• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate change impact assessment

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Analysis of PM2.5 Concentration and Contribution Characteristics in South Korea according to Seasonal Weather Patternsin East Asia: Focusing on the Intensive Measurement Periodsin 2015 (동아시아 지역의 계절별 기상패턴에 따른 우리나라 PM2.5 농도 및 기여도 특성 분석: 2015년 집중측정 기간을 중심으로)

  • Nam, Ki-Pyo;Lee, Dae-Gyun;Jang, Lim-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.183-200
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the characteristics of seasonal $PM_{2.5}$ behavior in South Korea and other Northeast Asian regions were analyzed by using the $PM_{2.5}$ ground measurement data, weather data, WRF and CMAQ models. Analysis of seasonal $PM_{2.5}$ behavior in Northeast Asia showed that $PM_{2.5}$ concentration at 6 IMS sites in South Korea was increased by long-distance transport and atmospheric congestion, or decreased by clean air inflow due to seasonal weather characteristics. As a result of analysis by applying BFM to air quality model, the contribution from foreign countries dominantly influenced the $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations of Baengnyeongdo due to the low self-emission and geographical location. In the case of urban areas with high self-emissions such as Seoul and Ulsan, the $PM_{2.5}$ contribution from overseas was relatively low compared to other regions, but the standard deviation of the season was relatively high. This study is expected to improve the understanding of the air pollutant phenomenon by analyzing the characteristics of $PM_{2.5}$ behavior in Northeast Asia according to the seasonal weather condition change. At the same time, this study can be used to establish the air quality policy in the future, knowing that the contribution of $PM_{2.5}$ concentration to the domestic and overseas can be different depending on the regional emission characteristics.

Coastal Complex Disaster Risk Assessment in Busan Marine City (부산 마린시티 해안의 복합재난 위험성 평가)

  • Hwang, Soon-Mi;Oh, Hyoung-Min;Nam, Soo-yong;Kang, Tae-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.506-513
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    • 2020
  • Due to climate change, there is an increasing risk of complex (hybrid) disasters, comprising rising sea-levels, typhoons, and torrential rains. This study focuses on Marine City, Busan, a new residential city built on a former landfill site in Suyeong Bay, which recently suffered massive flood damage following a combination of typhoons, storm surges, and wave overtopping and run-up. Preparations for similar complex disasters in future will depend on risk impact assessment and prioritization to establish appropriate countermeasures. A framework was first developed for this study, followed by the collection of data on flood prediction and socioeconomic risk factors. Five socioeconomic risk factors were identified: (1) population density, (2) basement accommodation, (3) building density and design, (4) design of sidewalks, and (5) design of roads. For each factor, absolute criteria were determined with which to assess their level of risk, while expert surveys were consulted to weight each factor. The results were classified into four levels and the risk level was calculated according to the sea-level rise predictions for the year 2100 and a 100-year return period for storm surge and rainfall: Attention 43 %, Caution 24 %, Alert 21 %, and Danger 11 %. Finally, each level, indicated by a different color, was depicted on a complex disaster risk map.

Life Cycle Assessment of Carbon Monoxide Production via Electrochemical CO2 Reduction: Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential (전기화학적 이산화탄소 환원을 통한 일산화탄소 생산 공정의 전과정평가 : 온실가스 저감 잠재량 분석)

  • Roh, Kosan
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2022
  • Electrochemical carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction technology, one of the promising solutions for climate change, can convert CO2, a representative greenhouse gas (GHG), into valuable base chemicals using electric energy. In particular, carbon monoxide (CO), among various candidate products, is attracting much attention from both academia and industry because of its high Faraday efficiency, promising economic feasibility, and relatively large market size. Although numerous previous studies have recently analyzed the GHG reduction potential of this technology, the assumptions made and inventory data used are neither consistent nor transparent. In this study, a comparative life cycle assessment was carried out to analyze the potential for reducing GHG emissions in the electrochemical CO production process in a more transparent way. By defining three different system boundaries, the global warming impact was compared with that of a fossil fuel-based CO production process. The results confirmed that the emission factor of electric energy supplied to CO2-electrolyzers should be much lower than that of the current national power generation sector in order to mitigate GHG emissions by replacing conventional CO production with electrochemical CO production. Also, it is important to disclose transparently inventory data of the conventional CO production process for a more reliable analysis of GHG reduction potential.

Analysis of Water Cycle Effect according to Application of LID Techniques (LID 기법 적용에 따른 물순환 효과분석)

  • Lee, Jungmin;Lee, Yun;Choi, Jongsoo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.411-421
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    • 2014
  • At present, the development in rainwater management approach is still insufficient due to the numerous adverse effects of urbanization. Storm water management is being developed to restore the natural state of water cycle undergoing several processes which were hindered such as infiltration and evapotranspiration. Low Impact Development (LID) was established in order to reduce the negative effects of urbanization to our environment. These developments can be used to respond to the effects of climate change such as heat island phenomenon. The effects of the development of new town in the district plan with application of LID facilities were studied and reported. Typically, LID facilities were applied in small scale development and were rarely used in large-scale development. Most of studies, however, did not assessment the effects of large-scale development projects with LID application to the natural water cycle. This study was conducted to simulate the urban hydrologic cycle simulation on Asan-Tangjeong in Korea. This study may be used in urban hydrologic cycle simulation and establishment of an urban water management plan in the future. Lastly, this study generated a model using the recently updated SWMM5 which determined the hydrologic cycle simulation after installation of LID facilities.

Assessment of Water Circulation and Hydro-characteristics with LID techniques in urbanized areas (도시지역에 적용된 LID 기법의 강우시 수문특성 및 물순환 평가)

  • Choi, Hyeseon;Hong, Jungsun;Jeon, Minsu;Geronimo, Franz Kevin;Kim, Leehyung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.191-198
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    • 2019
  • High impervious surfaces increase the surface runoff during rainfall and reduces the underground infiltration thereby leading to water cycle distortion. The distortion of water cycle causes various urban environmental problems such as urban flooding, drought, water pollutant due to non-point pollution runoff, and water ecosystem damage. Climate change intensified seasonal biases in urban rainfall and affected urban microclimate, thereby increasing the intensity and frequency of urban floods and droughts. Low impact development(LID) technology has been applied to various purposes as a technique to reduce urban environmental problems caused by water by restoring the natural water cycle in the city. This study evaluated the contribution of hydrologic characteristics and water cycle recovery after LID application using long-term monitoring results of various LID technology applied in urban areas. Based on the results, the high retention and infiltration rate of the LID facility was found to contribute significantly to peak flow reduction and runoff delay during rainfall. The average runoff reduction effect was more than 60% at the LID facility. The surface area of the LID facility area ratio(SA/CA) was evaluated as an important factor affecting peak flow reduction and runoff delay effect.

Determination of the Temperature Increasing Value of Seedling Nursery Period for Oryza2000 Model to Applicate Grid Weather Data (Oryza2000 모형 활용을 위한 육묘기 보온 상승온도 결정)

  • Kim, Junhwan;Sang, Wangyu;Shin, Pyeong;Baek, Jaekyeong;Kwon, Dongwon;Lee, Yunho;Cho, Jung-Il;Seo, Myungchul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.20-25
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    • 2020
  • Spatial simulation of crop growth often requires application of management conditions to each cell. In particular, it is of great importance to determine the temperature conditions during the nursery period for rice seedlings, which would affect heading date projections. The objective of this study was to determine the value of TMPSB, which is the parameter of ORYZA2000 model to represent temperature increase under a plastic tunnel during the rice seedling periods. Candidate values of TMPSB including 0℃, 2℃, 5℃, 7℃ and 9℃ were used to simulate rice growth and yield. Planting dates were set from mid-April to mid-June. The simulations were performed at four sites including Cheorwon, Suwon, Seosan, and Gwangju where climate conditions at rice fields common in Korea can be represented. It was found that the TMPSB values of 0℃ and 2℃ resulted in a large variation of heading date due to low temperature occurred in mid-April. When the TMPSB value was >7℃, the variation of heading date was relatively small. Still, the TMPSB value of 5℃ resulted in the least variation of heading date for all the planting dates. Our results suggested that the TMPSB value of 5℃ would help reasonable assessment of climate change impact on rice production when high resolution gridded weather data are used as inputs to ORYZA2000 model over South Korea.

Outlook on Variation of Water Resources in Korea under SRES A2 Scenario (A2 시나리오에 따른 국내 수자원의 변동성 전망)

  • Bae, Deg-Hyo;Jung, Il-Won;Lee, Byong-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.921-930
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to present temporal-spatial variation of water resources on climate change impacts using the IPCC SRES A2 scenario and dynamical downscaling of the results (using the MM5 model with a resolution of 27km by 27km) at 139 sub-basins in Korea. The variation of runoff shows differences in the change of rate according to the each sub-basins and analysis durations. It has increased in the sub-basins located in Han river basin and east part of it, the other basins have decreased. In seasonal analysis, runoff in autumn and winter have increased, while in spring and summer have decreased. The results of frequency analyzing classified runoff(Low flow(Q$\leq$5mm), Normal flow(5$\geq$100mm)) show that low flow increase in most of the sub-basins for 2031-2060 and 2061-2090. In the case of high flow, it have higher frequency ranging from -100% to 500% than low flow. Regardless of the variation of mean runoff, maximum discharge appeared to be increase in process of time. The regression method is used to figure out the relationship between the rate of runoff change and mean temperature, mean precipitation under A2 scenario. The mean actual evapotranspirations from the regression equations increased by 3.4$\sim$5.3% for the change of $1^{\circ}C$. Also, for the precipitation change of $\pm$10%, runoff variety range is -18.2$\sim$+12.4% in Han River, -21.6$\sim$+14.6% in Nakdong River, -17.5$\sim$+11.5% in Gum River, -18.4$\sim$+10.6% in Sumjin River, -19.9$\sim$+12.7% Youngsan River basin.

Assessment of ECMWF's seasonal weather forecasting skill and Its applicability across South Korean catchments (ECMWF 계절 기상 전망 기술의 정확성 및 국내 유역단위 적용성 평가)

  • Lee, Yong Shin;Kang, Shin Uk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.9
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    • pp.529-541
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    • 2023
  • Due to the growing concern over forecasting extreme weather events such as droughts caused by climate change, there has been a rising interest in seasonal meteorological forecasts that offer ensemble predictions for the upcoming seven months. Nonetheless, limited research has been conducted in South Korea, particularly in assessing their effectiveness at the catchment-scale. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of ECMWF's seasonal forecasts (including precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration) for the period of 2011 to 2020. We focused on 12 multi-purpose reservoir catchments and compared the forecasts to climatology data. Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score method is adopted to assess the forecast skill, and the linear scaling method was applied to evaluate its impact. The results showed that while the seasonal meteorological forecasts have similar skill to climatology for one month ahead, the skill decreased significantly as the forecast lead time increased. Compared to the climatology, better results were obtained in the Wet season than the Dry season. In particular, during the Wet seasons of the dry years (2015, 2017), the seasonal meteorological forecasts showed the highest skill for all lead times.

Adaption of Phenological Eventsin Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbsto Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 수도권 생물계절 반응 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Hyomin Park;Minkyung Kim;Sangdon Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2023
  • The rapid advance of technology has accelerated global warming. As 50.4 percent of South Korea's population is concentrated in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, which has become a considerable emitter of greenhouse gases, the city's average temperature is expected to increase more rapidly than in other areas in the country. A rise in the average temperature would affect everyday life and urban ecology; thus, appropriate measures to cope with the forthcoming disaster are in need. This study analyzed the changes in plant phenological phases from the past to the present based on temperatures (average temperature of Feb, Mar, April) observed in seven different weather stations nearthe Seoul Metropolitan Area (Ganghwa, Seoul, Suwon, Yangpyeong, Icheon, Incheon, and Paju) and the first flowering dates of Plum tree (Prunus mume), Korean forsythia (Forsythia koreana), Korean rosebay (Rhododendron mucronulatum), Cherry tree (Prunus serrulate), Peach tree (Prunus persica), and Pear tree (Pyrus serotina). Then, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios were used to predict the future temperature in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and how it will affect plant phenological phases. Furthermore, the study examined the differences in the flowering dates depending on various strategies to mitigate greenhouse gases. The result showed that the rate of plant phenological change had been accelerated since the 1900s.If emission levels remain unchanged, plants will flower from 18 to 29 earlier than they do now in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, which would be faster than in other areas in the country. This is because the FFD (First Flowering Date), is highly related to temperature changes. The Seoul Metropolitan Area, which has been urbanized more rapidly than any other areas, is predicted to become a temperature warming, forcing the FFDs of the area to occur faster than in the rest of the country. Changes in phenology can lead to ecosystem disruption by causing mismatches in species interacting with each otherin an ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary to establish strategies against temperature warming and FFD change due to urbanization.

Assessment of Greenhouse gases Emission of Agronomic Sector between 1996 and 2006 IPCC Guidelines (1996년과 2006년 IPCC 가이드라인별 경종부문 온실가스 배출량 평가)

  • Jeong, Hyun-Cheol;Kim, Gun-Yeob;Lee, Deog-Bae;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Kang, Kee-Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.1214-1219
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to compare of greenhouse gas emissions between 1996 and 2006 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) guidelines change. Greenhouse gas emissions were calculated separately by rice cultivation, agricultural soils and field burning of agricultural residues from 2000 to 2008 according to 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines. To calculate greenhouse gas emissions, emission factor and activity data were used IPCC default value and the food, agricultural, forestry and fisheries statistical yearbook of MIFAFF (Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries). The greenhouse emissions by 1996 IPCC guidelines were highest in rice cultivation as 4,008 $CO_2$-eq Gg of 2000 and 3,558 $CO_2$-eq Gg of 2008. The emissions by N-fixing crops, crop residues returned soils and field burning did not much affect the total emissions. $CO_2$ emissions by urea and lime were calculated by adding in 2006 IPCC guidelines and its emissions were 157 and 82 $CO_2$-eq Gg in 2008 respectively. The emissions by N-fixing crops, crop residues returned to soils and field burning, in common with 1996 IPCC guidelines, did not have a significant impact on total emissions. The total emissions in agronomic sector was decreased continuously from 2000 to 2008 and annual emissions by 2006 IPCC guidelines were approximately 26-29% less than the 1996 IPCC guidelines.