• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weighted Prediction

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Development and Validation of MRI-Based Radiomics Models for Diagnosing Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy

  • Kyung Min Kim;Heewon Hwang;Beomseok Sohn;Kisung Park;Kyunghwa Han;Sung Soo Ahn;Wonwoo Lee;Min Kyung Chu;Kyoung Heo;Seung-Koo Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.1281-1289
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    • 2022
  • Objective: Radiomic modeling using multiple regions of interest in MRI of the brain to diagnose juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to develop and validate radiomics prediction models to distinguish patients with JME from healthy controls (HCs), and to evaluate the feasibility of a radiomics approach using MRI for diagnosing JME. Materials and Methods: A total of 97 JME patients (25.6 ± 8.5 years; female, 45.5%) and 32 HCs (28.9 ± 11.4 years; female, 50.0%) were randomly split (7:3 ratio) into a training (n = 90) and a test set (n = 39) group. Radiomic features were extracted from 22 regions of interest in the brain using the T1-weighted MRI based on clinical evidence. Predictive models were trained using seven modeling methods, including a light gradient boosting machine, support vector classifier, random forest, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, gradient boosting machine, and decision tree, with radiomics features in the training set. The performance of the models was validated and compared to the test set. The model with the highest area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was chosen, and important features in the model were identified. Results: The seven tested radiomics models, including light gradient boosting machine, support vector classifier, random forest, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, gradient boosting machine, and decision tree, showed AUROC values of 0.817, 0.807, 0.783, 0.779, 0.767, 0.762, and 0.672, respectively. The light gradient boosting machine with the highest AUROC, albeit without statistically significant differences from the other models in pairwise comparisons, had accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores of 0.795, 0.818, 0.931, and 0.871, respectively. Radiomic features, including the putamen and ventral diencephalon, were ranked as the most important for suggesting JME. Conclusion: Radiomic models using MRI were able to differentiate JME from HCs.

Performance of Investment Strategy using Investor-specific Transaction Information and Machine Learning (투자자별 거래정보와 머신러닝을 활용한 투자전략의 성과)

  • Kim, Kyung Mock;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2021
  • Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

Prediction of Isothermal and Reacting Flows in Widely-Spaced Coaxial Jet, Diffusion-Flame Combustor (큰 지름비를 가지는 동축제트 확산화염 연소기내의 등온 및 연소 유동장의 예측)

  • O, Gun-Seop;An, Guk-Yeong;Kim, Yong-Mo;Lee, Chang-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.2386-2396
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    • 1996
  • A numerical simulation has been performed for isothermal and reacting flows in an exisymmetric, bluff-body research combustor. The present formulation is based on the density-weighted averaged Navier-Stokes equations together with a k-epsilon. turbulence model and a modified eddy-breakup combustion model. The PISO algorithm is employed for solution of thel Navier-Stokes system. Comparison between measurements and predictions are made for a centerline axial velocities, location of stagnation points, strength of recirculation zone, and temperature profile. Even though the numerical simulation gives acceptable agreement with experimental data in many respects, the present model is defictient in predicting the recoveryt rate of a central near-wake region, the non-isotropic turbulence effects, and variation of turbulent Schmidt number. Several possible explanations for these discrepancies have been discussed.

Prediction of Potential Species Richness of Plants Adaptable to Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula (한반도 기후변화 적응 대상 식물 종풍부도 변화 예측 연구)

  • Shin, Man-Seok;Seo, Changwan;Lee, Myungwoo;Kim, Jin-Yong;Jeon, Ja-Young;Adhikari, Pradeep;Hong, Seung-Bum
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.562-581
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    • 2018
  • This study was designed to predict the changes in species richness of plants under the climate change in South Korea. The target species were selected based on the Plants Adaptable to Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula. Altogether, 89 species including 23 native plants, 30 northern plants, and 36 southern plants. We used the Species Distribution Model to predict the potential habitat of individual species under the climate change. We applied ten single-model algorithms and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method. And then, species richness was derived from the results of individual species. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to simulate the species richness of plants in 2050 and 2070. The current species richness was predicted to be high in the national parks located in the Baekdudaegan mountain range in Gangwon Province and islands of the South Sea. The future species richness was predicted to be lower in the national park and the Baekdudaegan mountain range in Gangwon Province and to be higher for southern coastal regions. The average value of the current species richness showed that the national park area was higher than the whole area of South Korea. However, predicted species richness were not the difference between the national park area and the whole area of South Korea. The difference between current and future species richness of plants could be the disappearance of a large number of native and northern plants from South Korea. The additional reason could be the expansion of potential habitat of southern plants under climate change. However, if species dispersal to a suitable habitat was not achieved, the species richness will be reduced drastically. The results were different depending on whether species were dispersed or not. This study will be useful for the conservation planning, establishment of the protected area, restoration of biological species and strategies for adaptation of climate change.

Association between Texture Analysis Parameters and Molecular Biologic KRAS Mutation in Non-Mucinous Rectal Cancer (원발성 비점액성 직장암 환자에서 자기공명영상 기반 텍스처 분석 변수와 KRAS 유전자 변이와의 연관성)

  • Sung Jae Jo;Seung Ho Kim;Sang Joon Park;Yedaun Lee;Jung Hee Son
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.82 no.2
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    • pp.406-416
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    • 2021
  • Purpose To evaluate the association between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based texture parameters and Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS) mutation in patients with non-mucinous rectal cancer. Materials and Methods Seventy-nine patients who had pathologically confirmed rectal non-mucinous adenocarcinoma with or without KRAS-mutation and had undergone rectal MRI were divided into a training (n = 46) and validation dataset (n = 33). A texture analysis was performed on the axial T2-weighted images. The association was statistically analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test. To extract an optimal cut-off value for the prediction of KRAS mutation, a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed. The cut-off value was verified using the validation dataset. Results In the training dataset, skewness in the mutant group (n = 22) was significantly higher than in the wild-type group (n = 24) (0.221 ± 0.283; -0.006 ± 0.178, respectively, p = 0.003). The area under the curve of the skewness was 0.757 (95% confidence interval, 0.606 to 0.872) with a maximum accuracy of 71%, a sensitivity of 64%, and a specificity of 78%. None of the other texture parameters were associated with KRAS mutation (p > 0.05). When a cut-off value of 0.078 was applied to the validation dataset, this had an accuracy of 76%, a sensitivity of 86%, and a specificity of 68%. Conclusion Skewness was associated with KRAS mutation in patients with non-mucinous rectal cancer.

A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.