• 제목/요약/키워드: average model

검색결과 6,720건 처리시간 0.034초

Establishment of Accuracy Criteria of Flood Inundation Map Using Quantitative Evaluation Indices (정량적 평가 지표를 활용한 호우피해 예측지도의 정확도 판단기준 설정)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Kim, Dongkyun;Park, Kyung Woon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제39권3호
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    • pp.381-389
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    • 2019
  • It is important to estimate flood overflow because adverse weather phenomena are frequently occurring in recent years. In order to cope with such abnormal floods, it is essential to perform flood inundation simulations for constructing flood inundation maps as nonstructural countermeasures. However, there is no quantitative evaluation method and criterion for flood inundation prediction. In this study, the Receiver Operation Characteristics (ROC) and Lee Sallee Shape Index (LSSI) were employed to quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of flood inundation maps for 10 administrative districts. Comparing predicted inundation maps with actual inundation trace maps, the ROC score was 0.631 and the LSSI was 25.16 %. Using the ROC and the LSSI, we proposed an evaluation criterion for flood inundation map. The average score was set as an intermediate score and distributed into 5 intervals. The validity of the evaluation criterion was investigated by applying to the XP-SWMM model, which has been verified and corrected. The ROC analysis result was 0.8496 and the LSSI was 51.92 %. It is considered that the proposed evaluation criteria can be applied to flood inundation maps.

Experimental study of the air emission effect in the tangential and the multi-stage spiral inlet (접선식 유입구와 다단식 나선 유입구의 공기 배출 효과에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Seong, Hoje;Rhee, Dong Sop;Park, Inhwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제52권4호
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    • pp.235-243
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    • 2019
  • Recently, urban inundation was frequently occurred due to the intensive rainfall exceeding marginal capacity of the flood control facility. Furthermore, needs for the underground storage facilities to mitigate urban flood are increasing according to rapidly accelerating urbanization. Thus, in this study, drainage efficiency in drain tunnel connecting to underground storage was investigated from the air-core measurements in the drop shaft against two types of inlet structure. In case of the spiral inlet, the multi-stage structure is introduced at the bottom of the inlet to improve the vortex induction effect at low inflow discharge (multi-stage spiral inlet). The average cross-sectional area of the air-core in the multi-stage spiral inlet is 10% larger than the tangential inlet, and show the highly air emission effect and the highly inflow efficiency at the high inflow discharge. In case of the tangential inlets, the air emission effect decreased after exceeding the maximum inflow discharge, which is required to maintain the inherent performance of the tangential inlet. From the measurements, the empirical formula for the cross-sectional area of the air-core according to locations inside the drop shaft was proposed in order to provide the experimental data available for the inlet model used in experiments.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Pegfilgrastim and Pegteograstim in Patients with Breast Cancer using Doxorubicin and Cyclophosphamide (Doxorubicin과 Cyclophosphamide를 투여받는 유방암 환자에서 Pegfilgrastim과 Pegteograstim의 비용-효용 분석)

  • Kwon, Su Ji;Geum, Min Jung;Kim, Jae Song;Son, Eun Sun;Kwon, Kyeng Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Health-System Pharmacists
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    • 제35권4호
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    • pp.409-417
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    • 2018
  • Background : Febrile neutropenia (FN) is one of the side effects in the patients treated with chemotherapy, and the patients who have FN generally need immediate treatment with extended-spectrum antibiotics and hospitalization. Pegfilgrastim and pegteograstim, which are used for the prevention of FN as a granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), have been granted insurance coverage in the Republic of Korea for certain breast cancer patients using doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide (AC) from September 2016. Methods : The data of the patients with breast cancer using AC regimen and G-CSF were collected retrospectively. This study involves cost-utility analysis of pegfilgrastim and pegteograstim. In this study, we constructed a simple decision tree model for short-term observation and calculated quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and the direct medical costs from the medical provider's perspective. Results : From September 2016 to May 2017, 15 patients were treated with pegfilgrastim and 15 patients were treated with pegteograstim. As a result of dividing the average cost by QALY for each treatment group, it was observed that pegfilgrastim and pegteograstim were consumed 24,923,384 won and 22,808,336 won per 1QALY, respectively. Consequently, incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) showed 2,115,048 won more per pegfilgrastim than pegteograstim per 1QALY, and the cost per 1QALY of both the drugs was lower than 30,500,000 won; the Koreans were willing to pay this amount. Conclusions : This study suggests that pegfilgrastim and pegteograstim can be used to improve the quality of life of breast cancer patients undergoing AC therapy. Among the two drugs, pegteograstim seems to be more cost-effective. However, since this study was conducted as a retrospective observation method on a small scale, it is associated with many limitations. Therefore, a long-term prospective cohort study is needed to supplement the present findings.

Effects of the Characteristics of the JooTeakYeonKeum Contract on Its Termination (주택연금의 특성이 계약해지에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, You Jeong;Yoo, Seon Jong
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.115-130
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    • 2018
  • This study investigated the factors influencing the termination of the JooTeakYeonKeum contract according to its rate increase, and aimed to identify the differences in the factors affecting the cancellation of the contract according to the collateralized house price range. The results showed that the higher the cumulative increase rate of the mortgage housing price at the time of subscription is, the higher the monthly payment, the larger the gap between the monthly payment and the minimal living expenses for aging, the lower the net population moving rate in the previous month, and the lower the cumulative mortgage. Moreover, the JooTeakYeonKeum contract is terminated. The factors affecting the termination of the contract are different in each interval of the price range of the mortgage housing. To confirm this, a mortgage price range model was constructed and analyzed. The results showed that 60% of the elderly participants in the JooTeakYeonKeum program subscribed thereto with a below-average subsidized housing price. It was confirmed that the factors affecting the termination of the contract differ by price range. Lowering the risk of increasing the JooTeakYeonKeum termination rate will be a significant way of boosting the welfare of elderly people aged 65 and older, and of easing the impact of population aging.

Estimation of drift force by real ship using multiple regression analysis (다중회귀분석에 의한 실선의 표류력 추정)

  • AHN, Jang-Young;KIM, Kwang-il;KIM, Min-Son;LEE, Chang-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • 제57권3호
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    • pp.236-245
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a drifting test using a experimental vessel (2,966 tons) in the northern waters of Jeju was carried out for the first time in order to obtain the fundamental data for drift. During the test, it was shown that the average leeway speed and direction by GPS position were 0.362 m/s and 155.54° respectively and the leeway rate for wind speed was 8.80%. The analysis of linear regression modes about leeway speed and direction of the experimental vessel indicated that wind or current (i.e. explanatory variable) had a greater influence upon response variable (e.g. leeway speed or direction) with the speed of the wind and current rather than their directions. On the other hand, the result of multiple regression model analysis was able to predict that the direction was negative, and it was demonstrated that predicted values of leeway speed and direction using an experimental vessel is to be more influential by current than wind while the leeway speed through variance and covariance was positive. In terms of the leeway direction of the experimental vessel, the same result of the leeway speed appeared except for a possibility of the existence of multi-collinearity. Then, it can be interpreted that the explanatory variables were less descriptive in the predicted values of the leeway direction. As a result, the prediction of leeway speed and direction can be demonstrated as following equations. Ŷ1= 0.4031-0.0032X1+0.0631X2-0.0010X3+0.4110X4 Ŷ2= 0.4031-0.6662X1+27.1955X2-0.6787X3-420.4833X4 However, many drift tests using actual vessels and various drifting objects will provide reasonable estimations, so that they can help search and rescue fishing gears as well.

Social Psychological Characteristics of Juvenile Offenders (소년범죄자의 사회심리적 성격특성)

  • Koh, Jae-Won
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • 제21권10호
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    • pp.702-711
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    • 2021
  • In order to examine the type of PAI profile for criminally charged juvenile offenders, the study sought to find out personality types and behavioral characteristics of 251 juvenile offenders and 173 ordinary adolescents from 2018-2020. Looking at the overall profiles of juvenile offenders and ordinary adolescents, we found differences in Infrequency(INF), Mania(MAN), Antisocial Features(ANT), Alcohol problems(ALC), Drug problems(DRG), Aggression (AGG), and Dominance(DOM) and Warmth(WRM). Based on these results, we perform clustering as factors Antisocial features(ANT), Aggression(AGG), and Dominance (DOM) with an average difference of more than five points. It was classified as Cluster 1 with a high percentage of adolescents and Cluster 2 with a high percentage of juvenile offenders, and Cluster 1 was named as a defense group because it showed a similar model to the profile of ordinary adolescents. The profile type of cluster 2 was named externalization, which can be represented as an externalization group. The results were similar to previous studies, and the profile type of juvenile offenders has higher overall clinical scale than that of ordinary adolescents, indicating behavioral problems. Continued research on juvenile offenders could lead to understanding of youth as well as juvenile offenders.

Effects of Entrepreneurship, Social Support and Entrepreneurial Mentoring on Entrepreneurial Intention (기업가정신, 사회적 지지 및 창업 멘토링이 창업의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Hahn, Mie Kyoung;Ha, Kyu Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • 제21권10호
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    • pp.444-456
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    • 2021
  • Economic abundance and the development of medical technology led to an aging society with an average life expectancy of 100 years, but retiring from the labor market at the age of 65 has become more difficult. This study aims to identify the influence of entrepreneurship, social support, and entrepreneurship mentoring as an effective support method to increase the entrepreneurial intention in order to enhance the entrepreneurial intention as an adult's second career development. In this study, data were collected using questionnaires from 340 adults, but only 319 were selected because 21 were judged to be inappropriate. For statistical analysis, SPSS 18.0 was used, and reliability test, factor analysis, and multiple regression analysis were used for hypothesis testing. The research results are as follows. First, as a result of examining the effects of adult entrepreneurship factors on entrepreneurship, it was found that among entrepreneurship, innovation and initiative had a significant positive (+) effect on entrepreneurship. Second, as a result of examining the effect of social support on entrepreneurial intention, it was found that family support had a significant negative (-) effect on entrepreneurial intention. Third, as a result of examining the effect of entrepreneurship mentoring on entrepreneurial intentions, it was found that role models and mentors had a positive (+) effect on entrepreneurial intentions. Fourth, as for the mediating effect of entrepreneurial efficacy, there were significant mediating effects of innovativeness → entrepreneurial efficacy → entrepreneurial intention, role model → entrepreneurial efficacy → entrepreneurial intention, mentor → entrepreneurial efficacy → entrepreneurial intention.

In-feed organic and inorganic manganese supplementation on broiler performance and physiological responses

  • de Carvalho, Bruno Reis;Ferreira Junior, Helvio da Cruz;Viana, Gabriel da Silva;Alves, Warley Junior;Muniz, Jorge Cunha Lima;Rostagno, Horacio Santiago;Pettigrew, James Eugene;Hannas, Melissa Izabel
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • 제34권11호
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    • pp.1811-1821
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    • 2021
  • Objective: A trial was conducted to investigate the effects of supplemental levels of Mn provided by organic and inorganic trace mineral supplements on growth, tissue mineralization, mineral balance, and antioxidant status of growing broiler chicks. Methods: A total of 500 male chicks (8-d-old) were used in 10-day feeding trial, with 10 treatments and 10 replicates of 5 chicks per treatment. A 2×5 factorial design was used where supplemental Mn levels (0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 mg Mn/kg diet) were provided as MnSO4·H2O or MnPro. When Mn was supplied as MnPro, supplements of zinc, copper, iron, and selenium were supplied as organic minerals, whereas in MnSO4·H2O supplemented diets, inorganic salts were used as sources of other trace minerals. Performance data were fitted to a linearbroken line regression model to estimate the optimal supplemental Mn levels. Results: Manganese supplementation improved body weight, average daily gain (ADG) and feed conversion ratio (FCR) compared with chicks fed diets not supplemented with Mn. Manganese in liver, breast muscle, and tibia were greatest at 50, 75, and 100 mg supplemental Mn/kg diet, respectively. Higher activities of glutathione peroxidase and superoxide dismutase (total-SOD) were found in both liver and breast muscle of chicks fed diets supplemented with inorganic minerals. In chicks fed MnSO4·H2O, ADG, FCR, Mn balance, and concentration in liver were optimized at 59.8, 74.3, 20.6, and 43.1 mg supplemental Mn/kg diet, respectively. In MnPro fed chicks, ADG, FCR, Mn balance, and concentration in liver and breast were optimized at 20.6, 38.0, 16.6, 33.5, and 62.3 mg supplemental Mn/kg, respectively. Conclusion: Lower levels of organic Mn were required by growing chicks for performance optimization compared to inorganic Mn. Based on the FCR, the ideal supplemental levels of organic and inorganic Mn in chick feeds were 38.0 and 74.3 mg Mn/kg diet, respectively.

Dynamic Analysis on Electricity Demands for the Steel Industry in Korea: Comparison between SMEs and Large Firms (우리나라 철강산업의 전력수요에 대한 동태 분석: 중소기업과 대기업 간 비교)

  • Li, Dmitriy;Bae, Jeong Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.499-520
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    • 2020
  • Input ratio of electricity to other production inputs in the Korean manufacturing sector has been higher than for the other OECD countries. In addition, electricity prices in Korea has been relatively lower than the average of OECD countries. Moreover, electricity sector is responsible for most CO2 emissions in Korea as coal and natural gas account 41.9% and 26.8% of electricity production as of 2018. Therefore, it looks inevitable to raise the electricity tariff for the manufacturing sector in Korea, but there is a concern that increase in the electricity tariff might affect small and medium enterprises (SMEs) more than large firms. This study estimates electricity demand's price and output elasticities for large firms and SMEs in steel industry by employing a time varying parameter model (Kalman filter). The analysis shows that changes in output levels regardless of firms' size affect electricity demands more significantly than do changes in electricity prices. Second, large firms have higher variances for both price and output elasticities of electricity demand. Third, large firms have higher price elasticity but lower output elasticity of electricity demand relative to SMEs. Policy implications are suggested in association with how to reduce electricity demands in the energy-intensive industry.

Estimation of Shared Bicycle Demand Using the SARIMAX Model: Focusing on the COVID-19 Impact of Seoul (SARIMAX 모형을 이용한 공공자전거 수요추정과 평가: 서울시의 COVID-19 영향을 중심으로)

  • Hong, Jungyeol;Han, Eunryong;Choi, Changho;Lee, Minseo;Park, Dongjoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzed how external variables, such as the supply policy of shared bicycles and the spread of infectious diseases, affect the demand for shared bicycle use in the COVID-19 era. In addition, this paper presents a methodology for more accurate predictions. The Seasonal Auto-Regulatory Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous stressors methodology was applied to capture the effects of exogenous variables on existing time series models. The exogenous variables that affected the future demand for shared bicycles, such as COVID-19 and the supply of public bicycles, were statistically significant. As a result, from the supply volume and COVID-19 outbreak according to the scenario, it was estimated that approximately 46,000 shared bicycles would be supplied by 2022, and the COVID-19 cases would continue to be at the current level. In addition, approximately 32 million and 45 million units per year will be needed in 2021 and 2024, respectively.