• 천문학회보
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.75.2-75.2
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• 2014

We have developed a set of daily solar flare peak flux forecast models using the multiple linear regression (MLR), the auto regression (AR), and artificial neural network (ANN) methods. We consider input parameters as solar activity data from January 1996 to December 2013 such as sunspot area, X-ray flare peak flux, weighted total flux $T_F=1{\times}F_C+10{\times}F_M+100{\times}F_X$ of previous day, mean flare rates of a given McIntosh sunspot group (Zpc), and a Mount Wilson magnetic classification. We compute the hitting rate that is defined as the fraction of the events whose absolute differences between the observed and predicted flare fluxes in a logarithm scale are ${\leq}$ 0.5. The best three parameters related to the observed flare peak flux are as follows: weighted total flare flux of previous day (r=0.5), Mount Wilson magnetic classification (r=0.33), and McIntosh sunspot group (r=0.3). The hitting rates of flares stronger than the M5 class, which is regarded to be significant for space weather forecast, are as follows: 30% for the auto regression method and 69% for the neural network method.

• 천문학회보
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.41.2-41.2
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• 2014

Hierarchical merging scenario indicates that galaxies go through major and minor merger events during their formation and evolution. As a result of the merging, substructural features of remnants such as stellar stream are shown around a current galaxy system. To find evidence of stellar substructures on M31 system, we used the near-infrared images of JHK filters obtained from the Wide Field Camera (WFCAM) at UKIRT 3.8m. A total sky coverage is an area of about$ 4.5^{\circ}{\times}6^{\circ}$ around M31. Indeed, M31 system which consists of several satellite systems contains stellar substructures such as giant stellar stream, loops, and spurs. By analysing stellar populations on the near-infrared color-magnitude diagrams, we selected member star candidates of each stellar substructure, from which we map out spatial distribution of stars in the vicinity of M31 system. Here, we present spatial density distribution maps of stars on each substructure over the entire field of M31 system. Also, we discuss the possible origin of the substructures and the implications on the galaxy assembly process.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.34.2-34.2
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• 2013

Spin distribution of dark matter halos in a cosmological N-body simulation is well fitted by a log-normal distribution, but the origin of the log-normal like shape is still unknown. To understand the evolution of spin and the origin of spin distribution, we have studied the change of the angular momentum of simulated halos through their merging histories. First, we traced merging histories of the dark matter halos and measured the probability distribution of the angular momentum changes from a series of simulations. We were able to fit the angular momentum changes with the Gaussian distribution in spaces of M, spin, ${\Delta}M$. Using the simulated merging trees and the distribution of angular momentum changes during the merging events, we can recover the spin distribution of halos over the various mass scales.

• 천문학회지
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.59-64
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• 2016

In this study, we investigate the kinetic properties of magnetic decreases observed in the solar wind at ~1 AU using the Cluster observations. We study two different magnetic decreases: one with a short observation duration of ~2.5 minutes and stable structure and the other with a longer observation duration of ~40 minutes and some fluctuations and substructures. Despite the contrast in durations and magnetic structures, the velocity space distributions of ions are similar in both events. The velocity space distribution becomes more anisotropic along the direction parallel to the magnetic field, which differs from observations obtained at high heliographic latitudes. On the other hand, electrons show different features from the ions. The core component of the electrons shows similar anisotropy to the ions, though the anisotropy is much weaker. However, while ions are heated in the magnetic decreases, the core electrons are slightly cooled, especially in the perpendicular direction. The halo component does not change much in the magnetic decreases from the ambient solar wind. The strahl component is observed only in one of the magnetic decreases. The results imply that the ions and electrons in the magnetic decreases can behave differently, which should be considered for the formation mechanism of the magnetic decreases.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.77.1-77.1
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• 2016

We investigate the properties and detection conditions for the planetary caustic perturbation of close-separation planets. To find the properties of the planetary caustic perturbation, we construct deviation maps by subtracting the single-lensing magnification of the lens star from the planetary lensing magnification for various lensing parameters. We find that each deviation area of the positive and negative perturbations disappears at the same normalized source radius according to a given deviation threshold regardless of mass ratio but disappears at a different normalized source radius according to the separation. We also estimate the upper limit of the normalized source radius to detect the planetary caustic perturbation. We find simple relations between the upper limit of the normalized source radius and the lensing parameters. From the relations, we obtain an analytic condition for the detection limit of the planet, and which show that we can sufficiently discover a planet with the mass of sub-Earth for typical microlensing events. Therefore, we expect to add the number of low-mass planets in the next-generation microlensing experiments and conclude that our detection condition of the planet can be used as a important criteria for maximal planet detections considering the source type and the photometric accuracy.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.45.2-45.2
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• 2016

In this study we investigate 195 spacecraft anomalies from 1998 to 2010 from Satellite News Digest (SND). We classify these data according to types of anomaly : Control, Power, Telemetry etc. We examine the association between these anomaly data and daily peak particle (electron and proton) flux data from GOES as well as their occurrence rates. To determine the association, we use two criteria that electron criterion is >10,000 pfu and proton criterion is >100 pfu. Main results from this study are as flows. First, the number of days satisfying the criteria for electron flux has a peak near a week before the anomaly day and decreases from the peak day to the anomaly day, while that for proton flux has a peak near the anomaly day. Second, we found a similar pattern for the mean daily peak particle (electron and proton) flux as a function of day before the anomaly day. Third, an examination of multiple spacecraft anomaly events, which are likely to occur by severe space weather effects, shows that anomalies mostly occur either when electron fluxes are in the declining stage, or when daily proton peak fluxes are strongly enhanced. This result is very consistent with the above statistical studies. Our results will be discussed in view of the origins of spacecraft anomaly.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.44.3-45
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• 2016

In this study, we identify 307 the geosynchronous magnetopause crossing (GMC) using geosynchronous satellite observation data from 1996 to 2010 as well as make an observational test of magnetopause location models using the identified events. For this, we consider three models: Petrinec and Russell (1996), Shue et al. (1998), and Lin et al. (2010). To evaluate the models, we estimate a Probability of Detection (PoD) and a Critical Success Index (CSI) as a function of year. To examine the effect of solar cycle phase, we consider three different time periods: (1) ascending phase (1996-1999), (2) maximum phase (2000-2002), and (3) descending phase (2003-2008). Major results from this study are as follows. First, the PoD values of all models range from 0.6 to 1.0 for the most of years. Second, the PoD values of Lin et al. (2010) are noticeably higher than those of the other models. Third, the CSI values of all models range from 0.3 to 0.6 and those of Shue et al. (1998) are slightly higher than those of the other models. Fourth, the predicted magnetopause radius based on Lin et al.(2010) well match the observed one within one earth radius, while that on Shue et al. (1998) overestimate the observed one by about 2 earth radii. Fifth, the PoD and CSI values of all the models are better for the solar maximum phase than those for the other phases, implying that the models are more optimized for the phase.

• 천문학논총
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.429-432
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• 2015

We present a kinematic study of the parsec-scale radio jet in OJ 287, one of the most studied BL Lac objects, during ${\gamma}$-ray flares, to explore the relation between parsec-scale radio jet activity and ${\gamma}$-ray emission. The 22-GHz light curve of OJ 287 show three obvious flare events around 2011 May, 2011 October, and 2012 March. The second radio flare occurred during the ${\gamma}$-ray flaring period, and the third radio flare seemed to precede the ${\gamma}$-ray flare by one month. One jet component moved outward with respect to the core component with an apparent superluminal speed (~ 11c) from 2010 November to 2011 November. Then it changed direction, moving apparently inward in 2011 November, when the ${\gamma}$-ray flare occurred. The observed apparent inward motion of the jet at 22 GHz could be caused by a new jet component, unresolved at 22 GHz, in the innermost region.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.134.2-134.2
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• 2012

Discrete auroras, with unique shapes embedded in diffuse auroras, are generally associated with precipitating electrons that originate from the plasma sheet and are accelerated on the way as they travel to polar regions along the field lines. Two acceleration mechanisms have been proposed: quasi-static electric fields and dispersive Alfven waves, which are believed to yield monoenergetic peaks and broadband features in the particle spectra, respectively. Hence, it should be interesting to see how the two different mechanisms, through their characteristic spectra of the accelerated electrons, produce distinct auroral images and spectra, especially in the far ultraviolet (FUV) wavelengths as the long and short Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) bands exist as well as the strong absorption band of molecular oxygen in the FUV band. In fact, we have previously shown, using the simultaneous observations of precipitating electrons and the corresponding FUV spectra, that the discrete auroras associated with inverted-V events have a stronger relative intensity of the long LBH to the short LBH compared to diffuse auroras, especially when the peak energy is above a few keV. In this paper, we would like to focus on the differences in the FUV images and spectra between the two discrete auroras of the monoenergetic and broadband cases, again based on the study using the dataset of simultaneous observations of particles and FUV spectral images.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.132.1-132.1
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• 2012

Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model has developed to understand radiation belt dynamics as it considers whistler mode hiss and chorus waves which is responsible for relativistic electron acceleration and precipitation. Recently, many studies on electron loss by pitch-angle scattering have reported that elctromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave is also responsible for main loss mechanism in dusk and equatorial regeion. Here, we attempt to incorporate EMIC into RBE model simulation code to understand more detailed physical dynamics in Radiation belt environemnt. We compare this developed model to data during storm events where both of electron loss and EMIC waves were detected.