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Compressed Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Latecomer

  • Inyong Shin;Hyunho Kim
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.35-77
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to solve the entangled loop between demographic transition (DT) and economic growth by analyzing cross-country data. We undertake a national-level group analysis to verify the compressed transition of demographic variables over time. Assuming that the LA (latecomer advantage) on DT over time exists, we verify that the DT of the latecomer is compressed by providing a formal proof of LA on DT over income. As a DT has the double-kinked functions of income, we check them in multiple aspects: early maturation, leftward threshold, and steeper descent under a contour map and econometric methods. We find that the developing countries (the latecomer) have speedy DT (CDT, compressed DT) as well as speedy income such that DT of the latecomers starts at lower levels of income, lasts for a shorter period, and finishes at the earlier stage of economic development compared to that of developed countries (the early mover). To check the balance of DT, we classify countries into four groups of DT---balanced, slow, unilateral, and rapid transition countries. We identify that the main causes of rapid transition are due to the strong family planning programs of the government. Finally, we check the effect of latecomer's CDT on economic growth inversely: we undertake the simulation of the CDT effect on economic growth and the aging process for the latecomer. A worrying result is that the CDT of the latecomer shows a sharp upturn of the working-age population, followed by a sharp downturn in a short period. Compared to early-mover countries, the latecomer countries cannot buy more time to accommodate the workable population for the period of demographic bonus and prepare their aging societies for demographic onus. Thus, we conclude that CDT is not necessarily advantageous to developing countries. These outcomes of the latecomer's CDT can be re-interpreted as follows. Developing countries need power sources to pump up economic development, such as the following production factors: labor, physical and financial capital, and economic systems. As for labor, the properties of early maturation and leftward thresholds on DTs of the latecomer mean that demographic movement occurs at an unusually early stage of economic development; this is similar to a plane that leaks fuel before or just before take-off, with the result that it no longer flies higher or farther. What is worse, the property of steeper descent represents the falling speed of a plane so that it cannot be sustained at higher levels, and then plummets to all-time lows.

Design and Implementation of Sensor-based Secondary Vehicle Accident Prevention System (센서 기반의 차량 2차사고 방지 시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Lim, Kyung-Gyun;Kim, Gea-Hee;Jeong, Seon-Mi;Mun, Hyung-Jin;Kim, Chang-Geun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.313-321
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    • 2017
  • Traffic accidents in the country have steadily increased. Although IOT technologies have been applied so as to prevent the primary accident, practical solutions to prevent the secondary accident have not been suggested. A general guideline is simply recommended. In this paper, utilizing existing communication technology, we implement a proposed model and its simulation to prevent the secondary accident. When it is possible for a driver to secure visibility, the secondary accident can be prevented; In areas like tunnel, mountain terrain, and curve road with heavy traffic, where the driver has difficulty in securing the visibility, the secondary accident rates after the primary accident have been increasing. Therefore, we implement an accident prevention system that determines the primary accident utilizing sensor technology and prevents the secondary accident communicating through V2V or V2I. After the simulation, we found that the proposed model and the existing model made no difference with regard to the secondary accident rates when the visibility of the driver is secured; With the application of the proposed model, however, the accident rates decreased for 3-7 percent even though the visibility and communication were not secured.

Transfer of R plasmids of Bacterial Isolates and Their Cloned R Genes in Natural Wastewater Environments (I) -Cloning of $Km^rCm^r$Gene- (하폐수의 자연환경에서 R plasmid와 재조합 유전자의 전이특성( I ) -$Km^rCm^r$유전자의 클로닝-)

  • 김치경;이성기
    • Microbiology and Biotechnology Letters
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.447-453
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    • 1989
  • In order to study the transfer of antibiotics resistance genes of the genetically cloned bacteria in water environments, DK1 strain, which is resistant to kanamycin (Km), chloramphenicol (Cm), streptomycin (Sm), and sulfadiazine (Su), was selected from the Gram-negative bacterial isolates from wastewater. One of 4 plasmids harboured in the DK1 strain was found to possess Km$^{${\gamma}$}$Cm$^{${\gamma}$}$ gene and be about 68 kb in size, and it was designated as pDK101. The plasmid of pDK101 was also found to have 16, 32, and 6 restriction sites for EcoRI. .PstI, and SalI, respectively. From the digestion fragments of pDK101 plasmid and pKT230 used as a vector by EcoRI restriction endonuclease, pDT309 and pDT529 were constructed as chimeric plasmids which possess Km$^{${\gamma}$}$Cm$^{${\gamma}$}$ gene and are 30.9 and 52.9 kb in size, respectively. When the chimeric plasmids were trasformed into E. coli C600 or E. coli HB101, transformants of DKC601, DKC602, DKH102, and DKH103 were obtained as cloned bacterial cells. The Km$^{${\gamma}$}$Cm$^{${\gamma}$}$ genes were well expressed in those cloned cells and the chimeric plasmids were clearly detected in the cloned cells of DKC601 and DKH103.

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Predicting ground condition ahead of tunnel face utilizing electrical resistivity applicable to shield TBM (Shield TBM에 적용 가능한 전기비저항 기반 터널 굴착면 전방 예측기술)

  • Park, Jin-Ho;Lee, Kang-Hyun;Shin, Young-Jin;Kim, Jae-Young;Lee, In-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.599-614
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    • 2014
  • When tunnelling with TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine), accessibility to tunnel face is very limited because tunnel face is mostly occupied by a bunch of machines. Existing techniques that can predict ground condition ahead of TBM tunnel are extremely limited. In this study, the TBM Resistivity Prediction (TRP) system has been developed for predicting anomalous zone ahead of tunnel face utilizing electrical resistivity. The applicability and prediction accuracy of the developed system has been verified by performing field tests at subway tunnel construction site in which an EPB (Earth Pressure Balanced) shield TBM was used for tunnelling work. The TRP system is able to predicts the location, thickness and electrical properties of anomalous zone by performing inverse analysis using measured resistivity of the ground. To make field tests possible, an apparatus was devised to attach electrode to tunnel face through the chamber. The electrode can be advanced from the chamber to the tunnel face to fully touch the ground in front of the tunnel face. In the 1st field test, none of the anomalous zone was predicted, because the rock around the tunnel face has the same resistivity and permittivity with the rock ahead of tunnel face. In the 2nd field test, 5 m thick anomalous zone was predicted with lower permittivity than that of the rock around the tunnel face. The test results match well with the ground condition predicted, respectively, from geophysical exploration, or directly obtained either from drilling boreholes or from daily observed muck condition.

A Study on a Korean-Translated Version of the Pediatric Volitional Questionnaire (PVQ) (Pediatric Volitional Questionnaire의 국내적용을 위한 번역연구)

  • Ra, Dae-Yeop;Chang, Ki-Yeon;Kong, Myung-Ja;Lee, Sun-Wook
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Sensory Integration
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.34-49
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    • 2018
  • Objective : This study aimed to examine the psychometric properties of Korean version of Pediatric Volitional Questionnaire (PVQ-K) using classical test theory. Methods : For the translation of Pediatric Volitional Questionnaire (PVQ), as recommended in the literature, four-stage translation method was used. For the psychometric properties of Korean version of the Pediatric Volitional Questionnaire (PVQ-K), internal consistency reliability, content validity, and construct validity of the test using the known groups method and convergent and divergent methods were examined. For the recruitment of participants, a convenience sampling method is used. Participants of this study were 10 children with neuro-developmental disabilities hospitalized two different rehabilitations center and 10 children with typical development living in Daejeon, South Korea. All 20 participants were in aged from two to five years. Results : In terms of the content validity index, it was over 0.78, confirmed by nine experts of children development. PVQ-K successfully discriminated the scores of children with typical development from those with neurodevelopmental disabilities (p < .05). It is found that there is significant correlations between achievement stage of PVQ-K and the Korean Developmental Screening Test for Infants & Children (K-DTS)(.652 ~ .799 for subcategory, .706 for total scale). The internal consistency was .944 (Cronbach's ${\alpha}$). In qualitative content analysis, it was examined that how Korean children behave and respond in the environment, and how children's volition was strengthened or weakened by the environment. Conclusion : The results propose that PVQ-K can be a useful occupation-focused measure. This study recommend further study on PVQ-K with larger samples combined with the item-response theory approach.