• 제목/요약/키워드: Weibull probability plot

검색결과 14건 처리시간 0.02초

배전기기 고장률 추출에 관한 연구 (A Study on Failure Rate Extraction of Power Distribution System Equipment)

  • 문종필;김재철;이희태;추철민;안재민
    • 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국조명전기설비학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.366-368
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate (TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential (random failure) and Weibull (aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate (MFR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR.

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확률분포 특성을 이용한 탱커부두에서의 선박접안속도 예측값 추정 (Estimation of Berthing Velocity Using Probability Distribution Characteristics in Tanker Terminal)

  • 이상원;조장원;조익순
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제43권3호
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    • pp.186-196
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    • 2019
  • 선박의 접안과정 중 발생하는 접안에너지는 접안속도와 밀접한 관계가 있다. 접안속도가 과다할 경우 선박 및 부두에 손상이 발생하는 접안사고로 이어질 수 있으므로 적절한 접안속도를 설계하는 것이 중요하다. 선박접안속도의 경우, 일반적으로 대수정규분포를 따른다고 가정하고 있으나 국내에서는 이에 대한 검증이나 연구가 없어 해외의 사례를 바탕으로 설계접안속도를 설정하고 있는 상황이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 부두의 선박접안속도 분석을 통계학적으로 접근하여 실측데이터와 확률분포를 비교하여 가장 적합한 확률분포를 찾고자 하였다. 적합도 검정으로는 K-S(Kolmogorov-Smirnov) 검정, A-D(Anderson-Darling) 검정, Q-Q(Quantile-Quantile) 플롯 등을 이용하여 접안속도 실측치 분포에 적합한 확률분포를 확인하였다. 분석 결과, 접안속도의 빈도분포는 선박의 재화상태에 따라 만재 시, 대수정규분포, 경하 시에는 와이블분포와 적합함을 확인하였다. 또한 적합도 검정 결과를 이용하여 초과확률에 해당하는 접안속도 예측치를 산출하였다. 이 예측값과 해당 부두의 설계접안속도와 비교 해본 결과, 예측값이 설계값을 크게 초과함을 확인하였다. 이를 통해 설계 시의 접안속도가 현실과 맞지 않게 다소 낮게 설정되어 있음을 알 수 있으며, 이 결과를 바탕으로 적정 설계접안속도 산정법 개선에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Electrical Insulation Properties of Nanocomposites with SiO2 and MgO Filler

  • Jeong, In-Bum;Kim, Joung-Sik;Lee, Jong-Yong;Hong, Jin-Woong;Shin, Jong-Yeol
    • Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.261-265
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we attempt to improve the electrical characteristics of epoxy resin at high temperature (above $80^{\circ}C$) by adding magnesium oxide (MgO), which has high thermal conductivity. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of the dispersion of specimens with added MgO reveals that they are evenly dispersed without concentration. The dielectric breakdown characteristics of $SiO_2$ and MgO nanocomposites are tested by measurements at different temperatures to investigate the filler's effect on the dielectric breakdown characteristics. The dielectric breakdown strength of specimens with added $SiO_2$ decreases slowly below $80^{\circ}C$ (low temperature) but decreases rapidly above $80^{\circ}C$ (high temperature). However, the gradient of the dielectric breakdown strength of specimens with added MgO is slow at both low and high temperatures. The dielectric breakdown strength of specimens with 0.4 wt% $SiO_2$ is the best among the specimens with added $SiO_2$, and that of specimens with 3.0 wt% and 5.0 wt% MgO is the best among those with added MgO. Moreover, the dielectric strength of specimens with 3.0 wt% MgO at high temperatures is approximately 53.3% higher than that of specimens with added $SiO_2$ at $100^{\circ}C$, and that of specimens with 5.0 wt% of MgO is approximately 59.34% higher under the same conditions. The dielectric strength of MgO is believed to be superior to that of $SiO_2$ owing to enhanced thermal radiation because the thermal conductivity rate of MgO (approximately 42 $W/m{\cdot}K$) is approximately 32 times higher than that of $SiO_2$ (approximately 1.3 $W/m{\cdot}K$). We also confirmed that the allowable breakdown strength of specimens with added MgO at $100^{\circ}C$ is within the error range when the breakdown probability of all specimens is 40%. A breakdown probability of up to 40% represents a stable dielectric strength in machinery and apparatus design.

EPR의 가속 열화에 의한 기계적 특성 및 통계적 평가 (Mechanical Properties and Statistical Evaluation of EPR According to the Accelerated Degradation)

  • 김지연;양종석;이길수;성백용;방정환;박대희
    • 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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    • 제28권8호
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    • pp.501-507
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, EPR (ethylene propylene rubber) insulation material was accelerated degradation test at $121^{\circ}C$, $136^{\circ}C$, $151^{\circ}C$, and experiment the typical EAB (elongation at break) at mechanical characteristics analysis. It is shown that the failure-time at the point of 50% of the initial value of Elongation rate to obtain the activation energy. The failure-time was shown each 5,219 hr, 3,165 hr, and 668 hr at three temperatures. In order to derive the activation energy, Arrhenius methodology was applied. Also, we got the Arrhenius plot from three accelerated temperatures. The activation energy values got 0.98 eV from EAB test. The experimental data were evaluated for estimating the probability density, and the suitable distribution by using statistical program MINITAB. It is shown that EAB data by the acceleration thermal degradation is most suitable for the Weibull distribution.