• 신재생에너지
• /
• 제20권2호
• /
• pp.2-16
• /
• 2024

Various loads induced by marine environmental conditions, such as waves, currents, and wind, are crucial for the operation and viability of offshore wind power (OWP) systems. In particular, waves have a significant impact on the stress and fatigue load of offshore structures, and highly reliable design parameters should be derived through extreme value analysis (EVA) techniques. In this study, extreme wave analyses were conducted with various Weibull distribution models to determine the reliable design parameters of an OWP system suitable for the Ulsan area. Forty-three years of long-term hindcast data generated by a numerical wave model were adopted as the analyses data, and the least-squares method was used to estimate the parameters of the distribution function for EVA. The inverse first-order reliability method was employed as the EVA technique. The obtained results were compared among themselves under the assumption that the marginal probability distributions were 2p, 3p, and exponentiated Weibull distributions.

• Corrosion Science and Technology
• /
• 제12권2호
• /
• pp.93-101
• /
• 2013

The object of this work is to establish an electrochemical noise(EN) measurement technique combined with a direct current potential drop(DCPD) method for monitoring of localized corrosion cracking of nickel-based alloy, and to analyze its mechanism. The electrochemical current and potential noises were measured under various conditions of applied stress to a compact tension specimen in a simulated primary water chemistry of a pressurized water reactor. The amplitude and frequency of the EN signals were evaluated in both time and frequency domains based on a shot noise theory, and then quantitatively analyzed using statistical Weibull distribution function. From the spectral analysis, the effect of the current application in DCPD was found to be effectively excluded from the EN signals generated from the localized corrosion cracking. With the aid of a microstructural analysis, the relationship between EN signals and the localized corrosion cracking mechanism was investigated by comparing the shape parameter of Weibull distribution of a mean time-to-failure.

• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국신뢰성학회 2004년도 정기학술대회
• /
• pp.129-137
• /
• 2004

This paper presents an accelerated life test for burnout of tungsten filament of incandescent lamp. From failure analyses of field samples, it is shown that their root causes are local heating or hot sports in the filament caused by tungsten evaporation and wire sag. Finite element analysis is performed to evaluate the effect of vibration and impact for burnout, but any points of stress concentration or structural weakness are not found in the sample. To estimate the burnout life of lamp, an accelerated life test is planned by using quality function deployment and fractional factorial design, where voltage, vibration, and temperature are selected as accelerating variables. We assumed that Weibull lifetime distribution and a generalized linear model of life-stress relationship hold through goodness of fit test and test for common shape parameter of the distribution. Using accelerated life testing software, we estimated the common shape parameter of Weibull distribution, life-stress relationship, and accelerating factor.

• 한국해양공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국해양공학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.104-109
• /
• 2002

In this paper, a statistical analysis of fatigue crack growth behavior under constant amplitude loads has been carried out. Fatigue crack growth tests were conducted on sixteen pre-cracked compact tension (CT) specimens of the pressure vessel (SPV50) steel in controlled identical load and environmental conditions. The assessment of the statistical distribution of fatigue crack growth experimental data obtained from SPV50 steel was studied and also the correlation of the parameter C and m in the Paris-Erdogan law was discussed. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth life seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull. The fatigue crack growth rate seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull and the log-normal distribution. The coefficient of variation (COV) of fatigue crack growth life was observed to decrease as the crack grows. A strong negative linear correlation exists between the coefficient C and the exponent m in Paris model. Fatigue crack growth rate data shows a normal distribution for both m and logC.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
• /
• 제27권6호
• /
• pp.923-929
• /
• 2003

In this paper, an analysis of fatigue crack growth behavior from a statistical point of view has been carried out. Fatigue crack growth tests were conducted on sixteen pre-cracked compact tension (CT) specimens of the pressure vessel (SPV50) steel in controlled identical load and environmental conditions. The assessment of the statistical distribution of fatigue crack growth experimental data obtained from SPV50 steel was studied and also the correlation of the parameter C and m in the Paris-Erdogan law was discussed. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth life seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull. The fatigue crack growth rate seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull and the log-normal distribution. The coefficient of variation (COV) of fatigue crack growth life was observed to decrease as the crack grows. Fatigue crack growth rate data shows a normal distribution for both m and logC. A strong negative linear correlation exists between the coefficient C and the exponent m.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• 제21권3호
• /
• pp.291-298
• /
• 2018

In this study, the flexural fatigue performance of concrete beams made with 100% Coarse Recycled Concrete Aggregates (RCA) and 100% Coarse Natural Aggregates (NA) were statistically commanded. For this purpose, the experimental fatigue test results of earlier researcher were investigated using two parameter Weibull distribution. The shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution function was evaluated using seven numerical methods namely, Graphical method (GM), Least-Squares (LS) regression of Y on X, Least-Squares (LS) regression of X on Y, Empherical Method of Lysen (EML), Mean Standard Deviation Method (MSDM), Energy Pattern Factor Method (EPFM) and Method of Moments (MOM). The average of Weibull parameters was used to incorporate survival probability into stress (S)-fatigue life (N) relationships. Based on the Weibull theory, as single and double logarithm fatigue equations for RCA and NA under different survival probability were provided. The results revealed that, by considering 0.9 level survival probability, the theoretical stress level corresponding to a fatigue failure number equal to one million cycle, decreases by 8.77% (calculated using single-logarithm fatigue equation) and 6.62% (calculated using double logarithm fatigue equation) in RCA when compared to NA concrete.

• 한국해양공학회지
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.64-69
• /
• 2004

The characteristics of the probability distribution for mechanical properties, e.g. tensile strength, reduction of area, and elongation, for STS304 stainless steel in elevated temperature are investigated. Tensile test is performed by constant crosshead speed controls with 1mm/min. The probability distribution function of measured mechanical properties seems to follow $\alpha$ 3-parameter Weibull, and shows a slight dependence on the temperature. When the temperature is raised, the shape parameter a is increased, but both the scale parameter $\beta$ and location parameter v are decreased.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• 제23권1호
• /
• pp.75-90
• /
• 2016

A probabilistic approach that combines structural demand hazard analysis with cumulative damage assessment is presented and applied to a steel tower of a wind turbine. The study presents the step by step procedure to compare the reliability over time of the structure subjected to fatigue, assuming: a) a binomial Weibull annual wind speed, and b) a traditional Weibull probability distribution function (PDF). The probabilistic analysis involves the calculation of force time simulated histories, fatigue analysis at the steel tower base, wind hazard curves and structural fragility curves. Differences in the structural reliability over time depending on the wind speed PDF assumed are found, and recommendations about selecting a real PDF are given.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국소음진동공학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회논문집
• /
• pp.1493-1510
• /
• 2000

Theoretical models that can be used to predict the range of main lobe widths and the probability distribution of the peak sidelobe levels of two-dimensionally sparse arrays are presented here. The arrays are considered to comprise microphones that are randomly positioned on a segmented grid of a given size. First, approximate expressions for the expected squared magnitude of the aperture smoothing function and the variance of the squared magnitude of the aperture smoothing function about this mean are formulated for the random arrays considered in the present study. By using the variance function, the mean value and the lower end of the range i.e., the first I percent of the mainlobe distribution can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. To predict the probability distribution of the peak sidelobe levels, distributions of levels are modeled by a Weibull distribution at each peak in the sidelobe region of the expected squared magnitude of the aperture smoothing function. The two parameters of the Weibull distribution are estimated from the means and variances of the levels at the corresponding locations. Next, the probability distribution of the peak sidelobe levels are assumed to be determined by a procedure in which the peak sidelobe level is determined as the maximum among a finite number of independent random sidelobe levels. It is found that the model obtained from the above approach predicts the probability density function of the peak sidelobe level distribution reasonably well for the various combinations of two different numbers of microphones and grid sizes tested in the present study. The application of these models to the design of random, sparse arrays having specified performance levels is also discussed.

• 한국농림기상학회지
• /
• 제19권3호
• /
• pp.130-139
• /
• 2017

기상청 동네예보 풍속으로부터 농작물의 강풍피해를 예측하기 위해, 방재기상관측지점 19곳의 2012년 풍속자료를 이용하여 기상청 동네예보의 3시간 간격과 동일한 0000, 0300 ${\cdots}$ 2100 시간대의 풍속과 직전 3시간 동안의 최대풍속 간의 관계를 직선회귀식으로 표현하였다. 매 3시간 마다 추정된 최대풍속 중 가장 큰 값을 일 최대풍속으로 간주하고, 이 때의 추정오차를 정규분포와 Weibull 분포 확률밀도함수로 표현하였다. 또한 일 최대풍속과 작물 피해 임계풍속 간의 편차를 추정오차 기반 확률 분포에 적용하여 확률누적값으로 풍해 '주의보'와 '경보' 단계를 설정하였다. 19지점별 최대풍속 추정 회귀계수(a, b)와 추정오차의 표준편차 및 Weibull 분포의 모수(${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$)는 공간내삽하여 분포도로 작성하고 종관기상관측지점 4곳(순천, 남원, 임실, 장수)의 격자값을 추출하였다. 이를 이용해 2012년의 일 최대풍속을 추정하고, 배 만삼길 품종의 낙과 발생 사례에서 제시된 풍속 10m/s를 낙과 임계풍속으로 간주, 풍해 주의보와 경보를 판정하였다. 그 결과, 최대풍속 추정오차를 Weibull 분포로 표현하여 풍해 위험 정도를 판정하는 것이 정규분포만을 이용하는 것보다 더 현장에 정확한 주의보를 발령할 수 있었다.