• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate change assessment

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Uncertainty Assessment of Single Event Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Bayesian Model (Bayesian 모형을 이용한 단일사상 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Lee, Jong-Seok;Na, Bong-Kil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.505-516
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    • 2012
  • The study applies a hydrologic simulation model, HEC-1 developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center to Daecheong dam watershed for modeling hourly inflows of Daecheong dam. Although the HEC-1 model provides an automatic optimization technique for some of the parameters, the built-in optimization model is not sufficient in estimating reliable parameters. In particular, the optimization model often fails to estimate the parameters when a large number of parameters exist. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to develop Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based HEC-1 model (BHEC-1). The Clark IUH method for transformation of precipitation excess to runoff and the soil conservation service runoff curve method for abstractions were used in Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. Simulations of runoff at the Daecheong station in the HEC-1 model under Bayesian optimization scheme allow the posterior probability distributions of the hydrograph thus providing uncertainties in rainfall-runoff process. The proposed model showed a powerful performance in terms of estimating model parameters and deriving full uncertainties so that the model can be applied to various hydrologic problems such as frequency curve derivation, dam risk analysis and climate change study.

Biotechnology for the Mitigation of Methane Emission from Landfills (매립지의 메탄 배출 저감을 위한 생물공학기술)

  • Cho, Kyung-Suk;Ryu, Hee-Wook
    • Microbiology and Biotechnology Letters
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.293-305
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    • 2009
  • Methane, as a greenhouse gas, is some 21~25 times more detrimental to the environmental than carbon dioxide. Landfills generally constitute the most important anthropogenic source, and methane emission from landfill was estimated as 35~73 Tg per year. Biological approaches using biocover (open system) and biofilter (closed system) can be a promising solution for older and/or smaller landfills where the methane production is too low for energy recovery or flaring and installation of a gas extraction system is inefficient. Methanotrophic bacteria, utilizing methane as a sole carbon and energy source, are responsible for the aerobic degradation (oxidation) of methane in the biological systems. Many bench-scale studies have demonstrated a high oxidation capacity in diverse filter bed materials such as soil, compost, earthworm cast and etc. Compost had been most often employed in the biological systems, and the methane oxidation rates in compost biocovers/boifilters ranged from 50 to $700\;g-CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$. Some preliminary field trials have showed the suitability of biocovers/biofilters for practical application and their satisfactory performance in mitigation methane emissions. Since the reduction of landfill methane emissions has been linked to carbon credits and trading schemes, the verified quantification of mitigated emissions through biocovers/biofilters is very important. Therefore, the assessment of in situ biocovers/biofilters performance should be standardized, and the reliable quantification methods of methane reduction is necessary.

A study of Assessment for Internal Inundation Vulnerability in Urban Area using SWMM (SWMM을 이용한 도시지역 내수침수 취약성 평가)

  • Shon, Tae-Seok;Kang, Dong-Ho;Jang, Jong-Kyung;Shin, Hyun-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.105-117
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    • 2010
  • The topographical depressions in urban areas, the lack in drainage capability, sewage backward flow, road drainage, etc. cause internal inundation, and the increase in rainfall resulting from recent climate change, the rapid urbanization accompanied by economic development and population growth, and the increase in an impervious area in urban areas deteriorate the risk of internal inundation in the urban areas. In this study, the vulnerability of internal inundation in urban areas is analyzed and SWMM model is applied into Oncheoncheon watershed, which represents urban river of Busan, as a target basin. Based on the results, the representative storm sewers in individual sub-catchments is selected and the risk of vulnerability to internal inundation due to rainfall in urban streams is analyzed. In order to analyze the risk and vulnerability of internal inundation, capacity is applied as an index indicating the volume of a storm sewer in the SWMM model, and the risk of internal inundation is into 4 steps. For the analysis on the risk of internal inundation, simulation results by using a SMMM model are compared with the actual inundation areas resulting from localized heavy rain on July 7, 2009 at Busan and comparison results are analyzed to prove the validity of the designed model. Accordingly, probabilistic rainfall at Busan was input to the model for each frequency (10, 20, 50, 100 years) and duration (6, 12, 18, 24hr) at Busan. In this study, it suggests that the findings can be used to preliminarily alarm the possibility of internal inundation and selecting the vulnerable zones in urban areas.

Ultimate Strength Assessment of Ship Stiffened Panel under Arctic Conditions (극지환경을 고려한 선체보강판 구조의 최종강도 평가)

  • Kim, YangSeop;Park, DaeKyeom;Kim, SangJin;Lee, DongHun;Kim, BongJu;Ha, YeonChul;Seo, JungKan;Paik, JeomKee
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.283-290
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    • 2014
  • Environmental changes, especially global climate change, are creating new routes to reduce a shipping service distance in Arctic area. The Arctic routes are shorter than 60% of existing ways Panama or Suez canal). For this reason, ship owners prefer to navigate in Arctic area and a transportation of goods though the Arctic area is increasing. But the low temperature in Arctic condition changes the material properties. Especially, the material will be brittle and strength will increase. And an ultimate strength analysis of ship stiffened panels is changed depending on temperatures. In present study, the ultimate strength analysis of stiffened panels in double hull oil tankers is performed under various low temperatures with the material properties obtained by tensile coupon test. The analytical method as named ALPS/ULSAP was used for analysis method and 6 kinds of temperature (20, 0, -20, -40, -60 and $-80^{\circ}C$) were considered to investigate the effect of Arctic conditions.

Cold Tolerance Assessment of Lagerstroemia indica and Pyracantha angustifolia with Dormant Branches (배롱나무와 피라칸사 겨울 휴면지의 내한성 평가)

  • Shin, Chang-Seob
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.118-125
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to check danger of the cold injury by reviewing the lowest temperature by regions and the cold tolerance of Lagerstroemia indica and Pyracantha angustifolia. The cold tolerance of the samples treated at low temperature was evaluated by measuring electrical conductivity and observing browning of the cambium. It was proved that the lethal temperature of L. indica is below $-17.1^{\circ}C$, and that of P. angustifolia is below $-18.9^{\circ}C$. The frequency of the lowest temperature went down below $-17.1^{\circ}C$, was 7 times in Daejeon, 55 times in Cheongju and 72 times in Suwon for the last 45 years. In Daejeon, it has happened only once since 1975. The temperature dropped below $-18.9^{\circ}C$ 45 times in Cheongju and 32 times in Suwon during the same period, but it has not happened at all since 1991. It appears that the rising coefficient of the lowest temperature increases, as the latitude gets higher. As a result, L. indica and P. angustifolia which were planted in the central region of Korea, are considered in danger from freezing injury because the temperature can get very low intermittently in winter. But, the risk of freezing has reduced gradually as the lowest temperature raises each year.

Assessment of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation in Cheoncheon Basin Considering Hourly Rainfall (시강우를 고려한 천천유역의 토양침식 및 퇴적 평가)

  • Kim, Seongwon;Lee, Daeeop;Jung, Sungho;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2020
  • In recent years, the frequency of heavy rainfall associated with high rainfall intensity has been continuously increasing due to the effects of climate change; and thus also causes an increase in watershed soil erosion. The existing estimation techniques, used for the prediction of soil erosion in Korea have limitations in predicting the: average soil erosion in watersheds, and the soil erosion associated with abnormal short-term rainfall events. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the characteristics of torrential rainfall, and utilize physics-based model to accurately determine the soil erosion characteristics of a watershed. In this study, the rainfall kinetic energy equation, in the form of power function, is proposed by applying the probability density function, to analyze the rainfall particle distribution. The distributed rainfall-erosion model, which utilizes the proposed rainfall kinetic energy equation, was utilized in this study to determine the soil erosion associated with various typhoon events that occurred at Cheoncheon watershed. As a result, the model efficiency parameters of the model for NSE and RMSE are 0.036 and 4.995 ppm, respectively. Therefore, the suggested soil erosion model, coupled with the proposed rainfall-energy estimation, shows accurate results in predicting soil erosion in a watershed due to short-term rainfall events.

Assessment of the Contribution of Poultry and Pig Production to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Korea Over the Last 10 Years (2005 through 2014)

  • Boontiam, Waewaree;Shin, Yongjin;Choi, Hong Lim;Kumari, Priyanka
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.29 no.12
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    • pp.1805-1811
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    • 2016
  • The goal of this study was to estimate the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), namely methane ($CH_4$), nitrous oxide ($N_2O$), and carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) from poultry and pig production in South Korea over the last 10 years (2005 through 2014). The calculations of GHG emissions were based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. Over the study period, the $CH_4$ emission from manure management decreased in layer chickens, nursery to finishing pigs and gestating to lactating sows, but there was a gradual increase in $CH_4$ emission from broiler chickens and male breeding pigs. Both sows and nursery to finishing pigs were associated with greater emissions from enteric fermentation than the boars, especially in 2009. Layer chickens produced lower direct and indirect $N_2O$ emissions from 2009 to 2014, whereas the average direct and indirect $N_2O$ emissions from manure management for broiler chickens were 12.48 and $4.93Gg\;CO_2-eq/yr$, respectively. Annual direct and indirect $N_2O$ emissions for broiler chickens tended to decrease in 2014. Average $CO_2$ emission from direct on-farm energy uses for broiler and layer chickens were 46.62 and $136.56Gg\;CO_2-eq/yr$, respectively. For pig sectors, the $N_2O$ emission from direct and indirect sources gradually increased, but they decreased for breeding pigs. Carbon dioxide emission from direct on-farm energy uses reached a maximum of $53.93Gg\;CO_2-eq/yr$ in 2009, but this total gradually declined in 2010 and 2011. For boars, the greatest $CO_2$ emission occurred in 2012 and was $9.44Gg\;CO_2-eq/yr$. Indirect $N_2O$ emission was the largest component of GHG emissions in broilers. In layer chickens, the largest contributing factor to GHG emissions was $CO_2$ from direct on-farm energy uses. For pig production, the largest component of GHG emissions was $CH_4$ from manure management, followed by $CO_2$ emission from direct on-farm energy use and $CH_4$ enteric fermentation emission, which accounted for 8.47, 2.85, and $2.82Gg-CO_2/yr$, respectively. The greatest GHG emission intensity occurred in female breeding sows relative to boars. Overall, it is an important issue for the poultry and pig industry of South Korea to reduce GHG emissions with the effective approaches for the sustainability of agricultural practices.

Comparison of physics-based and data-driven models for streamflow simulation of the Mekong river (메콩강 유출모의를 위한 물리적 및 데이터 기반 모형의 비교·분석)

  • Lee, Giha;Jung, Sungho;Lee, Daeeop
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.503-514
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    • 2018
  • In recent, the hydrological regime of the Mekong river is changing drastically due to climate change and haphazard watershed development including dam construction. Information of hydrologic feature like streamflow of the Mekong river are required for water disaster prevention and sustainable water resources development in the river sharing countries. In this study, runoff simulations at the Kratie station of the lower Mekong river are performed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a physics-based hydrologic model, and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), a data-driven deep learning algorithm. The SWAT model was set up based on globally-available database (topography: HydroSHED, landuse: GLCF-MODIS, soil: FAO-Soil map, rainfall: APHRODITE, etc) and then simulated daily discharge from 2003 to 2007. The LSTM was built using deep learning open-source library TensorFlow and the deep-layer neural networks of the LSTM were trained based merely on daily water level data of 10 upper stations of the Kratie during two periods: 2000~2002 and 2008~2014. Then, LSTM simulated daily discharge for 2003~2007 as in SWAT model. The simulation results show that Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of each model were calculated at 0.9(SWAT) and 0.99(LSTM), respectively. In order to simply simulate hydrological time series of ungauged large watersheds, data-driven model like the LSTM method is more applicable than the physics-based hydrological model having complexity due to various database pressure because it is able to memorize the preceding time series sequences and reflect them to prediction.

Establishment of Resilient Infrastructures for the Mitigation of an Urban Water Problem: 1. Robustness Assessment of Structural Alternatives for the Problem of Urban Floods (도시 물 문제 저감을 위한 회복탄력적 사회기반시설 구축: 1. 도시 홍수 문제 구조적 대안의 내구성 평가)

  • Lee, Changmin;Jung, Jihyeun;An, Jinsung;Kim, Jae Young;Choi, Yongju
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2016
  • Current cities encounter various types of water problems due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The increasing significance of urban water problems calls for the establishment of resilient alternatives to prevent and minimize social loss that results from these phenomena. As a background research for establishing resilient infrastructures for the mitigation of urban water problems, we evaluated the robustness of structural alternatives for urban flood as a representative case. Combining the robustness index (RI) and the cost index (CI), we suggested the robustness-cost index (RCI) as an indicator of the robustness of structural alternatives, and applied the index to assess the existing infrastructures and structural alternatives (i.e., sewer network expansion, additional storage tank construction, and green roof construction) at a site prone to floods located around Gangnam-station, Seoul, Korea. At a rainfall intensity frequency range of 2 to 20 years, the usage of a storage tank and a green roof showed relatively high RCI value, with a variation of an alternative showing greater RCI between the two depending on the size of design rainfall. For a rainfall intensity frequency of 30 years, installing a storage tank with some green roofing was the most resilient alternative based on the RCI value. We proposed strategies for establishing resilient infrastructures for the mitigation of urban floods by evaluating the robustness of existing infrastructures and selecting optimal structural alternatives with the consideration of scales of design disaster.

A Sub-grid Scale Estimation of Solar Irradiance in North Korea (북한지역 상세격자 디지털 일사량 분포도 제작)

  • Choi, Mi-Hee;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2011
  • Reliable information on the surface solar radiation is indispensable for rebuilding food production system in the famine plagued North Korea. However, transfer of the related modeling technology of South Korea is not possible simply because raw data such as solar radiation or sunshine duration are not available. The objective of this study is restoring solar radiation data at 27 synoptic stations in North Korea by using satellite remote sensing data. We derived relationships between MODIS radiation estimates and the observed solar radiation at 18 locations in South Korea. The relationships were used to adjust the MODIS based radiation data and to restore solar radiation data at those pixels corresponding to the 27 North Korean synoptic stations. Inverse distance weighted averaging of the restored solar radiation data resulted in gridded surfaces of monthly solar radiation for 4 decadal periods (1983-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2010), respectively. For a direct application of these products, we produced solar irradiance estimates for each sub-grid cell with a 30 m spacing based on a sun-slope geometry. These products are expected to assist planning of the North Korean agriculture and, if combined with the already prepared South Korean data, can be used for climate change impact assessment across the whole Peninsula.