• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.95-104
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• 2020

In financial economics studies, the autoregressive model has been a workhorse for a long time. However, the model has a fixed value on every parameter and requires the stationarity assumptions. Time-varying coefficient autoregressive model that we use in this paper offers some desirable benefits over the traditional model such as the parameters are allowed to be varied over-time and can be applies to non-stationary financial data. This paper provides the Monte Carlo simulation studies which show that the model can capture the dynamic movement of parameters very well, even though, there are some sudden changes or jumps. For the daily data from January 1, 2015 to February 12, 2020, our paper provides the empirical studies that Thailand, Taiwan and Tokyo Stock market Index can be explained very well by the time-varying coefficient autoregressive model with lag order one while South Korea's stock index can be explained by the model with lag order three. We show that the model can unveil the non-linear shape of the estimated mean. We employ GJR-GARCH in the condition variance equation and found the evidences that the negative shocks have more impact on market's volatility than the positive shock in the case of South Korea and Tokyo.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.93-107
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• 2015

This study aims to analyze causalities among Hairtail prices by distribution channel using a vector autoregressive model. This study applies unit-root test for stability of data, uses Granger causality test to know interaction among Hairtail Prices by distribution channel, and employes the vector autoregressive model to estimate statistical impacts among t-2 period variables used in model. Analyzing results of this study are as follows. First, ADF, PP, and KPSS tests show that the change rate of Hairtail price by distribution channel differentiated by logarithm is stable. Second, a Granger causality test presents that the producer price of Hairtail leads the wholesale price and then the wholesale price leads the consumer price. Third, the vector autoregressive model suggests that the change rate of Hairtail producer price of t-2 period variables statistically, significantly impacts change rates of own, wholesale, and consumer prices at current period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of the structural shocks with a respectively distribution channel of the Hairtail prices are relatively more powerful in own distribution channel than in other distribution channels. Fifth, a forecast error variance decomposition of the Hairtail prices points out that the own price has relatively more powerful influence than other prices.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.1017-1030
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• 2016

This study focuses on the system identification of reinforced concrete bridges using vector autoregressive model (VAR). First, the time series output response from a bridge establishes the autoregressive (AR) models. AR models are one of the most accurate methods for stationary time series. Burg's algorithm estimates the autoregressive coefficients (ARCs) at p-lag by reducing the sum of the forward and the backward errors. The computed ARCs are assembled in the state system matrix and the eigen-system realization algorithm (ERA) computes: the eigenvector matrix that contains the vectors of the mode shapes, and the eigenvalue matrix that contains the associated natural frequencies. By taking advantage of the characteristic of the AR model with ERA (ARMERA), civil engineering can address problems related to damage detection. Operational modal analysis using ARMERA is applied to three experiments. One experiment is coupled with an artificial neural network algorithm and it can detect damage locations and extension. The neural network uses a specific number of ARCs as input and multiple submatrix scaling factors of the structural stiffness matrix as output to represent the damage.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.627-637
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• 2005

Small area estimation has been studied using various methods such as direct, indirect, synthetic and based on regression or time series model . In this paper we investigate a motel-based small area estimation which takes into account the spare time autoregressive model. The Economic Active Population Surveys in 2001 are used for analysis and the results from space-time autoregressive(STAR) and simultaneous autoregressive(SAR) model are compared with using MSE, MAE and MB.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.153-160
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• 2019

This study aims to analyze the mutual influences between adolescents' multicultural acceptability and school adjustment. Research problems for research are as follows. First, is multicultural acceptability and school adjustment stable over time? Second, what is the longitudinal impact of school adjustment on multicultural acceptability over time? Third, what is the longitudinal impact of multicultural acceptability on school adjustment over time? The results of analyzing the research problems by applying the autoregressive cross-lagged model are as follows. First, the autoregressive model of school adjustment has a significant effect on the future time point and is stable over time. Second, the autoregressive model of multicultural acceptability have a significant effect on the future time point and is stable over time. Third, cross-lagged effect from school adjustment to multicultural acceptability has a statistically significant effect on the multicultural acceptability at a later time, and is stable over time. Fourth, cross-lagged effect from multicultural acceptability to school adjustment was not statistically significant at the time of multicultural acceptability, and there was no change with time. This study is meaningful to provide the theoretical and practical implications by verifying the influence of the three - year term data over time.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.259-269
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• 1993

A moving average model, LMA(q) and an autoregressive-moving average model, NLARMA(p, q), with Laplacian marginal distribution are constructed and their properties are discussed; Their autocorrelation structures are completely analogus to those of Gaussian process and they are partially time reversible in the third order moments. Finally, we study the mixing property of NLARMA process.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.557-573
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• 2015

In this paper we develop a Bayesian inference for a multiplicative double seasonal autoregressive (DSAR) model by implementing a fast, easy and accurate Gibbs sampling algorithm. We apply the Gibbs sampling to approximate empirically the marginal posterior distributions after showing that the conditional posterior distribution of the model parameters and the variance are multivariate normal and inverse gamma, respectively. The proposed Bayesian methodology is illustrated using simulated examples and real-world time series data.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.191-197
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• 2003

This paper considers the independence test for two stationary infinite order autoregressive processes. For a test, we follow the empirical process method devised by Hoeffding (1948) and Blum, Kiefer and Rosenblatt (1961), and construct the Cram${\acute{e}}$r-von Mises type test statistics based on the least squares residuals. It is shown that the proposed test statistics behave asymptotically the same as those based on true errors.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.521-530
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• 1997

The new Laplace autoregressive model of order 2-NLAR92) studied by Dewald and Lewis (1985) is extended to the p-th order model-NLAR(p). A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an innovation sequence and a stationary ergodic NLAR(p) model is obtained. It is shown that the distribution of the innovation sequence is given by the probabilistic mixture of independent Laplace distributions and a degenrate distribution.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.317-333
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• 1998

In this study, I employed the autoregressive model and the geometric Brownian motion model to analyze the recent stock prices of Korea. For all 7 series of stock prices(or index) the geometric Brownian motion model gives better predicted values compared with the autoregressive model when we use smaller number of observations.