• Title/Summary/Keyword: autoregressive error model

Search Result 161, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

The Effect of R&D Investment on Local Economies Using Dynamic Panel Estimator in Korea (동태적 Panel 분석을 통한 R&D투자의 지역효과 분석)

  • Yang, Ji-Chung
    • International Area Studies Review
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.175-201
    • /
    • 2014
  • This paper analyses the effect of R&D investment on local economies. R&D investment contributes to the regional local economy by increasing employment and production activity of the investees. The investees may end up with increased productivity, sales and employment. At the regional R&D level, the central government R&D fund and firm self R&D budget will be the source of R&D investment. Further positive effects are inter-related with local industries. This study carried out an empirical analysis on the effect of R&D investment on local economies using Korean panel data after comparing international literatures. The dynamic panel estimator is used to estimate an autoregressive model with lagged dependent variable. Using the Da Silva method, mixed variance-component moving-average error process is estimated and selected. R&D investment is very important factor to improve the productivity of a region and the size of the effect is dependent on the time periods within the Korean economic history.

Muscle Fatigue Assessment using Hilbert-Huang Transform and an Autoregressive Model during Repetitive Maximum Isokinetic Knee Extensions (슬관절의 등속성 최대 반복 신전시 Hilbert-Huang 변환과 AR 모델을 이용한 근피로 평가)

  • Kim, H.S.;Choi, S.W.;Yun, A.R.;Lee, S.E.;Shin, K.Y.;Choi, J.I.;Mun, J.H.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.127-132
    • /
    • 2009
  • In the working population, muscle fatigue and musculoskeletal discomfort are common, which, in the case of insufficient recovery may lead to musculoskeletal pain. Workers suffering from musculoskeletal pains need to be rehabilitated for recovery. Isokinetic testing has been used in physical strengthening, rehabilitation and post-operative orthopedic surgery. Frequency analysis of electromyography (EMG) signals using the mean frequency (MNF) has been widely used to characterize muscle fatigue. During isokinetic contractions, EMG signals present strong nonstationarities. Hilbert-Haung transform (HHT) and autoregressive (AR) model have been known more suitable than Fourier or wavelet transform for nonstationary signals. Moreover, several analyses have been performed within each active phase during isokinetic contractions. Thus, the aims of this study were i) to determine which one was better suitable for the analysis of MNF between HHT and AR model during repetitive maximum isokinetic extensions and ii) to investigate whether the analysis could be repeated for sequential fixed epoch lengths. Seven healthy volunteers (five males and two females) performed isokinetic knee extensions at $60^{\circ}/s$ and $240^{\circ}/s$ until 50% of the maximum peak torque was reached. Surface EMG signals were recorded from the rectus femoris of the right thigh. An algorithm detecting the onset and offset of EMG signals was applied to extract each active phase of the muscle. Following the results, slopes from the least-square error linear regression of MNF values showed that muscle fatigue of all subjects occurred. The AR model is better suited than HHT for estimating MNF from nonstationary EMG signals during isokinetic knee extensions. Moreover, the linear regression can be extracted from MNF values calculated by sequential fixed epoch lengths (p> 0.0I).

A Study on Scale Effects of the MAUP According to the Degree of Spatial Autocorrelation - Focused on LBSNS Data - (공간적 자기상관성의 정도에 따른 MAUP에서의 스케일 효과 연구 - LBSNS 데이터를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Young Min;Kwon, Pil;Yu, Ki Yun;Huh, Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.25-33
    • /
    • 2016
  • In order to visualize point based Location-Based Social Network Services(LBSNS) data on multi-scaled tile map effectively, it is necessary to apply tile-based clustering method. Then determinating reasonable numbers and size of tiles is required. However, there is no such criteria and the numbers and size of tiles are modified based on data type and the purpose of analysis. In other words, researchers' subjectivity is always involved in this type of study. This is when Modifiable Areal Unit Problem(MAUP) occurs, that affects the results of analysis. Among LBSNS, geotagged Twitter data were chosen to find the influence of MAUP in scale effects perspective. For this purpose, the degree of spatial autocorrelation using spatial error model was altered, and change of distributions was analyzed using Morna's I. As a result, positive spatial autocorrelation showed in the original data and the spatial autocorrelation was decreased as the value of spatial autoregressive coefficient was increasing. Therefore, the intensity of the spatial autocorrelation of Twitter data was adjusted to five levels, and for each level, nine different size of grid was created. For each level and different grid sizes, Moran's I was calculated. It was found that the spatial autocorrelation was increased when the aggregation level was being increased and decreased in a certainpoint. Another tendency was found that the scale effect of MAUP was decreased when the spatial autocorrelation was high.

Stock Market Forecasting : Comparison between Artificial Neural Networks and Arch Models

  • Merh, Nitin
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-12
    • /
    • 2012
  • Data mining is the process of searching and analyzing large quantities of data for finding out meaningful patterns and rules. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the tools of data mining which is becoming very popular in forecasting the future values. Some of the areas where it is used are banking, medicine, retailing and fraud detection. In finance, artificial neural network is used in various disciplines including stock market forecasting. In the stock market time series, due to high volatility, it is very important to choose a model which reads volatility and forecasts the future values considering volatility as one of the major attributes for forecasting. In this paper, an attempt is made to develop two models - one using feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network and the other using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) technique for forecasting stock market returns. Various parameters which are considered for the design of optimal ANN model development are input and output data normalization, transfer function and neuron/s at input, hidden and output layers, number of hidden layers, values with respect to momentum, learning rate and error tolerance. Simulations have been done using prices of daily close of Sensex. Stock market returns are chosen as input data and output is the forecasted return. Simulations of the Model have been done using MATLAB$^{(R)}$ 6.1.0.450 and EViews 4.1. Convergence and performance of models have been evaluated on the basis of the simulation results. Performance evaluation is done on the basis of the errors calculated between the actual and predicted values.

Image Registration of Aerial Image Sequences (연속 항공영상에서의 Image Registration)

  • 강민석;김준식;박래홍;이쾌희
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
    • /
    • v.29B no.4
    • /
    • pp.48-57
    • /
    • 1992
  • This paper addresses the estimation of the shift vector from aerial image sequences. The conventional feature-based and area-based matching methods are simulated for determining the suitable image registration scheme. Computer simulations show that the feature-based matching schemes based on the co-occurrence matrix, autoregressive model, and edge information do not give a reliable matching for aerial image sequences which do not have a suitable statistical model or significant features. In area-based matching methods we try various similarity functions for a matching measure and discuss the factors determining the matching accuracy. To reduce the estimation error of the shift vector we propose the reference window selection scheme. We also discuss the performance of the proposed algorithm based on the simulation results.

  • PDF

Impact of Malaysia's Capital Market and Determinants on Economic Growth

  • Ali, Md. Arphan;Fei, Yap Su
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.3 no.2
    • /
    • pp.5-11
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study investigates the impact of Malaysia's capital market and other key determinants on Economic Growth from the period of 1988 to 2012. The key determinants studied are foreign direct investment and real interest rate. This study also examines the long run and short run relationship between the economic growth and capital market, foreign direct investment, and real interest rate by using bound testing cointegration of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) version of ARDL model. The empirical results of the study suggest that there is long- run cointegration among the capital market, foreign direct investment, real Interest rate and economic growth. The result also suggests that capital market and real interest rate have positive impact on economic growth in the short run and long run. Foreign direct investment does not show positive impact on economic growth in the short run but it does in the long run.

The Nexus among Globalization, ICT and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis

  • Liu, Ximei;Latif, Zahid;Xiong, Daoqi;Yang, Mengke;Latif, Shahid;Wara, Kaif Ul
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
    • /
    • v.17 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1044-1056
    • /
    • 2021
  • Globalization has integrated the world through interaction among countries and people with the help of information and telecommunication technology (ICT). The rapid mode of globalization has put a new life in ICT and economic sector. The key focus of this study is to examine the nexus among the globalization, ICT and economic growth. This study uses autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), vector error correction model (VECM) and econometric method spanning from 1990 to 2015. The empirical result highlights that the globalization stimulates economic growth of a country. In addition, both the internet penetration and the mobile phone usage contribute to the economic growth. Lastly, this article contributes important policy lessons on strengthening the economy by utilizing ICT with the rapid globalization.

Estimating the Nature of Relationship of Entrepreneurship and Business Confidence on Youth Unemployment in the Philippines

  • CAMBA, Aileen L.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.8
    • /
    • pp.533-542
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study estimates the nature of the relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment in the Philippines over the 2001-2017 period. The paper employed a range of cointegrating regression models, namely, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models, dynamic OLS, fully modified OLS, and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) estimation techniques. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) was also performed to determine the causal link of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The ARDL bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models confirmed the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The long-run coefficients from JJ and dynamic OLS show significant long-run and positive relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. While results of the long-run coefficients from fully modified OLS and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) found that only entrepreneurship has significant and positive relationship with youth unemployment in the long-run. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) estimates show evidence of long-run causal relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. In the short-run, increases in entrepreneurship and business confidence causes youth unemployment to decrease.

Nonlinear Autoregressive Modeling of Southern Oscillation Index (비선형 자기회귀모형을 이용한 남방진동지수 시계열 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.39 no.12 s.173
    • /
    • pp.997-1012
    • /
    • 2006
  • We have presented a nonparametric stochastic approach for the SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) series that used nonlinear methodology called Nonlinear AutoRegressive(NAR) based on conditional kernel density function and CAFPE(Corrected Asymptotic Final Prediction Error) lag selection. The fitted linear AR model represents heteroscedasticity, and besides, a BDS(Brock - Dechert - Sheinkman) statistics is rejected. Hence, we applied NAR model to the SOI series. We can identify the lags 1, 2 and 4 are appropriate one, and estimated conditional mean function. There is no autocorrelation of residuals in the Portmanteau Test. However, the null hypothesis of normality and no heteroscedasticity is rejected in the Jarque-Bera Test and ARCH-LM Test, respectively. Moreover, the lag selection for conditional standard deviation function with CAFPE provides lags 3, 8 and 9. As the results of conditional standard deviation analysis, all I.I.D assumptions of the residuals are accepted. Particularly, the BDS statistics is accepted at the 95% and 99% significance level. Finally, we split the SOI set into a sample for estimating themodel and a sample for out-of-sample prediction, that is, we conduct the one-step ahead forecasts for the last 97 values (15%). The NAR model shows a MSEP of 0.5464 that is 7% lower than those of the linear model. Hence, the relevance of the NAR model may be proved in these results, and the nonparametric NAR model is encouraging rather than a linear one to reflect the nonlinearity of SOI series.

Analysis of Container Shipping Market Using Multivariate Time Series Models (다변량 시계열 모형을 이용한 컨테이너선 시장 분석)

  • Ko, Byoung-Wook;Kim, Dae-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.61-72
    • /
    • 2019
  • In order to enhance the competitiveness of the container shipping industry and promote its development, based on the empirical analyses using multivariate time series models, this study aims to suggest a few strategies related to the dynamics of the container shipping market. It uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models as analytical methodologies. Additionally, it uses the annual trade volumes, fleets, and freight rates as the dataset. According to the empirical results, we can infer that the most exogenous variable, the trade volume, exerted the highest influence on the total dynamics of the container shipping market. Based on these empirical results, this study suggests some implications for ship investment, freight rate forecasting, and the strategies of shipping firms. Concerning ship investment, since the exogenous trade volume variable contributes most to the uncertainty of freight rates, corporate finance can be considered more appropriate for container ship investment than project finance. Concerning the freight rate forecasting, the VAR and VEC models use the past information and the cointegrating regression model assumes future information, and hence the former models are found better than the latter model. Finally, concerning the strategies of shipping firms, this study recommends the use of cycle-linked repayment scheme and services contract.