• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.141-154
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• 2018

In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.95-106
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• 2016

Air transportation demand is consistently increasing in Korea due to economic growth and low cost carriers. For this reason, airport expansion plans are being discussed in Korea. Therefore, it is essential to forecast reliable air transportation demand with adequate methods. However, most of the air transportation demand models in Korea has been developed by simple regression analysis with several dummy variables. Simple regression analysis without considering stationarity of time-series data can bring spurious outputs when a direct causal relationship between explanatory variables and dependent variable does not exist. In this paper, econometric model were developed for air transportation demand based on stationarity in time-series data. Unit root test and co-integration test are used for testing hypothesis of stationarity.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.1-15
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• 2009

Central supply depot of Air Force has been receiving and storing the goods from the inside and outside of the country. And it also has been distributing the goods to the air base by air, rail, road, etc. These goods have been called central goods. Among these central goods, 10% of them are transported by air and the amount of freight is increasing day by day. So, air transportation in the Air Force has been more important than ever. But, studies of demand estimation for activating air transportation are very difficient. This study verified the main factors affecting to air transportation and the function of regression model will be useful data for estimating air freight demand.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.313-324
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• 2017

At present, many countries around the world, as well as Korea, have faced serious social problems due to increased traffic congestion resulting in the social loss. As a result, there is an increasing demand for new transportation which is not exist. This is why many companies around the world are trying to solve this problem with transportation innovation through On Demand Mobility(ODM) which uses Personal Air Vehicle(PAV) that is operated on demand by customer rather than scheduled transportation. This study analyzed the current research trends of the On Demand Mobility projects of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), UBER, and AIRBUS. Also, this study presents the benefit of adopting this On Demand Mobility systems into Korea. Three commuting routes were set up in the metropolitan area in Korea, and the benefit of using the On Demand Mobility method was compared with the current public transportation and private car.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.137-143
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• 2018

Korea's air passenger traffic has been growing steadily. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model of air passenger demand to ascertain the growth trend of air passenger transportation performance in Korea. We conducted a simulation based on System Dynamics with the demand as a dependent variable, and international oil prices, GDP and exchange rates as exogenous variables. The accuracy of the model was verified using MAPE and $R^2$, and the proposed prediction model was verified as an accurate prediction model. As a result of the demand forecast, it is predicted that the air passenger demand in Korea will continue to grow, and the share of low cost carriers will increase sharply. The addition of the Korean transportation performance of foreign carriers in Korea and the transportation performance of Korean passengers due to the alliance of airlines will provide a more accurate forecast of passenger demand.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.145-158
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• 2015

A network connectivity has been regarded as a key element to strengthen a business competitive power in the aviation industry, so many airport authorities try to attract the new airlines and scheme out new air routes. With this trend, a study for an induced travel demand estimation methodology is needed. This study introduces a demand estimation method, especially for a new air route to a promising destination. With the results of previous studies, the derived demand is classified into four types - Local, Beyond, Behind and Bridge. The explanatory variables are established for each type of demand and the main independent variables are composed of distance, ratio of detour, and relative capacity compared with other airports. The equations using such variables and statistically significant coefficients are suggested as the model to make an estimation of derived demand for a new route. Therefore this study will be expected to take an initial step for all related parties to be involved more deeply into developing new air routes to enhance network connectivity.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.27-34
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• 2000

This study analyzes the price elasticities of airline Passenger demand through the 'Stated Preference' technique which uses survey data. Because the domestic airfare has been regulated by the government. it is not easy to derive Price elasticity through the usual regression analysis with aggregate data and thus a special methodology is required for elasticity estimation. Therefore, in this study we estimated the Price elasticities of domestic air passenger demand and the modal share change rates to the alternative modes with logit model and sample enumeration method, by analyzing the survey data on air Passengers' demand behavior about the mode choice between air-rail. air-bus, and air-car. As the results, the estimated price elasticities are in the range of -0.6~-0.9, and rail is mainly chosen as an alternative mode. bus is chosen Partly, and car is barely used.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.135-142
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• 2017

As PED(Personal Electronic Device) market has been rapidly grown, the demand on Lithium battery, which is most commonly used power source of PED, also has been increased. Dew to this trend, the amount of Lithium battery air transportation is also increasing. However, it should be treated very carefully because Lithium is one of very explosive metal. So ICAO, IATA and civil aviation agencies try to enhance the safety of Lithium battery air transportation by aircraft certification and operating regulations. To enhance in-flight safety, the aircraft for transporting Lithium battery should equip certified fire extinguishing system. But recent studies find that Halon, currently used extinguishing agent, is not effective on extinguishing Lithium battery fire. Besides, there is no certified Halon replacement for air use and no acceptable specific minimum performance standard(MPS) for Lithium battery fire. For this issue, a study on characteristics and establishing MPS of Lithium battery fire is needed for safe air transportation of Lithium battery.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.83-91
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• 2009

This paper aims to predict air passenger and air freight demands in the air routes between South and North Korea. The air demands will be fostered by the visitors of Pyeongyang and Baekdu Mountain, whose forecasts will be used for supplying the air traffic services necessary for the active exchange and cooperation between South and North Korea in the future. The authors use the tool of regression analysis under the assumption of epoch-making progress in demand for aviation in accordance with the exchange and cooperation scenario between South and North Korea. After predicting the total number of travelers through regression analysis, the authors applied the share of air passengers among total travelers in order to predict the number of air passengers. Finally, the number of flights of each airport and route were forecasted by including the air freight, estimated from the number of air passengers.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.51-61
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• 2008

Most of Korea's 15 local airports, with the exception Jeju, Gimpo and Gimhae airports, have been several billion Won in the red each year. It has been reported that one of the causes of the poor financial performance is inaccurate air traffic demand predictions. Under the situation, the entry of low-cost carrier air service using turbo-prop airplanes into the domestic airlines market gets a wide range of support, which is expected to promote the convenience of consumers and help to activate local airports. In this study, the authors (1) suggest a high-speed transport demand model among existing airlines, Korea Train Express (KTX) and low-cost carrier air service; (2) try to make low-cost air carrier demand predictions for a route between Seoul and Daegu through a stated-preference survey; and (3), examine possible effectiveness of selected policy measures by establishing an estimation model. First, fare has a strong influence for mode choice between high-speed transport modes when considering the entry of low-cost carrier air service between Seoul and Daegu. Even low-cost carrier air service fare is set at 38,000 won, which is considerably low compared with that of KTX, in the regions where the total travel time is the same for both low-cost carrier air service and KTX, the probability of selecting low-cost carrier air service is 0.1, which shows little possibility of modal change between high speed transportation means. It is suggested that the fare of low-cost air service between Seoul and Daegu should be within the range of from of 38,000 to 44,000 Won; if it is higher, the demand is likely to be lower than expected.