• 제목/요약/키워드: bid price

검색결과 135건 처리시간 0.036초

시뮬레이션을 기반(基盤)으로 하는 영업이윤율(營業利潤率) 추정(推定) 시스템 (Simulation-Based Stochastic Markup Estimation System $(S^2ME)$)

  • 이창용;김률희;임태경;김화중;이동은
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2007년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.109-113
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    • 2007
  • This paper introduces a system, Simulation based Stochastic Markup Estimation System (S2ME), for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the S2ME. The existing methods has four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and who is the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) The deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy contributed by these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

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턴키·대안입찰공사 낙찰자 결정방식에 의한 수주현황 분석 (Orders Status Analysis on the Successful Bidder Decision Method of Turnkey Alternative Tendering Construction)

  • 박홍태;이양규
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.771-780
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    • 2013
  • 과거에 시행한 심사제도는 입찰참가자격사전심사 및 기본설계평가와 가격평가로 구분하여 최종 낙찰자를 선정하였으나, 2010년 1월 1일부터 현재까지 턴키 대안입찰공사는 설계 적합 최적가 방식, 종합 평가 방식(입찰가격조정, 설계점수조정, 가중치기준), 확정금액 최상 설계 방식의 낙찰자 결정방식을 선택하고 있다. 이러한 제도적인 문제로 발주기관은 동일 유사한 공사에 대해 서로 다른 낙찰자 결정방식을 적용하고 있는 사례가 종종 있어 왔다. 그러므로 이 연구는 국내에서 시행된 토목부분 턴키 대안입찰공사 발주현황, 건수 및 수주실적, 공종별 발주기관별 수주실적, 세부방식 가중치 낙찰자 수주실적 등의 분석을 통해 국내 턴키 대안입찰공사 실정에 적합한 낙찰자 선정기준을 제시하였다.

FACTOR ANALYSIS ON CONTRACTOR COMPETITION STRATEGY: A HONG KONG STUDY

  • L. Y. Shen;Y. T. Tan;S C Song;M X Yu
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 2th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.289-298
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    • 2007
  • The development of construction industry has led to the increase in the number of criteria imposed by project clients for selecting contractors. For example, clients often request tenderers to satisfy various conditions such as tight programme, financial strength, managerial ability, relevant work experiences, technical strength, high workmanship standard, safety requirement, quality specification, and yet others. This trend has attracted research interests of devising various methods for helping project clients to assess contractors' bids. For example, in recent development, the Works Bureau of the Hong Kong Government has introduced two mechanisms in tender evaluation for various public work contracts, namely, the Marking Scheme effective from June 2002 and the Formula Approach effective from November 2002 [1], [2]. These approaches evaluate a contractor's tender by considering collectively its tender price and performance attributes, the latter including contractor experience, past performance, technical resources and technical content of his proposal. The tender with the highest combined price and performance score (CPPS) will be normally recommended for acceptance. It appears, however, that there is little existing research in helping contractors to identify a competition strategy that enables the contractor to offer his most competitive bid collectively taking into account his resource capacities and project client's multiple performance criteria. This paper examines the factors affecting contractor's competition strategy to compete for works in Hong Kong. The understanding about the factors will contribute to identifying effective competition strategy. The data used for the analysis were collected from Hong Kong construction industry. The research findings may provide valuable references for investigating effective competition strategies in other construction industries outside the region.

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Genetic Parameter Estimates of Carcass Traits under National Scale Breeding Scheme for Beef Cattle

  • Do, ChangHee;Park, ByungHo;Kim, SiDong;Choi, TaeJung;Yang, BohSuk;Park, SuBong;Song, HyungJun
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제29권8호
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    • pp.1083-1094
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    • 2016
  • Carcass and price traits of 72,969 Hanwoo cows, bulls and steers aged 16 to 80 months at slaughter collected from 2002 to 2013 at 75 beef packing plants in Korea were analyzed to determine heritability, correlation and breeding value using the Multi-Trait restricted maximum likelihood (REML) animal model procedure. The traits included carcass measurements, scores and grades at 24 h postmortem and bid prices at auction. Relatively high heritability was found for maturity ($0.41{\pm}0.031$), while moderate heritability estimates were obtained for backfat thickness ($0.20{\pm}0.018$), longissimus muscle (LM) area ($0.23{\pm}0.020$), carcass weight ($0.28{\pm}0.019$), yield index ($0.20{\pm}0.018$), yield grade ($0.16{\pm}0.017$), marbling ($0.28{\pm}0.021$), texture ($0.14{\pm}0.016$), quality grade ($0.26{\pm}0.016$) and price/kg ($0.24{\pm}0.025$). Relatively low heritability estimates were observed for meat color ($0.06{\pm}0.013$) and fat color ($0.06{\pm}0.012$). Heritability estimates for most traits were lower than those in the literature. Genetic correlations of carcass measurements with characteristic scores or quality grade of carcass ranged from -0.27 to +0.21. Genetic correlations of yield grade with backfat thickness, LM area and carcass weight were 0.91, -0.43, and -0.09, respectively. Genetic correlations of quality grade with scores of marbling, meat color, fat color and texture were -0.99, 0.48, 0.47, and 0.98, respectively. Genetic correlations of price/kg with LM area, carcass weight, marbling, meat color, texture and maturity were 0.57, 0.64, 0.76, -0.41, -0.79, and -0.42, respectively. Genetic correlations of carcass price with LM area, carcass weight, marbling and texture were 0.61, 0.57, 0.64, and -0.73, respectively, with standard errors ranging from ${\pm}0.047$ to ${\pm}0.058$. The mean carcass weight breeding values increased by more than 8 kg, whereas the mean marbling scores decreased by approximately 0.2 from 2000 through 2009. Overall, the results suggest that genetic improvement of productivity and carcass quality could be obtained under the national scale breeding scheme of Korea for Hanwoo and that continuous efforts to improve the breeding scheme should be made to increase genetic progress.

시계열분석을 통한 실적공사비의 노무비 분석 및 예측에 관한 연구 (Time Series Analysis and Forecast for Labor Cost of Actual Cost Data)

  • 이현석;이은영;김예상
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.24-34
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    • 2013
  • 2004년부터 정부는 무분별한 저가입찰을 방지하고, 기술 경쟁에 의한 적정 시장 가격 반영 및 효율적인 계약관련 업무를 추진하는 것을 목적으로 실적공사비 제도를 도입 시행하고 있다. 하지만 실적공사비 제도의 도입이 낙찰단가 하락에 의한 정부의 예산 절감에만 기여할 뿐, 실질적인 시장가격을 반영하고 있지 못하고 있다는 우려의 목소리 또한 꾸준히 제기되고 있는 실정이다. 낙찰단가 하락에 의한 일반건설업체의 비용 부담은 전문건설업체로 전가되며 최종적으로 건설노동자의 피해로 이어질 가능성이 크기에, 실적공사비에 적정 가격을 반영하고 현실화하는 것은 성공적인 실적공사비 제도의 정착에 매우 중요한 요소이다. 따라서 본 연구는 노무비를 중심으로 노무중심공정을 도출하고 이들의 실적공사비단가와 해당 기능공의 시중노임단가를 비교하여 실적공사비의 현실화수준을 파악하고, 시계열분석을 통해 변화를 분석하고 예측하였다. 시장가격이 반영되지 않은 낙찰 단가의 실질적 하락은 노무 환경의 변화를 가속화하고, 임금체불, 업체부도 등 건설근로자의 직접적인 피해로 이어질 수 있기에 향후 본 연구가 현행 실적공사비 제도의 문제점을 해결하고, 개선방안을 수립하기 위한 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

A Study on Performance Analyses of Korea's Bidding and Contract Systems for Public Construction Projects

  • Beak, Seung-Ho;Kang, Tai-Kyung;Park, Wonyoung;Lee, Yoo-Sub
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • 제5권3호
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    • pp.18-28
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    • 2015
  • Bidding and contract systems are used for public construction projects to select contractors following fair competition principles and to execute national budgets effectively. Many challenges have arisen due to a lack of transparency and fairness and because bidding practices have been luck-based. Few comprehensive or comparative analyses have been conducted on the performance and limitations of bidding and contract systems, and empirical analyses designed to improve policies on and the practice of such systems are lacking. This study empirically analyzed current bidding and contract systems to seek ways of improving them. The study proposes several alternatives to resolve the problems with and irrationalities of the current system: 1) improving bidding and selection systems by changing them from a luck-based price competition into a technical merit- and value-based competition; 2) improving the assessment criteria to meet the current market level of bid and winning prices; 3) adjusting contractual responsibilities and sharing structures to meet the current trend; and 4) strengthening the competitiveness and expanding the social responsibility-based procurement systems of construction companies.

시뮬레이션을 통한 제철플랜트 배관장치 설계비용의 변동 범위 분석 (Analysis of Cost Variation of Piping Equipment Design of a Steel Manufacturing Plant by Simulation)

  • 배경석;허기무;윤성훈;문윤재;유호선;이재헌
    • 플랜트 저널
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 배관설계항목을 조사하여 전문가 면담 및 설문을 통해 주요 설계항목을 도출하였고, 이를 국내외 사례 프로젝트에 적용하여 주요 배관설계 항목별 비중 및 비용변동 범위를 조사하였다. 조사결과를 바탕으로 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 배관설계비 전체에 대한 비용변동 범위를 분석하여 유사 프로젝트 수행 시 입찰단계에서 합리적인 입찰금액 산정 및 입찰참여에 대한 타당성을 검토할 수 있는 방안을 제시하였다.

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설계 $\cdot$ 시공일괄입찰제도의 수주현황 사례분석 (Case Study in Current State of Amount of Order for Turnkey Project)

  • 이양규;강인석
    • 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건설관리학회 2004년도 제5회 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.197-202
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    • 2004
  • 설계$\cdot$시공일괄입찰제도는 기술인력이 부족한 발주자를 대신해서 건설사업을 효율적으로 수행할 수 있는 제도로서 공사기간의 단축이 가능하고, 건설공사의 품질향상, 설계와 시공의 통합에 의한 기술력제고 효과를 기대할 수 있으나, 상대적으로 계약자 측면에서는 책임 일원화에 따른 어려움이 발생되고 있다. 본 연구는 국내에서 운영되고 있는 설계$\cdot$시공일괄입찰제도 발주현황과 낙찰률 현황, 공종별 시행규모, 발주처별 시행규모, 심의방식 등을 분석하여 동 제도의 문제점을 구체적으로 분석하고자 하며, 기본적인 제도의 개선방안을 제시한다.

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Fuzzy Regression Model Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers for Re-auction Data

  • Kim, Il Kyu;Lee, Woo-Joo;Yoon, Jin Hee;Choi, Seung Hoe
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.72-80
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    • 2016
  • Re-auction happens when a bid winner defaults on the payment without making second in-line purchase declaration even after determining sales permission. This is a process of selling under the court's authority. Re-auctioning contract price of real estate is largely influenced by the real estate business, real estate value, and the number of bidders. This paper is designed to establish a statistical model that deals with the number of bidders participating especially in apartment re-auctioning. For these, diverse factors are taken into consideration, including ratio of minimum sales value from the point of selling to re-auctioning, number of bidders at the time of selling, investment value of the real estate, and so forth. As an attempt to consider ambiguous and vague factors, this paper presents a comparatively vague concept of real estate and bidders as trapezoid fuzzy number. Two different methods based on the least squares estimation are applied to fuzzy regression model in this paper. The first method is the estimating method applying substitution after obtaining the estimators of regression coefficients, and the other method is to estimate directly from the estimating procedure without substitution. These methods are provided in application for re-auction data, and appropriate performance measure is also provided to compare the accuracies.

BIM기반 확률론적 GMP 산정방안에 관한 연구 (Probabilistic GMP Calculation Method based on BIM)

  • 고건호;김정훈;김현주;현창택
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2018년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.122-123
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    • 2018
  • Recently, CM at Risk delivery system(CM@R) that could solve the problems of Design Bid Build delivery(DBB) system has been emerging. In the CM@R delivery system, the contractor negotiates for a maximum guaranteed price(GMP) with the client at the design stage, and the contractor carries out the construction within the GMP. In CM @ R, the construction company with expertise in construction participates from the design stage to reflects the construction know-how in the design. On the other hand, the modification design frequently occurs due to the change of the construction cost when negotiating the GMP. In addition, uncertainties are inherent in the GMP calculation because the calculation is based on unfinished drawings and documents. This study proposes a probabilistic GMP estimation method applying MCS to the BIM - based cost prediction model, in order to extract the accurate quantity information when estimating the GMP and to cope with the change of the construction cost inherent in uncertainty.

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