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Constructing a Conceptual Framework of Smart Ageing Bridging Sustainability and Demographic Transformation (인구감소 시대와 초고령 사회의 지속가능한 삶으로서 스마트 에이징의 개념과 모형에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Hyunjeong Lee;JungHo Park
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2023
  • As population ageing and shrinking accompanied by dramatically expanded individual life expectancy and declining fertility rate is a global phenomenon, ageing becomes its broader perspective of ageing well embedded into sustained health and well-being, and also the fourth industrial revolution speeds up a more robust and inclusive view of smart ageing. While the latest paradigm of SA has gained considerable attention in the midst of sharply surging demand for health and social services and rapidly declining labor force, the definition has been widely and constantly discussed. This research is to constitute a conceptual framework of smart ageing (SA) from systematic literature review and the use of a series of secondary data and Geographical Information Systems(GIS), and to explore its components. The findings indicate that SA is considered to be an innovative approach to ensuring quality of life and protecting dignity, and identifies its constituents. Indeed, the construct of SA elaborates the multidimensional nature of independent living, encompassing three spheres - Aging in Place (AP), Well Aging (WA), and Active Ageing (AA). AP aims at maintaining independence and autonomy, entails safety, comfort, familiarity and emotional attachment, and it values social supports and services. WA assures physical, psycho-social and economic domains of well-being, and it concerns subjective happiness. AA focuses on both social engagement and economic participation. Moreover, the three constructs of SA are underpinned by specific elements (right to housing, income adequacy, health security, social care, and civic engagement) which are interrelated and interconnected.

Assessment of Nutrient Intakes of Lunch Meals for the Aged Customers at the Elderly Care Facilities Through Measuring Cooking Yield Factor and the Weighed Plate Waste (조리 중량 변화 계수 및 잔반계측법을 이용한 노인복지시설 이용자의 점심식사 영양섭취평가)

  • Chang, Hye-Ja;Yi, Na-Young;Kim, Tae-Hee
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.650-663
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    • 2009
  • The purposes of this study were to investigate one portion size of menus served and to evaluate nutrient intake of lunch at three elderly care facility food services located in Seoul. A weighed plate method was employed to measure plate wastes and consumption of the menus served. Yield factors were calculated from cooking experiments based on standardized recipes, and were used to evaluate nutrient intake. One hundred elderly participated in this study for measuring plate waste and were asked to complete questionnaire. Nutrient analyses for the served and consumed meal were performed using CAN program. The yield factors of rice dishes after cooking are 2.4 regardless of rice dish types, 1.58 for thick soups, 0.60 to 0.70 for meat dishes, and 1.0 to 1.25 branched vegetable. Average consumption quantity of dishes were 235.97 g for rice, 248.53 g for soup, 72.83 g for meat dishes, 39.80 g for vegetables and 28.36 g for Kimchi. On average the food waste rate is 14.0%, indicating the second highest plate waste percentage of Kimchi (26.2%), and meat/fish dish (17.3%). The evaluation results of NAR (Nutrition Adequacy Ratio) showed that iron (0.12), calcium (0.64), riboflavin (0.80), and folic acid (0.97) were less than 1.0 in both male and female elderly groups, indicating significant differences of NAR among three facilities. Compared to the 1/3 Dietary Reference Intake (DRIs) for the elderly groups, nutrient intake analysis demonstrated that calcium (100%) and iron (100%), followed by riboflavin, vitamin A, and Vitamin B6 did not met of the 1/3 EAR (Estimated Average Requirement). For the nutritious meal management, a professional dietitian should be placed at the elderly care center to develop standardized recipes in consideration of yield factors and the elderly's health and nutrition status.

A study on dietary habits, nutrient intakes and dietary quality in adults of a health screening and promotion center according to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (건강증진센터 고객의 비알콜성 지방간 유무에 따른 식습관 및 영양섭취, 식사의 질에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Ji Ho;Lee, Hye Seung;Kang, Eun Hee
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.330-341
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate dietary habits, food intakes, nutrient intakes, and diet quality of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in a health screening and promotion center. Methods: The total number of study subjects was 10,111 adults, where 3087 subjects (30.5%) were diagnosed as NAFLD. The dietary intakes were obtained using a food frequency questionnaire. They were then compared with the dietary reference intakes could be used in the future for development of diet and nutrition guidelines s (KDRIs). Results: Mean age of subjects in the normal group was $52.9{\pm}10.3yrs$ and body mass index (BMI) was $22.4{\pm}2.6kg/m^2$, and those of the NAFLD group were $55.1{\pm}9.2yrs$ and $25.4{\pm}2.9kg/m^2$. BMI, blood pressure of the NAFLD group were significantly higher than those of the normal group. The rates of skipping breakfast, overeating, and eating out were significantly could be used in the future for development of diet and nutrition guidelines er in the NAFLD group (p < 0.05, p < 0.000, p < 0.000 respectively). The speed of eating was fast in the NAFLD group (p < 0.000). The NAFLD group consumed significantly higher amounts of grains, meats, fish, seaweeds, kimchies, sugars, sweets, coffee, teas, and oils compared to the normal group (p < 0.05). Meanwhile, intakes of starch products, fruits, milk, and milk products were significantly lower in the NAFLD group compared with those of the normal group (p < 0.05). Riboflavin, calcium, and dietary fiber nutrient adequacy ratio (NAR) of the NAFLD group were significantly lower than those of the normal group. The Korean's dietary diversity score (KDDS) of the NAFLD group was lower than that of the normal group. Conclusion: In conclusion, we suggest that diet guidelines, such as increasing the intake of calcium and dietary fiber, reducing the intake of energy, fat, and simple carbohydrates, are necessary to improvement of NAFLD. The results could be used in the future for development of diet and nutrition guidelines for NAFLD.

Relationships Among Employees' IT Personnel Competency, Personal Work Satisfaction, and Personal Work Performance: A Goal Orientation Perspective (조직구성원의 정보기술 인적역량과 개인 업무만족 및 업무성과 간의 관계: 목표지향성 관점)

  • Heo, Myung-Sook;Cheon, Myun-Joong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.63-104
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    • 2011
  • The study examines the relationships among employee's goal orientation, IT personnel competency, personal effectiveness. The goal orientation includes learning goal orientation, performance approach goal orientation, and performance avoid goal orientation. Personal effectiveness consists of personal work satisfaction and personal work performance. In general, IT personnel competency refers to IT expert's skills, expertise, and knowledge required to perform IT activities in organizations. However, due to the advent of the internet and the generalization of IT, IT personnel competency turns out to be an important competency of technological experts as well as employees in organizations. While the competency of IT itself is important, the appropriate harmony between IT personnel's business capability and technological capability enhances the value of human resources and thus provides organizations with sustainable competitive advantages. The rapid pace of organization change places increased pressure on employees to continually update their skills and adapt their behavior to new organizational realities. This challenge raises a number of important questions concerning organizational behavior? Why do some employees display remarkable flexibility in their behavioral responses to changes in the organization, whereas others firmly resist change or experience great stress when faced with the need to alter behavior? Why do some employees continually strive to improve themselves over their life span, whereas others are content to forge through life using the same basic knowledge and skills? Why do some employees throw themselves enthusiastically into challenging tasks, whereas others avoid challenging tasks? The goal orientation proposed by organizational psychology provides at least a partial answer to these questions. Goal orientations refer to stable personally characteristics fostered by "self-theories" about the nature and development of attributes (such as intelligence, personality, abilities, and skills) people have. Self-theories are one's beliefs and goal orientations are achievement motivation revealed in seeking goals in accordance with one's beliefs. The goal orientations include learning goal orientation, performance approach goal orientation, and performance avoid goal orientation. Specifically, a learning goal orientation refers to a preference to develop the self by acquiring new skills, mastering new situations, and improving one's competence. A performance approach goal orientation refers to a preference to demonstrate and validate the adequacy of one's competence by seeking favorable judgments and avoiding negative judgments. A performance avoid goal orientation refers to a preference to avoid the disproving of one's competence and to avoid negative judgements about it, while focusing on performance. And the study also examines the moderating role of work career of employees to investigate the difference in the relationship between IT personnel competency and personal effectiveness. The study analyzes the collected data using PASW 18.0 and and PLS(Partial Least Square). The study also uses PLS bootstrapping algorithm (sample size: 500) to test research hypotheses. The result shows that the influences of both a learning goal orientation (${\beta}$ = 0.301, t = 3.822, P < 0.000) and a performance approach goal orientation (${\beta}$ = 0.224, t = 2.710, P < 0.01) on IT personnel competency are positively significant, while the influence of a performance avoid goal orientation(${\beta}$ = -0.142, t = 2.398, p < 0.05) on IT personnel competency is negatively significant. The result indicates that employees differ in their psychological and behavioral responses according to the goal orientation of employees. The result also shows that the impact of a IT personnel competency on both personal work satisfaction(${\beta}$ = 0.395, t = 4.897, P < 0.000) and personal work performance(${\beta}$ = 0.575, t = 12.800, P < 0.000) is positively significant. And the impact of personal work satisfaction(${\beta}$ = 0.148, t = 2.432, p < 0.05) on personal work performance is positively significant. Finally, the impacts of control variables (gender, age, type of industry, position, work career) on the relationships between IT personnel competency and personal effectiveness(personal work satisfaction work performance) are partly significant. In addition, the study uses PLS algorithm to find out a GoF(global criterion of goodness of fit) of the exploratory research model which includes a mediating variable, IT personnel competency. The result of analysis shows that the value of GoF is 0.45 above GoFlarge(0.36). Therefore, the research model turns out be good. In addition, the study performs a Sobel Test to find out the statistical significance of the mediating variable, IT personnel competency, which is already turned out to have the mediating effect in the research model using PLS. The result of a Sobel Test shows that the values of Z are all significant statistically (above 1.96 and below -1.96) and indicates that IT personnel competency plays a mediating role in the research model. At the present day, most employees are universally afraid of organizational changes and resistant to them in organizations in which the acceptance and learning of a new information technology or information system is particularly required. The problem is due' to increasing a feeling of uneasiness and uncertainty in improving past practices in accordance with new organizational changes. It is not always possible for employees with positive attitudes to perform their works suitable to organizational goals. Therefore, organizations need to identify what kinds of goal-oriented minds employees have, motivate them to do self-directed learning, and provide them with organizational environment to enhance positive aspects in their works. Thus, the study provides researchers and practitioners with a matter of primary interest in goal orientation and IT personnel competency, of which they have been unaware until very recently. Some academic and practical implications and limitations arisen in the course of the research, and suggestions for future research directions are also discussed.

A Study on the Technical and Administrative Innovation of Library Organization in the Perspective of the Contingency Theory (도서관조직의 기술혁신 및 행정혁신에 관한 조직상황론적 연구)

  • Hong Hyun-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.25
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    • pp.343-388
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    • 1993
  • The ability of any organization to innovate itself in a rapid change of environment means the existence of the organization. Innovative activity is achieved in different ways according to the objectives of organization. the characteristics of external environmental factors. and various attributes in organization. In the present study. all the existing approaches to the innovative nature of organization were synthetically compared to each other and evaluated: then. for a more rational approach. a research model was built and suggested by establishing the inclusive variables of the innovative nature of library organization and categorizing the types of such nature. Additionally. an empirical. analytical study on such a model was done. That is. paying regard to the fact that innovation has basically a close relation with the circumstantial factors of organization. synthetic, circumstantial relations were clarified. considering the external environmental factors and internal characteristics of organization. In the study. the innovation of library organization was seen in two parts i.e .. the feasible degree of technical innovation and the feasible degree of administrative innovation. Regarding the types of innovative implementation. according to the feasible degree of innovation, four types such as a stationary type. technic-oriented type, organization-oriented type. and technical-socio systematic type were classified. There were nine independent variables-i.e., the scale of organization. available resources of the organization, formalization, differentiation, specialization. decentralization, recognizant degree of the technical attribute. degree of response to the change of technical environment, and professional activities. There were three subordinate variables - i.e., technical innovation, administrative innovation. and the performance of organization. Through establishment of such variables, the factors which might influence the innovation of library organization were understood, and with the types of the innovative implementation of library organization being classified according to the feasible degree of innovation. the characteristics of library organization were reviewed in the light of each type. Also. the performance of library organization according to the types of the innovative implementation of library organization was analyzed. and the relations between the types of innovative implementation according to circumstantial variables and the performance of library organization were clarified. In order to clarify the adequacy of the research model in the methodology of empirical study, data were collected from 72 university libraries and 38 special libraries. and for a hypothetical test of the research model. an analysis of correlations, a stepwise regression analysis. and One Way ANOVA were utilized. The following are the major results or findings from the study 1) It appeared there is a trend that the bigger the scale of organization and available resources are, the more active the professional activity of the managerial class is, and the higher the recognizant degree of technical environment (recognizant degree of technical attributes and the degree of response t9 the change of technical environment) is, the higher the feasible degree of innovation becomes. 2) It appeared that among the variables influencing the feasible degree of technical innovation, the order from the variable influencing most was first, the recognizant degree of technical innovation: second, the available resources of organization: and third, professional activity. Regarding the variables influencing the feasible degree of administrative innovation from the most influential variable, it appeared they were the available resources of organization, the differentiation of organization. and the degree of response to the change of technical environment. 3) It appeared that the higher the educational level of the managerial class is, the more active the professional activity becomes. It seemed there is a trend that the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at the middle level(three years to six years of experience) was more active in research activity than the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at a higher level(more than ten years). Also, it appeared there is a trend that the lower the age of library managers is, the higher the recognizant degree of technical attributes becomes. and the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at the middle level (three years to six years of experience) recognized more affirmatively the technical aspect than the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at a higher level(more than 10 years). Also, it appeared that, when the activity of the professional association and research activity are active, the recognizant degree of technology becomes higher, and as a result. it influences the innovative nature of organization(the feasible degree of technical innovation and the feasible degree of administrative innovation). 4) As a result of the comparison and analysis of the characteristics of library organization according to the types of innovative implementation of library organization. it was indicated there is a trend that the larger the available resources of library organization, the higher the organic nature of organization such as differentiation. decentralization, etc., and the higher the level of the operation of system development, the more the type of the innovative implementation of library organization becomes the technical-socio systematic type which is higher both in the practical degrees of technical innovation and administrative innovation. 5) As a result of the comparison and analysis of the relations between the types of innovative implementation and the performance of organization, it appeared that the order from the highest performance of organization is the technical-socio systematic type, then the technic-oriented type, the organization­oriented type, and finally the stationary type which is lowest in such performance. That is, it demonstrated that, since the performance of library organization is highest in the library of the technical-socio systematic type while it is lowest in the library whose practical degrees in both technical innovation and administrative innovation are low, the performance of library organization differs significantly according to the types of innovative implementation of library organization. The present study has extracted the factors influencing innovation, classified systematically the types of innovative implementation, and inferred the synthetical, circumstantial correlations between the types and the performance of organization, and empirically inspected those factors. However, due to the present study's restrictive matters and the limit of the research design, results from the study should be more prudently interpreted. Also, the present study, as an investigative study of the types of innovative implementation, with few preceding studies, requires more complete hypothetical inference based on the results of the present study. In other words, if more systematical studies are given to understanding the relations, it will devote the suggestion and demonstration of a more useful theory.

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Clinical Experience of Three Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (비소세포성 폐암에서 3차원 입체조형 방사선 치료 성적)

  • Choi Eun Kyung;Lee Byong Yong;Kang One Chul;Nho Young Ju;Chung Weon Kuu;Ahn Seung Do;Kim Jong Hoon;Chang Hyesook
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : This prospective study has been conducted to assess the value of three dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT) for lung cancer and to determine its potential advantage over current treatment approaches. Specific aims of this study were to 1) find the most ideal 3DCRT technique 2) establish the maximum tolerance dose that can be delivered with 3DCRT and 3) identify patients at risk for development of radiation pneumonitis. Materials and Methods : Beginning in Nov. 1994, 95 patients with inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (stage I; 4, stage II; 1, stage IIIa; 14, stage IIIb; 76) were entered onto this 3D conformal trial Areas of known disease and elective nodal areas were initially treated to 45 Gy and then using 3DCRT technique 65 to 70 Gy of total dose were delivered to the gross disease. Sixty nine patients received 65 Gy of total dose and 26 received 70 Gy Seventy eight patients (82.1$\%$) also received concurrent MVP chemotherapy. 3DCRT plans were compared with 2D plans to assess the adequacy of dose delivery to target volume, dose volume histograms for normal tissue, and normal tissue complication Probabilities (NTCP). Results : Most of plans (78/95) were composed of non-coplanar multiple (4-8) fields. Coplanar segmented conformal therapy was used in 17 pateints, choosing the proper gantry angle which minimize normal lung exposure in each segment. 3DCRT gave the full dose to nearly 100$\%$ of the gross disease target volume in all patients. The mean NTCP for ipsilateral lung with 3DCRT (range; 0.17-0.43) was 68$\%$ of the mean NTCP with 2D treatment planning (range; 0.27-0.66). DVH analysis for heart showed that irradiated volume of heart could be significantly reduced by non-coplanar 3D approach especially in the case of left lower lobe lesion. Of 95 patients evaluable for response, 75 (79$\%$), showed major response including 25 (26$\%$) with complete responses and 50 (53$\%$) with partial responses. One and two rear overall survivals of stage III patients were 62.6$\%$ and 35.2$\%$ respectively. Twenty percent (19/95) of patients had pneumonitis; Eight patients had grade 1 pneumonitis and 11 other patients had grade 2. Comparison of the average of NTCP for lung showed a significant difference between patients with and without radiation pneumonitis. Average NTCP for Patients without complication was 62$\%$ of those with complications. Conclusions : This study showed that non-coplanar multiple fields (4-8) may be one of the ideal plans for 3DCRT for lung cancer. It also suggested that 3DCRT may provide superior delivery of high dose radiation with reduced risk to normal tissue and that NTCP can be used as a guideline for the dose escalation.

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Studies on the Directivity of Gokjungkyeong(Kyung Overlapped with Gok) which was specified in Byeokgye-ri, Yangpyeong-gun and the Hwaseo Lee, Hang-ro's Management in Byeokwon Garden (양평 벽계리에 설정된 곡중경(曲中景)의 지향성과 화서(華西) 이항로(李恒老)의 벽원(蘗園) 경영)

  • Jung, Woo-Jin;Rho, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.78-97
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    • 2016
  • The objectives of this study are to examine the context of the establishment of Suhoe Gugok, Byeokgye Gugok Vally, and Nosan Palkyung, which have been established in Seojong-myeon of Yangpyeong-gun, by literature review and site investigations, and to determine the sceneries of Byeokgye scenic site as enjoyed and managed during the period of Hwaseo Lee, Hang-ro(華西 李恒老). The results of the study are as follows. First, Byeokgye Gugok Vally(黃蘗九曲) and Nosan Palkyung(蘆山八景), which have been established after the period of Hwaseo and theorized to have been established around key scenic areas associated with Hwaseo's activities, the analysis results showed that they were collecting sceneries of modern times. The extensive overlap between Byeokgye Gugok Vally and concentrated scenic elements of Suhoe Gugok(水回九曲), and the artificial configuration from the end point of Suhoe Gugok to the beginning point of Nosan Palkyung, reveal the pattern of space conflict and hegemony between Byeokgyes of Suip-ri and Nomun-ri. This is likely to be caused by the conflict between the historicity of the group that enjoyed Byeokgye prior to Hwaso's period and the strong territoriality of the space filled with the image of Hwaseo. Second, Byeokgye Gugok Vally was the secondary spatial system created by selecting the most scenic sites in Suip-ri while expanding the area of Nosan Palkyung. After establishment of Byeokgye Gugok Vally, the spatial identity of the entire Byeokgyecheon area was effectively established. This was a "Hwaseo-oriented" move, including the complete exclusion of the scenic sites from the pre-Hwaseo period such as Cheongseo Gujang and Suhoe Gugok's Letters Carved on the Rock. Consequently, the entire Byeokgyecheon area was reorganized into a cultural scenic site with Heoseo's influence. Third, Fifth, creations of Gugok(九曲) to determine the lineage of the Hwaseo School from Juja(朱子) to Yulgok(栗谷) to Uam(尤庵) to Hwaseo is likely to be an opportunity of birth and external motivation of the establishment of new Gugok Palkyung. In other words, Nosan Palkyung and Byeokgye Gugok Vally are likely to have been created as a reaction to the change of the center of the Hwaseo School to Okgyedong, and with strategic orientation based on the motivation and needs such as creation of the connecting space between Mui Gugok, Gosan Gugok, and Okgye Gugok, and the elevation of Hwaseo's status. Fourth, from the Hwaseo's Li-centric point of view, all revered sites in Beokwon(蘗園) that he managed existed as the spatial creative work to experience the existence of "li" through the objects in the landscape and the boundary of the spirit of emptiness of the aesthetic self. This clearly shows how Byeokgye Gugok Vally or Nosan Palkyung must be defined, and furthermore, appreciated and approached, prior to discussing it as the space associated with Hwaseo. Fifth, Nosan Palkyung was composed of cultural scenic landscapes of Gokjungkyung(曲中景) with eight scenic sites where Hwaseo gave his teachings and spend time around, in the Byeokgye of Nomun-ri area of Byeokgye Gugok Vally. The sceneries is, however, collected by depending on Hwaseo's Letters Carved on the Rock and poetry. Consequently, an inner exuberance of Nosan Palkyung is satisfied beside Byeokgye Gugok Vally, but its conceptual adequacy leaves room for questions.

Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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