• Food Science and Biotechnology
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.137-142
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• 2009

One of the most important aspects of conducting this microbial risk assessment (MRA) is determining the model in microbial behaviors in food systems. However, to fully these modeling, large expenditures or newly laboratory experiments will be spent to do it. To overcome these problems, it has to be considered to develop the new strategies that can be used data in the published literatures. This study is to show whether or not the data set from the published experimental data has more value for modeling for MRA. To illustrate this suggestion, as example of data set, 4 published Salmonella survival in Cheddar cheese reports were used. Finally, using the GInaFiT tool, survival was modeled by nonlinear polynomial regression model describing the effect of temperature on Weibull model parameters. This model used data in the literatures is useful in describing behavior of Salmonella during different time and temperature conditions of cheese ripening.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.510-516
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• 1999

This paper proposes methods of estimating lifetime distribution from incomplete field data under parametric regression models. Failure-record data-failure times and covariates-reported to the manufacturer can be seriously incomplete for satisfactory inference since only reported failures are recorded. This paper assumes that within-warranty data are reported with probability $P_1$ ($\leq1$) and after-warranty data are reported with Methods of obtaining pseudo and after-warranty data are reported with $P_2$ (< $P_1$). Methods of obtaining pseudo maximum likelihood estimators(PMLEs) are outlined, their asymptotic properties are studied, and specific formulas for Weibull distribution are obtained. Simulation studies are perfumed to investigate the effects of follow-up percentage on the PMLEs.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.5-12
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• 2013

The Hawaiian beet webworm (Spoladea recurvalis) is one of the serious insect pests found on red beet (Beta vulgaris var. conditiva) in Korea. The study was conducted to investigate the development period of S. recurvalis at various constant temperatures, 15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5 and $35.0^{\circ}C$, with $65{\pm}5%$ RH and a photoperiod of 16L:8D. The developmental period from egg to pre-adult was 51.0 days at $17.5^{\circ}C$ and 14.6 days at $35.0^{\circ}C$. The developmental period of S. recurvalis was decreased with increasing temperature. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature was fitted well by linear regression analysis ($R^2{\geq}0.87$). The lower developmental threshold and effective accumulative temperature of the total immature stage were $10.4^{\circ}C$ and 384.7 degree days, respectively. The nonlinear relationship between the temperature and developmental rate was well described by the Lactin model. The relationship between the cumulative frequency and normalized distributions of the developmental period for each life stage were fitted to the Weibull function with $R^2=0.63{\sim}0.87$.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.456-462
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• 2015

365 pieces of domestic $38{\times}140{\times}3600mm$ Red pine structural lumber were machine graded conforming to a softwood structural lumber standard (KS F 3020). The allowable bending stresses calculated for each grade were compared with the values currently tabulated in the standard. Four calculation methods for lower $5^{th}$ percentile bending stress were non-parametric estimation with 75% confidence level, 2-parameter and 3-parameter Weibull distribution fit, and bending modulus of rupture (MOR)-modulus of elasticity (MOE) regression based method. Only the data set of Grades E8, E9, and E10 were statistically eligible for the $5^{th}$ percentile calculation. The MOR-MOE regression based method only was able to estimate the lower $5^{th}$ percentile values theoretically for the full range of grades. The results showed that all allowable bending stresses calculated were lower than the design values tabulated in the standard. This implies that the current machine grading system has the pitfall of structural safety. Improvement in current machine grading system could be achieved by introducing the bending strength and stiffness combination grade system.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.139-146
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• 2010

It was verified that the effect of the distance between current input point and output point on direct current potential drop (DCPD) in the material with two-dimensional surface notch. If the distance between potential drop measuring points was fixed at a certain distance, the potential drop was decreased with increasing the distance between current input and output points. DCPD technique was a useful method for surface crack sizing because the potential drop was proportional to the length of notch. In this paper, we suggest a statistical model to describe the data and want to find a significant variables to effect to potential drop. We use R program to analyze the data.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.119-125
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• 1996

Temperature-dependent development study for overwintered eggs of Pseudococcus comstocki (Kuwana) wasconducted to develop a forecasting model for egg hatch date. Hatch times of overwintered eggs were comparedat five constant temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 27$^{\circ}$C) and different collection dates. A nonlinear, four-parameterdevelopmental model with high temperature inhibition accurately described (R2=0.9948) mean developmentalrates of all temperatures. Variation in developmental times was modeled(~~=0.972w9)it h a cumulative Weibullfunction. Least-squares linear regression (rate=O.O06358[Temp.]-0.07566)d escribed development in the linearregion (15-25$^{\circ}$C) of the development curve. The low development threshold temperature was estimated 11.9"Cand 154.14 degree-days were required for complete development. The linear degree-day model (thermal summation)and rate summation model (Wagner et al. 1985) were validated using field phenology data. In degreedaymodels, mean-minus-base method, sine wave method, and rectangle method were used in estimation of dailythermal units. Mean-minus-base method was 18 to 28d late, sine wave method was 11 to 14d late, rectanglemethod was 3 to 5d late, and rate summation model was 2 to 3d late in predicting 50% hatch of overwinteredeggs. hatch of overwintered eggs.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.568-578
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• 2019

The nymphal development of the potato aphid, Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Thomas), was studied at seven constant temperatures (12.5, 15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, and 27.5±1℃), 65±5% relative humidity (RH), and 16:8 h light/dark photoperiods. The developmental investigation of M. euphorbiae was separated into two steps, the 1^st through 2^nd and the 3^rd through 4^th stages. The mortality was under 10% at six temperatures. However, it was 53.0% at 27.5℃. The developmental time of the entire nymph stage was 15.5 days at 15.0℃, 6.7 days at 25.0℃, and 9.7 days at 27.5℃. In the immature stage, the lower threshold temperature of the larvae was 2.6℃ and the thermal constant was 144.5 DD. In our analysis of the temperature-development experiment, the Logan-6 model equation was most appropriate for the non-linear regression models (r²=0.99). When the distribution completion model of each development stage of M. euphorbiae larvae was applied to the 2-parameter and 3-parameter Weibull functions, each of the model's goodness of fit was very similar (r²=0.92 and 0.93, respectively). The adult longevity decreased as the temperature increased but the total fecundity of the females at each temperature was highest at 20℃. The life table parameters were calculated using the whole lifespan periods of M. euphorbiae at the above six temperatures. The net reproduction rate (R₀) was highest at 20.0℃(63.2). The intrinsic rate of increase (r_m) was highest at 25℃(1.393). The finite rate of doubling time (D_t) was the shortest at 25.0℃(2.091). The finite rate of increase (λ) was also the highest at 25.0℃(1.393). The mean generation time(T) was the shortest at 25.0℃(9.929).

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.158-166
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• 2008

The pumpkin fruit fly, Bactrocera depressa (Tephritidae: Diptera), is one of the most important pests in Cucurbitaceae plants. This study was conducted to investigate the basic ecology of B. depressa, and to develop a forecasting model for predicting the time of adult emergence in early season. In green pumpkin producing farms, the oviposition punctures caused by the oviposition of B. depressa occurred first between mid- and late July, peaked in late August, and then decreased in mid-September followed by disappearance of the symptoms in late September, during which oviposition activity of B. depressa is considered active. In full-ripened pumpkin producing farms, damaged fruits abruptly increased from early Auguest, because the decay of pumpkins caused by larval development began from that time. B. depressa produced a mean oviposition puncture of 2.2 per fruit and total 28.8-29.8 eggs per fruit. Adult emergence from overwintering pupae, which was monitored using a ground emergence trap, was first observed between mid- and late May, and peaked during late May to early June. The development times from overwintering pupae to adult emergence decreased with increasing temperature: 59.0 days at $15^{\circ}C$, 39.3 days at $20^{\circ}C$, 25.8 days at$25^{\circ}C$ and 21.4 days at $30^{\circ}C$. The pupae did not develop to adult at $35^{\circ}C$. The lower developmental threshold temperature was calculated as $6.8^{\circ}C$ by linear regression. The thermal constant was 482.3 degree-days. The non-linear model of Gaussian equation well explained the relationship between the development rate and temperature. The Weibull function provided a good fit for the distribution of development times of overwintering pupae. The predicted date of 50% adult emergence by a degree-day model showed one day deviation from the observed actual date. Also, the output estimated by rate summation model, which was consisted of the developmental model and the Weibull function, well pursued the actual pattern of cumulative frequency curve of B. depressa adult emergence. Consequently, it is expected that the present results could be used to establish the management strategy of B. depressa.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.379-393
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• 2020

A terminal event such as death may censor an intermediate event such as relapse, but not vice versa in semi-competing risks data, which is often seen in medicine, public health, and epidemiology. We propose a Weibull regression model with a normal frailty to analyze semi-competing risks data when all three transition times of the illness-death model are possibly interval-censored. We construct the conditional likelihood separately depending on the types of subjects: still alive with or without the intermediate event, dead with or without the intermediate event, and dead with the intermediate event missing. Optimal parameter estimates are obtained from the iterative quasi-Newton algorithm after the marginalization of the full likelihood using the adaptive importance sampling. We illustrate the proposed method with extensive simulation studies and PAQUID (Personnes Agées Quid) data.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.327-336
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• 2014

Recurrent event data occurs when a subject experiences same type of event repeatedly and is found in various areas such as the social sciences, Economics, medicine and public health. To analyze recurrent event data either a total time or a gap time is adopted according to research interest. In this paper, we analyze recurrent event data with incomplete observation gap using a gap time scale. That is, some subjects leave temporarily from a study and return after a while. But it is not available when the observation gaps terminate. We adopt an interval censoring mechanism for estimating the termination time. Furthermore, to model the association among gap times of a subject, a frailty effect is incorporated into a model. Programs included in Survival package of R program are implemented to estimate the covariate effect as well as the variance of frailty effect. YTOP (Young Traffic Offenders Program) data is analyzed with both proportional hazard model and a weibull regression model.