• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.303-316
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• 2023

Rapid post-earthquake damage estimation of subway stations is particularly necessary to improve short-term crisis management and safety measures of urban subway systems after a destructive earthquake. The conventional Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework with constant earthquake occurrence rate is invalid to estimate the aftershock risk because of the time-varying rate of aftershocks and the uncertainty of mainshock-damaged state before the occurrence of aftershocks. This study presents a time-varying probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for underground structures considering mainshock and aftershock hazards. A discrete non-omogeneous Markov process is adopted to quantify the time-varying nature of aftershock hazard and the uncertainties of structural damage states following mainshock. The time-varying seismic risk of a typical rectangular frame subway station is assessed under mainshock-only (MS) hazard and mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) hazard. The results show that the probabilities of exceeding same limit states over the service life under MSAS hazard are larger than the values under MS hazard. For the same probability of exceedance, the higher response demands are found when aftershocks are considered. As the severity of damage state for the station structure increases, the difference of the probability of exceedance increases when aftershocks are considered. PSDR=1.0% is used as the collapse prevention performance criteria for the subway station is reasonable for both the MS hazard and MSAS hazard. However, if the effect of aftershock hazard is neglected, it can significantly underestimate the response demands and the uncertainties of potential damage states for the subway station over the service life.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.641-652
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• 2019

This paper investigates the effect of aftershocks on the seismic performance of self-centering (SC) prestressed concrete frames using the probabilistic seismic demand analysis methodology. For this purpose, a 4-story SC concrete frame and a conventional reinforced concrete (RC) frame are designed and numerically analyzed through nonlinear dynamic analyses based on a set of as-recorded mainshock-aftershock seismic sequences. The peak and residual story drifts are selected as the demand parameters. The probabilistic seismic demand models of the SC and RC frames are compared, and the SC frame is found to have less dispersion of peak and residual story drifts. The results of drift demand hazard analyses reveal that the SC frame experiences lower peak story drift hazards and significantly reduced residual story drift hazards than the RC frame when subjected to the mainshocks only or the mainshock-aftershock sequences, which demonstrates the advantages of the SC frame over the RC frame. For both the SC and RC frames, the influence of as-recorded aftershocks on the drift demand hazards is small. It is shown that artificial aftershocks can produce notably increased drift demand hazards of the RC frame, while the incremental effect of artificial aftershocks on the drift demand hazards of the SC frame is much smaller. It is also found that aftershock polarity does not influence the drift demand hazards of both the SC and RC frames.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.3 no.5
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• pp.767-781
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• 2012

The residual capacity against collapse of a main shock-damaged bridge can be coupled with the aftershock ground motion hazard to make an objective decision on its probability of collapse in aftershocks. In this paper, a steel tower suspension bridge with a main span of 2000 m is adopted for a case-study. Seismic responses of the bridge in longitudinal and transversal directions are analyzed using dynamic elasto-plastic finite displacement theory. The analysis is conducted in two stages: main shock and aftershocks. The ability of the main shock-damaged bridge to resist aftershocks is discussed. Results show that the damage caused by accumulated plastic strain can be ignored in the long-span suspension bridge. And under longitudinal and transversal seismic excitations, the damage is prone to occur at higher positions of the tower and the shaft-beam junctions. When aftershocks are not large enough to cause plastic strain in the structure, the aftershock excitation can be ignored in the seismic damage analysis of the bridge. It is also found that the assessment of seismic damage can be determined by superposition of damage under independent action of seismic excitations.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.303-315
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• 2024

This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for estimating accumulative damage of bridge structures under multiple seismic excitations, in the framework of site-specific probabilistic hazard analysis. Specifically, a typical earthquake-prone region in China is chosen to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to find the mean annual rate (MAR) of ground motion intensity at a specific level, based on which, a mass of ground motion observations is selected to construct random earthquake sequences with various number of shocks. Then, nonlinear time history analysis is implemented on the finite element (FE) model of a RC girder bridge at the site of interest, to investigate structural responses under different earthquake sequences, and to develop predictive model for cumulative damage computation, in which, a scalar seismic intensity measure (IM) is adopted and its performance in damage prediction is discussed by an experimental column. Furthermore, a mathematic model is established to calculate occurrence probability of earthquakes with various number of shocks, based on PSHA and homogenous Poisson random process, and a modified cumulative damage indicator is proposed, accounting for probabilistic occurrence of various earthquake scenarios. At end, the applicability of the proposed methodology to main shock and aftershock scenarios is validated, and characteristics of damage accumulation under different multiple earthquake scenarios are discussed.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.437-452
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• 2012

The Tohoku earthquake (Mw9.0) occurred on March 11, 2011 and caused a large tsunami. The Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP (F1-NPP) were overwhelmed by the tsunami and core damage occurred. This paper describes the overview of F1-NPP accident and the usability of tsunami PRA at Tohoku earthquake. The paper makes reference to the following current issues: influence on seismic hazard of gigantic aftershocks and triggered earthquakes, concepts for evaluating core damage frequency considering common cause failure with correlation coefficient against seismic event at multi units and sites, and concepts of "seismic-tsunami PSA" considering a combination of seismic motion and tsunami effects.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.33 no.7
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• pp.637-644
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• 2012

The Seoul metropolitan area is densely populated with 40 percent of Korean people and quite weak to the seismic hazard. According to the analysis of historical documents, the largest earthquake occurred in this area is MMI VIII-IX acompanying with a large shaking, collapse of stone walls, collapse of houses, and many casualties. Two times of damaging earthquakes occurred in the first century (A.D. 27, 89), and there was a long quiet period of about 1430 years. Another big earthquakes re-occurred three times in the 16-17 century (1518, 1613, 1692) and then a quiet period has continued to the present time. Just after Seoul earthquake in 1518, aftershocks occurred almost 19 days consecutively and many triggered earthquakes occurred not only in Seoul metropolitan area but also in Hwanghae province, northern Korea. It indicates that the largest potential earthquake in and around Seoul is MMI VIII-IX with a long occurrence period of about 1400-1500 years.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.345-367
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• 2015

Past earthquakes have signaled the increased collapse vulnerability of mainshock-damaged bridge piers and urgent need of repair interventions prior to subsequent cascading hazard events, such as aftershocks, triggered by the mainshock (MS). The overarching goal of this study is to quantify the collapse vulnerability of mainshock-damaged substandard RC bridge piers rehabilitated with different repair jackets (FRP, conventional thick steel and hybrid jacket) under aftershock (AS) attacks of various intensities. The efficacy of repair jackets on post-MS resilience of repaired bridges is quantified for a prototype two-span single-column bridge bent with lap-splice deficiency at column-footing interface. Extensive number of incremental dynamic time history analyses on numerical finite element bridge models with deteriorating properties under back-to-back MS-AS sequences were utilized to evaluate the efficacy of different repair jackets on the post-repair behavior of RC bridges subjected to AS attacks. Results indicate the dramatic impact of repair jacket application on post-MS resilience of damaged bridge piers-up to 45.5 % increase of structural collapse capacity-subjected to aftershocks of multiple intensities. Besides, the efficacy of repair jackets is found to be proportionate to the intensity of AS attacks. Moreover, the steel jacket exhibited to be the most vulnerable repair intervention compared to CFRP, irrespective of the seismic sequence (severe MS-severe or moderate AS) or earthquake type (near-fault or far-fault).