• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.589-597
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• 2021

단순회귀와 다중회귀에서 회귀계수의 의미는 차이가 있고 회귀계수의 추정값은 같지 않을 뿐 아니라 그 부호가 서로 다른 경우도 발생한다. 회귀모형에서 설명변수의 상대적 기여도의 파악은 회귀분석의 수행의 중요한 부분이다. 표준화 회귀모형에서 표준화 회귀계수는 해당 설명변수를 제외한 나머지 설명변수의 값이 고정되어있는 상황에서 설명변수가 표준편차만큼 증가하였을 때 반응변수가 표준편차를 기준으로 얼마나 변화했는가로 해석할 수 있지만 표준화 회귀계수의 크기가 각 설명변수의 상대적 중요도를 나타내는 척도라고 할 수 없음은 잘 알려져 있다. 본 논문에서는 다중회귀에서 회귀계수의 추정량을 상관계수와 결정계수의 함수로 나타내고 이를 추가적인 설명력과 추가적인 결정계수의 관점에서 생각해 본다. 또한 다양한 산점도에서의 상관계수와 회귀계수 추정값의 관계를 알아보고 설명변수가 두 개인 경우에 구체적으로 적용해 본다.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.69-76
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• 2019

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effectiveness of Offcial Development Assistance (ODA) in recipient countries' economy. ODA is designed to mitigate poverty and stimulate economic growth in the developing countries. We classify total ODA into bilateral ODA and multilateral ODA depending on the number of donor countries. If the ODA flows from one donor country to one recipient country, it is classified as bilateral ODA. If the multiple countries simultaneously become donor countries through the international organizations such as United Nations and World Bank, it is classified as multilateral ODA. This paper compares the effect of bilateral ODA and multilateral ODA in determining recipient countries' economic development, and tries to provide policy implications to Korean ODA. Research design, data, and methodology - Our primary explanatory variables are bilateral and multilateral ODA. Private credit in recipient countries is adopted as additional explanatory variables to capture the level of financial development in recipient countries. We measure the ODA effectiveness using economic growth and quality of life of the recipient countries as the dependent variable. We collect 142 recipient countries' data from OECD statistics, during the period from 1970-2014. Panel least squares estimation with country fixed effect is employed as the empirical model. Results - Our results support that ODA variable has a negatively significant impact on recipient countries' economic growth, while it is positively correlated with human development index. Recipient countries' private credit is positively correlated with economic growth and human development index. The interaction variable of ODA and financial development turns out to be significant in general. We find that the positive effect of ODA depends on recipient countries' financial market development and this effect is stronger in multilateral aid than bilateral one. Conclusions - From the analysis, we have confirmed that the recipient countries financial development is the necessity condition to achieve positive effect of ODA. Based on these results, we suggest that Korean government should increase the share of multilateral funding and pay attention to recipient countries' financial market development to maximize the effectiveness of ODA.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.351-359
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• 2013

본 연구는 사회인구학적 특성, 퇴원특성, 의료기관특성이 정신분열병 환자의 재원일수에 영향을 미치는 요인을 규명하고자 시행하였다. 2004~2008년의 퇴원심층조사 자료 중에서 주진단이 정신분열병인 2,239명의 환자가 최종 연구대상이었다. SPSS 18.0 프로그램을 이용하여 사회인구학적 특성, 퇴원특성, 의료기관 특성을 설명변수로 하고, 재원일수를 종속변수로 구분하여 설명변수를 순차적으로 투입한 위계적 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과 사회인구학적 특성이 가장 큰 설명력을 나타냈으며, 퇴원특성보다는 병원특성 설명변수를 추가할 경우 설명력의 변화가 크게 나타났다. 재원일수에 주요하게 영향을 미치는 요인은 남자, 의료급여1종, 충청도, 병상규모 등으로 밝혀졌다. 본 연구는 이차 자료를 이용하였기 때문에 정신분열병 환자의 재원일수를 보다 잘 설명할 수 있는 추가 변수의 제한이 있었다. 그럼에도 불구하고 국가적 차원의 대규모 데이터를 분석하여 규명하였다는데 의의가 있다. 재원일수의 감축 노력은 환자 개인특성뿐 아니라 병원특성에 더욱 중점을 두고 국가적 노력이 필요함을 제안한다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.127-135
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• 2009

한국의 경제규모가 꾸준히 커감에 따라 가정, 건물, 공장 등에서 필요로 하는 전력량이 지속적으로 증가하고 있다. 전력공급의 안정화를 위해서는 최대전력량보다 전력공급능력이 높아야 한다. 월별 최대전력량을 잘 설명할 수 있는 통계모형을 찾기 위해 Winters 모형, 분해 시계열모형, ARMA 모형, 설명 변수를 통해 추세성분과 계절성분을 교정한 모형을 살펴보았다. 모형의 예측력 비교 기준으로 모형적합으로부터 구한 RMSE와 MAPE가 사용되었다. 여름철 최대전력량을 예측하기 위해 평균기온과 열대야 일수를 설명 변수로 갖는 시계열 모형이 가장 우수하였다. 아울러 외부요인을 갖는 극단분포 모형을 이용한 분석을 시도하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.2759-2769
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• 2018

The behavioral finance view on the existence of asset pricing anomalies is based on two factors: investors' sentiment and limits to arbitrage. This paper tries to examine the effect of investors' sentiment on the stock price in the Korean stock market. In order to measure investors' sentiment, we constructed the sentiment index using principal component of five sentiment variables. By using sentiment index as an additional independent variable to three risk factors, impacts of the sentiment index on individual stocks and 25 portfolios sorted by BM-size are examined. Main results found are as follows: 1) not only all three risk factors show positive impacts on the return of individual stock, but also the sentiment index has a positive impact. SI alone explains 15% of individual return variation. 2) among four independent variables, the most important factor turned out to be the market risk factor and investors' sentiment has better explanatory power on stock price than the size effect. 3) after controlling the market risk factor, the coefficient of the sentiment index for the smallest size and highest book/market value portfolios is significantly positive. 4) all the coefficients of the sentiment index for 25 portfolios sorted by BM-size have significant positive value after controlling size or (and) value.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제12권
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• pp.137-160
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• 2003

The association between accounting earnings and the stock price of an entity is the subject that has been most heavily researched during the past 25 years in accounting literature. Researcher's common finding is that there are positive relationships between accounting earnings and stock prices. However, the explanatory power of accounting earnings which was measured by $R^2$ of regression functions used was rather low. To be connected with these low results, The prior studies propose that there will be additional information, errors in variables. This study investigates empirically determinants of earnings response coefficients(ERCs), which measure the correlation between earnings and stock prices, using earnings level / change, as the dependent variable in the return/earnings regression. Specifically, the thesis tests whether the factors such as earnings persistence, growth, systematic risk, image, information asymmetry and firm size. specially, the determinable variables of ERC are explained in detail. The image / information asymmetry variables are selected to be connected with additional information stand point, The debt / growth variables are selected to be connected with errors in variables. In this study, The sample of firms, listed in Korean Stock Exchange was drawn from the KIS-DATA and was required to meet the following criteria: (1) Annual accounting earnings were available over the 1986-1999 period on the KIS-FAS to allow computation of variables parameter; (2) sufficient return data for estimation of market model parameters were available on the KIS-SMAT month returns: (3) each firm had a fiscal year ending in December throughout the study period. Implementation of these criteria yielded a sample of 1,141 firm-year observation over the 10-year(1990-1999) period. A conventional regression specification would use stock returns(abnormal returns) as a dependent variable and accounting earnings(unexpected earnings) changes interacted with other factors as independent variables. In this study, I examined the relation between other factors and the RRC by using reverse regression. For an empirical test, eight hypotheses(including six lower-hypotheses) were tested. The results of the performed empirical analysis can be summarized as follows; The first, The relationship between persistence of earnings and ERC have significance of each by itself, this result accord with one of the prior studies. The second, The relationship between growth and ERC have not significance. The third, The relationship between image and ERC have significance of each by itself, but a forecast code doesn't present. This fact shows that image cost does not effect on market management share, is used to prevent market occupancy decrease. The fourth, The relationship between information asymmetry variable and ERC have significance of each by. The fifth, The relationship between systematic risk$(\beta)$ and ERC have not significance. The sixth, The relationship between debt ratio and ERC have significance of each by itself, but a forecast code doesn't present. This fact is judged that it is due to the effect of financial leverage effect and a tendency of interest.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.685-696
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• 2021

경제활동인구조사는 고용 관련 통계를 생성하는 국가조사로서, 국민의 경활상태(취업/실업/비경활)를 파악하는 것이 주요 목적이다. 정확한 통계를 내기 위해 무응답률을 낮추는 것이 중요하고, 이미 발생한 무응답을 보완하기 위한 방법으로 무응답 대체가 가능하다. 경제활동인구조사는 응답 방식이 순차적 흐름을 따라가기 때문에 구조적인 무응답이 존재한다. 또한 전체 가구원내 무응답 항목이 하나라도 있으면 해당 가족 구성원 전체를 무응답 처리하기에 최종 자료에는 항목 무응답이 아닌 단위 무응답만 존재한다는 특징이 있다. 본 연구에서는 구조적 무응답 이해 및 연계자료를 통한 과거 자료의 활용 등을 통해 기존의 방법보다 효과적인 무응답 대체 모형을 제시하고자 한다. 대체 모형의 성능을 일치도/비일치도를 기반으로 평가한다. 이를 위해, 2019년 11월 경제활동인구조사 자료를 기반으로 모의실험을 실시한다. 총 59,996명의 응답자 중 일부를 랜덤하게 선택한 뒤, 경활상태를 판정하는데 결정적인 설명변수 6개와 경활상태를 무응답 처리한다. 기존 무응답 대체 모형에서 사용하였던 설명 변수 이외에 산업변수와 종사상지위 변수를 추가함으로써 모형을 개선한다. 이는 과거자료의 연계 및 활용을 가정한 것으로, 기존의 모형모다 성능이 향상되는 것을 확인한다. 또한, 경활상태별 무응답자 수에 대한 다양한 시나리오를 고려한다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제13권9호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Purpose - This paper's aim is to investigate whether or not gross profitability explains the cross-sectional variation of the stock returns in the Korean stock market. Gross profitability is an alternative profitability measure proposed by Novy-Marx in 2013 to predict cross-sectional variation of stock returns in the US. He shows that the gross profitability adds explanatory power to the Fama-French 3 factor model. Interestingly, gross profitability is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. By confirming the gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market, we may provide some implications regarding the well-known value premium. In addition, our empirical results may provide opportunities for the fund distribution industry to promote brand new styles of funds. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical analysis, we collect monthly market prices of all the companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) of the Korea Exchanges (KRX). Our sample period covers July1994 to December2014. The data from the company financial statementsare provided by the financial information company WISEfn. First, using Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression, we investigate the relation between gross profitability and stock return performance. For robustness in analyzing the performance of the gross profitability strategy, we consider value weighted portfolio returns as well as equally weighted portfolio returns. Next, using Fama-French 3 factor models, we examine whether or not the gross profitability strategy generates excess returns when firmsize and the book-to-market ratio are controlled. Finally, we analyze the effect of firm size and the book-to-market ratio on the gross profitability strategy. Results - First, through the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression, we show that gross profitability has almost the same explanatory power as the book-to-market ratio in explaining the cross-sectional variation of the Korean stock market. Second, we find evidence that gross profitability is a statistically significant variable for explaining cross-sectional stock returns when the size and the value effect are controlled. Third, we show that gross profitability, which is positively correlated with stock returns and firm size, is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. From the perspective of portfolio management, our results imply that since the gross profitability strategy is a distinctive growth strategy, value strategies can be improved by hedging with the gross profitability strategy. Conclusions - Our empirical results confirm the existence of a gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market. From the perspective of the fund distribution industry, the gross profitability portfolio is worthy of attention. Since the value strategy portfolio returns are negatively correlated with the gross profitability strategy portfolio returns, by mixing both portfolios, investors could be better off without additional risk. However, the profitable firms are dissimilar from the value firms (high book-to-market ratio firms); therefore, an alternative factor model including gross profitability may help us understand the economic implications of the well-known anomalies such as value premium, momentum, and low volatility. We reserve these topics for future research.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.707-716
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• 2009

본 연구는 일부 소방직공무원들의 스트레스 및 피로 수준을 파악하고, 스트레스와 피로에 관련된 요인을 구명하고자 청주시의 소방공무원 262명을 대상으로 구조화된 무기명 자기기입식 설문지(self-administrated questionnaire)를 이용한 설문조사를 실시하였다. 연구결과 전체 조사대상 소방공무원들의 사회심리적 스트레스 수준은 잠재적 스트레스군이 12.2%, 고위험스트레스군이 87.5%이었으며, 건강군은 한 명도 없었다 피로수준은 중앙값을 기준으로 구분하였을 경우, 낮은 군이 51.1%, 높은 군이 48.9%를 차지하였다. 단계별 다변량 회귀분석 결과 사회심리적 스트레스에 영향을 미치는 요인으로는 주관적인 건강상태, 직장생활만족도, 직무요구도, 음주상태 등이 선정되었으며, 피로수준에 영향을 미치는 요인으로는 주관적 건강상태, 규칙적인 운동여부 등이 선정되었다. 이상의 연구결과는 소방공무원의 사회심리학적 스트레스나 피로수준이 대단히 높은 것을 시사하며 여러 요인들이 관여하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 따라서 소방공무원들의 스트레스나 피로를 감소시키기기 위한 건강증진프로그램의 개발 및 시행이 필요할 것으로 생각된다.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.349-356
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• 2014

Background: This study aimed to explore factors associated with the non-use of beneficiaries of long-term care insurance services for the elderly in Jeollanam-do Province by analyzing a dataset obtained from National Health Insurance Service. Methods: The study sample consists of 1,663 individuals who were evaluated as eligible for long-term care insurance services in Jeollanam-do Province during the period of July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2009. As a dependent variable, the non-use of the service was defined as one when a beneficiary had used it once or more times during one year after he or she was evaluated as eligible and as zero otherwise. A proportion analysis was conducted to describe characteristics of study sample. Chi-square tests were used to compare general characteristics between beneficiaries who had used the services and those who had not used them. Multiple logistic regressions were performed by three models including additional sets of explanatory variables such as socio-demographic characteristics, health conditions, and economic status. Results: Main results are summarized as follows. The proportion of beneficiaries who had not used the service was 14.5% of all beneficiaries. According to the results from the model using all explanatory variables, the factors associated with the non-use of the services were residence location, dwelling place, type of desired service, level of care needs, and instrumental activities of daily life limitations. Conclusion: In particular, regarding the type of desired service, the cash benefit showed a high likelihood of the non-use of the service; it had an odds ratio (OR) of 50.212 (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.00-105.04) compared with home service. In case of dwelling place, a hospital showed also a high likelihood of the non-use with an OR of 20.71 (95% CI, 10.12-42.44) compared with home.