• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.27-36
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• 2005

유한고장 속성을 가진 비동질적인 포아송 과정에 기초한 모형들에서 잔존 결함 1개당 고장 발생률은 일반적으로 상수, 흑은 단조증가 및 단조 감소 추세를 가지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 잔존 결함 1개당 고장 발생률이 단조증가(혹은, 단조감소) 속성을 가진 일반화 감마분포를 이용한 신뢰성 모형을 제안하였다. 일반화 감마분포를 이용한 유한 속성 비동질적 모형에 대한 모수추정은 고장 간격시간으로 구성된 실측자료를 이용하여 모수 추정을 수행하였다. 일반적 감마분포 형상모수의 제안을 위하여 특수한 형태를 적용하였다. 본 논문에서는 기존 모형의 분포를 적용하고 추가적인 소프트웨어 고장 해석을 위하여 감마 및 와이블 분포를 이용하였다. 일반화 감마 분포모형의 고장자료분석을 위하여 산술적 및 라플라스 검정, 적합도 검정, 편의 검정 등을 이용하였다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.133-145
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• 1995

고장원인이 여럿인 수리불가능한 제품에 대하여 사용환경에서 얻어진 고장데이터와 추적조사에 의해 얻어진 설명변수에 관한 데이터를 이용하여 제품의 고장원인별 수명분포를 추정한 배도선 등(1995)의 연구를 수리가능한 제품의 경우로 확장하였다. 수명분포의 모수와 설명변수가 대수선형 관계일 때 비동질성 포아송과정을 이용하여 의사우도함수를 유도하고, 고장원인별 수명이 와이블 분포를 따를 때의 의사 최우추정량과 점근분산을 구하였다. 추적조사 방법으로는 보증기간동안 고장이 발생하지 않은 제품의 일정비율을 추적조사하는 경우와 총 시험제품의 일정비율을 랜덤하게 선택하고 이들 중에서 보증기간동안 한번도 고장이 발생하지 않은 제품에 대해서만 추적조사하는 경우를 고려하였다.

• 한국관개배수논문집
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.34-50
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• 1997

This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by Log Pearson Type III distribution model of the annual maximum series at five watersheds along Geum, Yeong San and Seom Jin river systems. Design floods obtained by different methods for evaluatio

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제14권10호
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• pp.1041-1050
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• 2000

In this paper the effect of specimen thickness on fatigue crack growth with the spatial distribution of material properties is presented. Basically, the material resistance to fatigue crack growth is treated as a spatial stochastic process, which varies randomly on the crack surface. The theoretical autocorrelation functions of fatigue crack growth resistance with specimen thickness are discussed for several correlation lengths. Constant ${\Delta}K$ fatigue crack growth tests were also performed on CT type specimens with three different thicknesses of BS 4360 steel. Applying the proposed stochastic model and statistical analysis procedure, the experimental data were analyzed for different specimen thicknesses for determining the autocorrelation functions and probability distributions of the fatigue crack growth resistance.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 1996년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.954-958
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• 1996

An analysis method for the reliability of ceramic structures subjected to thermal shocks is presented, Flaws with the size of given probability distribution function are assumed to be distributed at random with a certain density per unit volume in the structures. Criterions for crack instability are derived for brittle solids under general thermal stresses. A probabilistic failure model is presented to study the probability of crack instability for blittle solids containing cracks with uncertain crack size. The reliabilities of brittle structures are evaluated based on the weakest-link hypothesis, which states that a structure fails when the cracks in any differential volume become unstable. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.75-85
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• 2008

In this paper, we compared domestic with foreign pilot lamps installed on the instrument board or electronic modules (car audio, air-conditional system, etc.) of an automotive vehicle by an accelerated life test in order to estimate the life of domestic pilot lamps. An accelerated life test method was developed and the relation of the life and voltage stress was analyzed. The main results are as follows; i) $B_{10}$ life of pilot lamp is above 5,000 hours, vehicle travel time for 10 years. ii) the life of domestic pilot lamp is longer than that of foreign thing. iii) the life distribution of domestic pilot lamp is wider than that of foreign thing. iv) it is possible to promote import replacement of automobile pilot lamp.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.479-496
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• 2016

In this survey, we present a modified inverse moment estimation of parameters and its applications. We use a specific model to demonstrate its principle and how to apply this method in practice. The estimation of unknown parameters is considered. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters is obtained for the classical maximum likelihood estimation. Inverse moment and modified inverse moment estimators are proposed and their properties are studied. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare the performances of these estimators. As far as the biases and mean squared errors are concerned, modified inverse moment estimator works the best in all cases considered for estimating the unknown parameters. Its performance is followed by inverse moment estimator and maximum likelihood estimator, especially for small sample sizes.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.316-324
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the replacement cycle applied age replacement policy by reliability analysis based on railway vehicle contactor's failure history data. Method: We performed reliability analysis based on railway vehicle contactor's failure history data. We found a suitable distribution by goodness of fit test and predicted the reliability through estimation of scale & shape parameter. Considering cost information we determined the replacement cycle that minimize the opportunity cost. Result: Suitable distribution was the Weibull and scale parameter & shape parameter are estimated by reliability analysis. The replacement cycle was predicted and MTTF, $B_6$ percentile life were suggested additionally. Conclusion: We confirmed that failure rate type of railway vehicle contactor is degradation model having a time dependent characteristic and examined the replacement cycle in our country's operating environment. We expect that this study result contribute to railway operation agency for maintenance policy decision.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권17호
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• pp.7923-7927
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• 2015

Background: The Cox PH model is one of the most significant statistical models in studying survival of patients. But, in the case of patients with long-term survival, it may not be the most appropriate. In such cases, a cure rate model seems more suitable. The purpose of this study was to determine clinical factors associated with cure rate of patients with breast cancer. Materials and Methods: In order to find factors affecting cure rate (response), a non-mixed cure rate model with negative binomial distribution for latent variable was used. Variables selected were recurrence cancer, status for HER2, estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR), size of tumor, grade of cancer, stage of cancer, type of surgery, age at the diagnosis time and number of removed positive lymph nodes. All analyses were performed using PROC MCMC processes in the SAS 9.2 program. Results: The mean (SD) age of patients was equal to 48.9 (11.1) months. For these patients, 1, 5 and 10-year survival rates were 95, 79 and 50 percent respectively. All of the mentioned variables were effective in cure fraction. Kaplan-Meier curve showed cure model's use competence. Conclusions: Unlike other variables, existence of ER and PR positivity will increase probability of cure in patients. In the present study, Weibull distribution was used for the purpose of analysing survival times. Model fitness with other distributions such as log-N and log-logistic and other distributions for latent variable is recommended.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.266-273
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 국내 서해안의 해상풍력 발전을 위한 적지를 검토하기 위해 기상청에서 제공하는 6개 지점(서수도, 가대암, 십이동파, 갈매여, 해수서, 지귀도)의 2014년 연간 풍속 자료를 수집하고 이를 분석하였다. 관측된 풍속 자료는 Rayleigh 모델과 Weibull 모델에 적합하였으며, 풍속 출현빈도에 따라 연간 부존량을 추정하였다. 풍력발전기 모델로는 GWE-3kH(3 kW급) 터빈과 GWE-10KU (10 kW급) 터빈을 선정하였으며 이의 성능곡선을 이용하였다. 그 결과, 서수도, 가대암, 십이동파, 갈매여, 해수서, 지귀도의 연평균 풍속은 각각 4.60, 4.5, 5.00, 5.13, 5.51, 5.90 m/s로 나타났으며, 연간 발전량은 10,622.752, 11,313.05, 13,509.41, 14,899.55, 17,106.13, 19,660.85kWh로 나타났다. 6개 지점의 연평균에너지 밀도는 전체적으로 poor와 marginal 계급으로 나타났으며, 터빈 이용률은 지귀도가 22.44%로 가장 높게 나타났다.