• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.107-114
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• 2013

Modelling of failures is an important element of reliability modelling. Empirical modelling approach suitable for complex item is explored in this paper. First step of the empirical modelling approach is to plot hazard function, density function, Weibull probability plot as well as cumulative intensity function to see which model fits best for the given data. Next step of the empirical modelling approach is select appropriate model for the data and fit the parametric model accordingly and estimate the parameters.

• 한국세라믹학회지
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• 제36권10호
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• pp.1069-1074
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• 1999

• 한국생산제조학회지
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.804-811
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• 2010

The fatigue crack propagation is stochastic in nature, because the variables affecting the fatigue behavior are random and have uncertainty. Therefore, the fatigue life prediction is critical for the design and the maintenance of many structural components. In this study, fatigue experiments are conducted on the specimens of magnesium alloy AZ31 under various conditions such as thickness of specimen, the load ratio and the loading condition. The probability distribution fit to the fatigue failure life are investigated through a probability plot paper by these conditions. The probabilities of failure at various conditions are also estimated. The fatigue design life is predicted by using the Weibull distribution.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.251-258
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• 2020

Sewer deterioration models are needed to forecast the remaining life expectancy of sewer networks by assessing their conditions. In this study, the serious defect (or condition state 3) occurrence probability, at which sewer rehabilitation program should be implemented, was evaluated using four probability distribution functions such as normal, lognormal, exponential, and Weibull distribution. A sample of 252 km of CCTV-inspected sewer pipe data in city Z was collected in the first place. Then the effective data (284 sewer sections of 8.15 km) with reliable information were extracted and classified into 3 groups considering the sub-catchment area, sewer material, and sewer pipe size. Anderson-Darling test was conducted to select the most fitted probability distribution of sewer defect occurrence as Weibull distribution. The shape parameters (β) and scale parameters (η) of Weibull distribution were estimated from the data set of 3 classified groups, including standard errors, 95% confidence intervals, and log-likelihood values. The plot of probability density function and cumulative distribution function were obtained using the estimated parameter values, which could be used to indicate the quantitative level of risk on occurrence of CS3. It was estimated that sewer data group 1, group 2, and group 3 has CS3 occurrence probability exceeding 50% at 13th-year, 11th-year, and 16th-year after the installation, respectively. For every data groups, the time exceeding the CS3 occurrence probability of 90% was also predicted to be 27th- to 30th-year after the installation.

• Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.185-194
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• 2018

In this study, the extreme sloshing pressure was predicted using various statistical models: three-parameter Weibull distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, generalized extreme value distribution, and three-parameter log-logistic distribution. The estimation of sloshing impact pressure is important in design of liquid cargo tank in severe sea state. In order to get the extreme values of local impact pressures, a lot of model tests have been carried out and statistical analysis has been performed. Three-parameter Weibull distribution and generalized Pareto distribution are widely used as the statistical analysis method in sloshing phenomenon, but generalized extreme value distribution and three-parameter log-logistic distribution are added in this study. Additionally, statistical distributions are fitted to peak pressure data using three different parameter estimation methods. The data were obtained from a three-dimensional sloshing model text conducted at Seoul National University. The loading conditions were 20%, 50%, and 95% of tank height, and the analysis was performed based on the measured impact pressure on four significant panels with large sloshing impacts. These fittings were compared by observing probability of exceedance diagrams and probability plot correlation coefficient test for goodness-of-fit.

• 마이크로전자및패키징학회지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.15-21
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• 2011

전자기기의 고집적화를 위해 실리콘 웨이퍼의 두께가 점점 얇아지고 있으며 이로 인해 제조공정 중 균열이나 파손이 발생할 가능성이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 300 ${\mu}m$~100 ${\mu}m$ 두께의 반도체용 단결정 실리콘 웨이퍼의 파단 강도 및 파괴특성을 평가하였다. 기계적 연마를 통해 두께 (300, 200, 180, 160, 150, 100 ${\mu}m$)가 다른 실리콘 웨이퍼를 준비하였다. 하나의 웨이퍼에서 40개의 실리콘 다이(크기 : 62.5 mm${\times}$4 mm)를 얻어 4점 굽힘시험을 통해 평균 강도값을 구하였다. 강도분포의 통계적 해석을 위해 와이블 선도를 이용하여 형상인자(와이블 계수)와 크기인자(확률적 파괴강도)를 얻었다. 취성 실리콘 다이의 시편 크기(두께)효과와 파단 확률이 고려된 통계적 파단강도 값을 실리콘 다이 두께의 함수로 얻었다. 관찰된 파괴양상을 측정된 파단강도와 관련하여 고찰하였다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제28권2A호
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• pp.197-205
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• 2008

본 연구에서는 광양-묘도 지역의 평균풍속을 추정하기 위하여, 일별 최대 풍속과 해당 방향에 대한 결합분포확률의 통계학적 해석에 극한값 확률분포 모델이 사용되었다. 이를 위하여, 교량 가설지점 인근의 기상관측소에 대한 일별 최대풍속 및 해당풍향의 데이터로부터 각각의 관측소에 대한 일별 최대기록의 빈도를 조사하였으며, 16방위 및 전방위에 대한 년 최대풍속의 표본을 추출하였다. 이러한 풍속기록은 Gumbel 및 Weibull 분포모델에 적용하였으며, 모멘트방법 및 최소제곱법 등을 통해 모수를 추정하였다. 또한, PPCC 검사를 통해 분포모델 및 모수의 적합 여부를 검사하였다. 적합 여부가 판단된 모수로부터, 해당 관측소별로 데이터의 표본 크기 및 교량 가설지점으로부터의 거리에 대한 요소를 고려하여 16방위 및 전방위에 대한 년 최대풍속을 추정하였다.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.293-308
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• 2014

Unlike the traditional displacement type vessels, the high speed planing crafts are supported by the lift forces which are highly non-linear. This non-linear phenomenon causes their motions in an irregular seaway to be non-Gaussian. In general, it may not be possible to express the probability distribution of such processes by an analytical formula. Also the process might not be stationary or ergodic in which case the statistical behavior of the motion to be constantly changing with time. Therefore the extreme values of such a process can no longer be calculated using the analytical formulae applicable to Gaussian processes. Since closed form analytical solutions do not exist, recourse is taken to fitting a distribution to the data and estimating the statistical properties of the process from this fitted probability distribution. The peaks over threshold analysis and fitting of the Generalized Pareto Distribution are explored in this paper as an alternative to Weibull, Generalized Gamma and Rayleigh distributions in predicting the short term extreme value of a random process.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권11호
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• pp.548-556
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• 2005

Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is very important to both power utilities and customers. It present the probabilistic number and duration of interruption such as failure rate, SATDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI. However, it has a fatal weakness at reliability index because of accuracy of failure rate. In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate(TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) in Korea. For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential(random failure) and Weibull(aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate(MfR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR

• 한국세라믹학회지
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• 제36권10호
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• pp.1062-1068
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• 1999

상온 25$^{\circ}C$의 증류수에 단일 열충격을 시행한 후 ball-on-3 ball test로 강도를 측정하고 강도의 변화를 관찰하였다. 시편은 상용 알루미나 시편을 사용하였고, disc 형태의 시편에 대하여 열충격 후의 균열의 모양과 강도 시험 후의 균열의 모양을 잉크 침투법에 의해 관찰하였다. 통계적인 파괴 확률방법을 제시하였으며, thermal shock Weibull plot을 이용하여 3점 꺾임 강도와 비교하였다. ball-on-3 ball test 강도에 미치는 인자에 대해 통계학적인 접근을 통해 관찰한 결과, 시편중심에서 균열까지의 거리가 균열 밀도보다 더 큰 영향을 미치고 있음을 알 수 있었다.