• Title/Summary/Keyword: and Traffic Demand Prediction

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Comparative Analysis of Estimation of Demand for Urban Railway Stations and Forecast of Transportation Facilities Size Prediction (도시철도역 이용수요 추정 및 이동편의시설 규모 예측 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Hwang Bae;Lee, Sang Hwa;Bae, Choon Bong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.877-886
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    • 2019
  • The size of the subway entrance should be calculated according to the user's demand, but Korea has the same size for each entrance by applying a uniform value. Recently, the installation of mobile convenience facilities such as escalators, elevators, etc. is mandated by the traffic weakness promotion law, but it is inconvenient to use the existing stations because it is mainly arranged in the place where it can be installed regardless of user demand. This study aims to establish a model for estimating the size of mobile convenience facilities by predicting the use demand of each station entrance so that the location and size of mobile facilities can be reflected in the design or construction of the station. To this end, a multiple regression model was established to forecast daily demand by utilizing the demand for getting on and off by station and the building association area for each purpose around the railway station. The actual data of Dongdaemun and Jonggak Stations were used to verify the estimated model. In addition, the escalator installation scale was compared / analyzed by doorway using domestic and overseas escalator equations. As a result, it was more accurate to estimate the usage demand for a single station. Also, Jonggak Station has an up and down escalator installed at exit 1, but it was analyzed that it is appropriate to install at exit 4. This study is an advanced form of the essay model for estimating the users of the entrance and exit users of urban railway stations published in 2018. In addition, it seems to be the basis of the current escalator installation criteria.

Prediction of Evacuation Time for Emergency Planning Zone of Uljin Nuclear Site (울진원전 방사선비상계획구역에 대한 소개시간 예측)

  • Jeon, In-Young;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2002
  • The time for evacuation of residents in emergency planning zone(EPZ) of Uljin nuclear site in case of a radiological emergency was estimated with traffic analysis. Evacuees were classified into 4 groups by considering population density, local jurisdictions, and whether they ate residents or transients. The survey to investigate the behavioral characteristics of the residents was made for 200 households and included a hypothetical scenario explaining the accident situation and questions such as dwelling place, time demand for evacuation preparation transportation means for evacuation, sheltering place, and evacuation direction. The microscopic traffic simulation model, CORSIM, was used to simulate the behavior of evacuating vehicles on networks. The results showed that the evacuation time required for total vehicles to move out from EPZ took longer in the daytime than at night in spite that the delay times at intersections were longer at night than in the daytime. This was analyzed due to the differences of the trip generation time distribution. To validate whether the CORSIM model fan appropriately simulate the congested traffic phenomena assumable in case of emergency, a benchmark study was conducted at an intersection without an actuated traffic signal near Uljin site during the traffic peak-time in the morning. This study indicated that the predicted output by the CORSIM model was in good agreement with the observed data. satisfying the purpose of this study.

A Study on Forecasting Trip Distribution of Land Development Project Using Middle Zone Size And Gravity Model (중죤단위와 중력모형을 이용한 택지개발사업의 통행분포 예측방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Chang-Yong;Son, Ui-Yeong;Kim, Do-Gyeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2009
  • In case of land development projects constructed, to solve induced transportation volume needs analysis of traffic demand. Trip-generation of land development projects is exactly predicted by using traffic instigating-basic-unit in each facility of land developments. But in case of a phase of trip-distribution, because a range of destinations is very enormous and it needs enormous data to reflect all of its characters, whenever trip-distribution is predicted, the method which assumes the rate of trip-distribution is same both before completion of land development projects and after is often used. But because there is no exact criterion, the method suggested above is also affected by subjective opinion. Accordingly, this study look over using trip-distribution of specific areas's DB and suggests a size of zone to predict a distribution of land development projects exactly. Also production - constrained gravity model which uses the gap between a distribution of suggested ranges and induced land development project is suggested for more exact prediction of trip-distribution. Besides accuracy of prediction is scrutinized by using Mean Squared Error.

Novel online routing algorithms for smart people-parcel taxi sharing services

  • Van, Son Nguyen;Hong, Nhan Vu Thi;Quang, Dung Pham;Xuan, Hoai Nguyen;Babaki, Behrouz;Dries, Anton
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.220-231
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    • 2022
  • Building smart transportation services in urban cities has become a worldwide problem owing to the rapidly increasing global population and the development of Internet-of-Things applications. Traffic congestion and environmental concerns can be alleviated by sharing mobility, which reduces the number of vehicles on the road network. The taxi-parcel sharing problem has been considered as an efficient planning model for people and goods flows. In this paper, we enhance the functionality of a current people-parcel taxi sharing model. The adapted model analyzes the historical request data and predicts the current service demands. We then propose two novel online routing algorithms that construct optimal routes in real-time. The objectives are to maximize (as far as possible) both the parcel delivery requests and ride requests while minimizing the idle time and travel distance of the taxis. The proposed online routing algorithms are evaluated on instances adapted from real Cabspotting datasets. After implementing our routing algorithms, the total idle travel distance per day was 9.64% to 12.76% lower than that of the existing taxi-parcel sharing method. Our online routing algorithms can be incorporated into an efficient smart shared taxi system.

A Plan of Communications Network Modernization suitable to an Area Characteristic in North-Korea (북한의 지역특성에 적합한 통신망 현대화 방안)

  • 이재완;고남영
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.6 no.7
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    • pp.1006-1012
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    • 2002
  • The aim of this paper is to present suitable and applicable aspects for domestic and foreign conditions and strategies for modernizing a realizable communications network based on local characteristics in North Korea. Thus, the selection of an objective area, the collection of data, the analysis of characteristics of objective area, the prediction of demand and traffic and the establishment of methods for modernizing a synthetic communications network are necessary. Hut because a general communications inflation in North Korea is placed under primary stage, it is impossible to consider all things mentioned above. Therefore, in this paper, it is considered only basic strategies for modernizing communications network and established a structure of a conceptual communications network in the goal year.

A Plan of Communications Network Modernization suitable to an Area Characteristic in North-Korea (북한의 지역특성에 적합한 통신망 현대화 방안)

  • 이재완;고남영
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.120-125
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    • 2002
  • The aim of this paper is to present suitable and applicable aspects for domestic and foreign conditions and strategies for modernizing a realizable communications network based on local characteristics in North Korea. Thus, the selection of an objective area, the collection of data, the analysis of characteristics of objective area, the prediction of demand and traffic and the establishment of methods for modernizing a synthetic communications network are necessary. But because a general communications inflation in North Korea is placed under primary stage, it is impossible to consider all things mentioned above. Therefore, in this paper, it is considered only basic strategies for modernizing communications network and established a structure of a conceptual communications network in the goal year.

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Forecasting of Motorway Path Travel Time by Using DSRC and TCS Information (DSRC와 TCS 정보를 이용한 고속도로 경로통행시간 예측)

  • Chang, Hyun-ho;Yoon, Byoung-jo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.1033-1041
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    • 2017
  • Path travel time based on departure time (PTTDP) is key information in advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Despite the necessity, forecasting PTTDP is still one of challenges which should be successfully conquered in the forecasting area of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). To address this problem effectively, a methodology to dynamically predict PTTDP between motorway interchanges is proposed in this paper. The method was developed based on the relationships between traffic demands at motorway tollgates and PTTDPs between TGs in the motorway network. Two different data were used as the input of the model: traffic demand data and path travel time data are collected by toll collection system (TCS) and dedicated short range communication (DSRC), respectively. The proposed model was developed based on k-nearest neighbor, one of data mining techniques, in order for the real applications of motorway information systems. In a feasible test with real-world data, the proposed method performed effectively by means of prediction reliability and computational running time to the level of real application of current ATIS.

A Study on an ETCS Demand Forecasting Model of Toll Roads in Changwon City (유료도로 ETCS 이용수요 예측모형에 관한 연구 (창원시를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Kyung-Whan;Ha, Man-Bok;Jeon, Yeon-Hoo;Lee, Ik-Su
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.9 no.1 s.31
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2007
  • Since early 1990s, several developed countries have applied the Electronic Toll Collection System (ETCS) to toll roads in order to solve traffic congestion and delay problems at toll plazas. For the successful operation of the ETCS, it is important to correctly forecast the ETCS using rate. In this study, it was conceived to develop a sophisticated demand forecasting model of the ETCS for toll roads in Changwon City The Binary Logit and neural network models were tested for the model considering 11 explaining variables. The best results in prediction accuracy and goodness-of-fit were obtained on the neural network model. However, because of the difficulty in predicting the 11 variables and its fitness in wide range, the Binary Logit model which considers three policy variables only is recommended as the model to forecast the ETCS using rate.

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A Study on the Analysis Effect Factors of Illegal Parking Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 불법주차 영향요인 분석)

  • Lee, Chang-Hee;Kim, Myung-Soo;Seo, So-Min
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2014
  • With the rapid development in the economy and other fields as well, the standard of living in South Korea has been improved, and consequently, the demand of automobiles has quickly increased. It leads to various traffic issues such as traffic congestion, traffic accident, and parking problem. In particular, this illegal parking caused by the increase in the number of automobiles has been considered one of the main reasons to bring about traffic congestion as intensifying any dispute between neighbors in relation to a parking space, which has been also coming to the fore as a social issue. Therefore, this study looked into Daejeon Metropolitan City, the city that is understood to have the highest automobile sharing rate in South Korea but with relatively few cases of illegal parking crackdowns. In order to investigate the theoretical problems of the illegal parking, this study conducted a decision-making tree model-based Exhaustive CHAID analysis to figure out not only what makes drivers park illegally when they try to park vehicles but also those factors that would tempt the drivers into the illegal parking. The study, then, comes up with solutions to the problem. According to the analysis, in terms of the influential factors that encourage the drivers to park at some illegal areas, it was learned that these factors, the distance, a driver's experience of getting caught, the occupation and the use time in order, have an effect on the drivers' deciding to park illegally. After working on the prediction model, four nodes were finally extracted. Given the analysis result, as a solution to the illegal parking, it is necessary to establish public parking lots additionally and first secure the parking space for the vehicles used for living and working, and to activate the campaign for enhancing illegal parking crackdown and encouraging civic consciousness.

A study of Improvement for Residential Environment according to Segementation of Residential Zoning (주거지역 종세분화에 따른 주거환경 개선에 관한 연구 - 바람길을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Dae-Wuk;Jung, Eung-Ho;Ryu, Ji-Won;Cha, Jae-Gyu;Lee, Jun-Young
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2010
  • Various environmental problems due to rapid industrialization and urbanization have worsened to such an extent that they threaten the environmental restitution of the globe and become a critical international issue. Korean government has presented the concept of green growth as a new state vision for the next 60 years and is making efforts to solve these environmental problems. Daegu Metropolitan City has faced various environmental problems including overpopulation of the city, traffic pollution, household waste accumulation and the green zone problem because of the increase of urbanization over the last few decades. As such urbanization continues, the quality of residential environments is rapidly deteriorating and the intensive use of the land leads to an increase of building area, raising the temperatures of cities. There have therefore been demands for healthy, pleasant and satisfying residential environments and for the improvement of existing residential environments, and this demand has been fully recognized by society. Nevertheless, current residential complex developments concentrate only on raising the efficiency of land use. In related laws of the past (Daegu Metropolitan City, Urban Planning Municipal Ordinance as of October 10, 2003) an attempt was made to impose a standard to segmentalize the building-to-land ratio, floor area ratio and regulations of number of floors vertically. However, these laws have now been abolished and the regulations are being eased. The purpose of this study was to analyze the characteristics of the floating wind before and after the vertical segmentation of residential areas (Daegu Metropolitan City, Urban Planning Municipal Ordinance as of October 10, 2003) by using KLAM_21, a model that enables analysis and prediction of the flow and generation of cold wind. The purpose is also to present a plan to improve the quality of residential areas when developing a building lot and redeveloping housing areas.