• Title/Summary/Keyword: a error model

Search Result 7,371, Processing Time 0.036 seconds

Analysis of Export Behaviors of Busan, Incheon and Gwangyang Port (부산항, 인천항, 광양항의 수출행태분석)

  • Mo, Soowon;Chung, Hongyoung;Lee, Kwangbae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.32 no.3
    • /
    • pp.35-46
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study investigates the export behavior of Busan, Gwangyang and Incheon Port. The monthly data cover the period from January 2000 to December 2015. We employ six export functions composed of various exchange rates and industrial production index. This paper finds that the nominal effective exchange rate is more appropriate for explaining the export behaviors of the three ports, regardless of the narrow and wide indices which comprise 26 and 61 economies for the nominal and real indices respectively. This paper tests whether exchange rate and industrial production are stationary or not, rejecting the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. The error-correction model is estimated to find that both Gwangyang and Incheon ports are much slower than Busan port in adjusting the short-run disequilibrium and Gwangyang port is a little slower than Incheon port. The rolling regressions show that the influence of exchange rate as well as industrial production tends to decrease in all of three ports. The variance decomposition, however, shows that the export variables are very exogenous and the export of Busan Port is the least exogenous and that of Gwangyang Port the most. This result indicates that the economic variables such as exchange rate and economic activity affect the export of Busan Port more strongly than that of Gwangyang and Incheon Port.

Quality Improvement Method on Grammatical Errors of Information System Audit Report (정보시스템 감리보고서의 문법적 오류에 대한 품질 향상 방안)

  • Lee, Don Hee;Lee, Gwan Hyung;Moon, Jin Yong;Kim, Jeong Joon
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.211-219
    • /
    • 2019
  • Accomplishing information system, techniques, methodology have been studied continuously and give much help to auditors who are using them. Additionally audit report which is the conclusion of accomplishing ISA(information system audit), has law of a basis and phase with ITA/EA Law(Electronic Government Law). This paper is for better quality of ISA report. But it has more errors about sentence and Grammatical structures. In this paper, to achieve quality improvement objectives, it is necessary to recognize the importance of an audit report by investigating on objectives, functionality, structures and usability of a report firstly, and a legal basis, the presence of report next. Several types of audit reports were chosen and the reports errors were divided into several categories and analyzed. After grasping reasons of those errors, the methods for fixing those errors and check-lists model was provided. And based on that foundation, the effectiveness validation about real audit reports was performed. The necessity for efforts to improve the quality of audit reports was emphasized and further research subject(AI Automatic tool) of this paper conclusion. We also expect this paper to be useful for the organization to improve on ISA in the future.

A Study on Life Cycle Cost According to Bridge Condition (교량 상태에 따른 생애주기비용 영향 분석)

  • Park, Jun-Yong;Lee, Keesei
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.802-809
    • /
    • 2021
  • To cope with the increasing maintenance costs due to aging, the maintenance cost was evaluated from the perspective of asset management. The maintenance cost can be predicted based on the condition of the bridge, and the life cycle cost is used as an index. In general, the condition of a bridge has a wide distribution characteristic depending on the deterioration, load, and material characteristics. In this paper, to evaluate the effect of the bridge conditions on the life cycle cost, condition prediction models were constructed considering the service life, deterioration rate, and inspection error, which are the main variables of the bridge condition and life cycle cost calculation. In addition, condition prediction models were constructed based on the distribution of the health index to estimate the upper and lower bounds of the life cycle costs that can occur in individual bridges. Life cycle cost analysis showed that the life cycle cost differed significantly according to the condition of the bridge. Accordingly, research will be needed to increase the reliability of predicting the life cycle cost of individual bridges.

Comparative Analysis by Batch Size when Diagnosing Pneumonia on Chest X-Ray Image using Xception Modeling (Xception 모델링을 이용한 흉부 X선 영상 폐렴(pneumonia) 진단 시 배치 사이즈별 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Ji-Yul;Ye, Soo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
    • /
    • v.15 no.4
    • /
    • pp.547-554
    • /
    • 2021
  • In order to quickly and accurately diagnose pneumonia on a chest X-ray image, different batch sizes of 4, 8, 16, and 32 were applied to the same Xception deep learning model, and modeling was performed 3 times, respectively. As a result of the performance evaluation of deep learning modeling, in the case of modeling to which batch size 32 was applied, the results of accuracy, loss function value, mean square error, and learning time per epoch showed the best results. And in the accuracy evaluation of the Test Metric, the modeling applied with batch size 8 showed the best results, and the precision evaluation showed excellent results in all batch sizes. In the recall evaluation, modeling applied with batch size 16 showed the best results, and for F1-score, modeling applied with batch size 16 showed the best results. And the AUC score evaluation was the same for all batch sizes. Based on these results, deep learning modeling with batch size 32 showed high accuracy, stable artificial neural network learning, and excellent speed. It is thought that accurate and rapid lesion detection will be possible if a batch size of 32 is applied in an automatic diagnosis study for feature extraction and classification of pneumonia in chest X-ray images using deep learning in the future.

Early Prediction of Fine Dust Concentration in Seoul using Weather and Fine Dust Information (기상 및 미세먼지 정보를 활용한 서울시의 미세먼지 농도 조기 예측)

  • HanJoo Lee;Minkyu Jee;Hakdong Kim;Taeheul Jun;Cheongwon Kim
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.285-292
    • /
    • 2023
  • Recently, the impact of fine dust on health has become a major topic. Fine dust is dangerous because it can penetrate the body and affect the respiratory system, without being filtered out by the mucous membrane in the nose. Since fine dust is directly related to the industry, it is practically impossible to completely remove it. Therefore, if the concentration of fine dust can be predicted in advance, pre-emptive measures can be taken to minimize its impact on the human body. Fine dust can travel over 600km in a day, so it not only affects neighboring areas, but also distant regions. In this paper, wind direction and speed data and a time series prediction model were used to predict the concentration of fine dust in Seoul, and the correlation between the concentration of fine dust in Seoul and the concentration in each region was confirmed. In addition, predictions were made using the concentration of fine dust in each region and in Seoul. The lowest MAE (mean absolute error) in the prediction results was 12.13, which was about 15.17% better than the MAE of 14.3 presented in previous studies.

Validation of Satellite Scatterometer Sea-Surface Wind Vectors (MetOp-A/B ASCAT) in the Korean Coastal Region (한반도 연안해역에서 인공위성 산란계(MetOp-A/B ASCAT) 해상풍 검증)

  • Kwak, Byeong-Dae;Park, Kyung-Ae;Woo, Hye-Jin;Kim, Hee-Young;Hong, Sung-Eun;Sohn, Eun-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.42 no.5
    • /
    • pp.536-555
    • /
    • 2021
  • Sea-surface wind is an important variable in ocean-atmosphere interactions, leading to the changes in ocean surface currents and circulation, mixed layers, and heat flux. With the development of satellite technology, sea-surface winds data retrieved from scatterometer observation data have been used for various purposes. In a complex marine environment such as the Korean Peninsula coast, scatterometer-observed sea-surface wind is an important factor for analyzing ocean and atmospheric phenomena. Therefore, the validation results of wind accuracy can be used for diverse applications. In this study, the sea-surface winds derived from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) mounted on MetOp-A/B (METeorological Operational Satellite-A/B) were validated compared to in-situ wind measurements at 16 marine buoy stations around the Korean Peninsula from January to December 2020. The buoy winds measured at a height of 4-5 m from the sea surface were converted to 10-m neutral winds using the LKB (Liu-Katsaros-Businger) model. The matchup procedure produced 5,544 and 10,051 collocation points for MetOp-A and MetOp-B, respectively. The root mean square errors (RMSE) were 1.36 and 1.28 m s-1, and bias errors amounted to 0.44 and 0.65 m s-1 for MetOp-A and MetOp-B, respectively. The wind directions of both scatterometers exhibited negative biases of -8.03° and -6.97° and RMSE values of 32.46° and 36.06° for MetOp-A and MetOp-B, respectively. These errors were likely associated with the stratification and dynamics of the marine-atmospheric boundary layer. In the seas around the Korean Peninsula, the sea-surface winds of the ASCAT tended to be more overestimated than the in-situ wind speeds, particularly at weak wind speeds. In addition, the closer the distance from the coast, the more the amplification of error. The present results could contribute to the development of a prediction model as improved input data and the understanding of air-sea interaction and impact of typhoons in the coastal regions around the Korean Peninsula.

Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.157-178
    • /
    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

The Factors Influencing the Asthenopia of Emmetropia with Phoria (사위를 가진 정시안의 안정피로에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Kim, Jung-Hee;Lee, Dong-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.71-82
    • /
    • 2005
  • The aim of this study was to provide fundamental data for the factors influencing the asthenopia of emmetropia with phoria and alleviation of asthenopia. A total of 348 subjects, aged between 19 and 30 years old, who had no strabismus, an eye trouble or whole body disease, were examined using corrected visual acuity, corrected diopter, stereopsis and suppression tests from September of 2002 to September of 2004. We excluded 21 subjects for the following reasons: if they had an amblyopia affecting binocular vision or inaccurate data. After these exclusions, 327 subjects remained. We then individually measured the refractive error correction, pupillary distance, optical center distance, phoria, convergence, accommodation and the AC/A as well as the asthenopia during binocular vision using a questionnaire. After analysis of factors affecting asthenopia, we also examined the reductive effect of a prism on the asthenopia in subjects who had asthenopia. To determine the factors affecting asthenopia during binocular vision, statistic analyses were carried out using the Chi-square test and the multivariate Logistic regression model. The results of this study were as follow. For asthenopia during near binocular vision of emmetropia with phoria, in case of the lower the accommodation and convergence, a significantly higher rate of asthenopia was observed (p<0.001). When the AC/A is lower, the higher the rate of asthenopia was observed but not significantly and there was no association between phoria and asthenopia. When the multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine factors affecting binocular vision of emmetropia with phoria, in case of the lower accommodation and convergence, a significantly higher rate of asthenopia was observed. when the phoria is esophoria or higher exophoria, or when the AC/A is lower than normal, the higher the rate of asthenopia was observed but not significantly and there was no association between phoria. AC/A and asthenopia. Therefore accommodation and convergence could be predictive factors for asthenopia during near distance binocular vision. Prism was used among' subjects who had asthenopia during near distance binocular vision, the symptom of asthenopia was eased up to 74.2% in emmetropia with phoria.

  • PDF

Estimating Grain Weight and Grain Nitrogen Content with Temperature, Solar Radiation and Growth Traits During Grain-Filling Period in Rice (등숙기 온도 및 일사량과 생육형질을 이용한 벼 종실중 및 종실질소함량 추정)

  • Lee, Chung-Kuen;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Son, Ji-Young;Yoon, Young-Hwan;Seo, Jong-Ho;Kwon, Young-Up;Shin, Jin-Chul;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
    • /
    • v.55 no.4
    • /
    • pp.275-283
    • /
    • 2010
  • This experiment was conducted to construct process models to estimate grain weight (GW) and grain nitrogen content (GN) in rice. A model was developed to describe the dynamic pattern of GW and GN during grain-filling period considering their relationships with temperature, solar radiation and growth traits such as LAI, shoot dry-weight, shoot nitrogen content, grain number during grain filling. Firstly, maximum grain weight (GWmax) and maximum grain nitrogen content (GNmax) equation was formulated in relation to Accumulated effective temperature (AET) ${\times}$ Accumulated radiation (AR) using boundary line analysis. Secondly, GW and GN equation were created by relating the difference between GW and GWmax and the difference between GN and GNmax, respectively, with growth traits. Considering the statistics such as coefficient of determination and relative root mean square of error and number of predictor variables, appropriate models for GW and GN were selected. Model for GW includes GWmax determined by AET ${\times}$ AR, shoot dry weight and grain number per unit land area as predictor variables while model for GN includes GNmax determined by AET ${\times}$ AR, shoot N content and grain number per unit land area. These models could explain the variations of GW and GN caused not only by variations of temperature and solar radiation but also by variations of growth traits due to different sowing date, nitrogen fertilization amount and row spacing with relatively high accuracy.

A Study on Estimating Rice Yield in DPRK Using MODIS NDVI and Rainfall Data (MODIS NDVI와 강수량 자료를 이용한 북한의 벼 수량 추정 연구)

  • Hong, Suk Young;Na, Sang-Il;Lee, Kyung-Do;Kim, Yong-Seok;Baek, Shin-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.31 no.5
    • /
    • pp.441-448
    • /
    • 2015
  • Lack of agricultural information for food supply and demand in Democratic People's republic Korea(DPRK) make people sometimes confused for right and timely decision for policy support. We carried out a study to estimate paddy rice yield in DPRK using MODIS NDVI reflecting rice growth and climate data. Mean of MODIS $NDVI_{max}$ in paddy rice over the country acquired and processed from 2002 to 2014 and accumulated rainfall collected from 27 weather stations in September from 2002 to 2014 were used to estimated paddy rice yield in DPRK. Coefficient of determination of the multiple regression model was 0.44 and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) was 0.27 ton/ha. Two-way analysis of variance resulted in 3.0983 of F ratio and 0.1008 of p value. Estimated milled rice yield showed the lowest value as 2.71 ton/ha in 2007, which was consistent with RDA rice yield statistics and the highest value as 3.54 ton/ha in 2006, which was not consistent with the statistics. Scatter plot of estimated rice yield and the rice yield statistics implied that estimated rice yield was higher when the rice yield statistics was less than 3.3 ton/ha and lower when the rice yield statistics was greater than 3.3 ton/ha. Limitation of rice yield model was due to lower quality of climate and statistics data, possible cloud contamination of time-series NDVI data, and crop mask for rice paddy, and coarse spatial resolution of MODIS satellite data. Selection of representative areas for paddy rice consisting of homogeneous pixels and utilization of satellite-based weather information can improve the input parameters for rice yield model in DPRK in the future.