea (설악산 국립공원 지역 토석류 발생가능성 평가 기법의 개발)

  • Lee, Sung-Jae;Kim, Gil Won;Jeong, Won-Ok;Kang, Won-Seok;Lee, Eun-Jai
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.1
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 2021
  • Recently, climate change has gradually accelerated the occurrence of landslides. Among the various effects caused by landslides,debris flow is recognized as particularly threatening because of its high speed and propagating distance. In this study, the impacts of various factors were analyzed using quantification theory(I) for the prediction of debris flow hazard soil volume in Seoraksan National Park, Korea. According to the range using the stepwise regression analysis, the order of impact factors was as follows: vertical slope (0.9676), cross slope (0.6876), altitude (0.2356), slope gradient (0.1590), and aspect (0.1364). The extent of the normalized score using the five-factor categories was 0 to 2.1864, with the median score being 1.0932. The prediction criteria for debris flow occurrence based on the normalized score were divided into four grades: class I, >1.6399; class II, 1.0932-1.6398; class III, 0.5466-1.0931; and class IV, <0.5465. Predictions of debris flow occurrence appeared to be relatively accurate (86.3%) for classes I and II. Therefore, the prediction criteria for debris flow will be useful for judging the dangerousness of slopes.

A study on estimation of lowflow indices in ungauged basin using multiple regression (다중회귀분석을 이용한 미계측 유역의 갈수지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Ga Kyun;Jeung, Se Jin;Kim, Byung Sik;Chae, Soo Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1193-1201
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to develop a regression model that estimates a low-flow index that can be applied to ungauged basins. A total of 30 midsized basins in South Korea use long-term runoff data provided by the National Integrated Water Management System (NIWMS) to calculate average low-flow, average minimum streamflow, and low-flow index duration and frequency. This information is used in the correlation analysis with 18 basin factors and 3 climate change factors to identify the basin area, average basin altitude, average basin slope, water system density, runoff curve number, annual evapotranspiration, and annual precipitation in the low-flow index regression model. This study evaluates the model's accuracy by using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) for 10 ungauged, verified basins and compares them with the previous model's low-flow calculations to determine the effectiveness of the newly developed model. Comparative analysis indicates that the new regression model produces average low-flow, attributed to the consideration of varied basin and hydrologic factors during the new model's development.

Life Cycle Assessment of Carbon Monoxide Production via Electrochemical CO2 Reduction: Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential (전기화학적 이산화탄소 환원을 통한 일산화탄소 생산 공정의 전과정평가 : 온실가스 저감 잠재량 분석)

  • Roh, Kosan
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2022
  • Electrochemical carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction technology, one of the promising solutions for climate change, can convert CO2, a representative greenhouse gas (GHG), into valuable base chemicals using electric energy. In particular, carbon monoxide (CO), among various candidate products, is attracting much attention from both academia and industry because of its high Faraday efficiency, promising economic feasibility, and relatively large market size. Although numerous previous studies have recently analyzed the GHG reduction potential of this technology, the assumptions made and inventory data used are neither consistent nor transparent. In this study, a comparative life cycle assessment was carried out to analyze the potential for reducing GHG emissions in the electrochemical CO production process in a more transparent way. By defining three different system boundaries, the global warming impact was compared with that of a fossil fuel-based CO production process. The results confirmed that the emission factor of electric energy supplied to CO2-electrolyzers should be much lower than that of the current national power generation sector in order to mitigate GHG emissions by replacing conventional CO production with electrochemical CO production. Also, it is important to disclose transparently inventory data of the conventional CO production process for a more reliable analysis of GHG reduction potential.

Development and Validation of Digital Twin for Analysis of Plant Factory Airflow (식물공장 기류해석을 위한 디지털트윈 개발 및 실증)

  • Jeong, Jin-Lip;Won, Bo-Young;Yoo, Ho-Dong;Kim, Tag Gon;Kang, Dae-Hyun;Hong, Kyung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2022
  • As one of the alternatives to solve the problem of unstable food supply and demand imbalance caused by abnormal climate change, the need for plant factories is increasing. Airflow in plant factory is recognized as one of important factor of plant which influence transpiration and heat transfer. On the other hand, Digital Twin (DT) is getting attention as a means of providing various services that are impossible only with the real system by replicating the real system in the virtual world. This study aimed to develop a digital twin model for airflow prediction that can predict airflow in various situations by applying the concept of digital twin to a plant factory in operation. To this end, first, the mathematical formalism of the digital twin model for airflow analysis in plant factories is presented, and based on this, the information necessary for airflow prediction modeling of a plant factory in operation is specified. Then, the shape of the plant factory is implemented in CAD and the DT model is developed by combining the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) components for airflow behavior analysis. Finally, the DT model for high-accuracy airflow prediction is completed through the validation of the model and the machine learning-based calibration process by comparing the simulation analysis result of the DT model with the actual airflow value collected from the plant factory.

A Study on the Performance Degradation Pattern of Caisson-type Quay Wall Port Facilities (케이슨식 안벽 항만시설의 성능저하패턴 연구)

  • Na, Yong Hyoun;Park, Mi Yeon;Jang, Shinwoo
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.146-153
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: In the case of domestic port facilities, port structures that have been in use for a long time have many problems in terms of safety performance and functionality due to the enlargement of ships, increased frequency of use, and the effects of natural disasters due to climate change. A big data analysis method was studied to develop an approximate model that can predict the aging pattern of a port facility based on the maintenance history data of the port facility. Method: In this study, member-level maintenance history data for caisson-type quay walls were collected, defined as big data, and based on the data, a predictive approximation model was derived to estimate the aging pattern and deterioration of the facility at the project level. A state-based aging pattern prediction model generated through Gaussian process (GP) and linear interpolation (SLPT) techniques was proposed, and models suitable for big data utilization were compared and proposed through validation. Result: As a result of examining the suitability of the proposed method, the SLPT method has RMSE of 0.9215 and 0.0648, and the predictive model applied with the SLPT method is considered suitable. Conclusion: Through this study, it is expected that the study of predicting performance degradation of big data-based facilities will become an important system in decision-making regarding maintenance.

A Study on Determination of Suspension Spring Coefficient of Electric UTV for Agricultural Use through Virtual Simulation (가상 시뮬레이션을 통한 농업용 전동 UTV의 서스펜션 스프링 계수 결정 연구)

  • Kim, Sang Cheol;Kim, Seong Hoon;Kim, Seung Wan
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2022
  • In order to respond to carbon neutrality and climate change in agriculture, agricultural machinery, which has been developed centered on internal combustion engines, needs to be converted to an electric-based technology that does not emit greenhouse gases. In this study, simulations for electric UTV suspension design were performed to reduce vibration and shock of electric UTV for agricultural use and to improve driving stability and control performance of the vehicle. The simulation was performed by dividing the tolerance load of the vehicle body and the loaded load state. The range of motion of the suspension spring of UTV is within 30% of the range of motion under condition B under tolerance, the displacement of the UTV suspension with full load is reduced from 264mm to 121mm, and the damping speed is 260mm/s to 300mm/s that it can be seen that the range of motion is within 60%. Suspension design of electric UTV for multi-purpose agricultural work is a very important factor for maintaining agricultural work ability in towing work such as tillage as well as driving and terrain adaptation. The results of this study can be usefully used to determine the spring parameters with the appropriate damping range so that the electric UTV can be used for various agricultural tasks.

Estimation of the Hydrological Design Frequency of Local Rivers Using Bayesian Inference and a Sensitivity Analysis of Evaluation Factors (평가인자 가중치에 대한 베이지안 추론과 민감도 분석을 통한 적정 하천설계빈도 결정)

  • Ryu, Jae Hee;Kim, Ji Eun;Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Kyung-Woon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.617-626
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    • 2022
  • In Korea, annual precipitation and its variability have gradually increased since modern meteorological observations began, and the risk of disasters has also been increasing due to significant regional variations and recent abnormal climate conditions. Given that damage from storms and floods mainly occurs around rivers, it is crucial to determine the appropriate design frequency for river-related projects. This study examined existing design practices used to determine hydrological design frequencies and suggested a new method to determine appropriate design frequencies. The study collected available data pertaining to seven evaluation factors, specifically the basin areas, shape parameters, channel slopes, stream orders, backwater effect reaches, extreme rainfall frequencies, and urbanized flood inundation areasfor 413 local rivers in Chungcheongnam-do in Korea. The estimated weights for areas of extreme rainfall frequencies and urbanized flood inundation were found to be 18, having a great effect on determining the design frequency. Compared with the established design frequency in previous government reports, the estimated design frequency increased for 255 rivers and decreased for 158 rivers.

Evaluation of Flood Regulation Service of Urban Ecosystem Using InVEST mode (InVEST 모형을 이용한 도시 생태계의 홍수 조절서비스 평가)

  • Lee, Tae-ho;Cheon, Gum-sung;Kwon, Hyuk-soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2022
  • Along with the urbanization, the risk of urban flooding due to climate change is increasing. Flood regulation, one of the ecosystem services, is implemented in the different level of function of flood risk mitigation by the type of ecosystem such as forests, arable land, wetlands etc. Land use changes due to development pressures have become an important factor in increasing the vulnerability by flash flood. This study has conducted evaluating the urban flood regulation service using InVEST UFRM(Urban Flood Risk Model). As a result of the simulation, the potential water retention by ecosystem type in the event of a flash flood according to RCP 4.5(10 year frequency) scenario was 1,569,611 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 907,706 tons in agricultural areas, 1,496,105 tons in forested areas, 831,705 tons in grasslands, 1,021,742 tons in wetlands, and 206,709 tons in bare areas, the water bodies was estimated to be 38,087 tons. In the case of more severe 100-year rainfall, 1,808,376 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 1,172,505 tons in agricultural areas, 2,076,019 tons in forests, 1,021,742 tons in grasslands, 47,603 tons in wetlands, 238,363 tons in bare lands, and 52,985 tons in water bodies. The potential economic damage from flood runoff(100 years frequency) is 122,512,524 thousand won in residential areas, 512,382,410 thousand won in commercial areas, 50,414,646 thousand won in industrial areas, 2,927,508 thousand won in Infrastructure(road), 8,907 thousand won in agriculture, Total of assuming a runoff of 50 mm(100 year frequency) was estimated at 688,245,997 thousand won. In a conclusion. these results provided an overview of ecosystem functions and services in terms of flood control, and indirectly demonstrated the possibility of using the model as a tool for policy decision-making. Nevertheless, in future research, related issues such as application of models according to various spatial scales, verification of difference in result values due to differences in spatial resolution, improvement of CN(Curved Number) suitable for the research site conditions based on actual data, and development of flood damage factors suitable for domestic condition for the calculation of economic loss.

Comparison of Safety Culture Awareness between Client and Subcontractors' Employees according to the Experience of Accidents and Near Misses (사고와 아차사고 경험에 따른 원청과 협력업체 근로자 간 안전문화 인식 비교)

  • Kim, Dong Yeol;Park, Jae Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.28-34
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzes the impact that accidents and near misses have on clients' and contractors' awareness of safety culture. Due to the unique characteristic of employment structure in Korea, the occurrence of accidents differs by company size, which has relevant implications for the establishment of safety culture. Attention has been drawn to the importance of the management of accidents and near misses, with safety awareness acting as a core factor. A positive effect on the prevention of accidents could be achieved by noting the difference in safety awareness between clients and contractors and suggesting an associated suitable safety management system. In support of this study, a survey was distributed to workers in the automobile manufacturing industry (May-August 2020), and data from a total of 574 workers was collected and analyzed, including 399 clients' worksers and 175 contractors' workers. The questionnaire addressed participants' experiences of accidents and near misses as well as 50 items from the Nordic Occupational Safety Climate Questionnaire. Analysis of the responses was conducted using the methods of frequency analysis, Fisher's exact test, t-test, correlation analysis, and regression analysis. The results demonstrated that clients had more experiences with accidents and near misses compared to contractors. Additional differences between clients and contractors were noted in terms of the safety culture factors of learning, communication, and trust. A correlation was observed between the experience of accidents and safety justice management: for clients and contractors who experienced accidents, safety justice management was 9.4 times higher. Furthermore, clients' and contractors' awareness of employees' commitment to safety was determined to be 28.5 times higher in those who had experienced near misses This study concludes that, in order to improve accident prevention through the management of accidents and near misses, clients must focus on overseeing safety justice management and aspects of safety culture factors, while contractors must focus efforts on managing employees' commitment to safety. In further applications, this study could provide baseline data for health and safety activities in terms of the safety culture of clients and contractors. Further study on the establishment of safety culture as related to employment structure is proposed for future research.

A Theoretical Study on the Landscape Development by Different Erosion Resistance Using a 2d Numerical Landscape Evolution Model (침식저항도 차이에 따른 지형발달 및 지형인자에 대한 연구 - 2차원 수치지형발달모형을 이용하여 -)

  • Kim, Dong-Eun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.541-550
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    • 2022
  • A pre-existing landform is created by weathering and erosion along the bedrock fault and the weak zone. A neotectonic landform is formed by neotectonic movements such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and Quaternary faults. It is difficult to clearly distinguish the landform in the actual field because the influence of the tectonic activity in the Korean Peninsula is relatively small, and the magnitude of surface processes (e.g., erosion and weathering) is intense. Thus, to better understand the impact of tectonic activity and distinguish between pre-existing landforms and neotectonic landforms, it is necessary to understand the development process of pre-existing landforms depending on the bedrock characteristics. This study used a two-dimensional numerical landscape evolution model (LEM) to study the spatio-temporal development of landscape according to the different erodibility under the same factors of climate and the uplift rate. We used hill-slope indices (i.e., relief, mean elevation, and slope) and channels (i.e., longitudinal profile, normalized channel steepness index, and stream order) to distinguish the difference according to different bedrocks. As a result of the analysis, the terrain with high erosion potential shows low mean elevation, gentle slope, low stream order, and channel steepness index. However, the value of the landscape with low erosion potential differs from that with high erodibility. In addition, a knickpoint came out at the boundary of the bedrock. When researching the actual topography, the location around the border of difference in bedrock has only been considered a pre-existing factor. This study suggested that differences in bedrock and various topographic indices should be comprehensively considered to classify pre-existing and active tectonic topography.