• Title/Summary/Keyword: Worst scenario

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A Study on Systematic Risk Assessment Method for LNG Storage Facilities (LNG 저장설비에 대한 체계적인 위험성평가 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Mee-Jin;Lee, Young-Soon;Lee, Seung-Rim
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2009
  • As the consumption of LNG has increased, the capacity and number of LNG facilities are getting bigger and bigger. Such circumstances supports the need for a dedicated risk analysis model to help review and check major issues of the safer construction and operation of LNG storage facilities systematically. Therefore this study suggests an appropriate risk analysis model that enables us to evaluate hazards of LNG storage facilities more easily and systematically, and then to use its result in siting, design and construction stages of the facilities. ill order to develop the model, lots of existing studies and domestic and foreign codes and standards were fully reviewed and a series of case studies also were carried out. The suggested model consists of 4-stage evaluations: in selecting a site, in determining a layout, in designing and constructing the facilities, and in operating them. This model also suggests the weather condition necessary for estimating the consequence of accident-scenarios, and the easy, systematic approach to the analysis of their probability. We expect that the model may help secure LNG storage facilities' inherent safety in determining their site and layout.

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A study on the case analysis of Nitric acid chemical accident and establishment of preventive measures (질산 화학사고 사례분석 및 독성피해 영향범위에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Seung;Shin, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.488-496
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    • 2020
  • This study was based on nitrate chemical accidents at home and abroad. Toxic gases due to adverse reactions are generated in the workplace, laboratory, hospital, container damage, and chemical misinjection. Through a case review of possible situations and safety, this study analyzed various cases of accidents, accident status, accident type, cause of the accident, location of the accidents, etc. from 2014 to 2018. The plans for improvement in education and nitrate accidents were reviewed. As a result, 36 nitrate chemical accidents were investigated, including 16 careless worker accidents, eight transportation accidents, and 12 facilities shortages. Nitrate chemical accidents are occurring continuously. Based on this, the range of toxic effects using CARIS was calculated at the worst-case scenario, and the effective response range was measured through the damage impact range. For this purpose, the impact range was predicted based on the strengthening of safety education, emergency action plan and correlation, and the quantified data was identified. In addition, the reliability of the scope of impact was reviewed based on the correlation formula that could facilitate the evacuation of residents, and it was applied to actual accident scenarios of the workplace to present the effects of the accident response and preventive measures.

Developing Extreme Drought Scenarios for Seoul based on the Long Term Precipitation Including Paleoclimatic Data (고기후 자료를 포함한 장기연속 강수자료에 의한 서울지역의 극한가뭄 시나리오 개발)

  • Jang, Ho-Won;Cho, Hyeong-Won;Kim, Tae-Woong;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.659-668
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    • 2017
  • In this study, long-term rainfall data of more than 300 years including the paleoclimatic rainfall data from Chuk Woo Kee (1777-1907), the modern observed rainfall data (1908-2015), and the climate change scenario (2016-2099), which were provided by KMA (Korea Meteorological Agency), was used to analyze the statistical characteristics of the extreme drought in the Seoul., Annual average rainfall showed an increasing trend over a entire period, and Wavelet transform analysis of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) which is meteorological drought index, showed 64 to 80 months (5-6 Year) of drought periods for Chuk Woo Kee and KMA data, 96 to 128 months (8 to 10 years) of drought period for climate change data. The dry spell analysis showed that the drought occurrence frequency in the ancient period was high, but frequency was gradually decreased in the modern and future periods. In addition, through the analysis of the drought magnitude, 1901 was the extreme drought year in Seoul, and 1899-1907 was the worst consecutive 9 years long term drought in Seoul.

A Study on the Risk Assessment of River Crossing Pipeline in Urban Area (도심지 하천매설배관의 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Woo-Il;Yoo, Chul-Hee;Shin, Dong-Il;Kim, Tae-Ok;Lee, Hyo-Ryeol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 2020
  • In this study, quantitative risk assessment was carried out for city gas high-pressure pipelines crossing through urban rivers. The risk assessment was performed based on actual city gas properties, traffic volume and population and weather data in the worst case scenario conditions. The results confirmed that the social and individual risks were located in conditionally acceptable areas. This can be judged to be safer considering that the risk mitigation effect of protecting the pipes or installing them in the protective structure at the time of the construction of the river buried pipe is not reflected in the result of the risk assessment. Also, SAFETI v8.22 was used to analyze the effects of wind speed and pasquil stability on the accident damage and dispersion distances caused by radiation. As a result of the risk assessment, the safety of the pipelines has been secured to date, but suggests ways to improve safety by preventing unexpected accidents including river bed changes through periodic inspections and monitoring.

Stability analysis of an existing utility tunnel due to the excavation of a divergence tunnel emerging from double-deck tunnel (복층터널의 분기터널 굴착에 따른 지하 공동구의 안정성 분석)

  • Nam, Kyoung-Min;Choi, Min-ki;Kim, Jung-Joo;Jafri, Turab H.;Yoo, Han-Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.231-248
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    • 2017
  • Government plans to construct a double-deck tunnel under a portion of Gyeongbu Expressway that will solve traffic problems and could also be used as a flood storage facility. Divergence tunnels connect the main tunnel to the urban areas and their construction effects on adjacent structures at shallow depth need to be analyzed. This study primarily includes the numerical analysis of construction effects of divergence tunnels on utility tunnels. The utility tunnel was analyzed for three cases of volume loss applied to the divergence tunnel and two cases of the angle between main tunnel and divergence tunnel ($36^{\circ}$ and $45^{\circ}$). The results show that the more the volume loss was applied and the shorter the distance was between utility tunnel and divergence tunnel, the more the utility tunnel was affected in terms of induced displacements, angular displacement and stability. The worst scenario was found out to be the one where the angle between main tunnel and divergence tunnel was $36^{\circ}$ and the distance between divergence tunnel and utility tunnel was 10 m, resulting in the largest displacement and differential settlement at the bottom of the utility tunnel. A relationship between the angular displacement and the distance to diameter ratio was also established.

Flexible Intelligent Exit Sign Management of Cloud-Connected Buildings

  • Lee, Minwoo;Mariappan, Vinayagam;Lee, Junghoon;Cho, Juphil;Cha, Jaesang
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.58-63
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    • 2017
  • Emergencies and disasters can happen any time without any warning, and things can change and escalate very quickly, and often it is swift and decisive actions that make all the difference. It is a responsibility of the building facility management to ensure that a proven evacuation plan in place to cover various worst scenario to handled automatically inside the facility. To mapping out optimal safe escape routes is a straightforward undertaking, but does not necessarily guarantee residents the highest level of protection. The emergency evacuation navigation approach is a state-of-the-art that designed to evacuate human livings during an emergencies based on real-time decisions using live sensory data with pre-defined optimum path finding algorithm. The poor decision on causalities and guidance may apparently end the evacuation process and cannot then be remedied. This paper propose a cloud connected emergency evacuation system model to react dynamically to changes in the environment in emergency for safest emergency evacuation using IoT based emergency exit sign system. In the previous researches shows that the performance of optimal routing algorithms for evacuation purposes are more sensitive to the initial distribution of evacuees, the occupancy levels, and the type and level of emergency situations. The heuristic-based evacuees routing algorithms have a problem with the choice of certain parameters which causes evacuation process in real-time. Therefore, this paper proposes an evacuee routing algorithm that optimizes evacuation by making using high computational power of cloud servers. The proposed algorithm is evaluated via a cloud-based simulator with different "simulated casualties" are then re-routed using a Dijkstra's algorithm to obtain new safe emergency evacuation paths against guiding evacuees with a predetermined routing algorithm for them to emergency exits. The performance of proposed approach can be iterated as long as corrective action is still possible and give safe evacuation paths and dynamically configure the emergency exit signs to react for real-time instantaneous safe evacuation guidance.

Assessment of Precipitation Characteristics and Synoptic Pattern Associated with Typhoon Affecting the South Korea (우리나라 내습태풍 유형에 따른 강우특성 및 종관기후학적 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Park, Kun-Chul;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.463-477
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    • 2015
  • The recent unusual climate and extreme weather events have frequently given unexpected disaster and damages, facing difficulties in the management of water resources. In particular, climate change could result in intensified typhoons, and this would be the worst case scenario that can happen. The primary objective of this study is to identify the patterns of typhoon-induced precipitation and the associated synoptic pattern. This study focused on analyzing precipitation patterns over the South Korea using historic records as opposed to a specified season or duration, and further investigates the potential connection with heavy rainfall to synoptic patterns. In this study, we used the best track data provided by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center of Japan for 40 years from 1973 to 2012. The patterns of the typhoon-induced precipitation were categorized into four groups according to a given typhoon track information, and then the associated synoptic climatology patterns were further investigated. The results demonstrate that the typhoon-induced precipitation patterns could be grouped and potentially simulated according to the identified synoptic patterns. Our future work will focus on developing a short-term forecasting model of typhoon-induced precipitation considering the identified climate patterns as inputs.

Scenario-Driven Verification Method for Completeness and Consistency Checking of UML Object-Oriented Analysis Model (UML 객체지향 분석모델의 완전성 및 일관성 진단을 위한 시나리오기반 검증기법)

  • Jo, Jin-Hyeong;Bae, Du-Hwan
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.211-223
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    • 2001
  • 본 논문에서 제안하는 시나리오기반 검증기법의 목적은 UML로 작성된 객체지향 분석모델의 완전성 및 일관성을 진단하는 것이다. 검증기법의 전체 절차는 요구분석을 위한 Use Case 모델링 과정에서 생성되는 Use Case 시나리오와 UML 분석모델로부터 역공학적 방법으로 도출된 객체행위 시나리오와의 상호참조과정 및 시나리오 정보트리 추적과정을 이용하여 단계적으로 수행된다. 본 검증절차를 위하여 우선, UML로 작성된 객체지향 분석모델들은 우선 정형명세언어를 사용하여 Use Case 정형명세로 변환하다. 그 다음에, Use Case 정형명세로부터 해당 Use Case 내의 객체의 정적구조를 표현하는 시나리오 정보트리를 구축하고, Use Case 정형명세 내에 포함되어 있는 객체 동적행위 정보인 메시지 순차에 따라 개별 시나리오흐름을 시나리오 정보트리에 표현한다. 마지막으로 시나리오 정보트리 추적과 시나리오 정보 테이블 참조과정을 중심으로 완전성 및 일관성 검증작업을 수행한다. 즉, 검증하고자 하는 해당 Use Case의 시나리오 정보트리를 이용한 시나리오 추적과정을 통해 생성되는 객체행위 시나리오와 요구분석 과정에서 도출되는 Use Case 시나리오와의 일치여부를 조사하여 분석모델과 사용자 요구사양과의 완전성을 검사한다. 그리고, 시나리오 추적과정을 통해 수집되는 시나리오 관련종보들을 가지고 시나리오 정보 테이블을 작성한 후, 분석과정에서 작성된 클래스 관련정보들의 시나리오 포함 여부를 확인하여 분석모델의 일관성을 검사한다. 한편, 본 논문에서 제안하는 검증기법의 효용성을 증명하기 위해 대학의 수강등록시스템 개발을 위해 UML을 이용해 작성된 분석모델을 특정한 사례로써 적용하여 보았다. 프로세싱 오버헤드 및 메모리와 대역폭 요구량 측면에서 MARS 모델보다 유리함을 알 수 있었다.과는 본 논문에서 제안된 프리페칭 기법이 효율적으로 peak bandwidth를 줄일 수 있다는 것을 나타낸다.ore complicate such a prediction. Although these overestimation sources have been attacked in many existing analysis techniques, we cannot find in the literature any description about questions like which one is most important. Thus, in this paper, we quantitatively analyze the impacts of overestimation sources on the accuracy of the worst case timing analysis. Using the results, we can identify dominant overestimation sources that should be analyzed more accurately to get tighter WCET estimations. To make our method independent of any existing analysis techniques, we use simulation based methodology. We have implemented a MIPS R3000 simulator equipped with several switches, each of which determines the accuracy level of the

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Consequence Analysis of Hydrogen Filling Stations based on Cascade Compressing Systems (케스케이드 방식 압축시스템 기반의 수소충전소에 대한 정성적 위험성평가)

  • Ahn, Byeong-Jun;Rhim, Jong-Kuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2021
  • Because of the recent expansion of hydrogen vehicle supply, the installation of hydrogen filling station is expected to gradually expand. This study attempts to predict the damage scale and propose a safer design form based on the scenario that assumes the worst case of a hydrogen station. A Flacs solver using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to predict the damage scale, and the accuracy was verified by comparing it with the experimental results of previous researchers. The damage scale prediction was conducted for hydrogen leakage and explosion, and the prediction target was the KR model based on the measured values. And as a comparative review model, a roofless model was selected without a ceiling. As a result of analyzing the two models, it was possible to confirm the accumulation and retention of hydrogen gas up to 60 vol% or more in the KR model, whereas in the case of the Roofless model, the phenomenon of discharge and diffusion to the outside of the charging station by riding the wall after leakage. I was able to check. In conclusion, it was reviewed that the type of hydrogen charging station without ceiling is more advantageous for safety than the hydrogen filling station model.

The Risk Assessment of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning by Gas Boiler Exhaust System and Development of Fundamental Preventive Technology (가스보일러 CO중독 위험성 예측 및 근원적 예방기술 개발)

  • Park, Chan Il;Yoo, Kee-Youn
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2021
  • We devised the system to automatically shutdown the boiler and to fundamentally block the harmful gases, including carbon monoxide, into the indoor when the exhaust system swerves: (1) The discharge pressure of the exhaust gas decreases when the exhaust pipe is disconnected. The monitoring system of the exhaust pipe is implemented by measuring the output voltage of APS(Air Pressure Sensor) installed to control the amount of combustion air. (2) The operating software was modified so that when the system recognizes the fault condition of a flue pipe, the boiler control unit displays the fault status on the indoor regulator while shutting down the boiler. In accordance with the ventilation facility standards in the "Rules for Building Equipment Standards" by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, experiments were conducted to ventilate indoor air. When carbon monoxide leaked in worst-case scenario, it was possible to prevent poisoning accidents. However, since 2013, the number of indoor air exchange times has been mitigated from 0.7 to 0.5 times per hour. We observed the concentration exceeding TWA 30 ppm occasionally and thus recommend to reinforce this criterion. In conclusion, if the flue pipe fault detection and the indoor air ventilation system are introduced, carbon monoxide poisoning accidents are expected to decrease significantly. Also when the manufacturing and inspection steps, the correct installation and repair are supplemented with the user's attention in missing flue, it will be served to prevent human casualties from carbon monoxide poisoning.