• Title/Summary/Keyword: case planning

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A study on an evaluation model for industrial information systems by industry sectors (업종별 특성을 고려한 기업정보화 성숙모형)

  • 진경수;임춘성;박찬권
    • Proceedings of the CALSEC Conference
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    • 2002.01a
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    • pp.86-106
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    • 2002
  • Informatization is a process that corporation's external environmental factors and internal environmental factors influence as complex. is a phenomenon that appears via this process. To evaluate that informatization was propeled well or informatization level is high can be dangerous work extremely by only once-over-lightly some factors, organization information ability is superior or infrastructure is constructed well. Therefore, an evaluation for industrial information systems that consider corporation's external environment and internal environment configurationally and objective estimation through this is required in national dimension. This research sorted types of business using types of business classification of 2001 EIII(Evaluation Indices of Industrial Informatization) laying stress on corporation's product and product production process for reflecting various industrial classification. And we are dividing whole our country corporations by manufacture industry, the construction industry, distribution industry, service industry, banking industry 5 types of business. To see such classed types industry classification from consistent viewpoint, we saw them within new framework, purchase, operation, physical distribution, marketing and sale. service etc. laying stress on primary businesses except support businesses of planning, financial management etc. To draw special quality of business center from primary business of each types of business, we draw industry classification Key Capability that centers when plans corporation's corporate strategy and information strategy. And we deducted industrial classification key production business connected with industry classification Key Capability. After drawing an evaluation items for industrial information systems in informatization analysis viewpoint laying stress on drawn businesses. Finally we did Case Study by making out an evaluation for industrial information systems questionnaire that considers special quality of manufacturing industry. Through EIII that consider the industrial classification, we could know that it explains the corporation's purchase, production, distribution in general and detail.

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A Study on Estimating Optimal Tonnage of Coastal Cargo Vessels in Korea (우리나라 연안화물선의 적정선복량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 이청환;이철영
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.21-53
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    • 1989
  • In the past twenty years, there has been a rapid increase in the volume of traffic in Korea due to the Korean great growth of the Korean economy. Since transformation provides an infrastructure vital to economic growth, it becomes more and more an integral part of the Korea economy. The importance of coastal shipping stands out in particular, not only because of the expansion limit on the road network, but also because of saturation in the capacity of rail transportation. In spite of this increase and its importance, coastal shipping is falling behind partly because it is givenless emphasis than ocean-going shipping and other inland transportation systems and partly because of overcompetition due to excessive ship tonnage. Therefore, estimating and planning optimum ship tonnage is the first take to develop Korean coastal shipping. This paper aims to estimate the optimum coastal ship tonnage by computer simulation and finally to draw up plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand. The estimation of the optimum ship tonnage is peformed by the method of Origin -Destimation and time series analysis. The result are as follows : (1) The optimum ship tonnage in 1987 was 358, 680 DWT, which is 54% of the current ship tonnage (481 ships, 662, 664DWT) that is equal to the optimum ship tonnage in 1998. this overcapacity result is in excessive competition and financial difficulties in Korea coastal shipping. (2) The excessive ship tonnage can be broken down into ship types as follows : oil carrier 250, 926 DWT(350%), cement carrier 9, 977 DWT(119%), iron material/machinery carrier 25, 665 DWT(117%), general cargo carrier 17, 416DWT(112%). (3) the current total ship crew of 5, 079 is more than the verified optimally efficient figure of 3, 808 by 1271. (4) From the viewpoint of management strategy, it is necessary that excessive ship tonnage be reduced and uneconomic outdated vessels be broken up. And its found that the diversion into economically efficient fleets is urgently required in order to meet increasing annual rate in the amounts of cargo(23, 877DWT). (5) The plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand are as follows 1) The establishment of a legislative system for the arrangement of ship tonnage. This would involve; (a) The announcement of an optimum tonnage which guides the licensing of cargo vessels and ship tonnage supply. (b) The establishment of an organization that substantially arrangement tonnage in Korea coastal shipping. 2) The announcement of an optimum ship tonnage both per year and short-term that guides current tonnage supply plans. 3) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protect6ion of coastal shipping's share from other tonnage supply plans. 4) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protection of coastal shipping's share from other transportation systems. 4) Restriction of ocean-going vessels from participating in coastal shipping routes. 5) Business rationalization of coastal shipping company which reduces uneconomic outdated vessels and boosts the national economy. If we are to achieve these ends, the followings are prerequisites; I) Because many non-licensed vessels are actually operating and threatening the safe voyage of the others in Korea coastal routes, it is necessary that those ind of vessels be controlled and punished by the authorities. II) The supply of ship tonnage in Korean coastal routes should be predently monitored because most of the coastal vessels are to small to be diverted into ocean-going routes in case of excessive supply. III) Every ship type which is engaged in coastal shipping should be specialized according to the characteristics of its routes as soon possible.

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The Characteristics of Population Flows in kwangju Metropolitan Area (光州 中心의 人口移動 特性에 관한 硏究)

  • Chouh, Hae-Chong
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.40-57
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    • 1993
  • This paper aims to show the various aspects of migration in Kwangju merropolitan area, southwestern Korea, for a period of years 1980-1985. Migratory patterns are spatially extensive in countryside around Kwanfju, and due to high accessibility to the metropolitan area urban implosion emerges in the city. In Chonnam province where Kwangju is loca-ted, all cities and counties except for such in-dustrial areas as Yochon, and Kwangyang are experiencing population losses in terms of net migration by survival rate methods. Kwangju is the exceptionally one of in-migration areas in Chonnam, though its central part(Dong-Gu) is also an out-migrated area. Predominantly in-migration urban areas have high proportions of a student age group between 15-19 years, and that reflects the importance of the educational factor in migration analysis. The municipal authorities of Kwangju are planning to block the way of the middle sxhool students who live in the outskirts of Kwangju to entrance to high school in the city. Thant may stir up migrations into Kwangju for the elementary and middle school students, because the city id expected to provide educational opportunities higher and better than remaining Chonnam areas. Population of Kwangju would, therefore, grow as the students migrate into the city. The findings on the residential intra-city movement in selected 5 Dongs indicate that implications of a short-distance movement re noteworthy; neighbour to neighbour, and the nearest stop in the way from the outer Kwangju as well. Trends in a short-distance movement are in accord with Ravensteins's "law of migra-tion". But in casw of the inter-provincial migra-tion to Kwangju, the number of in-migrants from remoter Seoul is more than that from nearer Chonbuk province. Therefore it supports the fact that the movement between capital region and far off local cities overcomes a distance barrier. The temporary mobility for a day has been increased as the standard of living has improved and it reaches a peak on weekend or on con-secutive holidays. The number of temporal movers to Kwangju from capital region and Yongnam area, southeastern Korea has a greatincrease in terms of the frequency of the passengers' mobility, in particular on Myongjol(the ethnic and traditional festival day) in com-parison with on weekdays. By comparison with two largest Myongjols, the number of movers is more on Chusok(The Full Moon festival on lunar August) than on Sol (lunar new year's day). Annual peak point of weekday movers appears in August because of summer vacation. But the lowest one appears in June, which is related to the busy farming season. A patients' move for medical services in on the increase with a change of living conditions. It is especially true in the industrial counties such as Kwangyang and Yochon. By way of conclusion, it should be pointed out that one of the problems we face in survey of migration volume by the survival rate method is that the survival rate somtimes exceeds the value 1.0, in normal states of which should be under 1.0. it may be due to the shortcoming from the census statistics. We should not give therefore too much stress on the importance of migrations or moves as an element of changes in spatial pattern. In cinclusion, the results of the study show some geographic facts as the followings: 1. One of the outstanding phenomena in all types of movement is the seletivity of ages. The most important factors are related to education and employment. 2. Short-distance movement is carried out in accordance with Ravenstein's law, but in case long-distance movement, in-migration from capital region is prominent in spite of remoten-ces. The gravity between large cities such as Kwangju and Seoul, which has a frequent human movenent, causes urban implosion of small cities between those cities. 3. The temporary mobility for a day, in con-trast to that of permanent movement, is more related to transportation, and its volumes and annual variations are a large-scale. 4. Passengers' mobility is high in industrial cities. And the scope of patients' mobility is narrower than passengers'.

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Evaluation of Dose and Position Compensation of Parotid Gland Using CT On-rail System in Head-and-Neck Cancer (두경부 암환자 치료 시 CT On-rail System을 이용한 이하선의 위치 보정 및 선량 평가)

  • Jang, Hyeong-Jun;Im, Chung-Geun;Chun, Geum-Sung;Jeong, Il-Seon;Kim, Hoi-Nam
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.83-89
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The checking method of target and normal structure are used by MVCBCT, KVCBCT, CT On-rail System, Ultrasound in H&N cancer patient. In case of MVCT, the utilization of bone structure is valuable to check around tissue. But the utilization of soft tissue is not enough. The point of this paper is dose variation in movable parotid and changeable volume of H&N cancer patient of CT On-rail System. Materials and Methods: The object of H&N cancer patient is 5 in this hospital. The selected patient are scanned ARTISTE CT Vision (CT On-ral System) a triweekly. After CT scanning, tranfered coordinates are obtained by movable of parotid gland comparison with planning image. Checking for the changeable volume of parotid gland. A Obtained CT image are tranfered to the RTP System. So dose variation are checked by following changed volume. Results: The changes of target coordinate by the parotid gland movement are X: -0.4~0.4 cm, Y: -0.4~0.3 cm, Z: -0.3~0.3 cm. the volume of GTV is decreased to about 7.11%/week and then both parotid gland volume are shrinked about 4.81%/week (Lt), 2.91%/week (Rt). At the same time, each parotid gland are diminished in radiation dose as 3.66%/week (Lt), 2.01%/week. Conclusion: Images from CT on the rail System which are able to aquire the better quality images of soft tissue in Target area than MVCBCT. After replanning and dose redistribution by required images, It could gain not only the correction of the patient set-tup errors but exact dose distribution. Accordingly, the delivery of compensated dose, It makes that we could do Adaptive Targeting Radiotherapy and need Real Time Adaptive Targeting Radiotherapy by reduce beam delivary time.

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A Model to Measure the Success of a Web-based Information System at a Government Agency - the Chungwadae Case (공공기관 업무관리시스템 성과평가 모형 개발에 관한 연구: 청와대 업무관리시스템(e지원시스템)을 중심으로)

  • Bae, Lee-Chul;Hong, Il-Yoo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.97-115
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    • 2008
  • Introduction The e-government is concerned with using Internet and Web technologies to exchange information and services with citizens, businesses and other related organizations, and it centers on three functions, namely informational, interactive, and transactional [UN, 2001]. Many developed countries like the U.S. have been actively involved in e-government projects, since they enable both more effective public services for citizens and more efficient internal operations. Korea is among these leading countries that are planning to leverage computer and communication technologies to provide for integration of work processes and information as well as convenient access to information and services. For this reason, evaluating e-government projects is becoming a crucial issue for both researchers and policy-makers. However, most research to date has primarily focused on a model of success of an e-government system designed for citizens, overlooking internal systems specifically created for employees working in a public organization. This paper is intended to propose a model to measure the success of a Web-based information system designed for use by internal users at Chungwadae, the executive branch of Korea's central government. The paper is also aimed at applying the model to the assessment of the present system being used at Chungwadae in comparison with the preceding system. Evaluating an e-Government System The most widely cited model of information systems success today is that of DeLone and McLean[1992, 2003, 2004]. The original model states that the success of an information system can be measured using six dimensions, including system quality, information quality, use, user satisfaction, individual impact, and organizational impact. Although the ultimate success of an information system may be reflected in the impact that the system has upon individuals as well as an organization, aspects of using the system such as system use and user satisfaction can play an important role in determining the system success, because the system would be a sheer failure if users don't like and use the system. As a response to criticisms given by numerous researchers, the authors adapted their model to fit the emerging Web-based environment. The revised model[DeLone and McLean, 2003] they offered included an additional quality dimension, namely service quality, and combined individual and organizational impacts into net benefits which can also influence user satisfaction. The e-government system success model can be built around this updated model. Our model incorporates information quality, system quality, and service quality as in the DeLone and McLean model. However, the 'system use' dimension has been replaced by perceived usefulness, as suggested by Seddon[1998]. In addition, because the e-government systems that this paper focuses on are internal public systems used in government agencies, the 'net benefits' dimension has been replaced by perceived work efficiency. Based on the proposed model, a total of nine hypotheses have been formulated which we tested using an empirical analysis. Methods A questionnaire form has been created with items that are designed to examine the relationships among the variables in the model. The questionnaire has been handed over, in person, to 65 members of Chungwadae staff who are now actively using the E-Support System, the present information system created to support internal work at Chungwadae. We made arrangements to meet with each individual who agreed to participate in our survey, and helped to fill out the survey form with explanations. Of the 65 copies that were delivered, only 33 were returned, and 30 responses of these have been adopted for our analysis, since three were not valid. The extremely small sample size was due to the limited number of staff members who had adequate experience required of this study. Results We gathered data from the questionnaire survey and analyzed them using a regression analysis to test the hypotheses. As shown in the table below, the results indicated that all three dimensions of an information system’s quality are positively related to user satisfaction. However, information quality and system quality were found to be positively related to perceived usefulness, while service quality was not. In addition, perceived usefulness is not positively related to user satisfaction, implying that a user may find a system useful, but may not be satisfied with it. Finally, user satisfaction and perceived usefulness both are positively related to perceived work efficiency. This suggests that workers' positive experience with the system is important to guarantee favorable work efficiency. Conclusions We conclude that the proposed model proved useful in measuring the success of an internal information system used by a government agency. To demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of the model in the paper, we applied the model to the assessment of the present internal system used at Chungwadae in comparison with the preceding system. The results showed that the present system outperforms the preceding one in a statistically significant way. Future research will have to focus on applying the model to Korea's governmental agencies other than Chungwadae and examine whether it proves applicable in different types of governmental organizations.

Birth and Infant Death Reporting System via Computer Network (출생 및 영아사망 신고체계 및 전산정보체계 개발)

  • Park, Jung-Han;Lee, Young-Sook;Rhee, Jung-Ae;Cho, Hyun;Chung, Young-Hae;Park, Soon-Woo;Jun, Hae-Ri
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.125-148
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    • 1998
  • Accurate vital statistics are essential for a national health planning and evaluation. Among various vital statistics, birth and death rates, and infant and matemal mortality rates together with the causes of death are the very basic ones for above purposes as well as for the maternal and child health management. These statistics are based on the birth and death reports. It is required by law to report every birth and death within one month after its occurrence. However, in case of a neonatal death occurring prior to the birth report, most of the birth and death are not reported. Thus accurate infant and maternal mortality rates are not available yet in Korea. The main objective of this study is to develop a birth and infant death reporting system via computer network. We designed a new birth report form based on the current form and data from the analysis of medical record forms of 14 hospitals. A new form is basically addition of essential medical information to the current birth report form. Since a revision of the rules and regulations related wtih the birth report is necessary to use a new form, we kept the current from intact to make it acceptable to the government office for a field trial. We also developed computer programs for data input for birth and death reports at a medical faciltiy, data processing for production of maternal and child health indices at a health center, and management of maternal and child health services including immunization and postantal care at health center. The birth certificate and birth report can be printed out at a medical facility. The computer packages were programmed by Borland Delphi 3.0 and can be run under Windows 95 system. We proposed a new birth and death reporting system via computer network after a field trial for data input, transmission, and processing. The medical and demographic data o birth and death at medical facilities will be sent to health centers directly via computer network. The health center will retain the medical data for analysis and forward only the data for birth and death reports required by current regulations to the Dong, Up, or Myun Office. Once the birth or death is reported via computer network to the Dong Office, then the Dong Office will notify the baby's mother of the birth report and request to submit the baby's name by mail. When the baby's name its submitted. the Dong Office will forward the birth reports to the Common Court and Statistics Agency in the same way as the current system, Upon the completion of birth registration of the Common Court, the court will issue the birth certificate to mother which will be used in lieu of the family record. The advantages of proposed birth and death reporting system via computer network ar as follows ; I) The accuracy, timing, and completeness of reporting will be improved and more accurate maternal and child health indices can be obtained, ii) The maternal and child health services of health center will be obtained, iii) Epidemiologic data for pregnancy and birth can be obtained, iv) Manpower for birth and death reporting will be saved.

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Interstitial Vaginal Needle Implantation in Gynecological Tumors : Design and Construction of Applicator (부인과암에서 조직내 삽입 방사선치료 - Applicator의 고안 및 제작-)

  • Kang, Seung-Hee;Chun, Mi-Son;Kang, Hae-Jin;Jung, Chil;Son, Jeong-Hyae
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : It is not a simple task to achieve the ideal isodose curve with a standard vaginal applicator or sing1e plane needle impant in the paravaginal tissue when primary or recurrent gynecological neoplasms(cervical cancers, vaginal cancers and vulvar cancers) are treated as a boost following external beam radiotherapy. The authors introduce the development and construction of a simple, inexpensive, customized applicator for volume implant to maximize the radiation dose to the tumor while minimizing the dose to the rectum and the bladder. Materials and Methods : Nine patients underwent Ir-192 transperineal interstitial implantation for either recurrent(5 cases) or primary(3 cases) cervical cancers or primary vaginal cancer(1 case) between August 1994 and February 1998 at Ajou university hospital. First 3 cases were performed with a sing1e plane implant guided by digital palpation. Because of inadequate isodose coverage in the tumor volume in first 3 cases, we designed and constructed interstitial vaginal applicator for volume implant to improve tumor dose distribution and homogeneity while sparing the surrounding normal tissue. Our applicators consist of vaginal obturator and perineal template that made of the clear acrylamide and dental mold material$(Provil^{(R)})$. The applicators were customized individually according to the tumor size and its location Both HDR and LDR irradiation were given with these applicators accomodating 6 Fr needles(Microselectron Nucletron). The pretreatment planning prior to actual implant was performed whenever possible. Results : Needles can be inserted easily and evenly into the tumor volume through the holes of templates, requiring less efforts and time for the implant procedure. Our applicators made of materials available from commercial vendors. These have an advantage that require easy procedure, and spend relatively short time to construct. Also it was possible to fabricate applicators to individualize according to the tumor size and its location and to achieve the ideal isodose coverage. We found an accurate needle arrangement and ideal dose distribution through the CT scan that was obtained in 3 cases after needle implant. Three patients with primary cervical and vaginal cancers were controlled locally at final follow up. But all recurrent cases failed to do so. Conclusion : The authors introduce inexpensive, simple interstitial vaginal templates which were self-designed and constructed using materials available from commercial vendors such as acrylanide and dental mold material $(Provil^{(R)})$.

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The Evaluation of Radiation Therapy and Combined-modality Therapy for Non-small-cell Lung Cancer in Elderly (고령의 비소세포성폐암 환자의 방사선 및 병용치료에 대한 효과 평가)

  • Yoon, Won-Sup;Yang, Dae-Sik;Kim, Chul-Yong
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2007
  • [ $\underline{Purpose}$ ]: To compare radiation therapy alone to combined modality therapy about survival rate and tolerance of elderly patients ($70=or{\geq}$) with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). $\underline{Materials\;and\;Methods}$: Between 1998 and 2002, 57 patients given radiation therapy due to NSCLC (Stage III) were analysed retrospectively. Radiation therapy alone (RT), concurrent chemoradiation (CRT), and sequential chemoradiation (SCRT) was done to 33, 16 and 8 patients, respectively. Patients' median age was 74 (range $70{\sim}85$). Male and female are 51 patients and 6 patients, respectively. 23 patients were stage IIIa and 34 were stage IIIb. Patients' characteristic distribution of RT and CRT was not significantly different except mass size that RT has a bigger than CRT. The fraction size of radiation therapy was 1.8 Gy in CRT and $1.8{\sim}3\;Gy$ in other groups. Total radiation dose was $51{\sim}63\;Gy$ according to the fraction size. If the prescribed total radiation dose was successfully irradiated, we stated that it was completion of radiation therapy. $\underline{Results}$: 52 patients were dead. Median period of radiation therapy was as follow: RT, 35 days, CRT, 60.5 days and SCRT, 35 days. Overall median survival time (MST) was 10.1 months. The 1 yr- and 2 yr-overall survival rate was 39.8% and 17.6%, respectively. MST of RT, CRT and SCRT was 8.9, 8.2 and 11.7 months, respectively. The 1 yr survival rate of RT, CRT and SCRT was 38.4%, 37.5% and 50% (not significant). Patients given incomplete radiation therapy were 12 (RT, 5 CRT, 6 SCRT, 1). N stage (p=0.081) and the difference of treatment methods (p=0.079) were the factors affecting incompletion of radiation therapy, but it was not significant. In case of combined-agents chemotherapy, 4 of 8 ceased radiation therapy. T stage ($T{\geq}3$), mass size (${\geq}5\;cm$), Karnofsky performance scale (${\leq}70$) and completion of radiation therapy were the prognostic factors in uni- and multi-variate analysis. $\underline{Conclusion}$: In elderly patients with NSCLC, radiation therapy alone was a treatment method with similar survival period compared with other methods. Generally, patients given radiation therapy alone was tolerable to a treatment. Before planning concurrent chemoirradiation in elderly patients with NSCLC, physicians pay attention to a selection of patients and chemotherapy agents considering general condition and toxicity.

The Usefulness Assessment of Attenuation Correction and Location Information in SPECT/CT (SPECT/CT에서 감쇠 보정 및 위치 정보의 유용성 평가)

  • Choi, Jong-Sook;Jung, Woo-Young;Shin, Sang-Ki;Cho, Shee-Man
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.214-221
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: We make a qualitative analysis of whether Fusion SPECT/CT can find lesion's anatomical sites better than existing SPECT or not, and we want to show the usefulness of SPECT/CT through finding out effects of CT attenuation correction on SPECT images. Materials and Method: 1. The evaluation of fusion images: This study comprised patients who was tested $^{131}I$-MIBG, Bone, $^{111}In$-Octreotide, Meckel's diverticulum, Parathyroid MIBI with Precedence 16 or Symbia T2 from 2008 Jan to Aug. We compared SPECT/CT image with non fusion image and make a qualitative analysis. 2. The evaluation of attenuation correction: We classified 38 patients who was tested 201Tl myocardial exam with Symbia T2 into 5 sections by using Cedars Sinai' QPS program - Ant, Inf, Lat, Septum, Apex. And we showed each section's perfusion states by percentage. We compared the each section's perfusion-states differences between CT AC and Non AC by average${\pm}$standard deviation. Results: 1. The evaluation of fusion images : In high energy $^{131}I$ cases, it was hard to grasp exact anatomical lesions due to difference between regions and surrounding lesions' uptake level. After combining with CT, we could grabs anatomical lesion more exactly. And in meckel's diverticulum case or to find lesions around bowels or organs with $^{111}In$ cases, it demonstrates its superiority. Bone SPECT/CT images help to distinguish between disk spaces certainly and give correct results. 2. The evaluation of attenuation correction: There is no significant difference statistically in Ant and Lat (p>0.05), but there is a meaningful difference in Inferior, Apex and Septum (p<0.05). AC perfusion at inferior wall in the 5 sections of myocardium: The perfusion difference between Non AC perfusion image ($68.58{\pm}7.55$) and CT corrected perfusion image ($76.84{\pm}6.52$) was the largest by $8.26{\pm}4.95$ (p<0.01, t=10.29). Conclusion: Nuclear medicine physicians can identify not only molecular image which shows functional activity of lesions but also anatomical location information of lesions with more accuracy using the combination of SPECT and CT systems. Of course this combination helps nuclear medicine physician find out the abnormal parts. Moreover combined data sets help separate between normal group and abnormal group in complicated body part. So clinicians can carry out diagnosis and treatment planning at the same time with a single test image. In addition, when we examine a myocardium in thorax where attenuation can occur easily, we can trust perfusion more in a certain region in SPECT test because CT provides the capability for accurate attenuation correction. In these reasons, we think we can prove the justice after treatment fusion image.

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Evaluation of Future Water Deficit for Anseong River Basin Under Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 안성천 유역의 미래 물 부족량 평가)

  • Lee, Dae Wung;Jung, Jaewon;Hong, Seung Jin;Han, Daegun;Joo, Hong Jun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2017
  • The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about $0.85^{\circ}C$ since 1880 due to the global warming. The temperature increase affects hydrologic phenomenon and so the world has been suffered from natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Therefore, especially, in the aspect of water deficit, we may require the accurate prediction of water demand considering the uncertainty of climate in order to establish water resources planning and to ensure safe water supply for the future. To do this, the study evaluated future water balance and water deficit under the climate change for Anseong river basin in Korea. The future rainfall was simulated using RCP 8.5 climate change scenario and the runoff was estimated through the SLURP model which is a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the basin. Scenario and network for the water balance analysis in sub-basins of Anseong river basin were established through K-WEAP model. And the water demand for the future was estimated by the linear regression equation using amounts of water uses(domestic water use, industrial water use, and agricultural water use) calculated by historical data (1965 to 2011). As the result of water balance analysis, we confirmed that the domestic and industrial water uses will be increased in the future because of population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate change due to global warming. However, the agricultural water use will be gradually decreased. Totally, we had shown that the water deficit problem will be critical in the future in Anseong river basin. Therefore, as the case study, we suggested two alternatives of pumping station construction and restriction of water use for solving the water deficit problem in the basin.