• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.19-32
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• 2010

Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.4-23
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• 2018

Seo Byeong-o (徐丙五, 1862-1936) played a central role in the formation of the Daegu artistic community-which advocated artistic styles combining poetry, calligraphy and painting-during the Japanese colonial period, when the introduction of the Western concept of 'art' led to the adoption of Japanese and Western styles of painting in Korea. Seo first entered the world of calligraphy and painting after meeting Lee Ha-eung (李昰應, 1820-1898) in 1879, but his career as a scholar-artist only began in earnest after Korea was annexed by Japan in 1910. Seo's oeuvre can be broadly divided into three periods. In his initial period of learning, from 1879 to 1897, his artistic activity was largely confined to copying works from Chinese painting albums and painting works in the "Four Gentlemen" genre, influenced by the work of Lee Ha-eung, in his spare time. This may have been because Seo's principal aim at this time was to further his career as a government official. His subsequent period of development, which lasted from 1898 until 1920, saw him play a leading social role in such areas as the patriotic enlightenment movement until 1910, after which he reoriented his life to become a scholar-artist. During this period, Seo explored new styles based on the orchid paintings of Min Yeong-ik (閔泳翊, 1860-1914), whom he met during his second trip to Shanghai, and on the bamboo paintings of Chinese artist Pu Hua (蒲華, 1830-1911). At the same time, he painted in various genres including landscapes, flowers, and gimyeong jeolji (器皿折枝; still life with vessels and flowers). In his final mature period, from 1921 to 1936, Seo divided his time between Daegu and Seoul, becoming a highly active calligrapher and painter in Korea's modern art community. By this time his unique personal style, characterized by broad brush strokes and the use of abundant ink in orchid and bamboo paintings, was fully formed. Records on, and extant works from, Seo's early period are particularly rare, thus confining knowledge of his artistic activities and painting style largely to the realm of speculation. In this respect, eleven recently revealed nanjukseok (蘭竹石圖; orchid, bamboo and rock) paintings, produced by Seo in 1889, provide important clues about the origins and standards of his early-period painting style. This study uses a comparative analysis to confirm that Seo's orchid paintings show the influence of the early gunran (群蘭圖; orchid) and seongnan (石蘭圖; rock and orchid) paintings produced by Lee Ha-eung before his arrest by Qing troops in July 1882. Seo's bamboo paintings appear to show both that he adopted the style of Zheng Xie (鄭燮, 1693-1765) of the Yangzhou School (揚州畵派), a style widely known in Seoul from the late eighteenth century onward, and of Heo Ryeon (許鍊, 1809-1892), a student of Joseon artist Kim Jeong-hui (金正喜,1786-1856), and that he attempted to apply a modified version of Lee Ha-eung's seongnan painting technique. It was not possible to find other works by Seo evincing a direct relationship with the curious rocks depicted in his 1889 paintings, but I contend that they show the influence of both the late-nineteenth-century-Qing rock painter Zhou Tang (周棠, 1806-1876) and the curious rock paintings of the middle-class Joseon artist Jeong Hak-gyo (丁學敎, 1832-1914). In conclusion, this study asserts that, for his 1889 nanjukseok paintings, Seo Byeong-o adopted the styles of contemporary painters such as Heo Ryeon and Jeong Hak-gyo, whom he met during his early period at the Unhyeongung through his connection with its occupant, Lee Ha-eung, and those of artists such as Zheng Xie and Zhou Tang, whose works he was able to directly observe in Korea.

• MISULJARYO - National Museum of Korea Art Journal
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• v.97
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• pp.87-104
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• 2020

Myogilsang on Diamond Mountain, signed and dated (2000) by Seon-u Yeong (1946-2009), is the first work by a North Korean artist to enter the collection of the National Museum of Korea (fig. 1a). The donor acquired the painting directly from the artist in Pyeongyang in 2006. In consequence, there are no issues with the painting's authenticity.This painting is the largest among all existing Korean paintings, whether contemporary or from the Joseon Dynasty, to depict this iconography (see chart 1. A Chronological List of Korean Myogilsang Paintings.) It is ink and color on paper, measures 130.2 × 56.2 centimeters, and is in a hanging scroll format. Since this essay is intended as a brief introduction of the painting and not in-depth research into it, I will simply examine the following four areas: 1. Seon-u Yeong's background; 2. The location and the traditional appellation of the rock-cut image known as Myogilsang; 3. The iconography of the image; and 4) A comparative analysis of Seon-u Yeong's painting in light of other paintings on the same theme. Finally, I will present two more of his works to broaden the understanding of Seon-u Yeong as a painter. 1. Seon-u Yeong: According to the donor, who met Seon-u at his workshop in the Cheollima Jejakso (Flying Horse Workshop) three years before the artist's death, he was an individual of few words but displayed a firm commitment to art. His preference for subjects such as Korean landscapes rather than motifs of socialist realism such as revolutionary leaders is demonstrated by the fact that, relative to his North Korean contemporaries, he seems to have produced more paintings of the former. In recent years, Seon-u Yeong has been well publicized in Korea through three special exhibitions (2012 through 2019). He graduated from Pyeongyang College of Fine Arts in 1969 and joined the Central Fine Arts Production Workshop focusing on oil painting. In 1973 he entered the Joseon Painting Production Workshop and began creating traditional Korean paintings in ink and color. His paintings are characterized by intense colors and fine details. The fact that his mother was an accomplished embroidery specialist may have influenced on Seon-u's choice to use intense colors in his paintings. By 1992, he had become a painter representing the Democratic People's Republic of Korea with several titles such as Artist of Merit, People's Artist, and more. About 60 of his paintings have been designated as National Treasures of the DPRK. 2. The Myogilsang rock-cut image is located in the Manpok-dong Valley in the inner Geumgangsan Mountain area. It is a high-relief image about 15 meters tall cut into a niche under 40 meters of a rock cliff. It is the largest of all the rock-cut images of the Goryeo period. This image is often known as "Mahayeon Myogilsang," Mahayeon (Mahayana) being the name of a small temple deep in the Manpokdong Valley (See fig. 3a & 3b). On the right side of the image, there is an intaglio inscription of three Chinese characters by the famous scholar-official and calligrapher Yun Sa-guk (1728-1709) reading "妙吉祥"myogilsang (fig. 4a, 4b). 3. The iconography: "Myogilsang" is another name for the Bhodhisattva Mañjuśrī. The Chinese pronunciation of Myogilsang is "miaojixiang," which is similar in pronunciation to Mañjuśrī. Therefore, we can suggest a 妙吉祥 ↔ Mañjuśrī formula for the translation and transliteration of the term. Even though the image was given a traditional name, the mudra presented by the two hands in the image calls for a closer examination. They show the making of a circle by joining the thumb with the ring finger (fig. 6). If the left land pointed downward, this mudra would conventionally be considered "lower class: lower life," one of the nine mudras of the Amitabha. However, in this image the left hand is placed across its abdomen at an almost 90-degree angle to the right hand (fig. 6). This can be interpreted as a combination of the "fear not" and the "preaching" mudras (see note 10, D. Saunders). I was also advised by the noted Buddhist art specialist Professor Kim Jeong-heui (of Won'gwang University) to presume that this is the "preaching" mudra. Therefore, I have tentatively concluded that this Myogilsang is an image of the Shakyamuni offering the preaching mudra. There is no such combination of hand gestures in any other Goryeo-period images. The closest I could identify is the Beopjusa Rock-cut Buddha (fig. 7) from around the same time. 4. Comparative analysis: As seen in , except for the two contemporary paintings, all others on this chart are in ink or ink and light color. Also, none of them included the fact that the image is under a 40-meter cliff. In addition, the Joseon-period paintings all depicted the rock-cut image as if it were a human figure, using soft brushstrokes and rounded forms. None of these paintings accurately rendered the mudra from the image as did Seon-u. Only his painting depicts the natural setting of the image under the cliff along with a realistic rendering of the image. However, by painting the tall cliff in dark green and by eliminating elements on either side of the rock-cut image, the artist was able to create an almost surreal atmosphere surrounding the image. Herein lies the uniqueness of Seon-u Yeong's version. The left side of Seon-u's 2007 work Mount Geumgang (fig. 8) lives up to his reputation as a painter who depicts forms (rocks in this case) in minute detail, but in the right half of the composition it also shows his skill at presenting a sense of space. In contrast, Wave (fig. 9), a work completed one year before his death, displays his faithfulness to the traditions of ink painting. Even based on only three paintings by Seon-u Yeong, it seems possible to assess his versatility in both traditional ink and color mediums.