• Title/Summary/Keyword: bias ratio

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Aerosol Light Absorption and Scattering Coefficient Measurements with a Photoacoustic and Nephelometric Spectrometer (광음향 및 네펠로미터 방식을 이용한 에어로졸 흡수 및 산란계수 측정)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyoung;Kim, Sang-Woo;Heo, Junghwa;Nam, Jihyun;Kim, Man-Hae;Yu, Yung-Suk;Lim, Han-Chul;Lee, Chulkyu;Heo, Bok-Haeng;Yoon, Soon-Chang
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.185-191
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    • 2015
  • Ambient measurements of aerosol light absorption (${\sigma}_a$) and scattering coefficients (${\sigma}_s$) were done at Gosan climate observatory during summer 2008 using a 3-wavelength photoacoustic soot spectrometer (PASS). PASS was deployed photoacoustic method for light absorption and integrated nephelometry for light scattering measurements. The ${\sigma}_a$ and ${\sigma}_s$ from PASS were compared with those from co-located aethalometer and nephelometer measurements. The aethalometer measurements of ${\sigma}_a$ correlated reasonably well with photoacoustic measurements, but the slope of the linear fitting line indicated the PASS measurement values of ${\sigma}_a$ were larger by a factor of 1.53. The nephelometer measurement values of ${\sigma}_s$ correlated very well with PASS measurements of ${\sigma}_s$, with a slope of 1.12 and a small offset. Comparing to the aethalometer measurements, the photoacoustic measurements of ${\sigma}_a$ didn't exhibit a significant (i.e., the ratio between aethalometer and PASS increased) change with increasing relative humidity (RH). The ratio of ${\sigma}_s$ between nephelometer and PASS increased with increasing RH, especially when the RH increased beyond 80%. This apparent increase in ${\sigma}_s$ with RH may be due to the contribution of hygroscopic growth of aerosols.

Sex Ratios, Size and Growth Variation, and Spatial and Age Distribution between the Sexes in Natural Populations of Three Species of Dioecious Rhus(Anacardiaceae) (자웅이주성(雌雄異株性) 옻나무속(屬) 3수종(樹種)의 자연집단(自然集團)에서 성비(性比)와 성간(性間) 생장량(生長量) 및 공간적(空間的) 분포(分布))

  • Kim, Sam-Shik;Lee, Jeong-Hwan;Chung, Jae-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.87 no.2
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    • pp.201-210
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    • 1998
  • Sex ratios, and patterns of tree size and growth variation, resource allocation, spatial and age class distribution between the sexes were investigated in natural populations of the sexual trees, R. trichocarpa and R. sylvestris, and the mainly asexual, clonal tree, R. javanica of the dioecious Rhus (Anacardiaceae) distributed in Korea. Sex ratios for three species exhibited a significant degree of female bias, but among the populations, sex ratios were seen to vary quite widely. The measurement of tree size and annual increment of male trees in R. trichocarpa and R. sylvestris were significantly higher than those of female trees, but not significantly different in R. javanica. In all of the species, flowering branch number per individual and inflorescence number per branch of males outnumbered those of females. Branch number per individual, rachis(leaf) number per branch and rachis(leaf) number per inflorescence were more in females than in males. These results were considered as reproductive efforts to increase the pollen supply in males and the fruit production in females. Spatial distribution analysis in two different populations of R. trichocarpa indicated that males and females were randomly distributed in space, but seedlings were clumped around parental trees. Analysis of age class distributions between the sexual reproduction trees, R. triclaocarpa and R. sylvestris, and the asexual, clonal tree, R. javanica showed a different distribution in frequencies of males and females in each age class. These results showed that sexual and asexual reproduction tree species had almost different preference of habitats, and different sex ratio and annual growth.

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Development of High-Resolution Fog Detection Algorithm for Daytime by Fusing GK2A/AMI and GK2B/GOCI-II Data (GK2A/AMI와 GK2B/GOCI-II 자료를 융합 활용한 주간 고해상도 안개 탐지 알고리즘 개발)

  • Ha-Yeong Yu;Myoung-Seok Suh
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.6_3
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    • pp.1779-1790
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    • 2023
  • Satellite-based fog detection algorithms are being developed to detect fog in real-time over a wide area, with a focus on the Korean Peninsula (KorPen). The GEO-KOMPSAT-2A/Advanced Meteorological Imager (GK2A/AMI, GK2A) satellite offers an excellent temporal resolution (10 min) and a spatial resolution (500 m), while GEO-KOMPSAT-2B/Geostationary Ocean Color Imager-II (GK2B/GOCI-II, GK2B) provides an excellent spatial resolution (250 m) but poor temporal resolution (1 h) with only visible channels. To enhance the fog detection level (10 min, 250 m), we developed a fused GK2AB fog detection algorithm (FDA) of GK2A and GK2B. The GK2AB FDA comprises three main steps. First, the Korea Meteorological Satellite Center's GK2A daytime fog detection algorithm is utilized to detect fog, considering various optical and physical characteristics. In the second step, GK2B data is extrapolated to 10-min intervals by matching GK2A pixels based on the closest time and location when GK2B observes the KorPen. For reflectance, GK2B normalized visible (NVIS) is corrected using GK2A NVIS of the same time, considering the difference in wavelength range and observation geometry. GK2B NVIS is extrapolated at 10-min intervals using the 10-min changes in GK2A NVIS. In the final step, the extrapolated GK2B NVIS, solar zenith angle, and outputs of GK2A FDA are utilized as input data for machine learning (decision tree) to develop the GK2AB FDA, which detects fog at a resolution of 250 m and a 10-min interval based on geographical locations. Six and four cases were used for the training and validation of GK2AB FDA, respectively. Quantitative verification of GK2AB FDA utilized ground observation data on visibility, wind speed, and relative humidity. Compared to GK2A FDA, GK2AB FDA exhibited a fourfold increase in spatial resolution, resulting in more detailed discrimination between fog and non-fog pixels. In general, irrespective of the validation method, the probability of detection (POD) and the Hanssen-Kuiper Skill score (KSS) are high or similar, indicating that it better detects previously undetected fog pixels. However, GK2AB FDA, compared to GK2A FDA, tends to over-detect fog with a higher false alarm ratio and bias.

Dry etching of polycarbonate using O2/SF6, O2/N2 and O2/CH4 plasmas (O2/SF6, O2/N2와 O2/CH4 플라즈마를 이용한 폴리카보네이트 건식 식각)

  • Joo, Y.W.;Park, Y.H.;Noh, H.S.;Kim, J.K.;Lee, S.H.;Cho, G.S.;Song, H.J.;Jeon, M.H.;Lee, J.W.
    • Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.16-22
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    • 2008
  • We studied plasma etching of polycarbonate in $O_2/SF_6$, $O_2/N_2$ and $O_2/CH_4$. A capacitively coupled plasma system was employed for the research. For patterning, we used a photolithography method with UV exposure after coating a photoresist on the polycarbonate. Main variables in the experiment were the mixing ratio of $O_2$ and other gases, and RF chuck power. Especially, we used only a mechanical pump for in order to operate the system. The chamber pressure was fixed at 100 mTorr. All of surface profilometry, atomic force microscopy and scanning electron microscopy were used for characterization of the etched polycarbonate samples. According to the results, $O_2/SF_6$ plasmas gave the higher etch rate of the polycarbonate than pure $O_2$ and $SF_6$ plasmas. For example, with maintaining 100W RF chuck power and 100 mTorr chamber pressure, 20 sccm $O_2$ plasma provided about $0.4{\mu}m$/min of polycarbonate etch rate and 20 sccm $SF_6$ produced only $0.2{\mu}m$/min. However, the mixed plasma of 60 % $O_2$ and 40 % $SF_6$ gas flow rate generated about $0.56{\mu}m$ with even low -DC bias induced compared to that of $O_2$. More addition of $SF_6$ to the mixture reduced etch of polycarbonate. The surface roughness of etched polycarbonate was roughed about 3 times worse measured by atomic force microscopy. However examination with scanning electron microscopy indicated that the surface was comparable to that of photoresist. Increase of RF chuck power raised -DC bias on the chuck and etch rate of polycarbonate almost linearly. The etch selectivity of polycarbonate to photoresist was about 1:1. The meaning of these results was that the simple capacitively coupled plasma system can be used to make a microstructure on polymer with $O_2/SF_6$ plasmas. This result can be applied to plasma processing of other polymers.

Long-term Efficacy of S-1 Monotherapy or Capecitabine Plus Oxaliplatin as Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Patients with Stage II or III Gastric Cancer after Curative Gastrectomy: a Propensity Score-Matched Multicenter Cohort Study

  • Lee, Chang Min;Yoo, Moon-Won;Son, Young-Gil;Oh, Sung Jin;Kim, Jong-Han;Kim, Hyoung-Il;Park, Joong-Min;Hur, Hoon;Jee, Ye Seob;Hwang, Sun-Hwi;Jin, Sung-Ho;Lee, Sang Eok;Park, Ji-Ho;Seo, Kyung Won;Park, Sungsoo;Kim, Chang Hyun;Jeong, In Ho;Lee, Han Hong;Choi, Sung Il;Lee, Sang-Il;Kim, Chan Young;Kim, In-Hwan;Son, Myoung-Won;Pak, Kyung Ho;Kim, Sungsoo;Lee, Moon-Soo;Min, Jae-Seok
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.152-164
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: To compare long-term disease-free survival (DFS) between patients receiving tegafur/gimeracil/oteracil (S-1) or capecitabine plus oxaliplatin (CAPOX) adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) for gastric cancer (GC). Materials and Methods: This retrospective multicenter observational study enrolled 983 patients who underwent curative gastrectomy with consecutive AC with S-1 or CAPOX for stage II or III GC at 27 hospitals in Korea between February 2012 and December 2013. We conducted propensity score matching to reduce selection bias. Long-term oncologic outcomes, including DFS rate over 5 years (over-5yr DFS), were analyzed postoperatively. Results: The median and longest follow-up period were 59.0 and 87.6 months, respectively. DFS rate did not differ between patients who received S-1 and CAPOX for pathologic stage II (P=0.677) and stage III (P=0.899) GC. Moreover, hazard ratio (HR) for recurrence did not differ significantly between S-1 and CAPOX (reference) in stage II (HR, 1.846; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.693-4.919; P=0.220) and stage III (HR, 0.942; 95% CI, 0.664-1.337; P=0.738) GC. After adjustment for significance in multivariate analysis, pT (4 vs. 1) (HR, 11.667; 95% CI, 1.595-85.351; P=0.016), pN stage (0 vs. 3) (HR, 2.788; 95% CI, 1.502-5.174; P=0.001), and completion of planned chemotherapy (HR, 2.213; 95% CI, 1.618-3.028; P<0.001) were determined as independent prognostic factors for DFS. Conclusions: S-1 and CAPOX AC regimens did not show significant difference in over-5yr DFS after curative gastrectomy in patients with stage II or III GC. The pT, pN stage, and completion of planned chemotherapy were prognostic factors for GC recurrence.

Development of lumped model to analyze the hydrological effects landuse change (토지이용 변화에 따른 수문 특성의 변화를 추적하기 위한 Lumped모형의 개발)

  • Son, Ill
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.233-252
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    • 1994
  • One of major advantages of Lumped model is its ability to simulate extended flows. A further advantage is that it requires only conventional, readily available hydrological data (rainfall, evaporation and runoff). These two advantages commend the use of this type of model for the analysis of the hydrological effects of landuse change. Experimental Catchment(K11) of Kimakia site in Kenga experienced three phases of landuse change for sixteen and half years. The Institute of Hydrology offered the hydrological data from the catchment for this research. On basis of Blackie's(l972) 9-parameter model, a new model(R1131) was reorganized in consideration of the following aspects to reflect the hydrological characteristics of the catchment: 1) The evapotranspiration necessary for the landuse hydrology, 2) high permeable soils, 3) small catchment, 4) input option for initial soil moisture deficit, and 5) othel modules for water budget analysis. The new model is constructed as a 11-parameter, 3-storage, 1-input option model. Using a number of initial conditions, the model was optimized to the data of three landuse phases. The model efficiencies were 96.78%, 97.20%, 94.62% and the errors of total flow were -1.78%, -3.36%, -5.32%. The bias of the optimized models were tested by several techniques, The extended flows were simulated in the prediction mode using the optimized model and the data set of the whole series of experimental periods. They are used to analyse the change of daily high and low-flow caused by landuse change. The relative water use ratio of the clearing and seedling phase was 60.21%, but that of the next two phases were 81.23% and 83.78% respectively. The annual peak flows of second and third phase at a 1.5-year return period were decreased by 31.3% and 31.2% compared to that of the first phase. The annual peak flow at a 50-year return period in the second phase was an increase of only 4.8%, and that in the third phase was an increase of 12.9%. The annual minimum flow at a 1.5-year return period was decreased by 34.2% in the second phase, and 34.3% in the third phase. The changes in the annual minimum flows were decreased for the larger return periods; a 20.2% decrease in the second phase and 20.9% decrease in the third phase at a 50-year return period. From the results above, two aspects could be concluded. Firstly, the flow regime in Catchment K11 was changed due to the landuse conversion from the clearing and seedling phade to the intermediate stage of pine plantation. But, The flow regime was little affected after the pine trees reached a certain height. Secondly, the effects of the pine plantation on the daily high- and low-flow were reduced with the increase in flood size and the severity of drought.

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A Study on the Effect of Donors' Utility on Their Intention for Donation Continuity Focusing on Private Contribution to Social Welfare Organizations (사회복지기관 개인기부자들의 기부효용감이 기부지속의도에 미치는 영향 -기관신뢰감과 자기수용감의 매개효과와 경제수준의 조절효과를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Wonjune
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.333-361
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    • 2014
  • By viewing donors for social welfare organization as both givers and beneficiaries, this study aims to address the correlations between the continuity of donors' contributions and enhanced sense of satisfaction as a consequence of participating in donation activities. The predominant concern of this study centers on: (1) the direct effects of individuals' emotional utility, demonstrable utility, trust toward donee organization, self acceptance on the continuation of their donation; (2) the direct effects of individuals' emotional utility, demonstrable utility, trust toward donee organizations on individuals' self-acceptance; (3) the direct effects of individuals' emotional utility, demonstrable utility on their trust toward a donee organization; (4) the indirect effects of individuals' self acceptance on two paths i.e. emotional utility${\rightarrow}$trust${\rightarrow}$self acceptance, and demonstrable utility${\rightarrow}$trust${\rightarrow}$self acceptance; (5) the indirect effects of individuals' individuals' trust toward donee organization on self acceptance on four paths i.e. emotional utility${\rightarrow}$trust${\rightarrow}$continuity of donation; demonstrable utility${\rightarrow}$trust${\rightarrow}$continuity of donation; emotional utility${\rightarrow}$trust${\rightarrow}$self-acceptance, and demonstrable utility${\rightarrow}$trust${\rightarrow}$self-acceptance; (6) the moderating effects of 'financial status' on the causal relationships in the prescribed structural equation model(SEM). In order to verify the moderating effect of 'financial status', multi-group analysis between each of the two groups were conducted. Research is based on a survey among 1116 donors who had made charitable, monetary contributions to social welfare organizations in Daegu and Kyungpook province. Data was collected from 29 organizations. In order to address the research questions, structural equation were employed. A variety of tests are conducted(metric invariance, critical ratio for difference, structural invariance, multi-group analysis, bias-corrected boot-strapping, latent mean analysis including Cohen's effect test).

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Long-term forecasting reference evapotranspiration using statistically predicted temperature information (통계적 기온예측정보를 활용한 기준증발산량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1243-1254
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    • 2021
  • For water resources operation or agricultural water management, it is important to accurately predict evapotranspiration for a long-term future over a seasonal or monthly basis. In this study, reference evapotranspiration forecast (up to 12 months in advance) was performed using statistically predicted monthly temperatures and temperature-based Hamon method for the Han River basin. First, the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 15 meterological stations in the basin were derived by spatial-temporal downscaling the monthly temperature forecasts. The results of goodness-of-fit test for the downscaled temperature data at each site showed that the percent bias (PBIAS) ranged from 1.3 to 6.9%, the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) ranged from 0.22 to 0.27, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ranged from 0.97 to 0.98 for the monthly average daily maximum temperature. And for the monthly average daily minimum temperature, PBIAS was 7.8 to 44.7%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.25, NSE was 0.94 to 0.96, and r was 0.98 to 0.99. The difference by site was not large, and the downscaled results were similar to the observations. In the results of comparing the forecasted reference evapotranspiration calculated using the downscaled data with the observed values for the entire region, PBIAS was 2.2 to 5.4%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.28, NSE was 0.92 to 0.96, and r was 0.96 to 0.98, indicating a very high fit. Due to the characteristics of the statistical models and uncertainty in the downscaling process, the predicted reference evapotranspiration may slightly deviate from the observed value in some periods when temperatures completely different from the past are observed. However, considering that it is a forecast result for the future period, it will be sufficiently useful as information for the evaluation or operation of water resources in the future.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.