• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.43-49
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• 2010

This study deals with the traffic accident of the Cheongju arterial link sections. The purpose of the study is to develop the traffic accident model. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the ZAM(zero-altered model) model using the accident data of arterial roads devided by 322 small link sections. The main results analyzed by ZIP(zero inflated Poisson model) and ZINB(zero inflated negative binomial model) which are the methods of ZAM, are as follows. First, the evaluation of various developed models by the Vuong statistic and t statistic for overdispersion parameter ${\alpha}$ shows that ZINB is analyzed to be optimal among Poisson, NB, ZIP(zero-inflated Poisson) and ZINB regression models. Second, ZINB is evaluated to be statistically significant in view of t, ${\rho}$ and ${\rho}^2$ (0.63) values compared to other models. Finally, the accident factors of ZINB models are developed to be the traffic volume(ADT), number of entry/exit and length of median. The traffic volume(ADT) and the number of entry/exit are evaluated to be the '+' factors and the length of median to be '-' factor of the accident.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.951-961
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian inference using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) method for the zero inflated negative binomial(ZINB) regression model. The proposed model allows the regression model for zero inflation probability as well as the regression model for the mean of the dependent variable. This extends the work of Jang et al. (2010) to the fully defiend ZINB regression model. In addition, we apply the proposed method to a real data example, and compare the efficiency with the zero inflated Poisson model using the DIC. Since the DIC of the ZINB is smaller than that of the ZIP, the ZINB model shows superior performance over the ZIP model in zero inflated count data with overdispersion.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.49-57
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• 2011

This study deals with the traffic accident of arterial link sections in the case of Cheongju. The purpose of the study is to develop the traffic accident model by the function of arterial links. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using the accident data of main and minor arterial roads divided by 472 small link sections. The main results analyzed are as follows. First, as the t test on the accident characteristics of main and minor arterial roads shows that there are differences in the number of accident and EPDO(equivalent property damage only) between two roads, the development of models by function is analyzed to be appropriate. Second, it is analyzed that ZINB models are all statistically suitable to the number of accident and EPDO of main arterial roads. Third, the analysis shows that EPDOs of minor arterial roads fit to ZINB, and the number of the accident fit to ZIP model. Finally, the common variables of main arterial roads are evaluated to be the traffic volume and the number of inflection point, and those of minor be the average grade.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.101-108
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• 2012

This study deals with the traffic accidents of circular intersections in Korea. The goal of this study is to develop the traffic accident models using ZAM. The main results are as follows. First, in the case of 'violating the operational method of intersection', ZINB(zero-inflatednegative binomial) models were analyzed to be the best fit to the data. Second, in the case of' no maintaining the safe distance', ZINB models were also analyzed to be the best fit to the data. Finally, such the common variables as traffic volume and width of circular roadway were selected as the independent variables. The more traffic volume and the less width of circulatory roadway were evaluated to make the more accidents. Such the specific variables as the number of approach lanes and speed reduction facilities were selected as the explanatory variables. The more approach lanes and the less speed reduction facilities were evaluated to give the more accidents. This study might be expected to give some implications to the accident research on the circular intersections.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.50-70
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• 2012

This paper analyzes the factors that determine technology innovation in Korean manufacturing firms, focusing on the role of intra-firm knowledge diffusion and market strategy in patent production. For empirical analysis, zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression is applied to the 2009 Human Capital Corporate Panel data. The empirical findings confirm the critical role of intra-firm knowledge-sharing processes in technology innovation; firms with a market-leading strategy oriented to new product development also tend to be prolific in patent production.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.107-113
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• 2014

The goal of this study is to develop the accident models of motorcycle at roundabouts. In the pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using ZAM. The main results are as follows. First, the evaluation of various developed models by the Vuong statistic and over-dispersion parameter shows that ZINB is analyzed to be optimal among Poisson, NB, ZIP(zero-inflated Poisson) and ZINB regression models. Second, the traffic volume, width of central island and width of approach are evaluated to be important variables to the accidents. Finally, the common variables that affect to the accident are selected to be traffic volume and width of approach. This study might be expected to give some implications to the accident research on the roundabout by motorcycle.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.231-239
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• 2015

A Poisson model is the first choice for counts data. Quasi Poisson or negative binomial models are usually used in cases of over (or under) dispersed data. However, these models might be unsuitable if the data consist of excessive number of zeros (zero inflated data). For zero inflated counts data, Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) or Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) models are recommended to address the issue. In this paper, we further considered a situation where zero inflated data are spatially correlated. A mixed effect model with random effects that account for spatial autocorrelation is used to fit the data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.37-46
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• 2012

The number of traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers over the age of 65 has surged over the past ten years from 37,000 to 274,000 cases. The proportion of elderly drivers' accidents has jumped 3.1 times from 1.2% to 3.7% out of all traffic accidents, and traffic safety organizations are pursuing diverse measures to address the situation. Above all, connecting safety measures with an in-depth research on behavioral and physical characteristics of elderly drivers will prove vital. This study conducted an empirical research linking the driving characteristics and traffic accidents by elderly drivers based on the Driving Aptitude Test items and traffic accident data, which enabled the measurement of behavioral characteristics of elderly drivers. In developing the Influence Model, we applied the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model and selected an accident prediction model based on the Bayesian Influence in regards to the ZIP regression model and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model. According to the results of the AAE analysis, the ZIP regression model was more appropriate and it was found that three variables? prediction of velocity, diversion, and cognitive ability? had a relation of influence with traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.1-19
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• 2023

Bikes have recently emerged as an alternative to carbon neutrality. To understand the demand for public bikes, we endeavored to estimate travel frequency of public bike by considering the intermediate stops. Using the GPS trajectory data of 'Ttareungyi', a public bike service in Seoul, we identified a stay point and estimated travel frequency reflecting population, land use, and physical characteristics. Application of map matching and a stay point detection algorithm revealed that stay point appeared in about 12.1% of the total trips. Compared to a trip without stay point, the trip with stay point has a longer average travel distance and travel time and a higher occurrence rate during off-peak hours. According to visualization analysis, the stay points are mainly found in parks, leisure facilities, and business facilities. To consider the stay point, the unit of analysis was set as a hexagonal grid rather than the existing rental station base. Travel frequency considering the stay point were analyzed using the Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) model. Results of our analysis revealed that the travel frequency were higher in bike infrastructure where the safety of bike users was secured, such as 'Bikepath' and 'Bike and pedestrian path'. Also, public bikes play a role as first & last mile means of access to public transportation. The measure of travel frequency was also observed to increase in life and employment centers. Considering the results of this analysis, securing safety facilities and space for users should be given priority when planning any additional expansion of bike infrastructure. Moreover, there is a necessity to establish a plan to supply bike infrastructure facilities linked to public transportation, especially the subway.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.131-136
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• 2017

This study deals with the small-size roundabout accidents. The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of small-size roundabout accidents from developing various types of accident models, and to discuss the improvement countermeasures by vehicle type. The geometric characteristics of 36 roundabouts are surveyed, and the traffic accident data from 2008 to 2014 are collected and classified as those of car, truck and motor cycle. In this study, dependent variable is the number of accident and independent variables are such 15 variables as geometry and traffic volume. The main results are as follows. First, the null hypotheses that the size of roundabout and type of vehicle are not related to traffic accident are rejected. Second, 8 count data models which are all statistically significant are developed. Third, the number of circulatory roadway lane and sidewalk are selected as common variables of roundabout size. Finally, the number of entry and circulatory roadway lane are selected as common variables of vehicle type.