• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권5호
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• pp.123-128
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• 2012

For optimal reservoir operation and management, there are essential elements including water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. To estimate agricultural water demand and supply, many factors such as weather, crops, soil, growing conditions cultivation method and the watershed/irrigation area should be considered, however, there are occurred water supply impossible duration under the influence of the variability and uncertainty of meteorological and hydrological phenomenon. Focusing on agricultural reservoir, amount and tendency of agricultural water supply and demand shows seasonally/regionally different patterns. Through the analysis of deviation and changes in the timing of the two elements, duration in excess of water supply can be identified quantitatively. Here, we introduce an approach to assessment of irrigation vulnerable duration for effective management of agricultural reservoir using time dependent change analysis of residual water supply and irrigation water requirements. Irrigation vulnerable duration has been determined through the comparison of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district based on the water budget analysis, therefore can be used as an improved and basis data for the effective and intensive water management.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제62권6호
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• pp.73-83
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• 2020

Agricultural drought is a natural phenomenon that is difficult to observe and quantitatively express, and agricultural water use is high and usage patterns are diverse, so even if there is a lack of rainfall. The frequency and severity of agricultural drought are increased during the irrigation period where the demand for agricultural water is generated, and reasonable and efficient management of agricultural water for stable water supply is required. As one method to solve the water shortage of agricultural water in an unstructured method, it is necessary to analyze the appropriate supply amount and supply method through simulation from the intake works to the canals organization and paddy field. In this study, irrigation efficiency was analyzed for irrigation systems from April to September over the past three years from the Musu Reservoir located in Jincheon-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do and Pungjeon Reservoir located in Seosan-si, Chungcheongnam-do. SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) was used to collect agricultural water, and irrigation efficiency analysis was conducted using adequacy indicators, and water supply vulnerability. The results of the agricultural water distribution simulation, irrigation efficiency and water supply vulnerability assessment are thought to help the overall understanding of the agricultural water supply and the efficient water management through preliminary analysis of the methods of agricultural water supply in case of drought events.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권6호
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• pp.39-44
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• 2012

Water supply capacity and operational capability in agricultural reservoirs are expressed differently in the limited storage due to seasonal and local variation of precipitation. Since agricultural water supply and demand basically assumes the uncertainty of hydrological phenomena, it is necessary to improve probabilistic approach for potential risk assessment of water supply capacity in reservoir for enhanced operational storage management. Here, it was introduced the irrigation vulnerability characteristic curves to represent the water supply capacity corresponding to probability distribution of the water demand from the paddy field and water supply in agricultural reservoir. Irrigation vulnerability probability was formulated using reliability analysis method based on water supply and demand probability distribution. The lower duration of irrigation vulnerability probability defined as the time period requiring intensive water management, and it will be considered to assessment tools as a risk mitigated water supply planning in decision making with a limited reservoir storage.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2012

The change of rainfall pattern and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the occurrence probability of agricultural reservoir water shortage. Water supply assessment of reservoir is usually performed current reservoir level compared to historical water levels or the simulation of reservoir operation based on the water budget analysis. Since each reservoir has the native property for watershed, irrigation district and irrigation water requirement, it is necessary to improve the assessment methods of agricultural reservoir water capability about water resources system. This study proposed a practical methods that water supply vulnerability assessment for an agricultural reservoir based on a concept of probabilistic reliability. The vulnerability assessment of water supply is calculated from probability distribution of water demand condition and water supply condition that influences on water resources management and reservoir operations. The water supply vulnerability indices are estimated to evaluate the performance of water supply on agricultural reservoir system, and thus it is recommended a more objective method to evaluate water supply reliability.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제66권5호
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• pp.29-40
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• 2024

Most agricultural reservoirs were built between the 1940s and 1970s. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the current water supply safety, considering changes in water capacity, the water management, and environment in relation to the passage of time.. The design frequency of drought, the number of years areservoir needs to be able to withstand a drought phenomenon, foragricultural water resources in Korea is the 10-year drought. As the water supply system and water supply patterns change, it is necessary to establish a concept of water supply reliability, which refers to the stability of water supply. This study evaluated the water supply reliability of agricultural reservoirs based on the designed frequency. The previously designed frequency and water balance analysis were used to calculate and analyze reservoir storage capacity, water supply turnover, water supply amount, water supply potential, water utilization safety, and water supply reliability. As a result, Yongmyeon Reservoir was found to be stable in terms of water supply reliability, whereas Seongho and Yongpung Reservoirs were found to be unstable using all methods. In particular, when converting the water utilization safety and the water supply reliability to the frequency of drought, Seongho and Yongpung Reservoir were in the lowest class, with a frequency of drought less than four years. Thus, we recommend that the consideration of water supply reliability be included in the preparation of adaptive measures and water supply strategies as changes in environmental conditions continue to develop.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제58권2호
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• pp.65-71
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• 2016

The new concept of agricultural water supply potential, which is mean annual turnover rate times unit storage capacity, was introduced for agricultural reservoirs. We investigated characteristics of mean annual turnover rate and unit storage capacity for agricultural reservoirs with storage capacity of over $1million\;m^3$. The curve of agricultural water supply potential represents change in mean annul turnover rate according to change in unit storage capacity. The mean annual turnover rate and unit storage capacity in the reservoirs with high minimum storage ratio are significantly higher than those in the reservoirs with low minimum storage ratio. Most of unstable water supply reservoirs showed low mean annual turnover rate or low unit storage capacity, indicating that mean annual turnover rate may be an index of stability degree for agricultural water use. The reservoirs with mean annual turnover rate of over 2 and unit storage capacity of over 0.8 m may be estimated as the stable water supply zone for 10 frequency dry year. The reservoirs with high agricultural water supply potential can belong to the wide range of stable water supply zone. The results suggest that relation between mean annual turnover rate and unit storage capacity may be used in evaluating stability degree for agricultural water supply in the reservoirs.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제49권3호
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• pp.679-690
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• 2022

As the supply and demand of pork has become a significant concern in Korea, controlling it has become a critical challenge for the industry. However, compared to the demand for pork, which has relatively stable consumption, it is not easy to maintain a stable supply. As the preparation of measures for a supply-demand crisis response and supply control in the pig industry has emerged as an important task, it has become necessary to establish a stable supply model and create an appropriate manual. In this study, a pork supply prediction model is constructed using reported data from the pig traceability system. Based on the derived results, a method for determining the supply-demand crisis stage using a statistical approach was proposed. From the results of the analysis, working days, African swine fever, heat wave, and Covid-19 were shown to affect the number of pigs graded in the market. A test of the performance of the model showed that both in-sample error rate and out-sample error rate were between 0.3 - 7.6%, indicating a high level of predictive power. Applying the forecast, the distribution of the confidence interval of the predicted value was established, and the supply crisis stage was identified, evaluating supply-demand conditions.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.999-1006
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• 2019

Recently, the quantitative management of agricultural water supply, which is the main source for water consumption in Korea, has become more important due to the effective water management organization of the Korean government. In this study, the estimation method for irrigation supply based on agricultural reservoir storage data was improved compared to previous research, in which drought year selection was unclear, and the outlier data for the rainfall-irrigation supply were not eliminated in the regression analysis. In this study, the drought year was selected by the ratio of annual precipitation to mean annual precipitation and the storage rate observed before the start of irrigation. The outlier data for the rainfall-irrigation supply were eliminated by the Grubbs & Beck test. The proposed method was applied to nine agricultural reservoirs for validation. As a result, the ratio of annual precipitation to mean annual precipitation is less than 53% and the storage rate observed before the start of irrigation is less than 55% it was judged to be the drought year. In addition, the drought supply factor, K, was found to be 0.70 on average, showing closer results to the observed reservoir rates. This shows that water management at the real is appling drought year practice. It was shown that the performance of the proposed method was satisfactory with NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) and R² (coefficient of determiniation) except for a few cases.

• 한국관개배수논문집
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.3-16
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• 2010

The subject of externality of agricultural water supply has been discussed in the OECD AC ( Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Agriculture Committee) while argued between monsoon Asian developing countries and the agricultural product export nations (Australia, EU, etc). It argued that a 'positive' approach to multifunctionality views agriculture as an economic activity with multiple, interconnected outputs or effects, and a 'normative' approach interprets multifunctionality in terms of the multiple roles assigned to agriculture. and the agricultural product export nations insisted 'negative' approach to externality of agricultural water supply like causing water pollution. So, in this study, define the externalities (positive, negative and economic, environmental) in terms of the agricultural water supply and calculate benefit and cost each the externalities by cost estimation. As results, BC is calculated to 1.28 which means that it is more economical to agricultural water supply and shows that although the negative exernalities comes out while supply the agricultural water, it still more valuable to supply the agricultural water.