• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.390-396
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• 2012

The present paper extends the idea of tightened-normal-tightened sampling scheme to group acceptance sampling plans under the time truncated life tests. We consider three famous distributions that are widely used in the area of reliability such as the generalized exponential distribution, the Weibull distribution, and the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution in the proposed sampling plan. The plan parameters are determined such that the producer's risk and the consumer's risk are satisfied at the specified median life. Extensive tables showing plan parameters are provided at various values of the experiment time and the consumer's risk for each of three distributions for the practical use. Some examples are given to illustrate the procedure of the proposed plan.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.513-521
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• 2012

The aim of this study was to determine the brittle fracture behavior of reactor pressure vessel steel by considering the temperature dependence of a damage model. A multi-island genetic algorithm was linked to a Weibull stress model, which is the model typically used for brittle fracture evaluation, to improve the calibration procedure. The improved calibration procedure and fracture toughness test data for SA508 carbon steel at the temperatures $-60^{\circ}C$, $-80^{\circ}C$, and $-100^{\circ}C$ were used to decide the damage parameters required for the brittle fracture evaluation. The model was found to show temperature dependence, similar to the case of NUREG/CR-6930. Finally, on the basis of the quantification of the difference between 2- and 3-parameter Weibull stress models, an engineering equation that can help obtain more realistic fracture behavior by using the simpler 2-parameter Weibull stress model was proposed.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.83-94
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• 2010

The objective of this study was to determine the best probability distributions of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in Korea. Data observed at 32 stations in Korea were analyzed using the L-moment ratio diagram and the average weighted distance (AWD) to identify the best probability distributions of each precipitation. The probability distribution was best represented by 3-parameter Weibull distribution (W3) for the annual precipitation, 3-parameter lognormal distribution (LN3) for spring and autumn seasons, and generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) for summer and winter seasons. The best probability distribution models for monthly precipitation were LN3 for January, W3 for February and July, 2-parameter Weibull distribution (W2) for March, generalized Pareto distribution (GPA) for April, September, October and November, GEV for May and June, and log-Pearson type III (LP3) for August and December. However, from the goodness-of-fit test for the best probability distributions of the best fit, GPA for April, September, October and November, and LN3 for January showed considerably high reject rates due to computational errors in estimation of the probability distribution parameters and relatively higher AWD values. Meanwhile, analyses using data from 55 stations including additional 23 stations indicated insignificant differences to those using original data. Further studies using more long-term data are needed to identify more optimal probability distributions for each precipitation.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.234-243
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• 1992

Fatigue crack initiation life has a wide scatter and this makes the fatigue design of structural members difficult. In order to make the fatigue life distribution clear, it is required to prepare a large number of specimens and repeat the fatigue tests under the same loading condition. Such fatigue tests usually take much time and cost. In this study, a fatigue testing method using a multi-notched test specimen for the purpose of estimating the distribution function of fatigue crack initiation life by small number of fatigue tests is used. The purpose of this study is to verify the above fatigue testing method of a multi-notched specimen by using Bayesian reliability analysis, Least square method and Skewness method for the determination of unknown Weibull parameters. The multi-notched specimen is a specimen in which several tens of statistically identical notches are prepared.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.1 s.174
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• pp.39-50
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• 2007

This paper presents applications of the log-linear ROCOF(rate-of-occurrence-of-failure) and the Weibull ROCOF to model the failure rate of individual cast iron pipes in a water distribution system and provides a method of estimating the economically optimal replacement time of the pipes using the 'modified time-scale'. The performance of the two ROCOFs is examined using the maximized log-likelihood estimates of the ROCOFs for the two types of failure data: 'failure-time data' and 'failure-number data'. The optimal replacement time equations for the two models are developed by applying the 'modified time-scale' to ensure the numerical convergence of the estimated values of the model parameters. The methodology is applied to the case study water distribution cast iron pipes and it is found that the log-linear ROCOF has better modeling capability than the Weibull ROCOF when the 'failure-time data' is used. Furthermore, the 'failure-time data' is determined to be more appropriate for both ROCOFs compared to the 'failure-number data' in terms of the ROCOF modeling performances for the water mains under study, implying that recording each failure time results in better modeling of the failure rate than recording failure numbers in some time intervals.

• Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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• v.7 no.s1
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• pp.171-178
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• 1998

The microstructure and properties of plasma-sprayed coatings depend on a great number of spraying parameters, random factors, which lead to vibration in these spraying parameters, may in some degree influence the microstructure and properties of the coatings. Therefore, the property values appear certain distributions, and the description and comparison of the properties of plasma-sprayed coatings should be performed employing statistical analysis. In this paper, $Cr_3C_2$-Nicr coatings of different thickness were sprayed onto stainless steel using atmosphere plasma system and adopting three kinds of gun translation speeds. Then the microhardness measurements were performed on polished surface of the coatings. Forty readings were taken and statistically analyzed by calculating the characteristic values, estimating and comparing the means, and assessing whether they belonged to the Normal or Weibull Distribution. This study has found that statistical analysis could discriminate influence of spraying parameters and coating design on microhardness of the $Cr_3C_2$-Nicr coatings from random vibration, which showed that the microharness of the $Cr_3C_2$-Nicr coatings were related to gun translation speed coating thickness.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.355-361
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to establish the life test method for ceramic heater and identify the failure mechanisms. Methods: We do accelerated life test in the condition of thermal shock and failure analysis for failed samples. Conclusion: The main failure mechanisms of ceramic heater are identified as overstress failure mechanisms as results of failure analysis and the shape parameters of weibull distribution by accelerated life test are identified as 0.8, 1.2 and 0.4 each at $400^{\circ}C$, $600^{\circ}C$ and $900^{\circ}C$. At $900^{\circ}C$, the shape parameter 0.4 means that It is exactly initial failure caused that the stress exceeds the strength of ceramic heater highly and the shape parameters 0.8, 1.2 at $400^{\circ}C$, $600^{\circ}C$ means that the shape parameters are around 1.0 so that the main failure mechanism is overstress failure which is same result as failure analysis. It means that the appropriate life test method for ceramic heater is reliability qualification test method rather than accelerated life test.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.9
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• pp.4049-4054
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• 2014

Background: Race and ethnicity are significant factors in predicting survival time of breast cancer patients. In this study, we applied advanced statistical methods to predict the survival of White non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients, who were diagnosed between the years 1973 and 2009 in the United States (U.S.). Materials and Methods: Demographic data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were used for the purpose of this study. Nine states were randomly selected from 12 U.S. cancer registries. A stratified random sampling method was used to select 2,000 female breast cancer patients from these nine states. We compared four types of advanced statistical probability models to identify the best-fit model for the White non-Hispanic female breast cancer survival data. Three model building criterion were used to measure and compare goodness of fit of the models. These include Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). In addition, we used a novel Bayesian method and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to determine the posterior density function of the parameters. After evaluating the model parameters, we selected the model having the lowest DIC value. Using this Bayesian method, we derived the predictive survival density for future survival time and its related inferences. Results: The analytical sample of White non-Hispanic women included 2,000 breast cancer cases from the SEER database (1973-2009). The majority of cases were married (55.2%), the mean age of diagnosis was 63.61 years (SD = 14.24) and the mean survival time was 84 months (SD = 35.01). After comparing the four statistical models, results suggested that the exponentiated Weibull model (DIC= 19818.220) was a better fit for White non-Hispanic females' breast cancer survival data. This model predicted the survival times (in months) for White non-Hispanic women after implementation of precise estimates of the model parameters. Conclusions: By using modern model building criteria, we determined that the data best fit the exponentiated Weibull model. We incorporated precise estimates of the parameter into the predictive model and evaluated the survival inference for the White non-Hispanic female population. This method of analysis will assist researchers in making scientific and clinical conclusions when assessing survival time of breast cancer patients.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.341-349
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• 2018

Recently, it has been reported that the whipping response, which is the elastic phenomenon of the ship, may be one of the causes of the ship accident. Unfortunately, the commonly used methodology for evaluating the whipping effect effectively has not been developed yet. In this study, we developed a procedure to estimate the whipping effect of hull in actual design stage. Fluid-structure interaction analysis was performed for a dominant short term sea state to obtain the time series data of vertical wave bending moment including the whipping response by slamming. In order to estimate the whipping effect by using the time series, some signal processing and statistical techniques such as low pass filtering, Weibull fitting and so on, were applied. the hydro-elasticity analysis was performed on container ships of various sizes to evaluate the whipping effect. The parameters that can affect the response of the hull vibration was selected and the effect of these parameters on whipping was analyzed.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.54-59
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• 2003

The characteristics of the parameters for the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life, using the non-Gaussian random process simulation method is investigated. In this paper, the material resistance to fatigue crack growth is treated as a spatial random process, which varies randomly on the crack surface. Using the previous experimental data, the crack length equals the number of cycle curves that are simulated. The results are obtained for constant stress intensity factor range conditions with stress ratios of R=0.2, three specimen thickness of 6, 12 and 18mm, and the four stress intensity level. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth life seems to follow the 3-parameter Wiubull,, showing a slight dependence on specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The shape parameter, $\alpha$, does not show the dependency of thickness and stress intensity level, but the scale parameter, $\beta$, and location parameter, ${\gamma}$, are decreased by increasing the specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The slope for the stress intensity level is larger than the specimen thickness.