• 제목/요약/키워드: Wind speed error

검색결과 212건 처리시간 0.025초

Analysis of Time Series Models for Ozone Concentrations at the Uijeongbu City in Korea

  • Lee, Hoon-Ja
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.1153-1164
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    • 2008
  • The ozone data is one of the important environmental data for measurement of the atmospheric condition of the country. In this article, the Autoregressive Error (ARE) model have been considered for analyzing the ozone data at the northern part of the Gyeonggi-Do, Uijeongbu monitoring site in Korea. The result showed that both overall and monthly ARE models are suited for describing the ozone concentration. In the ARE model, seven meteorological variables and four pollution variables are used as the as the explanatory variables for the ozone data set. The seven meteorological variables are daily maximum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, rainfall, dew point temperature, steam pressure, and amount of cloud. The four air pollution explanatory variables are Sulfur dioxide(SO2), Nitrogen dioxide(NO2), Cobalt(CO), and Promethium 10(PM10). Also, the high level ozone data (over 80ppb) have been analyzed four ARE models, General ARE, HL ARE, PM10 add ARE, Temperature add ARE model. The result shows that the General ARE, HL ARE, and PM10 add ARE models are suited for describing the high level of ozone data.

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경기도 수원시 미세먼지 농도의 시계열모형 연구 (Analysis of time series models for PM10 concentrations at the Suwon city in Korea)

  • 이훈자
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제21권6호
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    • pp.1117-1124
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    • 2010
  • 미세먼지 농도는 국가의 중요한 환경 척도 중의 하나이다. 본 연구에서는 경기도 남부에 위치한 수원시 2003년-2009년 미세먼지 농도를 주위에서 쉽게 구할 수 있는 대기자료와 기상자료를 이용하여 자기회귀오차모형으로 월별로 분석하였다. 미세먼지 농도 분석을 위한 대기자료는 이산화황, 이산화질소, 일산화탄소, 오존 등을 사용했고, 기상자료로는 일 최고온도, 풍속, 상대습도, 강수량, 일사량, 운량을 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 자기회귀오차모형으로 월별 미세먼지 농도를 13%-49% 정도 설명할 수 있다.

표류선박 거동특성 관측 및 분석 (Observation and Analysis of Movement Characteristics of Drifting Ships)

  • 이문진;강창구;윤종휘
    • 한국해양환경ㆍ에너지학회지
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2005
  • 해난사고에 의한 선박 표류시 신속한 수색 구조를 지원하기 위한 실시간 표류선박 위치추정시스템 구축의 기초연구로서 실제 해상에서의 선박 표류 거동을 관측하였으며, 환경외력조건에 대한 선박의 규모별 거동특성을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 실험에서는 G/T 10톤급 선박, 20톤급 선박, 50톤급 선박, 80톤급 선박 그리고 구명정(life raft)등 5종류의 선박을 대상으로 하였으며, 표류선박의 위치는 DGPS(Differential Global Positioning System)와 VHF 무전기를 이용한 자동위치발신기(APRS: Automatic Position Reporting System)를 자체 제작하여 측정하였다. 표류 대상선박 중 GH 50톤급 선반에서는 위치 측정과 동시에 표류 경로상의 해수유동, 바람, 선수각(Heading angle)등도 함께 측정하였다. 본 실험의 모든 관측에서 시간간격은 1분으로 동일하게 적용하였다. 실험결과에서 표류선박은 풍속의 3%∼5%의 속도로 표류하는 것으로 나타났으며, 표류방향은 풍향의 법선방향으로 나타났다.

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An Effective Adaptive Autopilot for Ships

  • Le, Minh-Duc;Nguyen, Si-Hiep;Nguyen, Lan-Anh
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2005년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.720-723
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    • 2005
  • Ship motion is a complex controlled process with several hydrodynamic parameters that vary in wide ranges with respect to ship load condition, speed and surrounding conditions (such as wind, current, tide, etc.). Therefore, to effectively control ships in a designed track is always an important task for ship masters. This paper presents an effective adaptive autopilot ships that ensure the optimal accuracy, economy and stability characteristics. The PID control methodology is modified and parameters of a PID controller is designed to satisfy conditions for an optimal objective function that comprised by heading error, resistance and drift during changing course, and loss of surge velocity or fuel consumption. Designing of the controller for course changing process is based on the Model Reference Adaptive System (MRAS) control theory, while as designing of the automatic course keeping process is based on the Self Tuning Regulator (STR) control theory. Simulation (using MATLAB software) in various disturbance conditions shows that in comparison with conventional PID autopilots, the designed autopilot has several notable advantages: higher course turning speed, lower swing of ship bow even in strong waves and winds, high accuracy of course keeping, shorter time of rudder actions smaller times of changing rudder direction.

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도시형-TCM 개발에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Development of TCM Urban-Mode)

  • 장영기;조경두
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.132-139
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    • 1993
  • TCM has been used for many environmental impact assessments and many case studies in Korea. TCM was applied to urbvan areas and rolling terrains. But original TCM was developed for rural area, and this model could not reflect the characteristcs of these study sites. This paper analyzed the characteristics of TCM, and modified the algorithm of area source, and modified the vertical wind speed profile exponents and diffusion parameter to make it applicable in urban area. In the process of modification, an important error in area source calculation of original TCM program was found. So that was corrected as follows. $$ Before modification $QC = 0.79788456^*(0.5^*GRID)^**BA/(U(IA, IRUN)^*AA^*BA TCM09310$ After modification $QC = 0.79788456^*(500^*GRID)^**BA/(U(IA, IRUN)^*AA*BA) modified$ $$ Then original TCM and modified TCM-urban mode were compared, and it was found that predicted mean value by original TCM was 7 times higher than observed mean value. But mean value by modified TCM-urban mode was very similar to observed value.

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Multivariate Time Series Analysis for Rainfall Prediction with Artificial Neural Networks

  • Narimani, Roya;Jun, Changhyun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.135-135
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    • 2021
  • In water resources management, rainfall prediction with high accuracy is still one of controversial issues particularly in countries facing heavy rainfall during wet seasons in the monsoon climate. The aim of this study is to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) for predicting future six months of rainfall data (from April to September 2020) from daily meteorological data (from 1971 to 2019) such as rainfall, temperature, wind speed, and humidity at Seoul, Korea. After normalizing these data, they were trained by using a multilayer perceptron (MLP) as a class of the feedforward ANN with 15,000 neurons. The results show that the proposed method can analyze the relation between meteorological datasets properly and predict rainfall data for future six months in 2020, with an overall accuracy over almost 70% and a root mean square error of 0.0098. This study demonstrates the possibility and potential of MLP's applications to predict future daily rainfall patterns, essential for managing flood risks and protecting water resources.

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라틴 하이퍼큐브 기반 신경망모델을 적용한 풍력발전기 피치제어기 최적화 (Optimization of Wind Turbine Pitch Controller by Neural Network Model Based on Latin Hypercube)

  • 이광기;한승호
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제36권9호
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    • pp.1065-1071
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    • 2012
  • 풍력발전기의 안정적인 전력생산은 정격풍속 이상에서 피치제어와 스톨제어와 같은 일정속도제어로 이루어지고 있다. 최근, 효율적인 전력생산을 위하여 정격풍속 이하의 변동풍속 조건에서 최대 출력을 얻기 위한 가변 속도제어가 적용되고 있는 추세이다. 기존의 피치제어기에서는 지글러-니콜스 계단응답법에 의한 제어기 최적화가 이루어지고 있으나, 가변 속도제어의 요구로 보다 정확한 최적화가 필요하게 되었다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 지글러-니콜스 계단응답법을 개선하기 위하여 라틴 하이퍼큐브 샘플링을 통한 신경망모델을 구축하고, 구축된 PID 제어 계수 신경망모델에 유전자 알고리즘을 적용하여 피치제어기를 최적화하였다. 유전자 알고리즘으로 구한 최적해가 지글러-니콜스 계단응답법의 초기해 보다 평균제곱근 오차가 13.4% 향상되었고, 응답특성을 나타내는 상승속도와 정착시간은 각각 15.8% 및 15.3%으로 개선되었다.

중규모 수치 모델 자료를 이용한 2007년 여름철 한반도 인지온도 예보와 검증 (Forecast and verification of perceived temperature using a mesoscale model over the Korean Peninsula during 2007 summer)

  • 변재영;김지영;최병철;최영진
    • 대기
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 2008
  • A thermal index which considers metabolic heat generation of human body is proposed for operational forecasting. The new thermal index, Perceived Temperature (PT), is forecasted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model and validated. Forecasted PT shows the characteristics of diurnal variation and topographic and latitudinal effect. Statistical skill scores such as correlation, bias, and RMSE are employed for objective verification of PT and input meteorological variables which are used for calculating PT. Verification result indicates that the accuracy of air temperature and wind forecast is higher in the initial forecast time, while relative humidity is improved as the forecast time increases. The forecasted PT during 2007 summer is lower than PT calculated by observation data. The predicted PT has a minimum Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of $7-8^{\circ}C$ at 9-18 hour forecast. Spatial distribution of PT shows that it is overestimated in western region, while PT in middle-eastern region is underestimated due to strong wind and low temperature forecast. Underestimation of wind speed and overestimation of relative humidity have caused higher PT than observation in southern region. The predicted PT from the mesoscale model gives appropriate information as a thermal index forecast. This study suggests that forecasted PT is applicable to the prediction of health warning based on the relationship between PT and mortality.

상세 해수면 온도자료의 반영에 따른 국지 기상정 개선에 관한 수치연구 (Numerical Study on the Impact of SST Spacial Distribution on Regional Circulation)

  • 전원배;이화운;이순환;최현정;임헌호
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.304-315
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    • 2009
  • Numerical simulations were carried out to understand the effect of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) spatial distribution on regional circulation. A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model RAMS, version 6.0, was applied to examine the impact of SST forcing on regional circulation. New Generation Sea Surface Temperature (NGSST) data were implemented to RAMS to compare the results of modeling with default SST data. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken to evaluate the effect of SST for initialization. First was the case with NGSST data (Case NG), second was the case with RAMS monthly data (Case RM) and third was the case with seasonally averaged RAMS monthly data (Case RS). Case NG showed accurate spatial distributions of SST but, the results of RM and RS were $3{\sim}4^{\circ}C$ lower than buoy observation data. By analyzing practical sea surface conditions, large difference in horizontal temperature and wind field for each run were revealed. Case RM and Case RS showed similar horizontal and vertical distributions of temperature and wind field but, Case NG estimated the intensity of sea breeze weakly and land breeze strongly. These differences were due to the difference of the temperature gradient caused by different spatial distributions of SST. Diurnal variations of temperature and wind speed for Case NG indicated great agreement with the observation data and statistics such as root mean squared error, index of agreement, regression were also better than Case RM and Case RS.

Development and Characterization of an Atmospheric Turbulence Simulator Using Two Rotating Phase Plates

  • Joo, Ji Yong;Han, Seok Gi;Lee, Jun Ho;Rhee, Hyug-Gyo;Huh, Joon;Lee, Kihun;Park, Sang Yeong
    • Current Optics and Photonics
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    • 제6권5호
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    • pp.445-452
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    • 2022
  • We developed an adaptive optics test bench using an optical simulator and two rotating phase plates that mimicked the atmospheric turbulence at Bohyunsan Observatory. The observatory was reported to have a Fried parameter with a mean value of 85 mm and standard deviation of 13 mm, often expressed as 85 ± 13 mm. First, we fabricated several phase plates to generate realistic atmospheric-like turbulence. Then, we selected a pair from among the fabricated phase plates to emulate the atmospheric turbulence at the site. The result was 83 ± 11 mm. To address dynamic behavior, we emulated the atmospheric disturbance produced by a wind flow of 8.3 m/s by controlling the rotational speed of the phase plates. Finally, we investigated how closely the atmospheric disturbance simulation emulated reality with an investigation of the measurements on the optical table. The verification confirmed that the simulator showed a Fried parameter of 87 ± 15 mm as designed, but a little slower wind velocity (7.5 ± 2.5 m/s) than expected. This was because of the nonlinear motion of the phase plates. In conclusion, we successfully mimicked the atmospheric disturbance of Bohyunsan Observatory with an error of less than 10% in terms of Fried parameter and wind velocity.