• 한국의류학회지
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.745-756
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• 1999

The purpose of this study is to investigate the characteristics of the clothing consumption expenditures by the business cycles in Korea during the period of first quarter of 1979 to second quarter of 1998. Business cycles were examined using data GNP from the National Accounts published by the Bank of Korea and clothing expenditures from the monthly statistics of Korea published by the National Statistical Office of Korea. Data were analyzed by regression analysis standard deviation sample cross-correlation coefficient and skewness statistics. The main results are as follows. 1. During the period of 1979.I-1998.II GNP and per-person consumption expenditures for clothing and shoes have continuously increased except during 1980 and the recent depression of the national economy. Clothing expenditures dropped severely during the two recent depression of the national economy. Clothing expenditure dropped severely during the two depression periods. Clothing expenditures were the highest in the fourth quarter and the lowest in the third quarter of the year. 2. According to the results of the regression analysis the business cycles had a significant influence on the clothing expenditures. the volatility of the clothing expenditure was 2.60 times higher than that of the business cycles. 3. Clothing expenditures displayed procyclical fluctuation and coincident movement to the business cycles. Also clothing expenditures showed an unsymmetric behavior over the expansion phases and contraction phases of the business cycles. That is the clothing expenditures increased slowly in the expansion phases and decreased quickly and severely in the contraction phases of the business cycles.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.77-98
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• 2022

This paper empirically verifies that the types of capital adjustment costs serve as an important mechanism in relation to investment decision-making after confirming that the investment dispersion of Korean firms is pro-cyclical and can affect business cycles. Specifically, it is found through empirical methods using corporate financial data that capital adjustment costs generally assumed to take a quadratic form in macroeconomics are asymmetric and irreversible in the Korean economy. In particular, capital adjustment costs are empirically proven to cause investment dispersion to expand given that the substitution effect of the marginal value to the marginal cost for one unit of investment in the inter-temporal investment decision is affected by that cost with regard to the resale of owned equipment assets, as opposed to new investments in equipment assets. We ultimately show, albeit indirectly, that investment dispersion can affect business cycles as capital adjustment costs influences investment decisions. What is implied is that the capital adjustment cost is not merely an exogenously deep parameter that fits the dynamics of business cycles in a macroeconomic model but could instead be a policy variable that can be endogenized through government policies.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.409-427
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• 2019

This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.245-273
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• 2024

This paper sets up a small open new Keynesian economy model with constrained households and incomplete markets to address the driving forces of business cycles in Korea. It shows that there exists a substantial fraction of constrained households who cannot have access to financial market. Furthermore, the estimated model reveals that a TANK model is better than a RANK model in explaining business cycles in Korea. The effect of domestic productivity shock on Korean economy has dominated in the variations of output, while the contribution of the foreign productivity shock to the variations of output and inflation has increased after the Asian financial crisis. The monetary policy shock has dominated the variation of inflation at short and medium horizons.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.103-128
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• 2013

This paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation-specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driving forces of regional business cycles. Evidence for regional business cycle synchronization is particularly strong for Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Japan shows weak evidence of regional synchronization. On the other hand, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and China are decoupling from regional business cycles. The driver of monetary aggregate is the most significant determinant of regional fluctuations of macroeconomic aggregates, whereas oil price and productivity are on average important driving forces of nation-specific fluctuations of real economic activities.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.327-346
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• 2023

In the recent 20 years, the capital flows between Korea and European Union have increased and diversified. In particular, the business cycles of two economies have shown similar patterns since the Global Financial Crisis. This study examines both trends and investigates the roles of finance and trade on business cycle co-movements between two economies. The empirical results show that the business cycles can diverge due to either the common shocks or the country-specific shocks. Furthermore, financial integration increases the business cycle co-movements driven by both the country-specific shocks and the common shocks between two economies.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.203-223
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• 2019

This paper examines the interactions between financial conditions and business cycles in Mongolia, a small open economy, heavily depending on commodity exports. We construct two financial conditions indexes based on the reduced form IS model and the vector autoregression (VAR) model as surveillance tools to quantify the degree of the financial conditions. We find that real short-term interest rate and real effective exchange rate gap get a higher weight in the FCIs. Both business and financial cycles are often more pronounced in Mongolia, and financial condition is dependent of the financial and monetary policies in place. The analysis of the predictive power of the FCIs for business cycles shows that they have predictive information for the near-term economic activities. FCIs are also helpful in signaling inflation turning points.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.5-37
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• 2011

This article aims to clarify what is the best investment behavior in Capital Intensive Industries(hereinafter CIIs) which show repeated business cycles. In CIIs, investments is centered in the period of upturns and goes beyond the adequate level because of the time that takes to completion of facilities. This over-investment causes oversupply and downturn, and in period of downturn, investments shrinks under the adequate level. The repeated change of over-investment and under-investment is the reason for the business cycles. In this article, a simulation model replicating the business cycles in CIIs was constructed and the effects of various investment strategies was tested. The results are as follows. First, the investment behavior following market condition causes the ongoing fluctuation of profits. Second, strategic increase in flexibility such as adjustment of facility utilization and shortening of facility construction time contributes to the increase in profit and stabilization of income. Third, in relation to market condition, the constant investment is more profitable in stagnated market and the counter-market investment is more profitable in growing market. In sum, it is desirable not to synchronize their investment with those of competitors.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.147-165
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• 2008

The researches on cyclical patterns of R&D investment has a long history in developed economies since the Schumpeterian hypothesis that long-term productivity-enhancing innovative activities increase during recession. But in Korea the cyclical patterns of R&D investment is one of the unexplored academic areas. Unlike theoretical explanation of R&D's cyclical pattern, empirical results has shown that R&D investment is procyclical to business cycles in developed countries. This paper investigates whether Korean R&D investment show procyclical or countercyclical pattern to business cycles. The empirical results show that Korean R&D investment in private area is procyclical to business cycles with statistical significance, which confirms the credit-constraint theory's prediction, while public area's is not sensitive to them. Public R&D investment has long-term investment characteristics and can be utilized to stabilize procyclically-fluctuating private R&D investment.

• 경제분석
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.39-64
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• 2020

전형적인 경기변동모형의 경우 노동시간 선택 문제만을 고려하여 노동시장의 주요 거시 변수인 고용과 실업을 명시적으로 설명하지 못하는 어려움이 있다. 본 논문에서는 뉴 케인지안 유형의 가격 경직성 모형에 노동시장의 탐색 및 매칭 마찰을 도입하고 이를 베이지안 방법으로 추정하여 우리나라 고용 및 실업의 움직임을 전체 경기변동의 움직임에 비추어 살펴보았다. 추정 결과 우리나라 실업률은 노동공급 충격과 더불어 노동수요 측면인 기술충격에 의하여 많은 부분 설명되는 것으로 나타났다. 아울러 노동시장 변동에서 기업과 노동자 간의 임금 협상에서 기인하는 협상력 충격도 상당 부분 중요한 것으로 나타났는데 협상력 충격은 경기 및 고용에 부정적인 영향을 미치므로 이에 대하여 주의를 기울일 필요가 있다.