• Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.126-134
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• 2001

Statistical approaches for analysis of data from the limited number of samples in ship building industry(SBI) collected by an industrial hygienist for checking compliance to an occupational standard were considered. Sampling for compliance usually has been guided by judgment selection, rather than true randomness, resulting in the creation of compliance samples which approximate a censored sample from the upper tail of the exposure distribution. Similar exposure groups(SEGs) including welding and painting process were established to assess representative values in each groups after reviewing the whole production line in SBI. For the convenient statistical approaches, the code has assigned to each SEGs. The descriptive statistics and probability plotting were used to yield the representative values in each SEGs. In the first step, SEGs of 558 were established from 5 ship building companies. The 38 SEGs showed the uncertainty are divided into each 5 companies and assessed the representative values again. The 44 SEGs in each companies was not showed the normal and lognormal distribution was analyzed each data. And also, recommendation was suggested to resolve the uncertainty in each groups.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.7
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• pp.505-513
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• 2022

Recently, uncertainty in predicting available water resources is gradually increasing due to climate change and extreme weather conditions. Social interest in water management such as flood and drought prevention is also increasing, and after the unification of water management implemented in 2018, domestic water management is facing a major turning point. As part of such strengthening of water management capabilities, various studies are being conducted to utilize a hydropower dam for flood control and water supply purposes, which was mainly operated for hydroelectric power generation. However, since the dam evaluation methods developed based on a multi-purpose dam are being applied to hydropower dams, an additional evaluation approach that can consider the characteristics of hydropower dams is required. In this study, a new water supply capacity evaluation method is presented in consideration of the operational characteristics of hydropower dams in terms of water supply, and a connected reservoir simulation method is proposed to evaluate the comprehensive water supply capacity of a dam group operating in a river basin. The presented method was applied to the hydropower dams located in the Bukhan River basin, and the results of the water supply yield of individual dams and multi-reservoir systems were compared and analyzed. In the future, the role of hydropower dams for water supply during drought is expected to become more important, and this study can be used for sustainable domestic water management research using hydropower dams.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.523-540
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• 2016

The effects of satellite observations on large-scale atmospheric circulations in the reanalysis data are investigated by comparing the latest Japanese Meteorological Association's reanalysis data (JRA-55) and its family data, JRA-55 Conventional (JRA-55C). The latter is identical to the former except that satellite observations are excluded during the data assimilation process. Only conventional datasets are assimilated in JRA-55C. A simple comparison revealed a considerable difference in temperature and zonal wind fields in both the stratosphere and troposphere. Such differences are particularly large in the Southern Hemisphere and whole stratosphere where conventional ground-based measurements are limited. The effects of satellite observations on the zonal-mean tropospheric circulations are further examined in terms of the Hadley cell, eddy-driven jet, and mid-latitude storm tracks. In both hemispheres, JRA-55C exhibits slightly weaker and narrower Hadley cell than JRA-55. This is consistent with a weaker diabatic heating in JRA-55C. The eddy-driven jet shows a small difference in its latitudinal location only in the Southern Hemisphere. Likewise, while the Northern-Hemisphere storm tracks are quantitatively similar in the two datasets, Southern-Hemisphere storm tracks are relatively weaker in JRA-55C than in JRA-55. Their difference is comparable to the uncertainty between reanalysis datasets, indicating that satellite data assimilation could yield significant corrections in the zonal-mean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.14 no.3 s.40
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• pp.287-300
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• 2004

By using a simple conceptual model, a sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the effects of changing model parameters on the model outputs, the groundwater discharge and the radius of influence, induced by tunnel construction. The results indicate that the model outputs are most sensitive to the tunnel depth and the hydraulic conductivity, and their sensitivities vary with time. It is also revealed that the sensitivity of the specific yield in- creases constantly with time, and therefore it is as important as the hydraulic conductivity for constructing a wet-system tunnel. A transient model is suggested to simulate the stepwise tunnel excavation and the watertight lining. The model is used for a tunnel construction site to predict groundwater mow into the tunnel and the transient response of the surrounding aquifer system. The predicted results are highly sensitive to the hydraulic conductivites assigned by model calibration. Thus, a postaudit should be made to reduce the uncertainty of the predictive model.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.315-330
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• 2018

A subcritical facility must ensure nuclear criticality safety under all circumstances. For this purpose, it is essential to have a procedure to validate that calculated values do not exceed upper subcritical limit (USL), determined by quantifying the bias and uncertainty. However, there are several validation methodologies of nuclear criticality safety and these can yield different USL. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the validity of the methodologies to establish one methodology that can provide the most appropriate USL. In this study, two documents, a guide for validation of nuclear criticality safety calculational methodology (NUREG/CR-6698) and a criticality benchmark guide for light water reactor fuel in transport and storage package (NUREG/CR-6361), are compared and analyzed. In particular, the methodology in NUREG/CR-6361 is applied to the USLSTATS code. However, the analysis results show that the methodology in NUREG/CR-6698 is more appropriate, for several reasons. This is applied to decision of USL to design casks using SCALE code version 6.1.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.99-110
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• 2018

This study empirically examines simple methodology to quantify the risk resulted from the uncertainty of bunker price and foreign exchange rate, which cause main resources of the cost in shipping industry during the periods between $1^{st}$ of January 2010 and $31^{st}$ of January 2018. To shed light on the risk measurement in cash flows we tested GBM(Geometric Brownian Motion) frameworks such as the model with conditional heteroskedasticity and jump diffusion process. The main contribution based on empirical results are summarized as following three: first, the risk analysis, which is dependent on a single variable such as freight yield, is extended to analyze the effects of multiple factors such as bunker price and exchange rate return volatility. Second, at the individual firm level, the need for risk management in bunker price and exchange rate is presented as cash flow. Finally, based on the scale of the risk presented by the analysis results, the shipping companies are required that there is a need to consider what is appropriate as a means of risk management.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.5 no.5
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• pp.507-521
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• 1997

The ultimate behavior of a reinforced concrete hyperbolic paraboloid saddle shell under uniformly distributed vertical load is investigated using an inelastic, large displacement finite-element program originally developed at North Carolina State University. Unlike with the author's previous study which shows that the saddle shell possesses a tremendous capacity to redistribute the stresses, introducing tension stiffening in the model the cracks developed are no longer through cracks and formed as primarily bending cracks. Even though with small tension stiffening effect, the behavior of the shell is changed markedly from the one without tension stiffening effect. The load-deflection curves are straight and the slope of the curves is quite steep and remains unchanged with varying the tension stiffening parameters. The failure of the shell took place quite suddenly in a cantilever mode initiated by a formation of yield lines in a direction parallel to the support-to-support diagonal. The higher the tension stiffening parameters the higher is the ultimate load. The present study shows that the ultimate behavior of the shell primarily depends on the concrete tensile characteristics, such as tensile strength (before cracking) and the effective tension stiffening (after cracking). As the concrete characteristics would vary over the life of the shell, a degree of uncertainty is involved in deciding a specified ultimate strength of the saddle shell studied. By the present study, however, the overload factors based on ACI 318-95 are larger than unity for all the cases studied except that the tension stiffening parameter is weak by 3 with and without the large displacement effect, which shows that the Lin-Scordelis saddle shell studied here is at least safe.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.26 no.9
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• pp.1931-1942
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• 2002

In this paper a formulation of robust optimization is presented and illustrated by a design example of vibratory micro gyroscopes in order to reduce the effect of variations due to uncertainties in MEMS fabrication processes. For the vibratory micro gyroscope considered it is important to match the resonance frequencies of the vertical (sensing) and lateral (driving) modes as close as possible to attain a high sensing sensitivity. A deterministic optimization in which the difference of both the sensing and driving natural frequencies is minimized as an objective function results in highly enhanced performance but apt to be very sensitive to fabrication errors. The formulation proposed is to attain robustness of the performance by including the sensitivity of the response with respect to uncertain variables as a term of objective function to be minimized. This formulation is simple and practically applicable since no detail statistical information on fabrication errors is required. The geometric variables, beam width, length and thickness of vibratory micro gyroscopes are adopted as design variables and at the same time considered as uncertain variables because here occur the fabrication errors. A robustness test in terms of a percentage yield by using the Monte Carlo simulation has shown that the robust optimum produces twice more acceptable designs than the deterministic optimum. Improvement of robustness becomes bigger as the amount of fabrication errors is assumed larger. Considering that the magnitude of fabrication errors and uncertainties in a MEMS structure are comparatively large, the present method is illustrated to be a viable approach for a robust MEMS design.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.80-87
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• 2020

As the Arctic sea ice decreases due to various reasons such as global warming, the demand for ships and offshore structures operating in the Arctic region is steadily increasing. In the case of sea ice, the anisotropy is caused by the uncertainty inside the material. For most of the research, nevertheless, estimating the ice load has been treated deterministically. With regard to this, in this paper, a four-point bending strength analysis of an ice specimen was attempted using a stochastic finite element method. First, spatial distribution of the material properties used in the yield criterion was assumed to be a multivariate Gaussian random field. After that, a direct method, which is a sort of stochastic finite element method, and a sensitivity method using the sensitivity of response for random variables were proposed for calculating the probabilistic distribution of ice specimen strength. A parametric study was conducted with different mean vectors and correlation lengths for each material property used in the above procedure. The calculation time was about ten seconds for the direct method and about three minutes for the sensitivity methods. As the cohesion and correlation length increased, the mean value of the critical load and the standard deviation increased. On the contrary, they decreased as the friction angle increased. Also, in all cases, the direct and sensitivity methods yielded very similar results.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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• 1996.06c
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• pp.977-986
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• 1996

The uncertainty of rains at the onset of wet season (WS) and the drought risk involved hinder growing more than one rainfed lwoland rice crop per year. Establishing transplanted rice well into the WS leaves insufficient moisture in the soil for subsequent crop. Rice establishment early in the season gives the farmer better opportunities to grow a crop after rice. An experiment was conducted startign in 1993 to evaluate dry seeding of rice through slit soil seeding. It is done utilizing the vertical metering slit seeder for conserving soil moisture coming from the first rains in the early WS to sustain germination and establishment of the seeding at least until the succeeding rains under therainfed lowland (RL) environment. The treatment consisted of slit-seeding the PSBRc 14 into the tilled and nontilled plots at 100kg/ha and at depths of <10 mm (shallow seeding) and 60-70m (deep seeding). The control treatment was broadcast seeded on tilled soil and harrow to cover the seeds The superior crop establishment observed in 1995 WS experiment on nontilled, slit-seeded plots confirmed the results observed in 1993 WS and 1994 WS experiments. Emergence in deep seeding was not significantly different from shallow seeding in nontilled plots giving an average yield of 2.1 t/ha in all slit-seeded plots. This offers an advantage of reduced energy in put in nontilled shallow seeding. However, heavy weed infestation has to be addressed at the early stage of rice in nontilled soil to get the full advantage from slit seeding. The consistently better crop establishment observed in slit seeding over that of broadcast seeding in the WS of 1993, 1994 and 1995 also demonstrates that the slit seeding technology can be adopted with confidence in the rainfed lowland field condition to reduce the risks involved in broadcast seeding.