• Title/Summary/Keyword: bayesian reliability

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A RSS-Based Localization for Multiple Modes using Bayesian Compressive Sensing with Path-Loss Estimation (전력 손실 지수 추정 기법과 베이지안 압축 센싱을 이용하는 수신신호 세기 기반의 위치 추정 기법)

  • Ahn, Tae-Joon;Koo, In-Soo
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2012
  • In Wireless Sensor Network(WSN)s, the detection of precise location of each node is essential for utilizing sensing data acquired from sensor nodes effectively. Among various location methods, the received signal strength(RSS) based localization scheme is mostly preferable in many applications because it can be easily implemented without any additional hardware cost. Since a RSS-based localization scheme is mainly affected by radio channel or obstacles such as building and mountain between two nodes, the localization error can be inevitable. To enhance the accuracy of localization in RSS-based localization scheme, a number of RSS measurements are needed, which results in the energy consumption. In this paper, a RSS based localization using Bayesian Compressive Sensing(BSS) with path-loss exponent estimation is proposed to improve the accuracy of localization in the energy-efficient way. In the propose scheme, we can increase the adaptative, reliability and accuracy of localization by estimating the path-loss exponents between nodes, and further we can enhance the energy efficiency by the compressive sensing. Through the simulation, it is shown that the proposed scheme can enhance the location accuracy of multiple unknown nodes with fewer RSS measurements and is robust against the channel variation.

An Interpretable Log Anomaly System Using Bayesian Probability and Closed Sequence Pattern Mining (베이지안 확률 및 폐쇄 순차패턴 마이닝 방식을 이용한 설명가능한 로그 이상탐지 시스템)

  • Yun, Jiyoung;Shin, Gun-Yoon;Kim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Sang-Soo;Han, Myung-Mook
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2021
  • With the development of the Internet and personal computers, various and complex attacks begin to emerge. As the attacks become more complex, signature-based detection become difficult. It leads to the research on behavior-based log anomaly detection. Recent work utilizes deep learning to learn the order and it shows good performance. Despite its good performance, it does not provide any explanation for prediction. The lack of explanation can occur difficulty of finding contamination of data or the vulnerability of the model itself. As a result, the users lose their reliability of the model. To address this problem, this work proposes an explainable log anomaly detection system. In this study, log parsing is the first to proceed. Afterward, sequential rules are extracted by Bayesian posterior probability. As a result, the "If condition then results, post-probability" type rule set is extracted. If the sample is matched to the ruleset, it is normal, otherwise, it is an anomaly. We utilize HDFS datasets for the experiment, resulting in F1score 92.7% in test dataset.

Probabilistic Calibration of Computer Model and Application to Reliability Analysis of Elasto-Plastic Insertion Problem (컴퓨터모델의 확률적 보정 및 탄소성 압착문제의 신뢰도분석 응용)

  • Yoo, Min Young;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.9
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    • pp.1133-1140
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    • 2013
  • A computer model is a useful tool that provides solution via physical modeling instead of expensive testing. In reality, however, it often does not agree with the experimental data owing to simplifying assumption and unknown or uncertain input parameters. In this study, a Bayesian approach is proposed to calibrate the computer model in a probabilistic manner using the measured data. The elasto-plastic analysis of a pyrotechnically actuated device (PAD) is employed to demonstrate this approach, which is a component that delivers high power in remote environments by the combustion of a self-contained energy source. A simple mathematical model that quickly evaluates the performance is developed. Unknown input parameters are calibrated conditional on the experimental data using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which is a modern computational statistics method. Finally, the results are applied to determine the reliability of the PAD.

SHM-based probabilistic representation of wind properties: statistical analysis and bivariate modeling

  • Ye, X.W.;Yuan, L.;Xi, P.S.;Liu, H.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.591-600
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    • 2018
  • The probabilistic characterization of wind field characteristics is a significant task for fatigue reliability assessment of long-span railway bridges in wind-prone regions. In consideration of the effect of wind direction, the stochastic properties of wind field should be represented by a bivariate statistical model of wind speed and direction. This paper presents the construction of the bivariate model of wind speed and direction at the site of a railway arch bridge by use of the long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) data. The wind characteristics are derived by analyzing the real-time wind monitoring data, such as the mean wind speed and direction, turbulence intensity, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method is proposed to formulate the joint distribution model of wind speed and direction. For the probability density function (PDF) of wind speed, a double-parameter Weibull distribution function is utilized, and a von Mises distribution function is applied to represent the PDF of wind direction. The SQP algorithm with multi-start points is used to estimate the parameters in the bivariate model, namely Weibull-von Mises mixture model. One-year wind monitoring data are selected to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method. The optimal model is jointly evaluated by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and coefficient of determination, $R^2$. The obtained results indicate that the proposed SQP algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method can effectively establish the bivariate model of wind speed and direction. The established bivariate model of wind speed and direction will facilitate the wind-induced fatigue reliability assessment of long-span bridges.

Human Error Probability Assessment During Maintenance Activities of Marine Systems

  • Islam, Rabiul;Khan, Faisal;Abbassi, Rouzbeh;Garaniya, Vikram
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.42-52
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    • 2018
  • Background: Maintenance operations on-board ships are highly demanding. Maintenance operations are intensive activities requiring high man-machine interactions in challenging and evolving conditions. The evolving conditions are weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress. For example, extreme weather condition affects seafarers' performance, increasing the chances of error, and, consequently, can cause injuries or fatalities to personnel. An effective human error probability model is required to better manage maintenance on-board ships. The developed model would assist in developing and maintaining effective risk management protocols. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a human error probability model considering various internal and external factors affecting seafarers' performance. Methods: The human error probability model is developed using probability theory applied to Bayesian network. The model is tested using the data received through the developed questionnaire survey of >200 experienced seafarers with >5 years of experience. The model developed in this study is used to find out the reliability of human performance on particular maintenance activities. Results: The developed methodology is tested on the maintenance of marine engine's cooling water pump for engine department and anchor windlass for deck department. In the considered case studies, human error probabilities are estimated in various scenarios and the results are compared between the scenarios and the different seafarer categories. The results of the case studies for both departments are also compared. Conclusion: The developed model is effective in assessing human error probabilities. These probabilities would get dynamically updated as and when new information is available on changes in either internal (i.e., training, experience, and fatigue) or external (i.e., environmental and operational conditions such as weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress) factors.

Reliability of microarray analysis for studying periodontitis: low consistency in 2 periodontitis cohort data sets from different platforms and an integrative meta-analysis

  • Jeon, Yoon-Seon;Shivakumar, Manu;Kim, Dokyoon;Kim, Chang-Sung;Lee, Jung-Seok
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.18-29
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to compare the characteristic expression patterns of advanced periodontitis in 2 cohort data sets analyzed using different microarray platforms, and to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) through a meta-analysis of both data sets. Methods: Twenty-two patients for cohort 1 and 40 patients for cohort 2 were recruited with the same inclusion criteria. The 2 cohort groups were analyzed using different platforms: Illumina and Agilent. A meta-analysis was performed to increase reliability by removing statistical differences between platforms. An integrative meta-analysis based on an empirical Bayesian methodology (ComBat) was conducted. DEGs for the integrated data sets were identified using the limma package to adjust for age, sex, and platform and compared with the results for cohorts 1 and 2. Clustering and pathway analyses were also performed. Results: This study detected 557 and 246 DEGs in cohorts 1 and 2, respectively, with 146 and 42 significantly enriched gene ontology (GO) terms. Overlapping between cohorts 1 and 2 was present in 59 DEGs and 18 GO terms. However, only 6 genes from the top 30 enriched DEGs overlapped, and there were no overlapping GO terms in the top 30 enriched pathways. The integrative meta-analysis detected 34 DEGs, of which 10 overlapped in all the integrated data sets of cohorts 1 and 2. Conclusions: The characteristic expression pattern differed between periodontitis and the healthy periodontium, but the consistency between the data sets from different cohorts and metadata was too low to suggest specific biomarkers for identifying periodontitis.

Reliability Analysis under Input Variable and Metamodel Uncertainty using Bayesian Approach (베이지안 접근법을 이용한 입력변수 및 근사모델 불확실성 하에서의 신뢰성 분석)

  • An, Da-Wn;Won, Jun-Ho;Choi, Joo-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.97-100
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    • 2009
  • 신뢰성 분석은 불확실성으로 인한 제품의 성능 변동을 안전확률이나 파괴확률로 정량화 하여 설계에 이용하기 위해 연구되어 왔다. 불확실성은, 데이터의 양에 따라-물질의 본질적인 특성으로서의 많은 데이터가 주어진 경우의 물리적 불확실성과 부족한 데이터에서의 인식론적 불확실성으로 구분되고, 불확실성을 갖는 대상에 따라-입력변수 및 근사모델 불확실성으로 구분된다. 물리적 불확실성에 대한 연구는 많이 진행되어 왔지만, 실제 산업현장에는 부족한 데이터로 인한 인식론적 불확실성이 지배적이며 이에 대한 연구는 최근에서야 진행되고 있다. 불확실성을 고려하는 신뢰성 기반 설계에는 효율성을 위해 실제모델을 대체하는 근사모델이 이용되는데, 근사모델법 자체에 대한 연구는 많이 진행되어 왔으나, 근사모델 이기 때문에 존재하는 불확실성을 고려한 연구는 최근에서야 연구되기 시작하였다. 본 연구에서는 베이지안 접근법에 기반하여 입력변수 및 근사모델 불확실성을 통합 고려하는 새로운 신뢰성 분석 기법을 제시하고 수치예제를 통해 타당성을 증명한 후, 이를 공학문제에 적용한다.

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Improved Exploration Algorithm Using Reliability Index of Thinning Based Topological Nodes

  • Kwon, Tae-Bum;Song, Jae-Bok;Lee, Soo-Yong
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.250-255
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    • 2005
  • For navigation of a service robot, mapping and localization are very important. To estimate the robot pose, the map of the environment is required and it can be built by exploration or SLAM. Exploration is the fundamental task of guiding a robot autonomously during mapping such that it covers the entire environment with its sensors. In this paper, an efficient exploration scheme based on the position probability of the end nodes of a topological map is proposed. In this scheme, a topological map is constructed in real time using the thinning-based approach. The robot then updates the position probability of each end node maintaining its position at the current location based on the Bayesian update rule using the range data. From this probability, the robot can determine whether or not it needs to visit the specific end node to examine the environment around this node. Various experiments show that the proposed exploration scheme can perform exploration more efficiently than other schemes in that, in most cases, exploration for the entire environment can be completed without directly visiting everywhere in the environment.

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Derivation of the Fisher information matrix for 3-parameters Weibull distribution using mathematica (매스매티카를 이용하여 3-모수를 갖는 와이블분포에 대한 피셔 정보행렬의 유도)

  • Yang, Ji-Eun;Baek, Hoh-Yoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2009
  • Fisher information matrix plays an important role in statistical inference of unknown parameters. Especially, it is used in objective Bayesian inference which derives to the posterior distribution using a noninformative prior distribution and is an example of metric functions in geometry. The more parameters for estimating in a distribution are, the more complicate derivation of the Fisher information matrix for the distribution is. In this paper, we derive to the Fisher information matrix for 3-parameters Weibull distribution which is used in reliability theory using Mathematica programs.

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Nonlinear damage detection using linear ARMA models with classification algorithms

  • Chen, Liujie;Yu, Ling;Fu, Jiyang;Ng, Ching-Tai
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 2020
  • Majority of the damage in engineering structures is nonlinear. Damage sensitive features (DSFs) extracted by traditional methods from linear time series models cannot effectively handle nonlinearity induced by structural damage. A new DSF is proposed based on vector space cosine similarity (VSCS), which combines K-means cluster analysis and Bayesian discrimination to detect nonlinear structural damage. A reference autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is built based on measured acceleration data. This study first considers an existing DSF, residual standard deviation (RSD). The DSF is further advanced using the VSCS, and then the advanced VSCS is classified using K-means cluster analysis and Bayes discriminant analysis, respectively. The performance of the proposed approach is then verified using experimental data from a three-story shear building structure, and compared with the results of existing RSD. It is demonstrated that combining the linear ARMA model and the advanced VSCS, with cluster analysis and Bayes discriminant analysis, respectively, is an effective approach for detection of nonlinear damage. This approach improves the reliability and accuracy of the nonlinear damage detection using the linear model and significantly reduces the computational cost. The results indicate that the proposed approach is potential to be a promising damage detection technique.