• 대기
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.55-68
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• 2007

Future climate changes over East Asia are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using ECHO-G/S (ECHAM4/HOPE-G). Climate simulation in the 21st century is conducted with three standard SRES scenarios (A1B, B1, and A2) and the model performance is assessed by the 20th Century (20C3M) experiment. From the present climate simulation (20C3M), the model reproduced reliable climate state in the most fields, however, cold bias in temperature and dry bias of summer in precipitation occurred. The intercomparison among models using Taylor diagram indicates that ECHO-G/S exhibits smaller mean bias and higher pattern correlation than other nine AOGCMs. Based on SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming 21st century. Changes of geographical patterns from the present to the future are considerably similar through all the scenarios except for the magnitude difference. The temperature in winter and precipitation in summer show remarkable increase. In spite of the large uncertainty in simulating precipitation by regional scale, we found that the summer (winter) precipitation at eastern coast (north of $40^{\circ}N$) of East Asia has significantly increased. In the 21st century, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. Hence, more enhanced (weakened) land-sea thermal contrast over East Asia in summer (winter) will cause strong (weak) monsoon. In summer, the low pressure located in East Asia becomes deeper and the moisture from the south or southeast is transported more into the land. These result in increasing precipitation amount over East Asia, especially at the coastal region. In winter, the increase (decrease) of precipitation is accompanied by strengthening (weakening) of baroclinicity over the land (sea) of East Asia.

• 물과 미래
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.143-157
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• 1995

대기중 $CO_2$ 배증에 따른 한반도 강수량 변화가 3개 GCM(CCC, UI와 GFDL)의 기후변화 실험에 따른 광역적 강수변동 자료로부터 Robinson과 Finkelstein이 제시한 혼합적 방법에 의하여 계산되었다. 계산 결과 도출된 대기중 CO$ 배증에 따라 예상되는 강수량 변화는 다음과 같다. 봄철에 예상되는 강수량 증가는 약 25mm/yr정도이며 여름철과 가을철의 강수량 증가는 50mm/yr를 상회하였다. 그러나 겨울철에는 13mm/yr 감소하였다. 현 강수량에 대한 백분율로 보면 봄철, 여름철과 가을철에 각각 10%, 13%와 24%의 강수량 증가를 보인 반면에 겨울철에는 현재보다 다소 감소할 것이 예상된다.

• 대한환경공학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.113-125
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• 2007

강설과 강우에서의 이온성분 차이와 강설이 겨울철 강수의 화학적 특성에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위하여 전북 익산지역에서 1995년부터 2000년까지 강우와 강설의 포집이 가능한 매 $11\sim12$월과 $1\sim2$월 동안에 자동강수채취장치를 사용하여 강수를 포집한 후 pH와 전기전도도 그리고 수용성 이온성분의 농도를 측정하였다. 겨울철 강수의 평균 pH는 4.72이었으며, 강수의 침적형태에 따라서는 강설(5.05)보다 강우(4.67)에서 높은 산성도를 나타내었다. pH 5.0 이하의 저 pH 발생빈도는 강우의 경우 약 73%이었으며, 강설은 30%이었다. 이온성분의 경우 강설은 강우에 비해 해염에서 기원하고 있는 이온성분들의 농도가 높게 나타났는데, 특히 $Cl^-$, $Na^+$, $Mg^{2+}$ 의 경우 3배 이상의 농도 차이를 나타내었다. 해염기원 성분을 제외할 경우 강우와 강설 모두 음이온에서는 $nss-SO_4^{2-}$와 $NO_3^-$가 그리고 양이온에서는 $NH_4^+$와 $nss-Ca^{2+}$가 주성분인 것으로 나타났다. 이중 $nss-SO_4^{2-}$는 강우에서 1.3배 높은 농도를 나타낸 반면, $nss-Ca^{2+}$와 $NO_3^-$의 경우 강설에서 각각 1.5배와 1.3배 높은 농도를 나타내었다. 겨울철 강수 중 $nSS-SO_4^{2-}/NO_3^-$의 당량농도비는 2.4이었는데 이것은 강수의 산성도에 대한 $H_2SO_4$의 기여율이 71%이고 그 나머지가 $HNO_3$에 의한 것임을 의미한다. 강우와 강설에서는 각각 2.7과 1.5를 나타내었는데 이것은 입자상의 $SO_4^{2-}$나 $NO_3^-$보다 가스상의 $HNO_3$가 강설에서 효율적으로 제거되기 때문으로 국외의 다른 실측 연구결과와도 일치하고 있으며, 대기에어로졸의 세정이론과도 잘 부합되는 것으로 나타났다. 익산지역의 겨울철 강우와 강설 모두 $nss-SO_4^{2-}$와 $NO_3^-$가 국내 외 비오염지역에 비해 고농도로 검출되었지만, 이에 대응하는 알칼리성의 $NH_4^+$, $nss-Ca^{2+}$, $nss-K^+$ 등이 존재함으로써 중화작용이 이 지역 강수의 중요한 특징으로 나타났다. 그러나 강우와 강설에서의 이온성분의 차이 그리고 산성원인물질에 대한 이들 알칼리성 물질의 중화능 차이에 의해 강우에 비해 강설의 산성도가 낮은 것으로 나타났으며, 결과적으로 강설은 겨울철 강수의 산성도를 완화시키는 역할을 하는 것으로 파악되었다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.393-402
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• 1999

Precipitation samples were collected by the wet-only sampling method in Iksan in the northwest of Chonbuk from March 1995 to February 1997. These samples were analyzed for the concentration of ion components, in addition to pH and electrical conductivity. The annual mean pH of precipitation was 4.8 and the seasonal trend of pH was shown to be low in Fall and Winter(4.5), middle-ranged in Spring(4.7) and high in Summer(5.0). The frequency of pH below 5.6 was about 71%. The seasonal pattern of pH frequency was found to be different in each season. In the case of the pH less than 5.0, the frequency was higher in Spring, Fall and Winter than in Summer, especially higher in Fall than in other seasons. The concentrations of analysed ions showed a pronounced seasonal pattern. However, major ion species for all seasons were $NH^+_4,;Ca^{2+};and;Na^+$ among cations and $SO^{2-}_4,;Cl^-;and;NO^-_3$ among anions. The major acidifying species appeared to be $nss-SO^{2-}_4;and;NO^-_3$, and the main bases responsible for the neutralization of precipitation acidity were $nss-Ca^{2+};and;NH^+_4$. The potential acidity of precipitation, pAi, was found to be between 3.0 and 5.0 for total samples, while the measured pH was approximately between 3.9 and 7.8. The seasonal trend of pAi showed a decreasing order: Summer (4.3), Winter(4.0), Spring and Fall(3.8). During the Fall, both pAi and pH were especially very low, which indicated that during this period the potential acidity of precipitation was high but the neutralizing capacity was low. For Spring, pAi was very low but pH was slightly high. This was likely due to the large amount of $CaCO_3$ in the soil particles transported over a long range from the Chinese continent that were incorporated into the precipitation, and then neutralized the acidifying species with its high concentraton.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.31-46
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• 1997

본 연구는 남한의 동계 일강수량 데이터를 기초로 매일매일의 분포도를 작성하여, 강수의 공간적 분포 유형을 분류하였다. 그리고 강수의 공간적 분포유형과 그 종관적 특성과의 대응관계를, 먼저 기압배치형을 중심으로, 그리고 강수분포형을 중심으로 살펴보았다. 또한 지상일기도로 볼 때 유사한 특성을 지닌 울릉도형과 울릉도${\cdot}호남 동시 출현형의 차이를 알아보기 위해 850hPa, 700hPa, 500hPa면의 기압장, 기온장의 특성을 분석하였다. 그 결과 울릉도지역은 강수계급에 관계없이 높은 출현빈도를 보이고, 동해안은 5mm 이상에서, 호남지역은 1~5mm구간에서 더 높은 출현빈도를 나타냈다. 동계강수분포형은 12개로 분류할 수 있으며, 이들 분포형은 뚜렷한 계절 변화를 보인다. 울릉도형과 울릉도${\cdot}$호남 동시 출현형 간의 강수분포의 차이는 풍향, 풍속보다는 상층 한기의 이류 양상과 관련이 깊다.

• 대기
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.57-71
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• 2012

Influences of orographic and ocean effect, which depend on the detailed geographic characteristics, upon winter time (December-February) precipitation in the Yeongdong region are investigated. Most of precipitation events in the Yeongdong region during the wintertime are associated with moist northeasterly (coming from the northeast direction) winds and also the spatial distribution of precipitation shows a great difference between Mountain area (Daegwallyeong) and Coastal area (Gangneung). The linear correlation coefficient between the meteorological variables obtained from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data and precipitation amount for each precipitation type is calculated. Mountain type precipitation is dominated by northeasterly wind speed of the low level (1000 hPa and 925 hPa) and characterized with more precipitation in mountain area than coastal area. However, Coastal type precipitation is affected by temperature difference between ocean and atmosphere, and characterized with more precipitation in coastal area than mountain area. The results are summarized as follows; In the case of mountain type precipitation, the correlation coefficient between wind speed at 1000 hPa (925 hPa) and precipitation amount at Daegwallyeong is 0.60 (0.61). The correlation is statistical significant at 1% level. In the case of coastal type precipitation, the correlation coefficient of temperature difference between ocean and 925 hPa (850 hPa) over the East sea area and precipitation amount at Gangneung is 0.33 (0.34). As for the mountain type precipitation, a detailed analysis was conducted in order to verify the relationship between precipitation amount at Daegwallyeong and low level wind speed data from wind profiler in Gangneung and Buoy in the East Sea. The results also show the similar behavior. This result indicates that mountain type precipitation in the Yeongdong region is closely related with easterly wind speed. Thus, the statistical analysis of the few selected meteorological variables can be a good indicator to estimate the precipitation totals in the Yeongdong region in winter time.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.15-30
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• 2021

In this study, using 16 ORA-IP (Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project) data, we investigated spatial and temporal changes of net surface heat flux in the East Asian seas and presented a new ensemble net surface heat flux index. The ensemble net surface heat flux index is produced considering the data distribution and the standard deviation of each ORA-IP. From the correlation analysis with air temperature averaged over the Korean Peninsula, ensemble net heat flux around the Korea Strait shows the highest correlation (0.731) with a 3 month time lag. For the correlation study regarding precipitation over the Korean Peninsula, it also shows significant correlation especially in winter and spring seasons. Similar results are also found in comparison with climate indices (AO, PDO, and NINO3.4), but ensemble net surface heat flux data in winter season reveals the strongest correlation patterns especially with winter temperature and spring precipitation.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.235-242
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• 2013

The purpose of this article is analyzing the impacts of climate change on winter chinese cabbage yield in Korea, with employing a panel data regression model. Our results show that there is a negative impacts of high temperature and precipitation amount on winter chinese cabbage yields. Especially high temperature and rainfall in September cause serious damage to winter chinese cabbage yield. According to the reduction schedule on greenhouse gas emission(RCP 4.5 scenario.), winter chinese cabbage yield would be 7.7% lower than it is, for reasons of high temperature and rainfall damages by the end of 21st century.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.171-179
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• 2018

The causal relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and winter climate variability in Korea is tested by analyzing Korea Meteorological Administration Automatic Synoptic Observing System datasets for the past 59 years. Consistent with previous studies, positive phase of ENSO (El Nino) tends to cause warmer temperature and heavier precipitation in Korea in early winter with three-week lead time. This causality is quantified by performing Granger causality test. It turns out that ENSO explains an additional 9.25% of the variance of early-winter temperature anomalies in Korea, beyond that already provided by temperature itself. Likewise, 22.18% additional information is gained to explain early-winter precipitation variance by considering ENSO. This result, which differs from simple lead-lag correlation analysis, suggests that ENSO needs to be considered in predicting early-winter surface climate variability in Korea.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.83-91
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• 2010

Generally, the GCM (General Circulation Model) data by IPCC climate change scenarios are used for future weather prediction. IPCC GCM models predict well for the continental scale, but is not good for the regional scale. This paper tried to generate future temperature and precipitation of 8 scattered meteorological stations in South Korea by using the MIROC3.2 hires GCM data and applying LARS-WG downscaling method. The MIROC3.2 A1B scenario data were adopted because it has the similar pattern comparing with the observed data (1977-2006) among the scenarios. The results showed that both the future precipitation and temperature increased. The 2080s annual temperature increased $3.8{\sim}5.0^{\circ}C$. Especially the future temperature increased up to $4.5{\sim}7.8^{\circ}C$ in winter period (December-February). The future annual precipitation of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s increased 17.5 %, 27.5 %, and 39.0 % respectively. From the trend analysis for the future projected results, the above middle region of South Korea showed a statistical significance for winter precipitation and south region for summer rainfall.