• 천문학회지
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.133-144
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• 2019

We develop forecast models of daily probabilities of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten magnetic parameters characterizing size, distribution, and non-potentiality of vector magnetic fields from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray flare data. The magnetic parameters are classified into three types: the total unsigned parameters, the total signed parameters, and the mean parameters. We divide the data into two sets chronologically: 70% for training and 30% for testing. The empirical relationships between the parameters and flaring rates are used to predict flare occurrence probabilities for a given magnetic parameter value. Major results of this study are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with ten parameters having correlation coefficients above 0.85. Second, logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by linear equations. Third, using total unsigned and signed parameters achieved better performance for predicting flares than the mean parameters in terms of verification measures of probabilistic and converted binary forecasts. We conclude that the total quantity of non-potentiality of magnetic fields is crucial for flare forecasting among the magnetic parameters considered in this study. When this model is applied for operational use, it can be used using the data of 21:00 TAI with a slight underestimation of 2-6.3%.

• 천문학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.47-55
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• 2000

Nonpotential characteristics of magnetic fields in AR 5747 are examined using Mees Solar Observatory magnetograms taken on Oct. 20, 1989 to Oct. 22, 1989. The active region showed such violent flaring activities during the observational span that strong X-ray flares took place including a 2B/X3 flare. The magnetogram data were obtained by the Haleakala Stokes Polarimeter which provides simultaneous Stokes profiles of the Fe I doublet 6301.5 and 6302.5. A nonlinear least square method was adopted to derive the magnetic field vectors from the observed Stokes profiles and a multi-step ambiguity solution method was employed to resolve the $180^{\circ}$ ambiguity. From the ambiguity-resolved vector magnetograms, we have derived a set of physical quantities characterizing the field configuration, which are magnetic flux, vertical current density, magnetic shear angle, angular shear, magnetic free energy density, a measure of magnetic field discontinuity MAD and linear force-free coefficient. Our results show that (1) magnetic nonpotentiality is concentrated near the inversion line in the flaring sites, (2) all the physical parameters decreased with time, which may imply that the active region was in a relaxation stage of its evolution, (3) 2-D MAD has similar patterns with other nonpotential parameters, demonstrating that it can be utilized as an useful parameter of flare producing active region, and (4) the linear force-free coefficient could be a evolutionary indicator with a merit as a global nonpotential parameter.

• 천문학회보
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.33.2-33.2
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• 2010

We have investigated a relationship among the solar proton events (SPEs), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares during the solar cycle 23 (1997-2006). Using 63 SPE dataset, we found that SPE rise time, duration time, and decrease times depend on CME speed and SPE peak intensity depends on the CME earthward direction parameter as well as CME speed and x-ray flare intensity. While inspecting the relation between SPE peak intensity and the CME earthward direction parameter, we found that there are two groups: first group consists of large 6 SPEs (> 10,000 pfu at >10 MeV proton channel of GOES satellite) and shows a very good correlation (cc=0.65) between SPE peak intensity and CME earthward direction parameter. The second group has a relatively weak SPE peak intensity and shows poor correlation between SPE peak intensity and the CME earthward direction parameter (cc=0.01). By investigating characteristics of 6 SPEs in the first group, we found that there are special common conditions of the extremely large proton events (group 1); (1) all the SPEs are associated with very fast halo CME (>1400km/s), (2) they are almost located at disk region, (3) they also accompany large flare (>M7), (4) all they are preceded by another wide CMEs, and (5) they all show helmet streamer nearby the main CME. In this presentation, we will give details of the energy spectra of the 6 SPE events from the ERNE/HED aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and onset time comparison among the SPE, flare, type II burst, and CME.

• 천문학회보
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.27.2-27.2
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• 2010

We have studied the formation of coronal holes (CHs) associated with halo CMEs. For this study, we used multi-wavelength data from Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT), GOES Soft X-ray Imager (SXI), SOHO EIT 195 ${\AA}$, SOHO MDI magnetogram, MLSO He I 10830 ${\AA}$, and BBSO H-alpha. The CHs are characterized by open magentic field regions with low emission, density, and temperature and their open fields drive high speed solar winds which cause geomagnetic storms. So far, the formation and the evolution of CHs are not well understood. The formation of the dark region associated with the eruption of a CME is well known as "coronal dimming" which may be caused by the mass depletion near the CME footpoint. It is different from a typical CH since it persists for only one or two days. In this study, we present three cases that show the formation of coronal holes which are associated with three halo CMEs: 1) 2000 Jul 14, 2) 2003 Oct 28, 3) 2005 May 13. In the first case, hot plasma was ejected during a weak eruption and then filled out the pre-existing CH. After the halo CME occurred, the hot plasma region becomes a CH again. In the second and the third cases, we found newly formed CHs just after their associated CMEs. All three coronal holes are associated with strong flares and persist over 3 days until they disappeared by the solar rotation. Examining the MDI magnetograms, we found that the magnetic polarity of each CH region has one polarity. Based on these results, we suggest that the coronal holes can be formed by the CMEs and they should be distinguished from the coronal dimming.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.89.2-89.2
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• 2013

Solar energetic transients, e.g., flares, CMEs, etc., release large amount of energy which is expected to excite acoustic waves (p-modes) by exerting mechanical impulse of the thermal expansion of the flare on the photosphere. We study the p-mode properties of flaring and dormant active regions (ARs) to find association between flare and p-mode parameters. We compute the magnetic and flare activity indices of ARs using the line-of-sight magnetograms and GOES X-ray fluxes, respectively. The p-mode parameters are computed from the ring-diagram analysis. We correct p-mode parameters for magnetic field, filling factors and foreshortening by multiple linear-regression analysis. Our analysis of several flaring and dormant ARs observed during the Carrington rotations 1980-2109, showed strong association of mode parameters with magnetic and flare activities. We find that the mode parameters are contaminated by the geometrical effect. Mode amplitude decreases with angular distance from the solar disc centre. The mode width increases with magnetic activity while amplitude showed opposite relation due to mode absorption by the sunspot. After correcting modes due to all geometrical effects, magnetic activity and filling factor, we find that the modes amplitude, and mode energy increases with flare energy while width shows opposite relation.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.441-452
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• 2004

실시간 관측자료를 사용하여 현재상태를 진단하고 이후의 변화를 예보하는 것은 우주환경 모니터링 시스템의 필수적인 요소라 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 ION(IDL On the Net)을 이용하여 웹 기반의 우주환경모니터링 시스템을 구축하였다(http://sun.kao.re.kr). 이 웹 페이지에서는 현재의 태양 및 지자기 데이터를 보여주고 위성, 통신, 지상 전력시스템에 줄 수 있는 영향을 예측하여 제시하고 있다. 그리고 NOAA/SEC에서 매일 제시하는 태양 X선 플레어, 프로톤 현상, 지자기 폭풍의 예보결과를 표시한다. 또한 행성간 태양 충격파와 CME(Coronal Mass Ejection; 코로나 물질 방출)의 지구도달 시간을 예측하기 위해 두 가지의 예측모델이 웹에서 구동되도록 하였다. 현재 우리는 여러가지 태양 및 지자기 활동과 관련된 각종데이터를 IDL과 FTP 프로그램을 사용하여 실시간으로 다운받아 우주환경 데이터베이스를 확장하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 한국천문연구원의 우주환경모니터링시스템 개발에 관하여 자세히 기술한다.

• 천문학회지
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.55-60
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• 2009

The properties of SOHO/LASCO CMEs are subjected to projection effects. Their dependence on the source position is important to be studied. Our main aim is to study the dependence of CME properties on helio-longitude and latitude using the CMEs associated with type IIs observed by Wind/WAVES spacecraft (Deca-hecta metric type IIs - DH type IIs). These CMEs were identified as a separate population of geo-effective CMEs. We considered the CMEs associated with the Wind/WAVE type IIs observed during the period January 1997 - December 2005. The source locations of these CMEs were identified using their associated GOES X-ray flares and listed online. Using their locations and the cataloged properties of CMEs, we carried out a study on the dependence of CME properties on source location. We studied the above for three groups of CMEs: (i) all CMEs, (ii) halo and non-halo CMEs, and (iii) limb and non-limb CMEs. Major results from this study can be summarized as follows. (i) There is a clear dependence of speed on both the longitude and latitude; while there is an increasing trend with respect to longitude, it is opposite in the case of latitude. Our investigations show that the longitudinal dependence is caused by the projection effect and the latitudinal effect by the solar cycle effect. (ii) In the case of width, the disc centered events are observed with more width than those occurred at higher longitudes, and this result seems to be the same for latitude. (iii) The dependency of speed is confirmed on the angular distance between the sun-center and source location determined using both the longitude and latitude. (iv) There is no dependency found in the case of acceleration. (v) Among all the three groups of CMEs, the speeds of halo CMEs show more dependency on longitude. The speed of non-halo and non-limb CMEs show more dependency on latitude. The above results may be taken into account in correcting the projection effects of geo-effective CMEs.