• Title/Summary/Keyword: annual maximum

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Comparison of Annual Maximum Rainfall Series and Annual Maximum Independent Rainfall Event Series (연최대치 계열과 연최대치 독립 호우사상 계열의 비교)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Park, Cheol-Soon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.431-444
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    • 2012
  • This study investigated the differences between annual maximum series and annual maximum independent rainfall event series with relatively short and long rainfall durations. Annual maximum independent rainfall events were selected by applying various IETDs and thresholds to the hourly rainfall data in Seoul for the duration from 1961 to 2010. Annual maximum independent rainfall event series decided were then compared with the conventional annual maximum series. Summarizing the results is as follows. First, the effect of IETD and threshold was not beyond the expected level. For example, as the IETD increases, the frequencies of independent rainfall events decreased similarly in their rate for both with short and long durations. However, as the threshold increases, the frequency of those with rather long durations decreased much higher. Second, The mean rainfall intensity of the independent rainfall events was found to remain constant regardless of their duration. This indicates that the annual maximum rainfall intensity could be found in a rainfall event with longer durations. Lastly, the difference between the annual maximum rainfall series and the annual maximum independent rainfall event series with rather short rainfall durations was found significantly large, which decreases with longer durations. This result indicates that the conventional data analysis method, especially for small basins with short concentration time, could lead an unrealistic design rainfall with little possibility of occurrence.

Review of Parameter Estimation Procedure of Freund Bivariate Exponential Distribution (Freund 이변량 지수분포의 매개변수 추정과정 검토)

  • Park, Cheol-Soon;Yoo, Chul-Sang
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.191-201
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    • 2012
  • This study reviewed the parameter estimation procedure of the Freund bivariate exponential distribution for the decision of the annual maximum rainfall event. The method of moments was reviewed first, whose results were compared with those from the method of maximum likelihood. Both methods were applied to the hourly rainfall data of the Seoul rain gauge station measured from 1961 to 2010 to select the annual maximum rainfall events, which were also compared each other. The results derived are as follows. First, when applying the method of moments for the parameter estimation, it was found necessary to consider the correlation coefficient between the two variables as well as the mean and variance. Second, the method of maximum likelihood was better to reproduce the mean, but the method of moments was better to reproduce the annual variation of the variance. Third, The annual maximum rainfall events derived were very similar in both cases. Among differently selected annual maximum rainfall events, those with the higher rainfall amount were selected by the method of maximum likelihood, but those with the higher rainfall intensity by the method of moments.

Effect of Period of Record on Probable Rainfall Prediction (강우기록년한이 확률수문량 추정에 미치는 영향에 관한연구)

  • 이근후;한욱동
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 1981
  • Long term precipitation gaging station record (58 years) was analyzed by progressive mean method to compare the estimated effective period of records for computing mean and probable values. Obtained results are as follows: 1. Fifty-eight years precipitation records at Jinju, Gyeong Sang Nam Do was analyzed by double mass analysis method. Result was appeared that the record was consistent with time. 2. The effective period of records for estimating mean values with the departure of 5% or less from the true mean are up to 33 years for annual precipitation, 20 years for annual maximum daily precipitation and 45 years for maximum successive dry days in summer season. 3. To estimate the probable values by Gumbel-Chow method within the departure of 5% level from true value, periods of 51 years, 38 years and 45 years were required for annual precipitation, annual maximum daily precipitation and maximum successive dry days in summer season, respectively.

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Regional Analysis of Precipitation using Mean Annual Precipitation and Cluster Methods (연강수량 및 클러스터 기법에 의한 강수의 지역화 분석(수공))

  • 이순혁;맹승진;류경식;지호근
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.397-404
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    • 2000
  • A total of 65 rain gauges with Automatic Weather Station(AWS) were used to regional analysis of precipitation. Nine cluster regions were identified using geographical locations, maximum, mean, standard deviation of 1 day maximum rainfalls, mean annual precipitation and rainfall of rainy season in Korea. The mean annual precipitation, geographical locations, and the synoptic generating mechanisms were used to identify th five climatological homogeneous regions in Korea. Number of final regions by mean annual precipitation and cluster methods divided into five regions in Korea.

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The Recent Climatic Characteristic and Change in the Republic of Korea based on the New Normals (1991~2020) (신평년(1991~2020년)에 기반한 우리나라 최근 기후특성과 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Hongjun Choi;Jeongyong Kim;Youngeun Choi;Inhye Hur;Taemin Lee;Sojung Kim;Sookjoo Min;Doyoung Lee;Dasom Choi;Hyun Min Sung;Jaeil Kwon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.477-492
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    • 2023
  • Based on the new climate normals (1991~2020), annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature is 12.5℃, 18.2℃, and 7.7℃, respectively while annual precipitation is 1,331.7 mm, the annual mean wind speed is 2.0 m s-1, and the relative humidity is 67.8% in the Republic of Korea. Compared to 1981~2010 normal, annual mean temperature increased by 0.2℃, maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 0.3℃, while the amount of precipitation (0.7%) and relative humidity (1.1%) decreased. There was no distinct change in annual mean wind speed. The spatial range of the annual mean temperature in the new normals is large from 7.1 to 16.9℃. Annual precipitation showed a high regional variability, ranging from 787.3 to 2,030.0 mm. The annual mean relative humidity decreased at most weather stations due to the rise in temperature, and the annual mean wind speed did not show any distinct difference between the new and old normals. With the addition of a warmer decade (2011~2020), temperatures all increased consistently and in particular, the increase in the maximum temperature, which had not significantly changed in previous decades, was evident. The increasing trend of annual and summer precipitation by the 2010s has disappeared in the new normals. Among extreme climate indices, MxT30 (Daily maximum temperature ≥ 33℃ days), MnT25 (Daily minimum temperature ≥ 25℃ days), and PH30 (1 hour maximum precipitation ≥ 30 mm days) increased while MnT-10 (Daily minimum temperature < -10℃ days) and W13.9 (Daily maximum wind speed ≥ 13.9 m/s days) decreased at a statistically significant level. It is thought that a detailed study on the different trends of climate elements and extreme climate indices by region should be conducted in the future.

Comparison of Chukwooki and Modern data Using Annual Maximum Rainfall Event Series (연최대 호우사상 계열을 이용한 측우기자료 및 현대자료의 비교)

  • Park, Minkyu;Yoo, Chulsang;Kim, Hyeon Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.2B
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    • pp.137-147
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    • 2010
  • In this study, Chukwooki and modern data were compared using annual maximum rainfall event series. Annual maximum series for specified rainfall duration in modern frequency analysis can not be constructed from Chukwooki data, so the concept of independent rainfall event is introduced to compare Chukwooki and modern data. Annual maximum rainfall event is determined by applying the bivariate exponential distribution and the parameters estimated annually are selected. The results using the annual parameter show that the hydrological meaning of the parameters is related to the variation of annual total rainfall amounts. For the whole independent rainfall events, the total rainfall and the rainfall intensity of Chukwooki data are greater than those of modern data, and rainfall duration of the two periods is similar. However modern annual maximum rainfall events show different characteristics that rainfall duration is much longer, rainfall intensity is similar and the total rainfall is greater than those of Chukwooki period. The increasing trend of rainfall duration and total rainfall of the modern annual rainfall events may be regarded as the one of components of the long-term cycle.

A Study on the Application ratio of Directional wind speeds Characteristics by Gumbel Model Simulation Using Directional wind Patterns (풍향패턴에 따른 굼벨 모델 시뮬레이션에 의한 풍향풍속성의 적용율 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Yung-Bea
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.573-580
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    • 2010
  • In this study, an assessment method that considers the effects of directional wind speeds on buildings or structures that are sensitive to wind is proposed. Also, the basic characteristics of directional wind speeds were assessed by means of local annual maximum wind speeds. From the method of assessment of the characteristics of directional wind speeds, their goodness-of-fit was verified by applying extreme value distribution to the data on annual maximum wind speeds from the Korea Meteorological Administration. To consider the characteristics of directional winds, an assessment method is suggested that divides the directional wind pattern of each directional wind speed into four groups. From the study results, all the data on directional wind speeds based on the Gumbel distribution were examined using data on annual maximum wind speeds from Seoul, Tongyung, and Incheon. Since the Gumbel model of all directional wind speeds has independent probability characteristics that govern the 4 directional wind pattern groups, the application ratio proposed was based on the assessment of these four groups. According to the goodness-of-fit of the data on the annual maximum wind speeds based on the Gumbel distribution, new application ratios were proposed that consider the directional wind speeds in Seoul, Tongyung, and Incheon.

Analysis on the Characteristics about Representative Temporal-distribution of Rainfall in the Annual Maximum Independent Rainfall Events at Seoul using Beta Distribution (베타분포를 이용한 서울 지점 연 최대치 독립 호우사상의 대표 시간분포 특성 분석)

  • Jun, Chang Hyun;Yoo, Chulsang
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.361-372
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    • 2013
  • This study used the beta distribution to analyze the independent annual maximum rainfall events from 1961 to 2010 and decided the representative rainfall event for Seoul. In detail, the annual maximum rainfall events were divided into two groups, the upper 50% and the lower 50%. For each group, a beta distribution was derived to pass the mean location of the rainfall peaks. Finally, the representative rainfall event was decided as the rainfall histogram of the arithmetic average of the two beta distributions derived. The representative rainfall event derived has a realistic shape very similar to those observed annual maximum rainfall events, especially with the higher rainfall peak compared to that of the Huff distribution. Comparison with other rainfall distribution models shows that the temporal distribution of the representative rainfall event derived in this study is most similar to the Keifer & Chu model.

Studies of the Forest Structure and Productivity in Korea -Models of Maximum Productivity and Optimum Cutting Time of the Forests by Annual Ring Growth analyses- (韓國의 森林構造에 따른 物質生産力에 관한 分析 - 年齡生長 分析에 의한 森林 樹木의 最高生産力期 및 最適伐採期 推定모델 -)

  • Chang, Nam-Kee;Kim, Heui-Baek;Oh, In-Hye;Chang, Myung-Ae
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.191-202
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    • 1990
  • For the maximun yield of the forest trees in the forest management, the growth of annual ring area of the major forest trees was analysed in the four areas in South Korea. The time to the maximum productivity and the optimum cutting time for the maximum yield were estimated. The growth curve of annual ring area showed sigmoid like that of other organisms. Only the growth coefficient among the areas between Fraxinus rhynchophylla and Pinus koraiensis represented significance (5% level). The growth coefficient among forest trees between Pinus densiflora and Abies holophylla, Larix kaempferi and Carpinus laxiflora, Larix kaempferi and Quercus mongolica, Larix kaempferi and Quercus serrata, Larix kaempferi and Pinus koraiensis, and Larix kaempferi and Abies holophylla represented significance (5% level). Among eight forest trees, the time to maximum productivity (tm) of Larix kaempferi was the earliest (21.4 year), and Abies holophylla was the latest (91.9 year). The optimum cutting time for the maximum yield (tc) of L. kaempferi was the earliest (29.4 year) and that of A, holophylla was the latest (122.2 year) of all communities. The optimum cutting time for the maximum yield was 1.33 times as late as the time to the maximum productivity. If the growth of annual ring area as the forest tree for wood is regarded, L. kaempferi and P. densiflora are thought to be more economical than A. holophylla and P. koraiensis.

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Proposal and Application of Water Deficit-Duration-Frequency Curve using Threshold Level Method (임계수준 방법을 이용한 물 부족량-지속기간-빈도 곡선의 제안 및 적용)

  • Sung, Jang Hyun;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.11
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    • pp.997-1005
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    • 2014
  • This study evaluated hydrological drought the using the annual minimum flow and the annual maximum deficit method and proposed the new concept of water deficit-duration-frequency curves similar to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves. The analysis results of the annual minimum flow, the return periods of hydrological drought in the most duration of 1989 and 1996yr were the longest. The analysis results of the annual maximum deficit, the return periods of 60-days and 90-day deficit which are relatively short duration were the longest in 1995yr, about 35-year, Hydrological drought lasted longer was in 1995, the return period was about 20-year. Though duration as well as magnitude is a key variable in drought analysis, it was found that the method using the annual minimum flow duration not distinguish duration.